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The Future (of IT) Steve Prentice GVP & Chief of Research Hardware & Systems Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. Notes accompany presentation. select Notes view. These materials canthis be reproduced onlyPlease with Gartner’s officialPage approval. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner's official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]. The Paperless Office …….? Not yet! But introducing …. Semiconductor Technology — Creating the 'Perfect (Digital) Storm' ??'s Law (More Storage Capacity) Moore's Law (More Computing Power) 2009 Disk shipments exceed 200 ExaBytes per annum Increasing Integration Chips become more complex and more general purpose ("system on a chip") 2006 > 10 billion processors shipped p.a. Gilder's Law (More Bandwidth) Metcalfe's Law (More Valuable Networks) 2012 Installed base of processors > 200 billion Note: 1 Exabyte = 1 million Terabytes Technology Trend #1: The Consumerization of Technology Technology: Defining what is AVAILABLE — Increasing price performance Commoditisation/Consumerisation The Problem with Infrastructure Societal: Describing what we DESIRE — IT-enabled lifestyle, growing automation, Knowledge work, rise of individualism Organisation: Dictating what is REQUIRED — Flexibility and agility become paramount "organisation" to "organism" "local suppliers" to "globally sourced" "command and control" to "sense and respond" "internal control" to "transparency and regulation" Technology Trend #2: Virtualisation of Infrastructure IT virtualization is the pooling of IT resources in a way that masks the physical nature and boundaries of those resources from resource users. Scale Up Scale Out Technology Trend #3: From Products to Services Financial Abstraction IT’S All Virtualization OVER ! Meta OS App. App. App. App. Service Governor Network OS OS HW I/O HW I/O I/O I/O Ownership was the only option Automation Real-Time Infrastructure Optimization Demand Resources Resources Identities/Security Availability Policies IT service definitions Service agreements Business priorities Provisioning Workloads/Data Services That meet business requirements Increasing Abstraction via Virtualisation and Wrapping virtual Systems with System governors And increased Automation - Policy-based - Service Oriented - Active Management Technology Trend #4: It’s Software Jim, but not as we know it! ISE BPA WS* CEP … App. View Billing SODA – Service-Oriented Development of Applications APS Web Services Price SES Service Portfolio Management Integration Platform Invoice SOBA – Service-Oriented (and Event-Driven) Business Applications Other Services New Packaged Services, Services Wrapped Legacy WSM Construction View Business Process Portfolio The Coming Ecosystem Wars! Orchestration Services BPM ? Process BAM Maps … Process View The emergence of an Adaptive Business Process Platform Technology Trend #5: Welcome to the Wireless World! Enabling wireless technologies – Zigbee, Bluetooth for nodes now, UWB and NFC later (with autolocation) – 802.11 for “edges” – WiMAX backbone 802.11 Anchor WiMAX or wired backhaul 10 – 100m Shrinking “Smart” Objects – Cheap, small devices – Everything gets a radio – Self-assembling mesh networks – Location aware (lat., long., alt., time) – Plum size >>>>> Smart Pills km Delivering an “Always On” Society Edge node Sensor node I’m Here! Technology Trend #6,7,8,9,….. The Next Big Thing? Quantum Science Nanotechnology Peer-to-Peer communications ……? Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable Sony takes 3-D cinema from Magic! Arthur C. Clarke (1962) directly to the brain The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies Semantic Web Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users External MPP Grids Inkjet Processes Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years More than 10 years LEPs/OLEDs Service-Oriented Architecture Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices Micro Fuel Cells Electronic Ink/Digital Paper Social Network Analysis Really Simple Syndication Web-Services-Enabled Business Models Wikis Information Extraction Mesh Networks — Sensor Mesh Networks — Wide Area Augmented Reality Trusted Computing Group RFID (Item) Smartphone Computer-Brain Interface/ Thought Recognition Internal MPP Grids VoIP Tablet PC Wi-Fi Hot Spots Peak of Inflated Expectations Internal Web Services Location "Aware" Services Protein-DNA Logic Technology Trigger Speech Recognition for Telephony and Call Center Instant Messaging RFID (Case/Pallet) Truth Verification Molecular Transistors Key: Time to Plateau 802.16d WiMAX Unified Communications UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia Visibility As of July 2004 Trough of Disillusionment Maturity Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Technology: Defining what is AVAILABLE — Societal: Describing what we DESIRE • Commoditisation/Consumerisation • Virtualisation • Pervasive Connectivity • Individualism/Collaboration • “Do it Myself” - Personal • Work/leisure • APPLIANCES The Way Things Work! • CONTROL Organisation: Dictating what is REQUIRED "command and control" to "sense and respond" Process, Standardisation, Repeatabilty Externalisation & Services AGILITY The Future (of IT) Steve Prentice GVP & Chief of Research Hardware & Systems Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. Notes accompany presentation. select Notes view. These materials canthis be reproduced onlyPlease with Gartner’s officialPage approval. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner's official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected].