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Diery Seck ACRIA 4, Abidjan, 4 June 2013 What is the right design for an ECOWAS Common Currency Union ? Precursors for idea of regional currency ◦ Kwame Nkrumah (Ghana) ◦ Cheikh Anta Diop (Senegal) UEMOA & CEMAC Lagos Plan of Action NEPAD UEMOA/CEMAC Eastern Caribbean Currency Area (ECCA) European Monetary Union (EMU) A few bilateral adoptions of foreign currencies: Euro by Cape Verde US Dollar by Bahamas, Bermuda, Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador Swiss Franc by Liechtenstein Create the West Africa Monetary Zone: WAMZ (Non-CFA countries minus Cape Verde): => Currency: The ECO Later merge WAMZ and UEMOA => New Single Currency BUT CONSIDERABLE DELAY IN CREATING The ECO (April 2000 to July 2013: 13 years, No significant progress) Countries with fixed peg with EURO - UEMOA: 8 (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte Ivoire, G. Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, Togo - Non-UEMOA: 1 Cape Verde => 9 countries pegged to Euro, same monetary target: maintain stability of fixed exchange rate with Euro Countries with flexible exchange rates: 6=WAMZ - Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone Basic Statistics of ECOWAS Countries (IC # 2) # Country GDP, Mln US $ Area (Sq. KM) Population % of total GDP Cumulated % 1 Nigeria 91,957.59 923,770 162,470,737 62.7 62.7 2 C. d'Ivoire 11,048.45 322,460 20,152,894 7.5 70.3 3 Ghana 10,053.62 238,540 24,965,816 6.9 77.1 4 Senegal 7,149.43 196,720 12,767,556 4.9 82.0 5 B. Faso 4,849.46 274,220 16,967,845 3.3 85.3 6 Mali 4,313.25 1,240,190 15,839,538 2.9 88.3 7 Guinea 4,028.57 245,860 10,221,808 2.7 91.0 8 Benin 3,440.24 112,620 9,099,922 2.3 93.4 9 Niger 2,845.16 1,267,000 16,068,994 1.9 95.3 10 Togo 1,680.93 56,790 6,154,813 1.1 96.5 11 S. Leone 1,668.76 71,740 5,997,486 1.1 97.6 12 Liberia 1,152.78 111,370 4,128,572 0.8 98.4 “Inertia” in switching UEMOA countries to ECOWAS CCU (UEMOA works!) Different country sizes and economic structures may mean different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy High degree of political instability: Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, etc. CB autonomy: Financing of fiscal deficit Table 3. Fiscal Deficit Financed by Central Bank as Percentage of Fiscal Revenues of Previous Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011** Benin 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Burkina Faso 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cape Verde 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Côte d’Ivoire 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 The Gambia 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.9 13.7 54.6 54.6 Ghana 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 0.0 34.9 0.0 Guinea -8.8 54.0 0.0 5.8 38.7 91.0 4.3 Guinea Bissau 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Liberia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mali 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Niger 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Senegal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sierra Leone 0.0 13.3 0.8 0.3 18.6 37.6 37.6 Togo 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Volatility of Prices, Exports and GDP of ECOWAS Countries (2000 - 20 (Standard deviation of variables) Country Benin Burkina Faso Cote d'Ivoire Guinea Bissau Mali Niger Senegal Togo Average UEMOA Gambia Ghana Guinea Liberia Nigeria Sierra Leone Average WAMZ Cape Verde Inflation (GDP deflator) 2.4 3.3 2.5 27.2 4.5 2.5 2.2 6.2 6.4 4.9 18.7 10.7 9.3 12.4 6.4 10.4 2.3 Annual change of Exports in Constant US Dollars 14.8 22.3 13.0 28.2 15.8 13.8 11.1 13.9 16.6 26.6 19.9 16.1 27.9 44.6 27.0 25.4 Annual change o Growth in Const Dollars 2.5 4.8 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.4 4.8 2.8 3.6 5.3 5.1 11.4 16.8 7.6 9.0 9.2 3.9 Architecture of the Monetary Union: 6 tasks Architecture of the Central Bank: 10+ tasks 1. 2. 3. 4. Is ECOWAS an Optimal Currency Area (OCA)? What are the welfare gains? What type of union is suitable given context? What criteria to use for selection of members and what is the right sequencing of admission? Which countries should be admitted initially? Role and status of non-members Level and management of reserves 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Choice of Anchor Choice of Target Choice of Instruments Exchange rate regime Nominal Exchange rate at entry 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Governance & Independence of CB Supervision & Regulatory powers Fiscal prerogatives Dual currency transition period Existence and strength of secondary CB objectives Methodology of Lee and Barro (2011) - Strong trade and financial integration - High level of inflation - High co-movement of prices and output among member countries - Speedy adjustment to shocks - Political proximity among members - Welfare gains from monetary