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Clean energy transition of the EU Green power means in the international system MA Thesis in European Studies European Policy Studies Graduate School of Humanities University of Amsterdam Author: BA Tomas Hos Main supervisor: Prof. dr. Jamal Shahin Second supervisor: Mr. dr. Anne van Wageningen February 2014 I would like to thank my supervisor Prof. dr. Jamal Shahin for his willingness to provide me with his valuable guidance, critical input and support throughout writing this thesis. I would also like to thank Evert van Dijk, Jos Schoutsen, Corina Negru and my family for their constant support during my whole studies. Table of contents Introduction .........................................................................................................................................................................1 1. Neorealist theory ...........................................................................................................................................................4 2. EU’s external governance...........................................................................................................................................8 2.1. CPE, NPE and Neorealist critique ...................................................................................................................8 2.2. External energy governance.......................................................................................................................... 13 3: Clean energy development..................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1. Sustainability and climate change .............................................................................................................. 21 3.2. Energy security ................................................................................................................................................... 29 3.3. Competitiveness, growth and employment ............................................................................................ 31 3.4. Internal legitimacy ............................................................................................................................................ 34 3.5. Coherence ............................................................................................................................................................. 35 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................................................... 39 Introduction The energy sector in Europe is undergoing a great transformation. Although its form and pace may differ per Member State, it cannot go unnoticed by the average European citizen. Conventional ways of energy generation based on fossil fuels are abandoned as the European Union moves towards a cleaner, more efficient and more sustainable energy sector. Examples of this change are demonstrated by the construction of large off-shore wind parks by Denmark and Netherlands, solar-panel installation in the Mediterranean countries and ocean-wave energy experimentation in Scotland and some regions of the Sahara have been projected to supply the EU with clean energy from a network of photovoltaic fields. The Netherlands and the UK develop Carbon Capture and Storage, a new generation of highly efficient coal power plants with minimal climate pollution. Most post-2004 EU Member States gradually marginalise their old coal-based energy sector and replace it with low-carbon sources. Some of them prefer nuclear power, whereas Germany has adopted a contrary strategy, opting to phase-out its nuclear energy sector and substitute it with gas, coal and renewables. New international high-voltage transmission lines have been built throughout the continent, both above and below ground, and in some cases through the laying of submarine cable. Through the entire Union, biofuels are used as a CO2-neutral fuel and unconventional shale gas has become an actively discussed topic. Because of this new outlook, individual Europeans have been made aware of their own obligation vis-à-vis clean energy and conservation, resulting in, for example, improvements in home insulation and the adoption of low-energy bulbs. Hybrid and electric cars are generously subsidised and electricity rechargers are becoming more commonplace at petrol stations. Even though it may not be apparent at first sight, all of these developments are closely related to the EU’s policy-making. Referring to the unsustainability of conventional energy generation and economic growth, it is the EU which moves Europe towards more sustainability, efficiency, wealth, social cohesion and security. To this end the Commission enacts legislation intended to spur the Member States towards promoting and promulgating the transition process. Probably the largest and most ambitious legislative bundle on energy produced by the EU institutions thus far has been the Climate and Energy Package of 2009. The EU integrates climate change mitigation into its energy policies resulting in stringent CO2 targets and deployment of a new energy infrastructure. The strictness of the legislation is usually explained by the alarming state of global climate, but also as a consequence of the EU’s international commitments. The EU claims to lead the world by example towards more a sustainable future, demonstrating which domestic changes must take place and how they should be carried out. The beginning of this universal commitment was the Kyoto Conference in 1997, and recently, in 2009 the EU reasserted its global commitment at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference. To translate the strong words to reality, the EU designed long-term strategies, frameworks and indicative targets. The Climate and Energy Package comprises a significant part of this approach. There is no doubt that Europe needs such a far-reaching strategy. The energy sector based on fossil-fuel combustion is unsustainable from many points of view. Negative effects of greenhouse gases emissions on the environment and climate, as well as the legitimate threat of fossil fuels depletion are only two of them. However, these are not new conclusions. This gives rise to the question as to why the Commission has so latterly embraced clean energy as a primary policy. It 1 could be explained by innovative technological advancement enabling better clean energy development; or by greater popular awareness of the damage wreaked on the environment under the old fuel supply, and the subsequent revelations of ozone damage and climatic warming. There can be little doubt that these motivations were complemented by the political manipulation and the attractiveness to politicians of being on the clean energy bandwagon. It must be asked if this noble defence of the public good inculcated in them fortitude to pursue this policy to conclusion. If clean energy was convenient for the EU policy makers and high politics, it was strengthened by the fact that there no longer was a reliance on the support of the presumed enlightenment and normative responsibility of the elites and lobby groups. This thesis elaborates on this critical view and focuses on the external advantage of the clean energy transition. It concentrates on positive implications of the EU’s normative clean energy strategy to its international position and external leverage. This expounds on the EU’s fervent dedication to clean energy pursuance and presenting it as the most correct philosophy of life. Within these parameters, the central inquiry of this thesis is how the clean energy transition can serve the EU as a means to enhance its position vis-à-vis the other players of the international system. The thesis starts with the hypothesis claiming that clean energy development serves as a tool to enhance the EU’s external leverage. It presumes that even though the EU can be still seen as a strong political bloc with considerable external leverage, its influence over other countries has had a declining tendency. The EU’s civilian and normative tools instituted to realise its objective appear to be partially ineffective. The energy sector shows how significant this ineffectiveness can be. The preponderance of power remains in the energy-producing countries as a result of which these countries are prevailingly resistant to the EU’s normative governance. Moreover, future prospects do not promise any substantial alteration of this trend, unless the EU finds a way to accumulate more power capabilities over such countries. The hypothesis claims that the current energy transition serves the EU as a means to address the EU’s power loss. Clean energy can introduce new sources of power over the other members of the international system and limit power those members have over the EU. As a result, the EU should be better equipped for its pursuit of external normative governance and realising its goals. Concerning the structure of the thesis, the argument is developed along three main chapters. The first chapter outlines the theoretical framework of the argumentation. The tone of the hypothesis might have already indicated that the thesis is backed by the Neorealist theory of international relations. The chapter explains the origins and evolution of Neorealism, but also its suitability for this research. The second chapter pursues the EU’s external governance as a normative power (NPE), summarises the scientific debate on this topic and offers an evaluation of the NPE’s effectiveness, particularly vis-à-vis some energy exporting countries, with which the EU intensely maintains economic and political relations. The chapter reveals the NPE’s ineffectiveness in external dissemination of its values and norms, thus realising its self-regarding interests. The last, third chapter further elaborates on the hypothetic argument by presenting the EU’s ‘green’ and clean energy policies as a means to enhance the NPE’s external leverage. It dismisses the power neutrality of the norms of clean energy and climate change mitigation and points out that the energy policies based on climate change mitigation are power-loaded and serve the EU’s self-regarding interest. Concretely, the chapter builds upon the following sources of international power and legitimisation derived from the clean energy transition: international policy leadership and its legitimacy, energy security, competitiveness and job creation, multi-level coherence in policy preferences and the EU’s internal legitimacy. 2 This thesis aims to contribute to the scientific debate concerning the EU’s normative external governance. It responds to the argument by Ian Manners (2002) that the EU can be considered as a power exerting influence through the ability of establishing norms, being in line with universal human values and intended to protect and defend global public goods. This thesis concurs with the EU’s discursive power capability and the universalist background, but challenges the purity of the global and public goods mission as the EU’s primary aim. In this case, this thesis claims that the EU’s normative approach in international relations is a tool to pursue its self-regarding interest, thus ensuring its own security. The argument of this research is inspired by a considerable amount of articles and other publication dedicated to the study of the EU’s external governance, energy security and clean energy transition. The following reflects the variety of authors and other sources consulted. Jan Orbie (University of Ghent) and Richard Youngs (FRIDE) in particular outline the main framework of the EU’s external action in general and in energy respectively. Both authors also offer some evaluative conclusions on the EU’s normativity in external action, which is a key part of the second chapter. Richard Youngs (FRIDE) and Sijbren de Jong (EU-GRASP, HCSS also focus on normativity in the EU’s external energy governance. Edith Vande Brande, (University of Ghent), Sebastian Oberthür (IES/VUB) and Louise van Schaik (Clingendael) provide a critical analysis of the EU’s climate and clean energy leadership and policies, and emphasise their positive implications for other policy areas and European integration. Paragraphs concerning the securitisation of climate change and its consequences to the EU’s external relations are based on Berry Buzan’s theory of securitisation (Copenhagen School). In return, this thesis offers a contribution to these scientific works by proving the power function in the EU’s green Kantian norms of sustainable development and climate change mitigation. In addition, next to scientific debates, the thesis makes use of several newsletters, various policy briefs of external think-tanks and research institutes, EU’s official documents and three interviews conducted with high representatives either from the EU institutional setting or at the Member State level (Lithuania). These interviews were made during the period of winter and spring 2013, when Lithuania was presiding the European Council, when it was concerned about Russia’s strategic and energy approach towards the Baltic region, while the EU was pushing through further legislation on renewables and the energy transition and faced an imminent price war with China with respect to photovoltaic panels. Interview transcripts are available on the occasion of a request at the author. This research discloses that the EU’s pursuit of Kantian normative governance in the form of energy transition serves the EU’s self-regarding interest. Clean or ‘green’ energy rather contributes to the maintenance or even enhancement of the EU’s external leverage as a complement to its altruistic disguise. Therefore, energy policy, irrespective of its ‘colour’ continues to be a matter of realist and strategic consideration rather than a product of the EU’s Kantian self-awareness. Clean energy and power are inseparable. 3 1. Neorealist theory Policy and decision-making are extremely difficult and opaque processes, resulting from diverse interests, assumptions, compromises, constraining factors and other influences. When applied to the international politics, its complexity becomes even more intense, since local occurrences and developments can engender significant external repercussions while distant occurrences can in turn have serious impact domestically. In this study, a relationship between international power politics on the one hand and EU’s internal ‘green’ energy policies on the other is approached through Neorealist perspective. Consequently, the main aim of this section is, firstly, to introduce Neorealism in terms of its background, main laws and assumptions and, secondly, to establish its suitability to this research topic. Theories are a key tool in social sciences. They are mentally formed collections or sets of assumed laws pertaining to particular behaviour or phenomenon. Theories are constructed speculative and simplified processes arisen through inductive generalisation, abstraction, isolation, aggregation and idealisation, in order to identify the central tendency among a confusion of many other tendencies. Since theories describe only a part of reality, they are distinct from the reality they concern (Waltz 1979: 2, 5-10). In other words, theories construct a reality, but no one can say that it is the reality. Most importantly, theories have not only descriptive, but also explanatory and predictive powers; theories reveal and rationalise continuities both retrospectively and prospectively. The extent to which these powers are corroborated by empirical proofs determines the usefulness of a concerned theory. So, when applied to the study of international relations, theories claim to be able to elucidate actors’ past, current and future actors’ behaviour, interactions and other processes within a system where international relations are enacted (Waltz 1979: 69). Neorealism gradually appeared in the 1970s as a revision of an old-fashioned Realist approach. Realism has a long history of being a dominant conception of international relations, as it was first applied already in antiquity. According to the Realist school, a limited number of poles, i.e. dominant unitary states or blocs, are rational actors, which interact with each other in an endemically hostile, anarchic and decentralised system. Their raison d’être is first to survive and subsequently to preserve their integrity, by means of acquisition of as many power as possible, to exert as much influence as possible. The amount of power is directly related to state’s behaviour and probability of survival in international anarchy. So, according to Realists, conceptualised power is both a means and an end in itself for a state. Ideally, security should be guaranteed by obtaining a hegemonic position and imposing hierarchy to be able to exercise power over rivals. Such a position may be reached also by military means. Another way to reach security in the system is an effective balancing of revisionist (expanding) states by skilful manipulation of opposition alliances. Overall, following from Hobbes’ homo homini lupus, Realists argue that states are primarily self-interested and egoistic, and their existence is a rational consequence of the principle of self-help, taking place in an anarchic environment of conflict and competition (Schweller and Priess 1997: 6-7). Nonetheless, Realism has been criticised by many international relations scientists (Mearsheimer, Gilpin, Katzenstein and Layne) in particular for inconsistency and insufficiency in methodological compactness. The greatest revision so far has been conducted by Kenneth N. Waltz’s contribution to the scientific debate on the validity of Realism. Having anatomised the 4 methodology of classical Realism, Waltz agreed on the basic attributes of international actors – the states are unitary entities, driven by great security concerns and adversarially interacting in an environment of anarchy. Nevertheless, Waltz argued that the old-fashion realist explanation of actors’ behaviour was insufficient. Consequently, Waltz’s introduced structures, integral components of the international system exercising power over individual actors, thus affecting their behaviour. The structures arise from interaction between actors, number of these actors, their position in the international anarchy or hierarchy and their individual size and possession of other capabilities. However, the structures remain extrinsic to actors. The processes of socialisation of states and competition among them are the paramount structures (Waltz 1979: 2, 73-74). Moreover, crucially, Waltz (1979: 73-74) claims that structure designates a set of constraining conditions. Such a structure acts as a selector (…). Freely formed economic markets and international-political structures are selectors, but they are not agents. Because structures select by rewarding some behaviors and punishing others, outcomes cannot be inferred from intentions and behaviors. Further, ‘structures are defined not by all of the actors that flourish within them but by the major ones’ (Waltz 1979: 93) i.e. poles or states which are able to recurrently exert some power over other states in fields of a strategic interest. This all implies that states’ outcomes cannot be perfectly rational, such as Realists asserted. Waltz compares the international-political structures with market structures, such as prices, market standards, fashion, company’s size and know-how etc.: ‘[j]ust as economists define markets in terms of firms, so I define internationalpolitical structures in terms of states’ (Waltz 1979, 94). Overall, international structures emerge from the interaction of great states and, subsequently, they constrain actors of the system from taking certain actions whereas it propels them toward others (Waltz 1979; Evans and Newham 1998: 30; Gilpin 1986: 301-321). As mentioned above, in an international system, actors interact by means of permanent tension. However, this conflict atmosphere does not necessarily need to be understood as confrontation by force. The mutual hostility driven by the struggle for survival and fear for rival’s relative advancement can be also expressed as an endless competition. The subject of competition are relative gains of capabilities, such as military and economic possessions, natural endowment, population and territory size, and geopolitical position but also intangible attributes such as actual polity, internal coherence and stability, bureaucratic struggles and other internal processes, moral, discipline, productivity, levels of technology, research and development, etc. The capabilities gathered, reached and built determine the position of their proprietors vis-à-vis other actors in the system. Therefore, redistribution of capabilities has a direct influence on states’ mutual positions and balance of power among them. Since states interact through endless competition, they are oriented to acquiring relative gains rather than absolute, long-term gains (Waltz 1979: 119, 131; Evans and Newham 1998: 8). Moreover, cooperation between states appears only when gains with respect to certain others in terms of security, wealth and stability are expected to be generated. Cooperation, however, is difficult to be reached since states consider cooperation as a kind of interdependence. Being interdependent or even dependent is perceived as a great vulnerability - states are exposed to the possibility of existential failure and extinction. However, cooperation is sometimes inevitable, e.g. due to international trade and balancing alliance cooperation, occurrence of some collective threat or a hegemon etc. Yet, even within this cooperative framework, states look to constrain each other’s gains, being primarily interested in maximizing their own profits and 5 minimalizing dangers to themselves. Overall, states in international systems , firstly, seek to develop the greatest comparative advantage vis-à-vis others through accumulation of capabilities and, secondly, strive to have the smallest gap in the possession of capabilities with respect to others, such as firms do on the market. (Waltz 1979: 65-70, 82, 97, 102, 106; Evans and Newham 1998: 8; Collard-Wexler 2006: 400-406) Such a perspective on cooperation is one of the main sources for many critics of Neorealism, one of which is liberal institutionalism. Next to the notion of cooperation, its criticisms is focused on the narrow-minded and insufficient definition of actors and their raison d’être. Liberal institutionalists assert that even though states are dominant actors of the international system, they are not the only agents. Aside from them, different public and private agencies, trade unions, political parties, supranational and international bureaucracies, multinationals etc. interact with each other too, from which the structure arises. Further, these actors are not either unitary or rational and the authority inside them is decentralised. Actors’ purpose of being is not only power or security, but also economic growth, welfare accumulation and civic stability. Another point which makes Neorealists and liberal institutionalists irreconcilable rivals, is the perception of international institutions. Neorealists ascribe no major role to institutions in the system and cooperation is understood as negative interdependence leading to unsafe vulnerability. By contrast, liberal institutionalists are convinced that institutions successfully act to promote cooperation and that interdependence is advantageous, because costs of cooperation appear to be lower than costs of non-cooperation. Liberal institutionalists’ greatest proof against Neorealism is the paradigm of the West-European cooperation after the World War II. Overall, liberal institutionalists argue that Neorealism fails to explain the logics of European integration having so far resulted in European Union – why would that all happen if cooperation, integration and interdependence were so threatening? (Grieko 1988: 488-503) Naturally, some Realists have reacted on liberal institutionalism’s criticism. For example, Grieco (1988: 505-507) reasserts the importance of relative gains, which constrain any kind of perfect cooperation. So, he opposes the neoliberalists’ assumption that gains are acquired through common endeavour. He states that if states cooperate, they are concerned about durability of joint actions, number of participants, issue linkages etc., in order to minimise relative gains of their colleagues or to minimise their own relative losses with respect to others. Further, Simon Collard-Wexler (2006: 400-406) admits that Neorealism may seem to have been disproved by the European integration on the one hand, but on the other, he asserts that Europe can find itself in a temporary transition, whose consequence will be the formation of a new unitary, centralised and rational actor having its security and preservation as the primary objective. The establishment of the new world power Europe can be explained as a necessary self-help reaction on the emergence of the fully anarchic multilateral and subsequently multipolar order, where no geopolitical bipolarity guarantees relative stable position and security of the European continent. Europe will have overcome its ontological limbo and internal incoherence and it will fulfil the role of a postmodern great power, balancing Russia, USA, China or any other superpower through competition and alliances. It will be equipped with great political, economic and military power means, being derived from Europe’s capabilities, such as great population, vast territory, natural endowment but also R&D advancements and post-modern, value-based governance. The process of EU’s Internal Market can be seen as contributing to the emergence of such Europe. This research is inspired by this forecast, being reflected in the Neorealist interpretation adopted in this study. 6 Furthermore, Criekemans (2011: 88-91) states, we are currently witnessing a great geopolitical shift being represented by the on-going clean energy transition. Fossil fuels are being gradually replaced by renewables and this entails enhancements in power and economic leverage of some geopolitical regions on the one hand and leverage deteriorations of some other poles on the other. New clean energy leaders are being moulded as a consequence of natural resources endowment and intensity of capital investments leading to technology improvements, being facilitated by the presence of leading companies in the energy sector. Hence, already today’s stance towards the issues of clean energy will have great consequences to the allocation of power in the future. Consequently, if any pole aims to preserve its leading position or any other actor aspires to enhance its position, serious commitments to clean energy development are now necessary. Even more importantly, if any actor of the international system intends to become the future leader in energy, a leadership in the present clean energy development is crucial. And if any pole intends to become an overall leader in the future, leadership in energy is an important capability facilitating the fulfilment of this ambition. Such an interpretation corresponds with the Neorealist approach, which, too, justifies the choice of a Neorealist theory in this study. Aside from the rational accounts, such as Neorealism, however, some Constructivist approaches claim to explain the process of international relations. According to the Constructivists, actors’ behaviour and their mutual interactions are not purely rational. Rather, they are consequences of preceding decisions and processes, and directly influenced or even determined by mutable norms, ideas, beliefs, values and identities. In this way, actors do not have absolute control over their own behaviour. So, differences between Realisms and Constructivism are substantial: ‘[w]hile some Constructivists would accept that States are self-interested, rational actors, they would stress that varying identities and beliefs belie the simplistic notions of rationality under which States simply pursue survival, power, or wealth’ (Slaughter 2011: 4) Due to the complexity of influencing factors, the strength of Constructivist approaches lies mainly in its explanatory dimension. Realisms, on contrary, seem to perform more satisfactory in terms of anticipatory qualities based on Hobbesian assumptions of human nature (Slaughter 2011). Since this study aims to understand the future consequences of the current decision making, irrespective of their likely preceding and subsequent dynamics, the Neorealist theory appears to be more suitable for fulfilling the anticipatory objective of this research. Overall, this methodological chapter has offered a comprehensive introduction to the Neorealist theory applied in this study. Firstly, the background, basic laws and assumptions of Neorealism have been concerned. Neorealism has been represented as a predominantly rational theory, where security concerns and extrinsic structures play dominant roles. Secondly, main criticisms of Neorealism, such as Liberal Institutionalism and the Constructivist accounts were regarded. However, finally, some defensive and revisionist reactions on these criticisms demonstrated that Neorealism is, still, a suitable approach for this study: Neorealism seems to be able to explain and predict the long-term consequences of the EU internal policy-making on energy in the context of global international system to a satisfactory extent. The next chapter analyses the discourse of the EU external governance, depicting the energy sector as an anomaly to the general discourse of the EU external governance. 7 2. EU’s external governance The European Union is nowadays perceived as a major actor in the international system. The European flag can be spotted on all continents and in nearly all countries of the world. The presence of the EU is usually disguised as international trade, political delegation, projects of the promotion of democracy, humanitarian aid, sustainable development, peacekeeping and others. Hence, traditionally, the EU is described as a postmodern and pacifistic power, representing and disseminating universal norms and values while excluding any kind of coercion in is external activities. Nevertheless, recently, a lot of attention has been paid to the process of securitisation, which clearly deviates from the EU’s appearance as a soft power. Elaborating on this, this chapter is divided in two sections. Firstly, the basics of the EU’s external governance concept will be outlined, focusing on EU’s civilian and normative character. Subsequently, drawing from the preceding chapter, it will be exposed to some realistic criticisms, emphasising EU’s interests in its security and historical preservation. The second part comprises an analysis of EU’s external governance in energy, discussing both the civilian and normative assumption and Realist criticisms. In this section, it will be argues that the EU’s external energy governance does not comply with the Kantian governance assumptions, since its sense of raison d’être is derived from realistic security concerns. Last but not least, following from the preceding two subsections, a hypothesis will be revealed EU’s difficulties in external energy governance and current clean energy discourse. 2.1. CPE, NPE and Neorealist critique The roots of current external governance of the EU begin about 70 years ago. The emergence and consequences of the Second World War demonstrated that the Westphalian state order on the European continent did not function well anymore. Having experienced the bloodsheds of the first half of the 20th century, Europe needed a profound change of its approach to international relations and foreign affairs. The old-fashioned system of self-centred nation states, whose sense of raison d’être was to ensure their existential security to themselves, was seen as an indispensable cause of the rivalry atmosphere on the European continent, which had so often sublimed to open violence. As a result of this new awareness, federalists, neo-functionalists inter alia believed that the discredited Westphalian order had to be dismantled and substituted by a new comprehension of international system.1 Its focus had to be directed to multidimensional progression through peaceful and non-coercive governance, derived from among others Immanuel Kant’s human universalism and cosmopolitanism. (Stevens and Sakwa 2005: 36-42; Keukeleire and MacNaughtan 2008: 8-9; Orbie 2009a: 6) One of the most influential concepts of foreign affairs based on Kantian assumptions was developed in the 1970s by François Duchêne (1973). Even though he has never developed a complete theory, he believed that Western Europe had evolved into a new ‘civilian’ power. According to Duchêne, Europe, having learned from its own tradition and history, distanced itself from the traditional power politics and, instead, adhered to ‘civilised’ and amilitary governance, based on multilateralism and cooperation, realised through economic, diplomatic 1 The eastern part of Europe was omitted from this process due to its orientation towards the USSR. 8 and institutional means (Twitchett 1976; Hill 1990). Security concerns would become secondary to the promotion of a stable, non-divisive, non-argumentative international environment, beneficial to all parties. Furthermore, human equality, justice, tolerance, interest for the poor abroad and other characteristics derived from core European values have become important elements of Europe’s external activities, thus diffusing EU standards internationally. In this way, the Union committed to disseminating what it perceived to be universal, public goods (Keukeleire and MacNaughtan 2008: 21). Overall, as Vasilyan (2007: 4) put it, Civilian Power Europe (CPE) defines the EU’s nature, function, role, behaviour and narrative, all of which are based on the Kantian universalist discourse. Similarly, Ian Manners (2002) introduced his own concept of a Kantian Europe – Normative Power Europe (NPE) by analysing Europe’s foreign affairs also from a value-based perspective. Although Manners agrees on the most basic assumptions about CPE, he complements it by citing the EU’s ability to construct norms in the international system through exerting discursive power over opinion and ideas. In this way he has tried to move the debate from considerations on EU’s international identity towards discussions on EU’s constructivist capabilities (Manners 2002: 239). In other words, the analysis moved from what the EU says and does to what the EU is (Vasilyan 2007: 4). Further, he stresses that both concepts of CPE and NPE differ from each other in the backgrounds of values adopted: whereas CPE has a merely communitarian or national nature, NPE claims a universal, transnational validity of its norms (Manners 2006: 176). However, according to some critics such as Diez (2005: 620), each civilian or normative power sees its own actions and values as universal and more legitimate than those of others. Nonetheless, Manners states that the EU’s normative difference originates from its historical context, hybrid polity, and political-legal constitution. The EU has been built in a pacifistic postwar environment where international violence was condemned and where political commitment enabled abandoning the Westphalian discourse. This moved Europe towards a hybrid sui generis kind of governance, consisting of supranational and international elements. Even though this new unit was elite-driven and its function has been restricted by conventions in a form of treaties, it has been profoundly regulated by a strong legal order based on post-war universal humanistic norms, derived from Kant’s ethics. Additionally, these norms are generally acknowledged within the UN system to be universally applicable, thus legitimising the NPE’s universal representation of human rights (Manners 2002: 240-242; 2006: 170). Manners distinguishes two kinds of norms (Manners 2002: 240-242; 2006: 170). The first group is composed of ‘core’ norms (peace, liberty, democracy, rule of law and human rights), while the second group comprises ‘minor’ norms (social solidarity, anti-discrimination, sustainable development and good governance). Both categories are derived from the intention to protect and spread human dignity and equality. The difference between these two kinds of norms is, in Manner’s words, that the ‘minor’ group is ‘far more contested’ and unsettled than the ‘core’ group. Applying it to external governance, he further elaborates by stating that all of these universal norms and principles [have been placed] at the centre of [the EU’s] relations with its Member States (…) and the world (…). The EU has gone further towards making its external relations informed by, and conditioned on, a catalogue of norms, which come closer to those of the European convention on human right and fundamental freedoms (ECHR) and the universal declaration on human rights. (Manners 2002: 241) The Treaty on the European Union (TEU Title V: 21) demonstrates it clearly: 9 The Union shall define and pursue common policies and actions, and shall work for a high degree of cooperation in all fields of international relations, in order to: (…) (b) consolidate and support democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the principles of international law, (c) preserve peace, prevent conflicts and strengthen international security (…) (d) foster the sustainable economic, social and environmental development of developing countries, with the primary aim of eradicating poverty (…) To sum up, Manners perceives EU’s governance through constructing and disseminating norms as an internal obligatory commitment to Kantian ethics and human universality. This in turn, naturally influences the Commission and Member States’ conduct of external relations (Orbie 2009a: 18). As far as EU’s civilian and normative external governance is concerned, the EU is often described as a ‘soft power’. Next to actual and short-term oriented possession goals furthering national interests, the EU’s external governance is also concerned with milieu goals. As a result, the EU aims to shape international conditions beyond its boundaries, thus controlling the international environment in which it operates. These milieu goals arise from ‘what the Member States can all agree on’ (Smith 2003: 107, 109). Applied to the NPE, the most conventional form of such a milieu-oriented approach is a holistic, multilevel, multisectorial and multistructural method, evoking ‘a preference for incentives through development aid, market access, political dialogue, and persuasion in international affairs’ (Keukeleire and MacNaughtan 2008: 24, 25-28). It is also effected through trade, peacekeeping, multilateralism, different kinds of conditionality, some kind of association relation, enlargement prospects etc. As a consequence, universal human standards are disseminated, and global public goods are strengthened, thus benefitting the public welfare. Coincidentally, a new international environment is created, amenable to the objectives of the EU (Orbie 2009a: 13; Manners 2002: 244-245). As an example, one of the most effective instruments/ends of CPE has been the Common/Internal Market. The EU is an extraordinary extensive and prosperous sales market with a relative high market price levels and voluminous consumption. Bretherton and Vogler (2006: 88) assert, that the magnitude of the EU’ Single Market has ensured that the EU can be seen as exercising a form of trade duopoly with the US. Hence, it is very attractive to non-EU countries to set for access to the Market in terms of export and investments. Consequently, as Orbie (2009b: 36) put it, ‘[t]he possibility to decide on the level and the conditions of access for particular countries/sectors to the world largest market [EU Single Market] constitutes a considerable source of power (…)’. To fully exploit this source of power, EU often maintains different types of bilateral agreements, where ‘for most of the participants in these bilateral arrangements the Union is frequently a domineering actor’ (Bretherton and Vogler 2006: 78). In this context and deferring to the EU’s normative mandate, the conditions for market access mainly concern peace and security (e.g. Everything but Arms initiative), human rights, political reforms, sustainable development, recognition and implementation of human equality through free trade and multilateralism and other norms central to the EU (Orbie 2009a: 17, 18). Additionally, opening the Internal Market to a third party is usually accompanied by the rule of reciprocity, i.e. reciprocal opening of the third party’s market to EU’s exports and investment. Overall, as a result of this gatekeeping, international structures become gradually altered, which is beneficial to both the EU and its trading partner. The upshot of healthy free trade is the 10 propagation of the EU’s norms beyond borders, thus influencing human rights and instigating an environment conducive to the Commission’s long term economic strategies. Simultaneously, welfare, democracy, human rights etc. situation is believed to enhance (Orbie 2009a: 4-8). This explanation of the EU as a civilian and normative power has raised many criticisms. For example, in his critique of Duchêne’s concept of CPE, Bull (1982) suggests the latter’s conclusions are contradictio in terminis, since Europe’s civilian commitment, its abrogation of the Westphalian order resulted from the transference of its defence obligation to the US, NATO’s hegemonic player. Hyde-Price (2007) labelled EU’s norm conditionality vis-à-vis countries of postcommunist European countries in the 1990s as creating a temporary hierarchy in Europe through political ostracism and an economic carrot-and-stick approach, where EU membership was the carrot and exclusion the stick. Other critics assert that a similar structure exist between the Union and developing countries. Youngs (2010: 6) insists that ‘[t]he EU’s “civilian power” has morphed into a “soft imperialism” that imposes norms in an inconvenient fashion in furtherance of very direct short-term self-interest.’ Orbie (2009b: 45) states that despite its commitment to multilateral free trade, the EU’s admission of goods to the Internal Market subjects to protectionist tendencies, without emphasising value. The Union’s sugar policy can serve as a good example of such behaviour (Baldwin and Wyplosz 2009: 366). Orbie (2009b: 62) concludes that the ‘[r]ise of value-based objectives in inter alia Europe’s trade policy profile appears to be a normative dressing over a free trade agenda (…), rather than a genuine commitment to reach these [normative] objectives’, where, as will be later explained, free-trade agenda can be seen as a key element of the EU’s most favourable international environment. Wood (2009) claims that the EU’s projection of its norms and values to the Third World has not always met with success. He argues that if the Commission’s advances are rebuffed by the potential recipient, or if it needs more from the recipient, than vice versa, it seems powerless to effect a resolution. To sum up, some scholars argue that the Kantian-normative rhetoric does not always correspond with the actual performance of the EU. A more radical view, put forth by Johan Galtung, perceived the establishment of the European Common Market equipped with civilian governance as a major self-centred and protectionist step, returning Europe to a highly global political global presence through its manipulation of the economic and political environment, and its resultant exploitation of power. Beyond the EU’s borders, many countries were embroiled in upheaval, social unrest and ideological change. Such preoccupations facilitated the realisation of the ‘non-military formula for empire building’: Europe was creating a hierarchic or asymmetrical relation between the Common Market members and some others, especially those in the Third World, even though no military means had been employed. Galtung (1973; Orbie 2009a: 6-7) concluded that true civilian content of Europe’s governance was merely illusionary. Realists have also entered the fray. While most of them insist that the bloc’s focus on liberal values is utopic, even harmfully naïve, some such as Robert Keohane (1984: 122) perceive the EU as a realistic player despite its value-loaded rhetoric. He stated that cooperation inherent to both civilian and normative power, factoring collective interests and leading to apparent win-win scenarios, is just a matter of necessity and efficacy in a the international environment of the 21st century. More importantly, he interpreted it as a far-sighted self-interest rather than any kind of idealism and naïve altruism. Similarly, Keukeleire and MacNaughtan (2008: 21-22) have argued that the protection and extension of global public goods such as environment, health and social areas are in the primarily of place self-regarding interest and, therefore, of secondary 11 benefit to other stakeholders (other-regarding interests). Thus the civilian governance agenda serves the EU as a tool to alter the international milieu, primarily serving the EU’s own interest. Based on this conclusion, this win-win situation is not a logical consequence of normative governance, but rather a possible side effect. Consequently, they insist that the EU’s liberal internationalism is a mere cloak for the maximisation of its self-interest (Youngs 2010: 1). With respect to Realists’ criticisms, Sandra Lavenex argues that the recent developments of the EU denote its ambitions to reassert its identity as a security community. She ascribes this paradigmatic shift to a sequence of institutional changes inside the EU itself initiated in Maastricht in 1991, and to the transformed international environment after the end of the Cold War. Firstly, the EU has had to cope with a new multipolar world order, substituting preceding bipolarity. Secondly, during this period, the geopolitical system of the USSR and its satellites was dissolved and Yugoslavia fell into civil war – all of which was happening just next to the EU’s borders. Thirdly, besides these developments, globalisation began to manifest itself through diverse transnational processes all over the world and within the EU itself (Stevens and Sakwa 2005: 237-247) These new and sometimes unanticipated processes and developments ensured that the EU’s mainstream perception of interdependence was changed substantially. Importantly, Lavenex (2004) argues that interdependence and mutual vulnerability, in particular between the EU and its neighbourhood, has begun to be observed as a potential source of threats to security. Subsequently, these threats began to ‘play a central role in the legitimation of political order’ (Lavenex 2004: 682-685), gradually substituting the prevailing institutionalist perspective (chapter 1). Overall, the EU might have been behaving as a civilian power, but because of geopolitical changes, globalisation and internal institutional developments, the present EU’s governance has been increasingly focused on security issues in order to preserve its own security. Within this framework, the EU has aimed to secure its interior, its borders and neighbourhood through a series of enlargements, the introduction of European Neighbourhood Policy, combined with international dialogue. An inherent part of this border extension has been a full of partial adoption of the acquis communautaire, where EU’s norms and values play a central role. Crucially, Lavenex understands this border extension as ‘not only a benevolent projection of acquired civilian virtues but also a more strategic attempt to gain control over policy developments through external governance’ (Lavenex 2004: 682-685). In this way, trans-border features threatening the EU’s security, such as environmental hazards, illegal migration, trafficking, terrorism and various illegal practices can be effectively combated through internalisation by the EU itself: The EU will try to expand its sphere of governance in particular in areas which have become securitized inside and where vulnerability is attributed to developments in the third country in question. (…) [However,] securitization from this perspective does not directly derive from objective external threats but is the outcome of framing processes within an evolving institutional environment. (Lavenex 2004: 686) To conclude, Sandra Lavenex argues that recent EU’s governance has been backed by securitisation of EU’s external dependence constructed inside EU institutions. More generally, it has been observed by some that the EU’s claim to be a civilian and normative power, while implying benevolence, have in fact been a significant factor in the pursuit of its own self-interest. Thus, this perception that the ability to sustainably shape and reshape structures of 12 the international environment by means of civilian self-obligation and designing valid norms, is crucial to the bloc’s self-preservation in the international power struggle. Realists, therefore, state that the concepts of CPE and NPE are subordinated to more essential, self-regarding interests of the EU. The next subsection links these realist conclusions to EU’s external energy governance. 2.2. External energy governance External governance mainly appears in areas where the realisation of internal objectives has external implications. Since Europe has been only limitedly endowed with energy sources, Europe has had to rely on a variety of imports of raw energy sources, such as conventional crude oil, natural gas and, recently, coal. Since the current European society has so far become highly dependent on energy, ensuring energy inflow has evolved as an important concern of Europe’s external governance. The main objective of this section is to analyse EU’s energy governance in the theoretical context sketched above – a realist approach to the concepts of civilian and normative power. It will be revealed that the realist critique is applicable to the EU’s external governance, since it is primarily oriented towards energy supply security. Energy issues as a part of Europe’s governance is not a new topic. The main reason why energy has been a subject of supranational governance has been the perception of energy as a security issue, since energy, like food and water, is a basic fundament for the functioning of a modern society. In other words, energy governance derives its raison d’être from ensuring security of European society. Integrating energy in Europe first appeared in the post-war 1950s, when ECSC and EURATOM were launched (Belyi 2009: 205). However, the main objective of these two projects was internal coordination rather than external governance. It was not until the early 1970s, with the advent of two major oil crises, that energy was explicitly included as a security concern in Europe’s foreign policy. Nevertheless, even though Brussels began to push for a common policy dealing with the security situation at a supranational level, ‘the political effect of the crisis was translated into the nationalisation of energy policies’. As Belyi (2009: 205) put it, ‘since the oil crises, European energy policy as regards the question of supply and market regulation has been removed from the political agenda of the European treaties establishing and reinforcing the EU’. Consequently, no Common Energy Policy has been enforced up until now. Only in 2007 did the European Council take a little step towards it, when it legislated that energy issues were to acquire a limited legal basis in the Reform Treaty of Lisbon (Article 194). Yet the scope of this legislation is predominantly focused on the internal situation, with less emphasis on the external. In fact, the external dimension does not even merit an explicit mention in the Reform Treaty. Overall, the security of energy supply, though a subject of European integration since its very beginning, seems to remain predominantly a matter of the Member States (Belyi 2009: 204-206). Despite the lack of Common Energy Policy, and a lack of inflow governance, the Union endeavours to compensate through enacting measures internally as a response to external geopolitical developments. However, prior to expounding on these measures, it is a prerequisite to examine global energy developments and their impact on the EU. Firstly, global demand for fuels has been growing, especially due to emergent major players such as China, India, Brazil and other developing and post-developing countries (Verrastro etc. 2010: 14). Secondly, the EU has 13 become increasingly reliant on imports from and throughout unstable regions, such as the Gulf States, Venezuela, Nigeria and Eastern Europe. The Eastern Enlargement in 2004 added to this dependency, since the majority of the twelve admissions had been historically reliant on Russia for their oil and gas needs. The consequences of conflicts in Iraq and disputes between Russia and the Ukraine in 2006 and Belarus in 2007 revealed the extent to which the EU is vulnerable in this matter. According to general expectations, this weakness will not soon be rectified. Rather, ‘[t]he EU’s import dependency for oil was set to increase from 52 per cent in 2013 to 95 per cent in 2030, and for gas from 36 to 84 per cent over the same period.’ (Youngs 2009a 1-2) Realists have warned that the alarmingly growing dependence has provided the energy supplying countries with leverage over the EU while it deprived the EU of leverage over the suppliers, thus having significant consequences to EU’s international position and balance of power. Thirdly, Russia is able and willing to use its energy resources as a political weapon in order to consolidate itself as an ambitious superpower. This invariably has created an atmosphere of distrust and uncertainty of supply in Europe (Khrushcheva 2011: 218-219, Interview 2). Fourthly, since the energy supply (particularly crude oil and natural gas) is currently stagnating and is not expected to meet the increasing demand in the future, energy prices have been rising significantly (Natorski and Surrallés 2008: 71-89. 72). It is important to mention that Western society has been built on cheap energy. However, for example 2009 oil price levels compared to 2008 were doubled. Importantly, high and volatile energy prices might negatively affect Europe’s future growth and competitiveness. Only lower demand or higher supply could cause the price to fall to its original value, neither of which is likely to fall when price fixing is at the whim of the producer states (Luciani 2011: 4-5). Further, there are also energy transit routes which might potentially grow but their overcrowdedness does not make it possible. Also, in some cases, even though the natural endowment of energy sources could be still seen as immense, it is impossible to access and extract them, because of insufficient technology levels or inacceptable impacts on environment (Verrastro etc. 2010: 3-7, 11-14). Fifthly, it has been proved that production of CO2 through energy generation in thermal power plants is one of the main causes of global climate warming, implying that something must be urgently changed in the whole energy sector (IPCC 2001a). Overall, the energy sector is facing great challenges, demanding a more comprehensive policy in dealing with them. The EU has already determined such a broad strategy. Since it can be involved in the energy supply governance only through Member States, this strategy is focused on building the internal energy market through sectorial liberalisation and enhancements of inner, inter-state infrastructural interconnections, such as Trans-European Networks in electricity and gas, gas and oil energy storage promoting diversification of energy mix in terms of routes, supply countries, and resources, with a particular focus on renewable energy demanding control through energy efficiency and saving investment in R&D all of which are meant inter alia to secure energy supply EU-wide, thus strengthening mutual solidarity among the Member States (Lahn etc. 2009: 11-12; European Commission 2013). Next to the clean energy discourse described in the following chapter, market liberalisation has become the key element of the EU energy strategy. 14 Not surprisingly, the Commission is the main normative promoter of market liberalisation, being supported by its neoliberal background, free-trade orientation and commitment to value and rule-based, ‘effective’ multilateralism (Hermann 2007: 61-89). According to the Commission, non-market approaches, such as state-like and monopolistic structures and individual bilateral agreements between Member States and energy supply countries, are economically inefficient and lead, as a result of lacking competition, to unstable and unpredictable supply flows, growing dependence, price volatility, contractual mismatch between supply and transit contracts (De Jong 2012a: 3) and, consequently, loss of competitiveness, etc. Hence, the Commission believes that negative consequences of any supply disruption can be diminished by the market, flexibly offering energy from alternative suppliers. In this way, the exploitation of the EU’s energy sources and market potentials could become much more efficient. Citing Nicolas Jabko (2006: 92), ‘[t]he European Union, and especially the European Commission, stepped into energy politics and regulation by becoming the watchdog of liberalisation’. Subsequently, the Commission has pushed for unbundling of energy production from energy transmission or other kinds of unbundling, rationalised by Barosso as follows: If a company sells electricity and gas and at the same time owns the networks, it has every incentive to make sure that its competitors do not get fair access to “its” grid. This includes, of course, refusing to build the new lines and interconnectors that will bring more competition on its home market. (RAPID 2007) Consequently, national champions and international giants of the EU were to be dismantled, removing destination restrictions and offering more space to free trade, and competition and all benefits related to it. This process would necessitate a comprehensive involvement of supranational coordination, possibly leading to Common Energy Policy, so much desired by the Commission. Moreover, through linking liberalisation with energy security, the environmental protection and climate change, social cohesion, economic competitiveness and other policy topics, the Commission hopes to perform more efficiently. Not only are different objectives achieved simultaneously but the outcomes are likely mutually supportive and synergic. For example, linking energy market liberalisation and combating climate change, energy dependence, falling competitiveness and rising unemployment, this transition offers a solution to these problems areas (see chapter 3). To sum up, the Commission is convinced that the market approach will provide the EU with sustainability, security, diversity in energy supply and mutual solidarity, while excluding the negative sides of bilateral agreements. (McGowan 2008: 90-95; Natorski and Surrallés 2008: 75-77) However, the process of market liberalisation has proved to be extraordinarily protracted due to a lot of reluctance or even resistance from some nation states. Francis McGowan states that re-emergence of national security thinking in energy can be observed since 2006 as a reaction to the recurrent disruption of energy supply from Russia through the Ukraine and Belarus. As in the 1970s, the post-2006 supply crisis has led to nationalisation of energy security. Opponents argue that liberalisation or even subsequent Europeanisation of energy governance would deprive nation states of the existing energy supply security by diminishing individual negotiation power in energy matters vis-à-vis supply countries, in which the loss of strong national energy champions would play a crucial role. The Commission’s incompetence in resolving the various energy crises in the late 2000s merited such criticisms. 15 Therefore, it can be concluded that countries, where energy imports based on bilateral agreements have had a long history and have been, yet, seen as relatively reliable, where energy import dependence is high, where national champions are still cherished and where little Europeanisation spirit rules, oppose the Commission’s liberalising approach, such as France, Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Slovakia, the UK. Some of these countries, such as France, Germany and Italy are even direct opponents of intergovernmental cooperation, transparency and information-sharing on bilateral energy deals since security of energy is, according to them, an exclusive concern of their national governance (Youngs 2009a: 34-38). Lithuania and Latvia are prime examples of how dependence on an energy supply monopolist and the consequent fear of upsetting their supplier weigh heavily on their stance towards EU liberalisation policy (Interview 2, 3). Such resource nationalism thinking is, according to McGowan (2008: 99), demonstrated by similar tendencies in Africa, Latin America and Central Asia. Only countries, which have a strong belief in virtues of the market liberalisation, and countries which are strongly self-interested in deeper integration, such as Spain, Lithuania (Interview 2) etc. support the liberalisation and subsequent Europeanisation of the energy sector. Consequently, there is very little unity perceivable in the energy sector among the involved parties of the EU. (Youngs 2009a: 36-39; 2010: 113; De Jong 2012a: 5) Olga Khrushcheva (2011: 218) calls this disunity as ‘alarming incoherence’. Whereas some wish to liberalise and further Europeanise their energy sectors, others see such developments as unnecessary or even as inconceivable and essentially dangerous. Next to these positions, as McGowan (2008: 99) states, some countries (the Netherlands and the UK) do support liberalisation but oppose Europeanisation. It is not startling that such a diversity of internal preferences among 27 Member States has very negative consequences to the external leverage of the EU as a whole. Such internal inconsistency provides rivals with an opportunity to take advantage. The lack of cohesion seriously undermines the collective bargaining power of the Union and smaller and energy dependent Member States vis-à-vis energy supply countries and major energy supply companies, while improving their negotiation power vis-à-vis the EU. Thus with the abatement of negotiating power, the diffusion of the EU’s norms and milieu goals is seriously compromised, and even is some quarters encounters complete resistance. In this way, the asymmetrical relationship between the EU and its partners/rivals determines, what the subjects of negotiation are and to what extent the EU can exert influence over these negotiations (Kasčiūnas and Vaičiūnas 2007: 49). So, internal incoherence and disunity among the Member States deprives the EU of a significant share of its external leverage. With energy liberalisation being a milieu goal, Youngs (2010: 111) states that ‘[t]he rules and regulations of the internal market are defined as the key foundation to the EU’s international projection in energy matters.’ By exporting its own model of free trade and calling it as a European value or norm, the EU aims to adjust the international environment in order to reach its self-centred security objectives. The EU is handicapped by its monopolistic suppliers, who, because of their vast natural resources capabilities, are able to wield an great array of power and influence on it and its Member States. Investment opportunities of the supplier states in the Internal Market often exceed those available to Europeans in these said states (Kasčiūnas and Vaičiūnas 2007: 50). Unlike the situation in countries which have partly or fully adopted the acquis communautaire, the free market idea has found significantly fewer supporters in the most energy producing countries (McGowan 2008: 98). The Chatham House researchers (Lahn etc. 2009: 5, 22) conclude that ‘countries with energy resources are resistant to the predominant EU 16 model of market governance because they perceive it as operating in their comparative disadvantage’, being bolstered by the ‘asymmetry of market between producer and consumer countries in favour of the former’. Sijbren de Jong (2012a: 3) emphasises, that unbundled and liberalised supply markets imply less demand stability for the suppliers. Therefore, it is little wonder that the supplier states balk at embracing liberalisation. The EU’s inability to gain the upper hand in bargaining can be attributed to its chronically high energy dependence and the preferences disarray that permeates its Member States. Overall, it can be concluded that the EU’s liberalisation efforts in supply countries have proved to be predominantly ineffective. (Belyi 2009: 208-211, 209) The failure of dissemination of the liberal market approach in energy as one of the European values is best represented by Russia’s position towards the Energy Charter Treaty. The ECT ‘is designed to promote energy security through the operation of more open and competitive energy markets, while respecting the principles of sustainable development and sovereignty over energy resources’ (Energy Charter: 1994 Treaty). Then special attention must be paid to the so called Transit Protocol, an essential part of the Treaty. Its present form would address critical issues for energy transportation networks, in particular the conditions for access to networks and the stipulation that tariffs charged for energy transit must be objective, non-discriminatory and cost-reflective. (Energy Charter 2004: Energy Transit) This article advocates market liberalisation through unbundling the market chain, dismantling those structures that might inhibit free trade. It suggests free access to energy extraction and production and other investment possibilities. Consequently, bilateral agreements would have to be replaced by free market logic. However, since the monopolistic character of the Russian energy sector appears to be politically advantageous more to Russia than to the EU, especially in times of higher energy prices (Luciani 2011: 6-10) and alarming EU’s internal incoherence (Kasčiūnas and Vaičiūnas 2007: 48; Luciani 2011: 6-10), Russia is provided only little incentive to participate in this liberalisation process. Participating in liberalisation would deal a body blow to Gazprom, a powerful Russian monopolist and Moscow’s weapon in holding the EU to ransom. Despite being a signatory to the Energy Charter Treaty (1991/1994), Russia never ratified it, thus negating its implementation. In the language of realism, the EU has no sufficient leverage to compel Russia to implement liberalisation in the energy sector. Russia’s huge resources allow it to repeatedly spurn the advances of the EU (Belyi 2009: 211-214; McGowan 2008: 97-99). When it became clear that the Energy Charter was not in effect in Russia, the 3rd Energy Package was introduced in 2007 (in force 2009). The EU perceived this as a tool to ‘open the internal energy market in exchange for access to foreign markets, also allowing for the protection of the internal market against those states that have not liberalised their energy sectors in equal measure’ (De Jong 2012a: 2). Barroso stated in 2007: [W]e need to place tough conditions on ownership of assets by non EU companies to make sure that we all play by the same rules. This is about fairness; it is about protecting fair competition. It is not about protectionism. (RAPID 2007) However, Russia and others understood it as legally incompatible with the EU-Russia partnership and cooperation agreement provisions on non-discrimination, and thus very disadvantageous to them. Since the reciprocity clause would have directly negative 17 consequences to Gazprom’s market share in the Internal Market, Russia saw it as depriving its companies of a large share of profits. Subsequently, Russia reacted by adopting regulatory measures in 2009 disadvantaging non-Russian companies, maintaining the monopolistic character of Gazprom and regulating out European energy giants, such as BP and Shell, from the Russian market. Algeria, with its state supported monopoly Sonatrach, supplies 18% of the EU’s gas, adopted a similar stance to that of Russia. Consequently, both Russia and Algeria have so far ignored the reciprocity clause. They see no need to unbundle particularly when the EU itself does not appear to implement unbundling internally. Also, the EU has abandoned its liberal argument to defend itself from external energy monopolist giants by liberalisation and unbundling. As Sijbren de Jong (2012a: 5) puts it, In the energy relations between the EU and Russia, reciprocal market access remains one of the thorniest issues. (…) [i]t is fair to assume that hitherto Brussels has had little leverage in Moscow to persuade Russia to change its position on the matter. Basically, the EU does not seem to be equipped with sufficient capacity to disseminate its market norm beyond its borders. As a soft power, the EU is unable to change the international milieu. (De Jong 2012a: 2-3; McGowan 2008: 97-101; Youngs 2010: 113) Furthermore, the EU’s dissemination of human rights and the rule of law through its external energy policy has been non-convincing and ineffectual. The Commission has been extremely cautious in its dealing with producer states, where human rights violations are prevalent, thus putting its self-interest above the very values in claims to espouse. Andrei V. Belyi (2009: 208209) states that EU’s energy security strategy makes an exception to the EU’s appearance as a postmodern civilian and normative power. For example, in the Gulf States, Belyi argues the EU is ‘unable to wield any influence comparable to that of the US’. As a part of its institutionalised relations through the Gulf Cooperation Council, only security cooperation, arms sales and free trade topic belongs to the subjects discussed, while other European values and norms are usually excluded and ignored. Further, moving to Latin America, where Venezuela prefers to set stronger national control over energy resources, the EU does not dare to push for implementation of its norms, since the existing relationship between Venezuela and the EU is already very frail (Youngs 2010: 115, 120). Furthermore, the Commission has been supervising the construction of the new gas pipeline Nabucco from Azerbaijan and also from Turkmenistan to Europe, two countries characterised by a large democratic deficit. However, Sijbren de Jong (2012b) asserts that it has become clear that human rights, in particular the rule of law and democracy have been decoupled from the EU deals in the gas-rich Central Asian countries. It has been generally advised that ‘the Union should rather take a pragmatic stance and position itself better compared to Russia and China who managed to seize opportunities, which the EU had largely missed’ prevalently because of its inconsistent insistence on human rights reforms. (…) If the EU is serious about its attempts to secure Turkmen gas – or other sources for that matter – an approach whereby priority in the short to medium term is given to engagement through hydrocarbon cooperation gains increased legitimacy through the argument that Russia and China do not play by the same rules. Moreover, it is safe to say that after acquiring a gas contract, Moscow and Beijing are unlikely to care much about democratic reform in the region. (De Jong 2012b: 5-6) A gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China has been already finished and put into operation. So, put simply, if the EU conditions its interest in Central Asian and Caucasian gas by the 18 human rights, it will flow rather to Russia and/or China than to the EU. So, in the short term, energy interests and human rights in Central Asia seem to be irreconcilable. Again, derived from the examples of the Gulf states, Venezuela and Central Asian countries, the EU is incapable of exerting influence in the international sphere due its internal incoherence, high dependence and limited prospects for a substantial change, as previously discussed. Neither EU’s normative conditionality nor the power of the Internal Market appears to be sufficient and the international milieu has remained resistant to EU’s governance. Hence, in this context, soft normative governance seems to be deficient. Last but not least, Richard Youngs (2010: 9) argue, that the EU’s overall commitment to normative milieu goals, such as effective multilateralism, liberalism and human rights has indeed become increasingly vague. He states, that analyses of different policy areas of the EU, such as energy strategy, show evidence ‘to sustain the single thesis that the EU’s external policies are increasingly