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Transcript
The Future (of IT)
Steve Prentice
GVP & Chief of Research
Hardware & Systems
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.
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presentation.
select Notes
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These materials
canthis
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onlyPlease
with Gartner’s
officialPage
approval.
These
materials
can
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reproduced
only
with
Gartner's
official
approval.
Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]
Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]
The Paperless Office …….?
Not yet!
But introducing ….
Semiconductor Technology —
Creating the 'Perfect (Digital) Storm'
??'s Law
(More Storage
Capacity)
Moore's Law
(More Computing
Power)
2009
Disk shipments
exceed 200
ExaBytes per
annum
Increasing
Integration
Chips become more
complex and more
general purpose
("system on a chip")
2006
> 10 billion
processors
shipped p.a.
Gilder's Law
(More
Bandwidth)
Metcalfe's Law
(More Valuable
Networks)
2012
Installed base of
processors > 200
billion
Note: 1 Exabyte = 1 million Terabytes
Technology Trend #1:
The Consumerization of Technology
Technology:
Defining what is AVAILABLE —
Increasing price performance
Commoditisation/Consumerisation
The
Problem
with
Infrastructure
Societal:
Describing what we
DESIRE —
IT-enabled lifestyle,
growing automation,
Knowledge work,
rise of individualism
Organisation:
Dictating what is REQUIRED — Flexibility and agility become paramount
"organisation" to "organism"
 "local suppliers" to "globally sourced"
 "command and control" to "sense
and respond"
 "internal control" to "transparency
and regulation"

Technology Trend #2:
Virtualisation of Infrastructure
IT virtualization is the pooling of IT resources in a way that masks the
physical nature and boundaries of those resources from resource users.
Scale Up
Scale Out
Technology Trend #3:
From Products to Services
Financial Abstraction
IT’S All
Virtualization
OVER
!
Meta OS
App.
App.
App.
App.
Service Governor
Network
OS
OS
HW I/O HW I/O
I/O I/O
Ownership was the only option
Automation
Real-Time Infrastructure
Optimization
Demand
Resources
Resources
Identities/Security
Availability
Policies
 IT service definitions
 Service agreements
 Business priorities
Provisioning
Workloads/Data
Services
 That meet
business
requirements
Increasing
Abstraction via
Virtualisation and
Wrapping virtual
Systems with
System governors
And increased
Automation
- Policy-based
- Service Oriented
- Active Management
Technology Trend #4:
It’s Software Jim, but not as we know it!
ISE
BPA
WS*
CEP
…
App. View
Billing
SODA – Service-Oriented
Development of Applications
APS
Web
Services
Price
SES
Service Portfolio
Management
Integration Platform
Invoice
SOBA – Service-Oriented
(and Event-Driven)
Business Applications
Other
Services
New
Packaged Services,
Services
Wrapped Legacy
WSM
Construction View
Business Process
Portfolio
The Coming Ecosystem Wars!
Orchestration Services
BPM
?
Process
BAM Maps
…
Process View
The emergence of an
Adaptive Business Process
Platform
Technology Trend #5:
Welcome to the Wireless World!

Enabling wireless technologies
– Zigbee, Bluetooth for nodes now, UWB
and NFC later (with autolocation)
– 802.11 for “edges”
– WiMAX backbone

802.11 Anchor
WiMAX or wired
backhaul
10 – 100m
Shrinking “Smart” Objects
– Cheap, small devices
– Everything gets a radio
– Self-assembling mesh networks
– Location aware (lat., long., alt., time)
– Plum size >>>>> Smart Pills

km
Delivering an “Always On” Society
Edge node
Sensor node
I’m
Here!
Technology Trend #6,7,8,9,…..
The Next Big Thing?




Quantum Science
Nanotechnology
Peer-to-Peer communications
……?
Any sufficiently
advanced technology
is indistinguishable
Sony takes 3-D cinema
from Magic!
Arthur C. Clarke (1962)
directly to the brain
The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies
Semantic Web
Linux on Desktop for
Mainstream Business
Users
External MPP Grids
Inkjet Processes
Less than two years
Two to five years
Five to 10 years
More than 10 years
LEPs/OLEDs
Service-Oriented Architecture
Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices
Micro Fuel Cells
Electronic Ink/Digital Paper
Social Network Analysis
Really Simple Syndication
Web-Services-Enabled Business Models
Wikis
Information Extraction
Mesh Networks — Sensor
Mesh Networks — Wide Area
Augmented Reality
Trusted Computing Group
RFID (Item)
Smartphone
Computer-Brain Interface/
Thought Recognition
Internal
MPP
Grids
VoIP
Tablet PC
Wi-Fi
Hot
Spots
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Internal Web Services
Location
"Aware"
Services
Protein-DNA Logic
Technology
Trigger
Speech
Recognition for
Telephony and
Call Center
Instant Messaging
RFID (Case/Pallet)
Truth Verification
Molecular
Transistors
Key: Time to Plateau
802.16d WiMAX
Unified Communications
UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia
Visibility
As of July 2004
Trough of
Disillusionment
Maturity
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Technology:
Defining what is AVAILABLE —
Societal:
Describing what we DESIRE
• Commoditisation/Consumerisation
• Virtualisation
• Pervasive Connectivity
• Individualism/Collaboration
• “Do it Myself” - Personal
• Work/leisure
• APPLIANCES
The Way
Things
Work!
• CONTROL
Organisation:
Dictating what is REQUIRED
"command and control" to "sense
and respond"
 Process, Standardisation, Repeatabilty
 Externalisation & Services


AGILITY
The Future (of IT)
Steve Prentice
GVP & Chief of Research
Hardware & Systems
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.
Notes
accompany
presentation.
select Notes
view.
These materials
canthis
be reproduced
onlyPlease
with Gartner’s
officialPage
approval.
These
materials
can
be
reproduced
only
with
Gartner's
official
approval.
Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]
Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — [email protected]