union OPTION 1: Extended UEMOA PROS: - Well functioning design - Pre-existing Guarantee and Anchor - Reliable Anchor: EURO CONS: - New entrants unlikely to accept terms - European CB may not approve it - France and Portugal may not extend guarantee of convertibility to new members - UEMOA countries may not accept welfare costs of CCU Reject it OPTION 2: Merger of WAMZ and UEMOA PROS: - Fast track agenda - Two unions of comparable sizes to negotiate CONS: - WAMZ does not exist after 13 years - High transactions costs (WAMZ, UEMOA merger negotiations) - Perception of high cost for UEMOA (Nigerian monetary union with tiny members) - What happens to WAMZ if merger talks fail? OPTION 3: Immediate creation of new currency PROS: CONS: - Clean slate = free design w/o inertia Fast track, low transactions costs Reduce dependence on fate of EURO UEMOA & Cape Verde may lose EURO guarantee of convertibility - How to cope with price, output and export volatility of WAMZ countries - Lack of gradualism of process ( Probability of error, failure) REASON:1) Most obstacles are institutional, 2) Immediate creation: All countries on same side (political will) METHOD: Selection of some member countries (not all) Based on ECOWAS nominal convergence criteria (WAMA) Need to minimize negotiations and transactions costs Maximize the % of ECOWAS economy and population in first phase of CCU (CCU representative from start) Fiscal deficit (w/o grants) / GDP ≤ 4% Inflation rate ≤ 5% Fiscal deficit financed by CB / Fiscal revenues of previous year ≤ 10% (Does not apply to UEMOA) Gross reserves ≥ 6 months of imports (Does not apply to UEMOA countries) Domestic and Foreign arrears = 0 Fiscal revenues / GDP ≥ 20% Government payroll / Fiscal revenues ≤ 35% Public investments / Fiscal revenues ≥ 20% Real interest rates > 0% Stability of real exchange rates: ± 5% AVERAGE NOMINAL CONVERGENCE INDICATORS FOR ECOWAS COUNTRIES ACTUAL VALUES (Mean 2008-2010) Fisc. Def/GDP Inflation rate BENIN BURKINA FASO CAPE VERDE COTE D'IVOIRE THE GAMBIA GHANA GUINEA GUINEA BISSAU LIBERIA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL SIERRA LEONE TOGO UEMOA WAMZ ECOWAS 4.4 12.3 12.9 2.3 5.9 11.8 7.6 16.5 1.5 7.4 8.7 2.4 7.3 10.2 4.0 5.9 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.1 3.3 4.6 5.1 14.2 14.1 3.2 8.6 3.7 3.8 13.6 1.6 14.0 3.4 3.8 13.7 10.3 Fisc. Rev. / GDP 16.0 15.3 23.1 16.8 13.3 18.2 14.8 6.8 20.1 14.3 12.9 13.0 18.4 9.1 15.4 16.6 13.4 14.5 Gov. Pay / Pub. Inv. / Rev. Revenue 42.1 44.8 45.7 41.5 36.3 52.5 33.2 83.6 35.2 34.6 28.7 34.2 32.8 60.2 35.8 38.0 35.9 36.6 28.0 49.3 2.1 13.2 14.5 23.7 35.3 6.3 11.3 22.1 34.9 31.0 33.1 22.4 16.0 24.8 30.4 28.3 AVERAGE NOMINAL CONVERGENCE INDICATORS (2008-10) FOR ECOWAS COUNTRIES RANKING OF ECOWAS COUNTRIES: NOMINAL CONVERGENCE CRITERIA Fisc. Fisc. Rev. / Gov. Pay / Pub. Inv. / Def/GDP Inflation rate GDP Rev. Reve. BENIN B. FASO C. VERDE C. D'IVOIRE GAMBIA GHANA GUINEA GUINEA BISSAU LIBERIA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL S. LEONE TOGO TOTAL RANKS Country total Overall Ranking 5 13 14 2 6 12 9 6 2 4 9 10 15 14 6 8 1 5 11 4 9 10 11 12 9 8 13 3 6 1 15 12 11 7 2 33 35 46 37 46 51 37 2 5 11 8 11 13 8 15 1 8 10 3 7 11 4 3 11 7 8 12 1 13 5 15 2 10 13 12 3 14 7 15 6 5 1 4 2 14 7 14 13 9 3 5 4 8 10 62 33 39 35 36 17 60 33 15 2 10 5 7 1 14 2 120 120 120 120 120 600 UEMOA members (8) Cape Verde (virtual UEMOA member) Liberia Nigeria 88.3% of ECOWAS GDP (2011) 86.1% of ECOWAS population Status of members-in-waiting Informal monetary arrangement with variable nominal exchange rate around equilibrium rate with CCU Currency “Snake” Strong cooperation with CCU authorities Over time the Band within the Snake is narrower Finally we have a fixed exchange rate and membership into the CCU. Pooling of foreign reserves: UEMOA model of “Compte d‘opérations” Avoidance of moral hazard and control of Nigeria size factor (NRIF) Solidarity reserves from non-members UEMOA model of “Compte d’opérations”: - All national reserves pooled into one joint CB account - National contributions recorded separately; free access to one’s own reserves - Possibility for a country to “borrow” from the joint account (stepped up interest rates) No CB monetization of national government fiscal deficits (use debt market instead) National sovereign borrowing and sovereign foreign debt guarantee are capped Mandatory level of national reserves varies and is function of volatility of each national economy (see Table on volatility) Creation of the Nigeria Reserve Insurance Fund (NRIF) in addition to regular reserves STRUCTURAL (LONG TERM) Solidarity reserves from non-members :Issuance by CB of non-interest bearing, Long Term Bonds in Foreign denomination TEMPORARY RELIEF MECHANISM Foreign reserve swaps and other facilities to discourage speculative attacks and stockpile of foreign reserves Design & operations with first members: 5 years Completion of CCU and full membership: 10 years