illiberal. Even though [c]laims are still ritually made that the EU supports multilateral process as intrinsically valuable in itself, regardless of the outcomes it produces (…), European governments are showing signs of (…) contingent multilateralism – with EU member states more instrumentally selective in their observance of international rules now that global system no longer provides for their own overwhelming hegemony. (Youngs 2010: 36-37) According to Realists, this ‘multilateralism of convenience’ (Youngs 2010: 31-33), i.e. EU’s adaptation to the imminent multipolar world order, comprises EU’s instrumental cooperation on a bilateral basis with emergent poles, such as China, India and Brazil in order to constitute bandwagoning behaviour, ensure its own security and balance their geopolitical involvement in strategic development in Africa. More generally, some argue that the EU’s commitment to state equality and pure multilateralism is in practice constrained by the emergent multipolar political order demanding a more realistic approach to foreign affairs. Consequently, current EU’s promotion of multilateralism seems to be increasingly conceived as a means towards a managed form of multipolarity, where the EU determines the basic rules of game and other norms. As Youngs (2010: 37) put it, EU’s commitment to multilateralism is ‘a means of smoothing the way to a managed form of multipolarity’, rather than a means to thicken or deepen liberal cosmopolitanism. The EU is ‘”egoistically geopolitical” but seeks to mask this with rule-based discourse’ (Youngs 2010: 115). Overall, to conclude, this section has revealed that the EU is only partially successful in achieving its milieu objectives (not only in the energy sector) through its value-based and normative governance. The EU has proved to be constrained by three main factors: 1. high dependence on energy exporters and little prospect for a relief; 2. considerable internal incoherence characterised by wide diversity of preferences in energy governance among Member States and between the Member States and the Commission, e.g. Europeanisation and liberalisation of the energy sector; 3. the changing international environment generated by emergent multipolar world order. The process of liberalisation of the energy market served as an example of EU’s milieu means/objective governance, demonstrating its inability to implement a free market discourse beyond EU’s borders. Since neither liberalisation nor commitment to human right, as normative tools and milieu goals, have proven to be effective, it can be concluded that, in energy, the EU 19 lacks sufficient capabilities to successfully promote its favourable milieu, thus failing as a major player in the emerging multipolar international environment. The next chapter will show how clean energy development can address this issue. 20 3: Clean energy development Low-carbon clean energy is often primarily understood as an environmentally sound strategy, developed to address environmental deterioration caused through human intervention. Environmental protection and climate change mitigation are thus presented as European norms, by which clean energy development moves to a normative dimension (Manners 2002: 243). However, this chapter aims at challenging this assumption emphasising that the EU’s clean energy policies contain genuine elements of self-interest, aside from the normative justification of sustainable development and combating climate change. The European Commission officially states that the EU’s policy of clean energy development is designed around a triad of policy objectives: energy security, competitiveness and climate change: More renewable energy will enable the EU to cut greenhouse emissions and make it less dependent on imported energy. And boosting the renewables industry will encourage technological innovation and employment in Europe. (Commission: Renewable energy) Historically, norms of sustainability and climate change seem to be the crucial driving force behind clean energy discourse, because neither the energy security crises nor the urge to boost the EU’s competitiveness have managed to deploy renewables, energy efficiency and other clean energy aspects to such a revolutionary extent as the recent perception of environmental degradation. Therefore, having outlined the current policy framework of clean energy development, this chapter will further focus on the evolution of the EU’s environmental policies and its integration to other, mostly energy strategies culminating in its acquisition of global leadership in climate change policies. Energy security and competitiveness rationales will be considered as next concepts officially justifying clean energy development, while greatly profiting from the EU´s normative commitment to climate change mitigation and low-carbon energy transition. Additionally, this chapter will also present two other concepts, which are positively affected by clean energy development and which contribute to sustaining the EU’s position both internally and externally, namely the EU project’s legitimacy and coherence on energy policies. This chapter will show that clean energy development as in its official wording cannot be labelled merely as a normative strategy, because has come to contain self-interest and is a factor in what the Neorealists call the accumulation of power. This chapter concludes that the EU’s normative commitment to climate change mitigation through clean energy produces capabilities for effective external governance as a normative power. 3.1. Sustainability and climate change Current policy framework The current energy strategy in the EU was presented in the 2009 Climate and Energy Package (Commission: The EU climate and energy package; Energy Roadmap 2050). As elucidated below, climate and energy issues have become intensely intertwined as the energy sector is responsible 21 for approximately 80% of global GHG2 emissions (60% in Europe), which are the main cause of climate deterioration (EEA 2012). The essence of this legislative bundle is the promotion of sustainability in the energy sector by means of introducing 20/20/20 mandatory targets: a cut of 20% (possibly 30%) of GHG emission from 1990 levels, an increase of the share of renewable energy to 20% and improvements in energy efficiency by 20%, all of which are to be fulfilled by 2020 (Directive 2009/28/EC). Aside from these targets, the 2009 Climate and Energy Package announced a comprehensive revision of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), which is according to Donald MacKenzie (2009, 137) ‘the Union’s main tool for combating global warming’ launched in 2005. It was proposed that this should be achieved through the substitution of a system of national caps by a system of a single EU cap, accompanied by yearly cuts. Free allocation of emissions allowances should be gradually replaced by auctioning, applied first in the energy sector. Related to ETS, national GHG targets are to be adjusted according to relative wealth of individual Member States, which is known under the so-called effort sharing decision on emission targets in sectors not included in the EU ETS regime, such as transport (excl. aviation), waste, agriculture and buildings. Further, the EU declared its commitment to the development and subsequent deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) through the announcement of a legal framework for the environmentally safe use of CCS technology in coal and gas sectors (Commission: The EU climate and energy package ). The EU’s energy technology policy established by the EU’s SET-Plan, (The European Strategic Energy Technology Plan), should remain ensuring the overall boost in research, innovation and technological progression in the clean energy development (Commission: SET-Plan; Commission: Roadmap 2050). For completeness, Christian Egenhofer and Monica Alessi (2013: 2) complement this overview with two more pieces of legislation related to the 2009 Package, namely the regulation on CO2 emissions by cars and new environmental quality standards for fuel and biofuels. 2009 Climate and Energy Package 1. 20/20/20 strategy 2. ETS revision 3. 4. 5. 6. CCS development SET-Plan Transport: cars Fuels and biofuels 20%/30% GHG reduction (1990 levels) by 2020 20% of energy from renewables by 2020 20% improvement of energy efficiency by 2020 National caps replaced by a single EU system Effort sharing mechanism Legal framework Reasserted, further developed CO2 to be reduced New quality standards to be developed In this way, the EU expects to approximate the realisation of its 2050 Energy Roadmap objectives, a long-term set of targets in the socio-economic sector of energy (and other GHG intensive sectors, such as transport) aiming at a significant decarbonisation of the concerned policy areas. Therefore, the 2050 targets contextualise the current developments policies in the EU’s energy and environmental sectors as intermediate processes aiming at the decarbonisation of its economy and society. Even though there is no exact scenario of how Europe in 2050 should look like, the European Commission states that the EU’s socio-economic sectors incl. energy should resemble the following picture: 2 Greenhouse gases are chemical compounds which damage the ozone layer and contribute climate change. The most common greenhouse gases are H20 (water vapor), CO2 (carbon dioxide), CH4 (methane), NO2 (nitrous oxide), 03 (ozone) and compounds consisting halogen elements: F (fluorine), Cl (chlorine), Br (Bromine), I (Iodine) and At (Astatine). Levels of greenhouse gases are usually measured in CO2 equivalent. 22 2050 Energy Roadmap 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Overall demand for energy per capita has been decreased by approximately 40% compared to 2005/2006 values. Energy supply has been technologically diversified: renewables count for 97% of electricity consumption and 75% of overall energy consumption. Natural gas, coal and uranium have become obsolete energy sources and are used only to a negligible extent. Electricity plays a much more important role (incl. transport) than ever before. Energy production has been highly decentralised and dispersed. The risk of energy price volatility has been considerably lowered due to decrease in external dependencies on fossil fuels (fall from current 58% to about 35-45% in 2050). New technologies and infrastructural networks have ensured more efficient generation, transmission, distribution and saving of energy. All of these steps have made the EU generate about 80-95% less GHG than in 1990. Source: Commission: Energy Roadmap. As a part of the 2050 indicative trajectory, the Commission identifies natural gas, uranium and coal used by Carbon Capture and Storage technology to be crucial transition fuels enabling subsequent gradual marginalisation of ‘dirty’ fossil fuels by clean energy technologies. By 2050 none of these fuels should have an important share in the total energy mix of the EU. Aside from this, the energy transition should be intensively stimulated by carbon pricing, intended to increase the costs of energy generated from high-carbon fossil fuels, thus advantaging new, lowcarbon ways (Commission: Energy Roadmap). Overall, the Climate and Energy Package of 2009 and other legislative measures should be seen in the context of a long-term strategy towards low-carbon Europe. Next to the Climate and Energy Package’s orientation towards the 2050 picture, it should be also put to a historical perspective to trace back its ideational origins. Historical context Current energy policies should be understood as a consequence of a gradually increasing popular and political commitment to address the problem of environmental degradation. In the EU’s institutional setting, this has been represented by the establishment of the EU’s environmental policy at the Paris Summit in 1972 and its subsequent gradual integration in other policy areas, including the field of EU energy. Edith Vanden Brande (2009: 161) indicates that it was already in the 1970s when Europe witnessed the first attempt of environmental policies to extent to other policy areas: the First Environmental Action Programme (1972) unprecedentedly addressed issues of environmental degradation caused by unsustainable economic growth, such as acid rain, thinning of the ozone layer, air quality and diverse kinds of pollution. Vande Brande (2009: 161) further rationalises the politicisation and Europeanisation of environment as a consequence of the societal change of the 1960s, when people began to consider different social, environmental and humanistic sides of human life in an increasingly critical way. Yet, until the end of the 1980s, policies with the spirit of environmental protection remained to be perceived as economically constraining and thus unconstructive. This limited the extent to which environmental issues were designed, implemented and integrated to other policy areas. Therefore, the 1970s and 1980s was a period of gradual expansion of environmental policies to other policy areas. 23 However, in the 1990s this situation changed significantly, as environmental issues became a dominant part of a ‘new big idea’ of sustainable development. This implies that environmental concerns were also addressed by the entrepreneurial sector and economic policies, aside from public opinion. Vanden Brande (2009: 158-162) states that it emerged as a synthesis of economic competitiveness, long-term thinking perspective and moral responsibility for environmental preservation. However, the most persuasive argument of the promotion and implementation of sustainable development has been a simple economic cost benefit analysis: in the long run, costs of environmental pollution significantly outweigh the benefits of unconstrained economic growth. Therefore, sustainable development is presented as a win-win situation. From the Maastricht Treaty on, the discourse of sustainable development is anchored among the main values of the EU as ‘a vision of progress that integrates immediate and longer-term objectives, local and global action, and regards social, economic and environmental issues as inseparable and interdependent components of human progress’ (Commission: Sustainable development). Consequently, sustainable development has appeared in many policies and programmes of the EU, notably its energy strategy. Subsequently, the global threat of climate change has amplified the dynamics of the trend of the extension of ‘green’ thinking and its integration across various policy areas and high international politics, as the intervention of environmentalist policies became urgent. In 2001 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published an analysis Working Group I: The Scientific Basis on the relation between human activities and climate change/global warming. It concluded that the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C, temperatures have risen during the past four decades in the lowest 8 kilometres of the atmosphere, [as a consequence of which] snow cover and ice extent have decreased, [and] global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased. (IPCC 2001a) Essentially, the IPCC states that all of these recent modifications can be ascribed to anthropogenic factors reflected in excessive GHG forcing (i.e. production of GHG emissions) since the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century (IPCC 2001b). If no action is taken to thwart the present trend of economic growth based on carbon combustion and consequent production of GHG, the IPCC predicts a gradual environmental deterioration, serious damage to biosphere, atmosphere and kryosphere stability. There would be a massive transformation of conditions of human life on the planet, such as geographic alterations leading to desertification, frequent occurrence of climatic extremes, food and drinking water scarcity, global increase of ocean level jeopardising coastal areas, glacier and permafrost melting and subsequent release of even more GHG will most likely occur. In 2007, the IPCC (IPCC 2007) claimed to have definitively confirmed the validity of climate change, re-insisting on the necessity to address the problem. Overall, climate change was established as an undeniable transnational threat caused by irresponsible and unsustainable activities of the humankind thus far. So, it was not only public opinion, entrepreneurs convinced of the necessity of sustainability, but also science who oblige high politics to pursue the issue of environmental degradation. 24 Evolution of the EU’s Climate and Energy policies Energy Roadmap 2050 2020 targets 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1998-2006: 12 Decisions/Directives/R egulations related to GHG emissions and climate change mitigation mainly in energy and transport 25 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Climate leadership: securitisation Barry Buzan (2007: 118) emphasises that climate action, as any other action addressing environmental threats, must be collective and on a global scale: ‘[v]ery few states have the capability to control the macro-developments by themselves and so the appeal to national security has no practical logic unless it can be linked to collective action’. The Commission concurs, and states that ‘fighting climate change can only make sense on a global scale. Europe on its own will not be able to halt climate change’ (Interview 1). Such a global transition must be ideally pushed forward and supervised by a trustworthy and respected leader. Consequently, the first step towards such a collective action was made by the UN (UNFCCC) 3 by means of the Kyoto Protocol (adopted in 1997 and enforced in 2005). Officially, this international agreement had two central aims: first, to multilaterally disseminate the IPCC’s conclusions and, second, to persuade attending countries to collectively adopt necessary measures to address the climate problem as a transnational threat. Therefore, the Kyoto Protocol and subsequent arrangement committed involved parties to set legally binding targets on emitting GHG in developed countries and introduced supportive mechanisms to realise these ambitions, such as the Emission Trading System (ETS), Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the last two of which enabled developing countries to contribute to solving the GHG issue (Roche Kelly, Oberthür and Pallemaerts 2010: 11, UNFCCC: Kyoto Protocol). The Kyoto Protocol was elaborated and concretised by means of the Marrakech Accords in 2001 and further internationalised at the UNFCCC Bali conference in 2007 (Oberthür 2008: 2,3). As the necessity of collective addressing climate change was broadly recognised and as it was believed to be a win-win scenario in line with the idea of sustainable development, the climate change discourse was embraced by many countries as a new principal issue of international cooperation and ‘high politics’ (Oberthür and Roche Kelly 2008: 35). Prior to the conference in Kyoto, the leader in sustainable development and climate thinking was the USA. For example, first emissions markets (SO2 and CO2) emerged in the USA already in the 1970s, during the Bush Sr. and Clinton administrations (MacKenzie 2009: 143, 148). However, it became obvious during Kyoto that the EU claimed a front position in the emerging discourse of climate change mitigation. The US abandonment of the Kyoto agreement assured the dominance of the EU in climate issues and its assumption of the mantle of ‘green’ leadership in the world. (Egenhofer and Alessi 2013: 1; Oberthür and Roche Kelly 2008: 36). In Vanden Brande’s words (2009: 161), ‘[f]rom the 1990s (…) the EU declared itself as economically, politically, but also morally predestined to exercise global environmental leadership’. This was considered to be a relatively natural process on the basis of four main points. Firstly, as Miranda A. Schreurs (2012: 5) put it, ‘[i]t was recognized that developed countries that have a historically larger responsibility for greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere should “take the lead in combating climate change”’. Secondly, Sebastian Oberthür emphasises that the dissemination of awareness of climate change and sustainable development and its translation to concrete domestic actions, such as outlined in the 1997 White Paper on renewables, made the EU appear as domestically the most progressive geopolitical bloc combatting climate change from the 1990s on. Ten years later, the EU unilaterally took measures in combating climate change, announced its 2050 Roadmap and intermediate targets and in 2010 it even established a DG 3 UNFCCC is an abbreviation of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 26 CLIMA fully dedicated to combat climate action. In this view, the EU’s Climate and Energy Package as outlined above is an essential part of the EU’s domestic action, a condition sine qua non in gaining appearance of being a credible leader (Oberthür 2008: 2,3,4, 7-9). Thirdly, David Criekemans (2010: 84-85, 88-90) concludes that the EU has been a geopolitical unit relatively strong in clean energy technology fields: the EU Member States are globally the greatest investor in research, development and innovation and in particular Germany, Spain and Denmark are home countries to a number of large companies pushing progression forward. Fourthly, the EU’s international identity as a normative power and global defender of public goods by civilian means (see chapter 2) on the one hand, and its strong emphasis on the merits of international cooperation and multilateralism on the other also predestined the EU to become the leader in climate change mitigation (Vanden Brande 2009: 168; Egenhofer and Alessi 2103: 1; Roche Kelly, Oberthür and Pallemaerts 2010: 260). The EU’s normative leadership can be seen as a culmination thus far of the EU’s normative commitment to addressing the climate problem and, generally, humankind’s unsustainable way of life. Even though the climate change discourse might have already reached its climax in the 2000’s, the EU has retained its leadership position so far. Despite having appeared to attenuate its proactivity on climate change at the Copenhagen conference in 2009, the EU still retains global leadership in this matter. Louise van Schaik (2012: 17) states that, in the meantime, the EU has reached more internal agreement and cohesion on climate policy, by which it could recently appear as a united and well-organised political entity ready to make progress in the internationalisation of climate change mitigation. Groen, Niemann and Oberthür (2013: 51-52) also state that the EU’s post-Copenhagen activities on climate policies have reasserted the EU’s leadership. An important factor in keeping the EU’s leading position credible is its clean energy development and other climate related policies by which low-carbon energy strategies retain their salience. Oberthür and Roche Kelly (2008: 39) state that the EU’s domestic action not only provides the EU’s leadership with credibility but it also makes the EU’s leadership aspiration attractive to internal players, as it is expected to reinforce internationalisation of the EU’s internal commitments ‘to provide a level of playing field globally’, in which the EU’s has the first mover advantage. These clean energy policies further legitimise the EU’s international leadership in this area, which makes the policies very ‘power convenient’ to the EU. Even though the EU’s official climate strategy is ‘leadership by example’ evolved from a paradigmatic leadership (Oberthür and Roche Kelly 2009: 35, 39), Louise van Schaik (2012: 7, 8) summarises four types and four styles of leadership most frequently applied to the study of the EU’s climate policy: Type Style Structural (related to actor’s hard power, dependent on its material resources) Entrepreneurial (related to diplomatic, bargaining) Cognitive (related to definition, redefinition of interests and ideas) Symbolic (related to posturing of political actors, but not followed by a substantive policy measures) Heroic (relies on long-term objectives, accompanied by political will) Hundrum (incremental, short term, political will absent) Transformational (leads to historical changes) Transactional (leads to incremental policy change) Source: Van Schaik 2012. 27 Contrary to the EU’s Kantian self-image, the EU’s leadership position is not power neutral, since its transnational recognition naturally engenders an influence on the other players. Oberthür and Roche Kelly (2008: 37) state, the EU’s ‘leadership approach correlates well with the notion of the EU as a civilian power in pursuit of a rule-based global governance in keeping with its normative preference for soft measures’. Therefore, it should be pursued in the name of the preservation and enhancement of global public goods. Yet, Martin Chemers (2000: 27) states that leadership in general is ‘a process of social influence in which one [actor] can enlist the aid and support of others in the accomplishment of a common task’. In other words, leadership is a kind of discursive hegemony, a process of indirect external governance during which a hegemon/leader influences internal milieu and developments of other actors. Loren R. Cass (2007: 9-10, 25, 27) states that ‘[a]ctors may use norms to pursue both ideational and material interests’, so ‘[n]orms may emerge that do not necessarily reflect the beliefs and preferences of most actors but rather reveal calculated norm compliance to achieve benefits and avoid costs.’ Therefore, dominance through climate norms does not need to be limited to the protection of public goods. In such a case, the norm is a catalyst towards supremacy. Hence, climate leadership is a power-loaded capability in the international system and a tool of exerting influence over others. The power quotient inherent in climate change discourse is accentuated by the extent to which it is securitised. Climate change and the unsustainable way of life are presented as major threats to the security of states and individuals. The EU has addressed it with great attention, emphasising the salience of the climate threat, aiming to avoid the worst case scenario. In this context, however, Barry Buzan argues that placing a topic on the security agenda is a decision with manipulative elements and far-reaching consequences to the topic securitised but also to both the securitising agent and the public as a recipient. Not only does securitisation of a transnational topic appear as a deliberate policy answer to ‘dangerous’ political realities, but referring to the dangerous ‘world itself is (…) a powerful tool in claiming attention for priority items in the competition for government attention. It also helps to establish a consciousness of the importance of issues so labelled in the minds of the population in large’. While this topic is politicised and thus prioritised, it maintains popular support. Securitisation can even justify taking extraordinary actions which do not always belong to the accepted mandate of democratic governance. Therefore, Buzan (2007: 287-289) emphasises that securitisation is often purposed to generate useful and convenient consequences to those who securitise. Because the EU has adopted climate change mitigation as one of its external action priorities, it makes the topic internationally securitised. As stated in the previous chapter, Sandra Lavenex (2004) contextualises the EU’s involvement in transnational issues such as climate change in order to ensure its own security, while a leadership position is the most effective way to pursue these self-regarding interests. Hence, although climate change mitigation is usually seen as a global Kantian norm, it is power-loaded due to its securitised background, with the Union being one of the main beneficiaries of this power. In such a case, the EU’s self-regarding interest gains the appearance of a universalist Kant-based NPE image. Reduced to clean energy policies, they provide the EU’s climate international leadership with both external and internal credibility, thus contribute to the maintenance of the profits derived from it. The following paragraphs will address the two remaining aspects of the policy triad on which clean energy has been built: competitiveness/employment and energy security. Analysis provided contributes to the assertion that clean energy development is self-centred and meet the characteristics of Neorealist logic of international competition and accumulation of power capabilities. 28 Clean energy development Justification Competitiveness and employment Justification Norm: Sustainable development & Climate change mitigation Energy security Environmental sustainability 3.2. Energy security Another part of the policy triad legitimating the EU’s clean energy development is energy security. The potential to which energy security can profit from clean energy development is significant and these benefits serve clean energy development as an important non-normative source of legitimacy. Currently, there is a large interdependence between the EU and non-EU energy exporting countries, which has been regularly reminded by recent (threatening) energy supply crises (Interview 1). However, scholars (Youngs 2009a: 44-49; Lahn etc. 2009: 10, 22; etc.) emphasise that interdependency can be beneficial for both involved parties, if symmetrical, because asymmetrical interdependence delivers asymmetrical distribution of benefits. In Neorealist terms, asymmetrical distribution of benefits is convenient to the prevailing party, while balanced dependence (in line with the logic of state equality and multilateralism) is advantageous to parties which would be otherwise disadvantaged. Chapter 2 concluded that the EU as a normative power is unable to effectively pursue its external interests vis-à-vis energy exporting countries, such as Russia, Algeria and some Caspian countries due to asymmetrical interdependence. A reduction of the EU’s energy dependencies on such energy exporting countries could help the EU enhance its power position towards such energy exporting countries and regions. Forthcoming paragraphs elaborate on the assumption that climate-based clean energy development delivers improvements to the EU’s energy security/dependency and these positive implications provide clean energy policies and actions with necessary legitimacy. Firstly, clean energy development contributes to the reduction of demand for external fossil fuels supply. Even though electricity consumption is expected to grow in the future, the Energy Roadmap 2050 predicts marginalisation of oil, coal (if no CCS is applied) and eventually also gas through energy efficiency, waste-to-energy and low-carbon energy installations, such as nuclear and renewables (Commission 2009). The link between these internal developments and the EU’s external relations is explained by Youngs (2009a: 27-28) as follows: ‘investing in domestic 29 energy efficiency was now [late 2000s] the best form of foreign policy. (…) [E]nergy security was a matter of reducing external dependencies, rather than strengthening interdependencies; of reducing pressures on foreign policy’. Oberthür and Roche Kelly (2008: 43) state that the EU’s energy supply concerns of the 2000s and ‘the security of future energy supplies to Europe have lent strong support to the development of stringent climate policies’. Consequently, Oberthür (2008: 46) and Youngs (2009a: 29) have already expressed some concerns about the impact of such a strategy on relations between the EU and energy exporting countries. So, some energy producing countries have already been worried about the EU’s switch to low-carbon energy as their European sales market is going to gradually dwindle. In a Neo-realist view, these countries fear a loss of power over the EU, whereby the power scales could gradually turn to the EU’s advantage. Consequently, the EU should be able to more effectively and pursue its external governance vis-à-vis these countries. Secondly, another important power advancement created by clean energy development is its implication for the EU’s energy mix. The deployment of clean energy development introduces new sources of energy, which have not only a substitute (above) but also complementary function. The more the energy mix is diversified, the less dependent on a single source and/or a single supplier a country or a region is. The positive effects of shale gas extraction on the EU’s self-sufficiency are obvious (Commission 2012a: 138). Moreover, highly dependent countries such as Poland and Lithuania have already expressed their particular interest in it, justifying their choice by the assertion that gas is low-carbon fossil fuel of the future decennia, and environmentally sounder than coal or oil (Teusch 2012; Youngs 2013: 14). Future construction in the Internal Energy Market is also expected to strengthen these functions, especially due to smart grids, high voltage energy highways, all of which are the result of the transition to low-carbon energy. The case of Lithuania confirms the existence of such strategic considerations. As far as oil, gas and electricity supply is concerned, Lithuania is largely dependent on the Russian Federation. According to local reports and the Commission (Interview 2, 3; Commission 2012c), the Lithuanian border price for these energy commodities is among the highest in Europe, when viewed from a purchasing power parity perspective. Therefore, Lithuania considers diversification of supply as a main priority of its national strategy: geographically, it builds new interconnections with neighbouring Member States and Sweden and with the construction of a new LNG terminal and storage facilities. In addition, it has plans to build a new nuclear power plant and further develop clean energy (biomass) in order to limit Russia’s dominance over Lithuanian energy mix (Ministry of Energy of Lithuania 2010). A Lithuanian spokesperson has stated the following: this is the strategy how to influence Russia’s leverage over Lithuania. [Renewables] is a very important option in a long term. (…) It contributes to the energy mix and having the whole energy mix realised inter alia thanks to renewables, it could change the monopolistic character of the Russian supply. (Interview 2) The official further stated that ‘[i]n the future, when EU becomes greener, EU becomes stronger against Russia’ (Interview 2). Overall, the case of Lithuania demonstrates that diversification of supply both geopolitically and per source is a way to gain some power by which the EU should be more resistant to pressures from energy exporting countries in both the political and economic sense. As an EU official concluded: ‘[t]hat said, a diversification of energy supply of any kind will lower the leverage others may have over the EU’ (Interview 1). 30 Additionally, some scholars (Verrastro etc. 2010: 24) state that clean energy development will merely shift geopolitical dependencies, but will not significantly decrease them. They nuance the enthusiasm based on the positive effects of clean energy deployment on energy self-sufficiency, stating that ‘such optimism should be tempered by concerns over the global availability (and concentration) of certain rare earth minerals and elements that will be used to build and run those new energy systems’. They conclude that these precious minerals and elements (Dy, In, Pt, Li, La, Re, Rh etc.) ‘may one day replace conventional fuels as strategic commodities (with associated geopolitical consequences for suppliers and consumers)’. However, as these metals are extracted in non-EU countries such as China, Canada, Russian Siberia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the EU is unlikely to become dependent on a single country or region with a relatively unstable polity. Further, import of precious metals are unlikely to cause infrastructural lock-ins as in the case of Russia’s oil and gas supply. Hence, if clean energy development does not promise a substantial decrease of external dependencies, it still does with respect to diversification of these dependencies both geopolitically and per source. Overall, all of these implications for the EU’s energy mix and external dependencies on fossil fuels further justifies the move towards clean energy transition. Importantly, the positive effect is mutually reinforcing but not purely normative: the power derived from gradual marginalisation of fossil fuels, balancing interdependencies, enriching energy mix and dispersion of dependencies makes clean energy development politically, strategically, but also economically convenient to EU’s energy and overall security, while all of the positive implications for energy security as summarised above are reached thanks to climate-related clean energy development. Additionally, when considering clean energy from a long-term perspective, fossil fuels prices are most likely to gradually rise in accordance with their increasing scarcity. In order to retain the competitiveness edge, substituting oil and gas by clean energy sources is probably the most rational decision possible. Hence, clean energy development might be normative, but also a convenient power tool. 3.3. Competitiveness, growth and employment Competitiveness, growth and employment is the last set of justification of the EU’s clean energy development. As in the case of energy security, enhancements in these tree variables are predominantly self-centred although derived from the EU’s commitment to green policies and actions. They further impact on the Union’s internal environment and competitiveness, mainly through the innovations they create, which are crucial to the retention of the EU’s credibility as a leader in climate control and as a proponent of ‘green’ endeavours. This relationship between the EU’s normative appearance and the self-centred aspects of competitiveness, growth and employment makes clean energy development appear as even less purely Kantian-normative. In the context of the EU, competitiveness, growth and employment became central elements of the 2000 Lisbon Strategy, in which the EU proclaimed its ambition ‘to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion’ (European Parliament 2000). Vanden Brande (2009: 162) points out that clean energy development was meant to contribute to this ‘“Lisbon madness” of pursuing high rates of economic growth and (…) competitiveness goals’ However, Bastiaan van Apeldoorn and Sandy Brian Hager (2010: 215) conclude, that the Lisbon policy framework undeniably reflects the EU’s self-interest. They state that Lisbon arose from neo-liberal, neo-mercantilist and social democratic political projects, the 31 last two of them are self-centred: the social elements seek ‘to protect and consolidate the “European social model” in a supranational regulatory framework’ and the neo-mercantilist elements are ‘determined to create a big home market –if necessary, protected by European tariff walls’. Therefore, clean energy development should be also seen as a strategy with selfcentred, power-related elements. Low-carbon transition is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the EU’s entrepreneurial sector. Development of a low-carbon economy, currently applied predominantly in the energy sector, implies a development of a new economic sector or considerable reconstruction of existing economic sectors to an extent related to low-carbon energy. Being the first who does so implies creating a comparative advantage over others as far as specific know-how and experience is concerned. The ECORYS informs that ‘the European companies are performing well on the global market. In three out of seven sectors (…) the EU has revealed a comparative advantage’ (ECORYS 2012: 8, 9). In order to retain or even enhance such a position, a highlyinnovative approach must be applied. Among the many observations, an EU official stated the following: [i]nnovation is key to Europe’s industrial competitiveness. While mature technologies – in renewable energy as in any other sector – are also produced in other world regions, innovation in the renewable energy sector are often coming from Europe and benefits its industry first. (Interview 1) Therefore, the EU’s innovation drive is encouraged by, for example, the SET-Plan, the emphasis on the importance of research and development and on the promotion of the increase in the amount of highly educated people in Europe (Ferrer, Egenhofer, Alessi 2011). Consequently, through provision of consistent support to R&D and innovation in sectors related to climate change, the EU supports its domestic companies through preservation of the first mover advantage for them (Vanden Brande 2009: 163). This internal progressiveness is not only beneficial to the competitiveness of individual companies but also to the EU’s position as leader on climate change. Whether the EU retains its credibility as a climate change leader, will depend on how it asserts itself against the ambition of the other players, its dedication to the development of new technology and know-how, and technological and policy assertiveness of the EU and other leadership aspirants, such as the USA, China, India, Japan, Brazil or any other ambitious pole of the international system (Criekemans 2011: 90-91). Additionally, effective utilisation of comparative advantage is expected to boost economic growth, thereby creating new employment opportunities (Verrastro etc. 2010: 22). As a result of the Lisbon Strategy, these jobs should be the result of clean energy policies and development of the research and innovation sectors and their material implementation. Pacini Costa (2009: 115) confirms this by her assertion that the ‘uptake of PV [photovoltaic cells installations] promotes new technological chains and the creation of skilled employment, all desired externalities on the policy-maker perspective’. Focused only on energy efficiency and renewables in the EU, ’[a]ccording to estimates, implementation of energy efficiency measures could lead to 2 million jobs being created or retained by 2020 and the development of renewable energy sources could lead to 3 million additional jobs by 2020’ (Commission 2012b). According to estimates, over 370,000 new jobs have already been created in Germany through renewable energy industries (Schreurs 2012: 7,8). Additionally, according to Bente Johnsen Rygg (2012: 167-175), the economic and social virtues of clean energy development can be so strong, that they can quite 32 effortlessly relegate negative effects of low-carbon energy installations on the environmental landscape. Still, the deployment of clean energy installations demonstrates the EU’s dedication to the green transition Overall, combating climate change has come to be a new socio-economic sector, in which the EU has, to a large extent, gained a comparative advantage, using it to boost its economic growth, increase employment and as a space to demonstrate its dedication to the green transition. As Vanden Brande (2009: 162) states, ‘Europe endeavours a low-carbon economy to give an incentive to new investments, job creation and competitiveness’. Such a strategy not only directly contributes to power enhancements vis-à-vis less competitive countries or countries adopting climate policies later, but it also contributes to the EU’s internal social cohesion, economic growth internal and external legitimacy, all of which can be considered to be selfcentred and power-enhancing qualities of the EU. Some scholars support this assertion by pointing out some measures and stances of the EU indicating a self-centredness beneficial to the EU’s competitiveness and employment. Louise van Schaik (2012: 4) claims that climate policies do not exclude protectionist measures aiming at the preservation of the EU’s competitiveness. Youngs (2009b: 4-5; 2013: 6-11) insists that the provision of financial support for the deployment of renewables in developing countries by the EU has been disappointing (with respect to hopes evoked by the EU by its preceding rhetoric), by which the clean energy technologies and knowledge are not effectively disseminated in such countries. He emphasises that the EU’s internal and external funding of climate change mitigation through renewables has been immense, which makes the EU appear as dedicated rather to its own development than climate change mitigation globally. In addition, free access to clean energy knowledge has appeared to be less free than stated by the Commission. So, Youngs (2013: 8) concludes that the EU seems to behave rather as a self-interested mercantilist bloc than a universalist normative power. Next to knowledge, the EU seems to also safeguard some of its own production chains related to clean energy development. Firstly, the EU appears to protect its biofuels production (Erixon 2012). Afionis and Stringer (2012: 117-120) assert that the main objective of the 2009 Directive on biofuels ‘is to limit imports of biofuels in order to boost their production domestically’. Basically, the EU gives preferential treatment to its own production of bioethanol and feedstock by means of high import tariffs justified by their insufficient environmental and social standards. However, this strategy thwarts further development and enhancements of biofuel chains in developing countries, which is yet usually less costly, more efficient and sustainable. On the opposite side, protecting the EU’s biofuels keeps the sector alive in the EU, thus maintains employment, potential for growth and research and innovation in this economic area. Secondly, a similar stance can be traced in the domain of solar panels. As a result of Chinese dumping policies on photovoltaic panels, in May 2013 the Commission introduced a punitive import tariff at an average of 47.7% on solar panels and components manufactured in China. In December 2013 these tariffs became definite and will apply for two years as of 6 December 2013. Notably, the main motivation for this reaction has been to save European solar panels industries from an imminent price war and possible collapse, even though making solar panels less expensive could be only beneficial to combating climate change (RAPID 2013; EU Business). Overall, Youngs (2010: 128) and Van Schaik (2012: 4) contextualise these two cases as a recent tendency of major EU Member States, such as France and Germany, calling for a closed door policy for lowcarbon products from emerging powers which are not explicitly involved in the climate norm 33 settled by Kyoto. Whether it is knowledge or production chain protectionism, it contributes to the maintenance of the EU’s competitiveness, employment, potential economic growth and international leadership, which are important sources of domestic legitimacy and consolidation, but also external leverage. Thus, the current EU’s clean energy policies are built on and justified by norms of sustainable development and climate change mitigation, but also on their positive effects on energy security, competitiveness, growth and employment, legitimacy and the EU’s position in the international system through climate leadership. So it is not only the sustainability and climate norms, which legitimises clean energy policies but also, crucially, the EU’s profit from it. Therefore, even though clean energy development is often presented as a normative policy objective addressing the causes of climate change, it is nuanced by the fact that a large ratio of its official rationalisation is self-centred and not only normative. In the following two sections, this conclusion will be complemented by examining two components not officially addressed by the Commission: the legitimacy of the EU project and coherence in energy matters. Coherence energy issues Legitimacy of the EU 3.4. Internal legitimacy The first of the areas positively affected by clean energy development, though not overtly proclaimed in the Commission’s description of the low-carbon energy transition is legitimacy of the European Union project (Oberthür and Roche Kelly 2008: 43). The current post-Maastricht legitimacy situation of the EU can be seen as a crisis due to a long-term trend of increasingly critical and negative public opinion towards to the project of the European integration (Segers 32). The on-going protracted crisis of neoliberalism and Eurozone has intensified this public disillusionment. As a consequence, resolute ‘Europe of Results’, further democratisation and policy adjustments towards the average citizen’s worries and interests have been identified to be the healing procedure to be initiated as soon as possible (Vanden Brande 2008: 9, 10; Orbie 2009a: 9). In this regard, as Vanden Brande remarks, the EU and especially the Commission adopted sustainability and climate change discourse as a rational response to the legitimacy crisis: In its quest for legitimacy the EU is looking for topics that people can relate to in the hope that this will make people feel connected to the EU. (…) Energy and climate change are policy areas where Eurobarometer results show that people want the EU to do more and where 34 people see the EU more fit for the job than the national level. (…) [T]he EU uses climate change and the way it communicates on climate change as a way to position itself not only towards the rest of the world but also towards its own citizens in an attempt to stimulate European identity formation. (Vanden Brande 2008: 6) Competitiveness gains, economic growth and positive dynamics in employment, energy security and the prestige through combating climate change locally and internationally are concepts which make the EU’s activities somehow perceivable by a majority of the EU’s citizens. Regarding the EU’s leadership in the climate change mitigation, Van Schaik (2012: 5) states that in the context of recent legitimacy crisis, ‘the EU moreover started to refer to climate change as one of the issues where the EU was able to implement effective policies and to play its part internationally’. Accordingly, climate change has been believed to reassert the relevance, social and popular engagement and overall advantageousness of the EU project. Climate change can also contribute to the legitimacy improvements through its positive effects on the Europeans’ identity. Thomas Diez states that a normative leadership is a factor in creating a normative difference through the process of othering. To be a leader on the climate norm means to intersubjectively consider others as different in the softest case, and therefore inferior, thus violating universalist/Kantian principles, constituting an existential threat. This constructs the leader’s own identity, which is as Vanden Brande states ‘a helpful tool to legitimise a regime such as the EU’. ‘Green’ Europeans are concerned about a global climate problem and it is ‘their’ Union which addresses it effectively, through global leadership role, while most other countries remain more reserved on that issue and might neglect its significance. Van Schaik (2012: 5) also says that ‘the EU’s climate policy (…) became strongly affiliated with the EU’s self-image and identity’. Overall, identity helps achieve an agreement between the Europeans and the EU institutions, thus pending legitimacy to the EU. Because legitimacy is a prerequisite or a central fundament of the EU fabric (although it might be taken as a matter for granted), any enhancement of it contributes to the power of the EU over both the internal European environment and vis-à-vis the other players in the international system. A consolidated, internally congruent and stable player in the international system is more likely to prevail than a unit suffering from legitimacy gap. 3.5. Coherence The last concept concerned is the coherence in energy policy preferences and procedures among Member States and the EU institutions. As Andrei V. Belyi states, the energy sector constitutes one of the most paradoxical sectors of the European integration projects, as ‘neither the energy security nor the energy market regulation has ever become the subject of supranational policy [while energy] had been the main cause of the European integration’ in the form of ECSC and EURATOM (Belyi 2009: 203, 204). This limited integration degree implies limited coherence and vice versa. The integration degree, i.e. higher EU competence (exclusive, shared, complementary) contributes to unity in external representation whether through creating higher preference homogeneity and EU socialisation or directly, while higher preference homogeneity and EU socialisation legitimises higher EU competence (Van Schaik 2013: 195). So, coherence and integration can have a mutually reinforcing relationship. However, Louise van Schaik (2013: 193-197) points out that the positive effect of this relation in reaching external advantage 35 cannot be taken for granted. Unity in the EU’s external representation does not need to lead to more effectiveness in international negotiations when the EU becomes ‘too’ coherent/EU-centred. In such a case, this coherence can have adversary effects on the negotiation milieu. However, in the context of alarming incoherence on energy security and liberalisation within the EU (Khrushcheva 2011), a more coherent external action in the form of more preference homogeneity and/or a higher degree of EU competence is most likely to improve the bargaining power vis-à-vis other actors of the international system, especially energy producing countries. Eventually, the more coherence in these areas the EU acquires, the more effectively it can pursue its dissemination of norms, convenient rules and practices (see chapter 2). According to Nicolas Jabko (2006: 100-102, 119), the construction of internal coherence in energy matters has been purposed by attempts to gradually Europeanise the energy sector through a common agenda of market liberalisation and the vision of the Internal Energy Market. However, as Andrei V. Belyi (2009: 214) states, the liberalisation process has been very protracted and not very efficient as most power over the energy sector remains disintegrated at the Member States level. Moreover, the liberalisation rationale referring to the benefits of building the Internal Energy Market seems to have lost its intensity particularly due the recent crisis of neoliberalism reinforced by the long-term opposition of some large Member States to the liberalisation of the energy sector (Youngs 2009a: 36-37). In this context, ‘green’ thinking could partially fill the gap left by the weakened market idea and be a next factor in forging more coherence among the Member States and the EU institutions. The norms of sustainable development and climate change mitigation could boost mutual understanding through harmonisation of preferences, as universal norms oblige actors to comply. If the governments and citizens are to (re-)confirm the validity of their postmodern enlightenment and responsibility derived from it, they have to act in harmony with such norms. Thus, having penetrated the public and political discourses, the green norms have facilitated the integration of the EU’s vision on low-carbon transition to supranational and national policies and other energy related topics (Natorski and Surrallés 2008: 71, 73; Groen, Niemann, Oberthür 2013). Consequently, if Member States disagree on their approaches to energy security, market liberalisation or other disputed topics, they do agree on the salience of combating climate change in the framework of sustainable development, which is reflected in clean energy development and other climate-related policies. So, consensus on sustainability and climate norms can be expected to generate some convergence of individual interests and preferences. Next to the normative essence, the adherence to green ideas can be expected to reinforce coherence also through its anticipated positive effects on energy self-sufficiency. As Youngs (2009a: 32) put it, ‘officials were also minded to argue that the EU’s leadership in climate change negotiations would serve as an additional basis for convergence on the more strictly strategic external aspects of energy policy [energy security]’. Energy security is a highly politicised and securitised policy, thus national concept due to the EU’s limited ability to control its external energy supplies (Natorski and Surrallés 2008: 73-75). The positive effect of clean energy development on the EU’s energy self-sufficiency might contribute to some de-securitisation of energy security, or at least to limit further extension of the energy supply securitisation, which could partially de-legitimise national authorities from pursuing purely national strategies in the matter of energy security, such as the German-Russian project NordStream. Ideally, this partial de-politicisation of energy supply could offer some space to de-nationalisation and subsequent 36 Europeanisation, through which Member States’ preferences would become predominantly harmonised and, eventually, coherent. Nevertheless, as Natorski and Surrallés (2008) emphasise, the logic of securitisation and de-securitisation has proved to be difficult to predict. Hence, this scenario remains highly hypothetical. Further, although the market idea has recently lost its power, the climate-based consent can also amplify the Member States’ commitment to market liberalisation, boosting the EU’s internal coherence on energy matters. As a Commission interviewee states The move towards a low-carbon energy system has of course repercussion on the internal energy market. (…) With an increasing share of renewable energy installations the effects on price formation and the design of markets become increasingly important. (Interview 1) In other words, the implementation of low-carbon development with current technologies incapable of stable supply (e.g. wind turbines and photovoltaic panels) necessitates the need to easily and flexibly trade energy between various regions to ensure stable energy supply. Liberalised market is believed to offer such a necessary flexibility. Indeed, since low-carbon energy transition necessitates market liberalisation, this relationship can be seen in the context of path dependencies. So, current developments in clean energy developments can be expected to make political elites favour market liberalisation. Consequently, if more Member States adopt a positive stance on market liberalisation, the EU will appear to be more coherent in the matter of market liberalisation. In addition, an overt adherence to the market liberalism approach in energy makes bilateral energy supply agreements less likely to occur. Oberthür and Roche Kelly (2008: 43, 44) state that this should make the EU’s external appearance as ‘the most fervent supporter of multilateralism [market liberalism] and international law as the backbone of global governance’ stronger and more credible, which is a very important power capability in reaching the EU’s milieu goals of multilateralism and market liberalism, especially in EU-Russian relations as considered in chapter 2. A similar conclusion is offered by some Neo-functionalists. Referring to Wayne Sandholz and Alec Stone Sweet’s recent defence of Neo-functionalism (Sandholtz and Stone Sweet 2012: 18), the increase in cross-border cooperation within a certain sector can facilitate subsequent integration of this sector: ‘[t]hose sectors in which cross-border transactions [trade, investment, travel, work but also communication] are more numerous and important should move faster and farther towards supranational governance’. The climate change discourse seems to fit well in this framework. The securitisation logic behind the climate change discourse should provide the integration process with importance, while numerosity should be ensured by further liberalisation of the energy market in combination with clean energy development as a decentralised or even democratised (ILSR 2011) way of power generation. Cross-border transactions are then expected to increase, especially as far as trade, investment and communication are concerned. So, in accordance with the mechanism of positive functional spill-overs, climate change could have some positive effects on further integration of the energy sector and enhancing sectorial coherence throughout individual Member States and eventually moving some competences to the Commission. An institutionalist perspective also predicts positive effects of clean energy on the Europeanisation of the whole energy sector. Oberthür and Roche Kelly (2008: 42) argue that the EU climate and energy measures so far should ‘provide a firm basis for the further evolution and strengthening of EU climate and energy policies’, implying ‘a major shift in emphasis and 37 competence from the member states to the European level’. This is one of the most effective manners to reach internal coherence on energy and energy-related issues (Van Schaik 2013: 9). Two legitimations of the European clean energy are energy self-sufficiency and climate change, and while the EU has only limited competence in the former, it is very powerful (at least normatively) in the latter. As a result, the EU’s competence over clean energy is much larger than over the ‘grey’, carbon-intensive energy sector. Gradual greening of grey energy implies an expansion of supranational governance over a sector in the hands of the EU. Such Europeanisation guarantees higher coherence in energy matters and this internal coherence can be then translated to much more bargaining power in international negotiations (chapter 2), more external prestige and credibility and thereby a better basis for an effective pursuit of external governance. In conclusion, this chapter has been written from a Neorealist perspective on the clean energy discourse adopted by the EU in order to uncover the positive effects of the low-carbon strategy on the EU’s power position vis-à-vis the other players of the international system. By doing so, it challenges the assumption that the low-carbon energy transition is predominantly normative, i.e. aimed to address anthropogenic global warming and environmental deterioration. In contrast, the transition towards low-carbon society has positive effects on the EU’s both internal environment and external leverage. Therefore, the provision of active political support to lowcarbon energy complements its Kantian normative function with self-regarding interest and selfcentredness. Based on the analysis, the Union’s adherence to the low-carbon transition makes the EU a more credible leader in international ‘green’ policies, more energy self-sufficient, more coherent in energy matters (as far as both liberalisation and energy supply policies are concerned), more economically competitive, more profoundly legitimised and accepted by its own citizens, and it also makes the EU stronger in the emerging multipolar world order. Dedication to clean energy enhances the EU’s ability to effectively function as a normative power, i.e. reach its milieu goals, contribute to its ability to disseminate convenient norms, such as multilateralism, market liberalism, state equality, sustainability and human rights, which is a way to realise its self-regarding interests. Hence, the EU’s dedication to clean energy cannot be seen as power-neutral. 38 Conclusion This thesis examines the EU’s dedication to low-carbon energy transition. From the late 1980s the EU has adopted environmentally sound discourses and applied them to various social and economic policies, including energy. As a result, the European institutions and Member States have been promoting new ways of energy generation and consumption in order to significantly decrease their GHG emissions. This research focuses on the motivation of the EU’s fervent embrace of such low-carbon policies. The critical perspective of this thesis challenges the concept of clean energy policy-making as being primarily normative. Political enlightenment, Kantian universalist altruism and long-term responsibility for the protection of the public good are not believed to precondition the materialisation of low-carbon discourse. Rather, the clean energy policy is analysed within the context of international struggle, and as a political tool for the accumulation of power in the global corridors of power. Accordingly, the main inquiry of this research was how clean energy transition can serve the EU as a means to enhance its position vis-à-vis the other players of the international system. The argument of this thesis was developed along three main chapters. The first chapter outlines the Neorealist theory in international relation, this being the main theoretical approach of this research. It expounds on its historical and ideational origins; and their relevance to this research. The second chapter considers the EU’s external governance as a normative power. It defines the origins and main characteristics of Ian Manner’s theory of Normative Power Europe (2002) and assesses the effectiveness of the NPE in the context of contemporary international relations. It concentrates on the EU’s conduct of foreign affairs towards energy-exporting countries and reveals the primary reasons for the ineffectiveness of the Union’s external leverage. The third chapter regarded the clean energy development and disclosed its power convenience as a complement to its Kantian normative quality. It critically analyses the EU’s international leadership in climate change mitigation, and its official legitimacy with respect to the clean energy transition. It further discusses the effects of clean energy vis-à-vis the popular legitimacy of European integration, energy security, and internal political coherence in energy matters. The most significant conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the universality of the EU’s norms and its relationship to the international power struggle are recognised as being intertwined. The cases of some energy-exporting countries (Central-Asian and Caucasian countries, Russia, Algeria and Venezuela) imply that the recognition of what is established to be a universal value and norm cannot be taken for granted. In the Neorealist view, such recognition most often occurs when it proves advantageous to the recipient or when the promoter exercises leverage on the recipient. While the EU’s values are primarily conceived to serve its self-regarding interest, and especially for the gain of leverage, the outright indifference or even opposition of energy-exporters (e.g. Russia, Algeria, Turkmenistan and Venezuela) especially in the realm of multilateralism, market liberalism and human rights, frustrates the EU’s international position. Thus, by rejecting the EU’s concepts and norms, these nations negate the Union’s quest for power acquisition through the realisation of its milieu goals. Therefore, if the EU wants its normative governance to be effectual, power advantage over the other members of the international system is paramount. The awareness of Kant’s universalism in itself proves to be insufficient. 39 Secondly, the EU’s efforts at normative governance have only been partially successful. The effectiveness vis-à-vis energy-exporting countries has two main causes: dependency on external fossil fuels supply and internal multi-level incoherence on energy matters. The EU’s dependency on fossil fuels imports has long had an increasing tendency. This interdependency has been moving towards asymmetrical proportions, causing a decrease in the EU’s bargaining power vis-à-vis the energy-exporting countries, thereby threatening its credibility as a powerful bloc. Similarly, internal incoherence on energy matters between individual Member States and the Commission weakens the EU’s external leverage. Russia (Gazprom) and Algeria (Sonatrach) in particular spurn the EU’s attempts to liberalise local energy sectors. They argue that the EU itself does not pursue a liberal approach both internally and towards countries exporting fossil fuels to Europe. Consequently, the EU must accept rules of games (milieu) set by external players. Thirdly, the EU’s clean energy transition is a power-loaded strategy. Energy transition is a crucial source of international credibility for the EU’s leadership in climate change mitigation, an effective tool to reach milieu goals. This leadership also generates a comparative advantage for domestic entrepreneurs, which is beneficial in the economic (growth, competitiveness), political (leverage, legitimation) and social (employment, cohesion) sense. In combination with the popular green background of clean energy, the socio-economic benefits (employment) provide the EU with internal legitimacy, necessary for long-term stability at the EU-level, a prerequisite for strong positioning in the international system. Importantly, clean energy contributes to a gradual decrease in the consumption of fossil fuels, thus diminishing the Union’s external dependency, having positive implications for the EU in the political, as well as economic sense. This can be expected to offset the imbalance to the EU’s benefit, providing it with better bargaining power in international negotiations, and in particular, with energy-exporting entities. Clean energy also contributes to the building of internal multi-level coherence in energy matters. Improvements in internal coherence are especially important in the EU-Russian and EU-Algerian spheres. It improves the Commission’s competence in energy as the Commission is the main policy-maker and coordinator in low-carbon transition. The deployment of clean energy installations necessitates adherence to energy sector liberalisation. Discursively, green values incorporated in energy oblige European governments to embrace a new energy thought, which also contributes to preference convergence. Fourthly, clean energy is a particularly important power means in the context of an emergent multipolar international order. Though the EU is currently one of the global leaders, Neorealist theory questions the sustainability of this position by predicting competition among power poles as a natural tendency towards the establishment of hierarchical relations in the international system. Being (more) energy self-sufficient, less dependent on external supply, having a highly competitive and sustainable industrial basis, being internally consolidated and appearing as a more coherent bloc are clearly very valuable power capabilities in the competition for imminent power struggles. Therefore, clean energy development can be also understood as an opportune investment in future struggles for a front position in the international system. The thesis reveals that the EU’s clean energy transition has a number of functions convenient to the EU, whether in the form of domestic stability preservation or as external leverage improvements. Clean energy should therefore be perceived not only as an environmentally friendly strategy, but also as a means to power. The EU’s dedication to clean energy is not only motivated by its normative ‘green mission’, but also by its internal legitimacy and its desire for 40 external power dominance. With these conclusions, the hypothesis set forth in this thesis is substantially proven. These conclusions contribute to scientific debates on Normative Power Europe, the EU’s place in the international system and clean energy transition. Clean energy transition can be seen as a Kantian norm, convenient to the NPE in accordance to Manner’s theory. Further, validates the interconnectedness between power, international leadership and domestic action suggested by Louise van Schaik, as well as Sebastian Oberthür (etc.) and Edith Vanden Brande. However, it positions the power element as an extraordinarily dominant driving force, while universal norms are subject to power considerations. Nevertheless, it must be pointed out that this thesis may have been subjected to certain limitations with respect to latent motivations contributing to the Union’s green agenda. For instance, the research is prevalently backed by a rational-choice theory assuming power maximisation to be the foremost driving force. However, it cannot be excluded that some non-rational forces have been also playing an important role in the adoption of green discourses in Europe. It is possible that constructivist and institutionalist input into the Union’s energy policy might figure in future scientific debated with its inevitable revelations. Further, this thesis finds that the recognition of certain norms’ universality depends on their advantageousness and external power factors. While this research focused primarily on the EU, an analysis of the motivation behind the current global ‘green bandwagoning’ would appropriate. Similarly, a Neorealist explanation of the US, Japan, China and other’s embracement of green policies could also be an interesting input for future analyses. 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