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Jean R. Anastasia, Ph.D. Biology Department Suffolk County Community College Global Change Global Warming Ocean Acidification Ozone Depletion Greenhouse Effect Gases trap heat near the earth’s surface •Water Vapor, Methane, •CFCs (chloroflourocarbons), •CO2 (carbon dioxide) Global Warming: Impacts Sea-level Rise Causes of Sea Level Rise Addition of heat Addition of freshwater + Thermal Expansion Total sea level rise = Melting ice caps, mountain glaciers, ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica Potential Contributions Thermal Expansion: Melting Land ice does! Sea Ice Melt Does NOT raise sea level So does iceberg calving Measuring Sea Level the Old Fashioned Way Tide Gauge Observations 150 3.2 mm/year Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year 100 2.0 mm/year MSL (mm) 50 ~ 8 inches (20 cm) 0.8 mm/year 0 -50 -100 1880 1900 1920 1940 Year 1960 1980 2000 [Church and White, 2006] Measuring Sea Level the Modern Way Altimeter Record of Global Sea Level Sea-level Rise: Locally Equals a change of 0.80 feet in 100 years. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8514560 Future Sea-level Rise In 1997, estimates predicted that the global average sea level will rise by 7.2 to 23.6 inches (18-59 cm or 0.18- 0.59m) by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 (IPCC 1997) New Research says it could be 3x as much as predicted by the IPCC, from 1-2 m (40-80 inches) by 2100 (Vermeera and Rahmstorfb 2009) Sea-level Rise The red line is measured by tide gauges . The green line shows sea level change as measured by satellite. The purple shaded area represents the range of model projections for a medium growth emissions scenario (IPCC SRES A1B). For reference 100mm is about 4 inches. Source: IPCC (2007) Sea-level Rise is not even •Currents reshape ocean surface •Ocean warming is not even •Winds change as planet warms http://climate.nasa.gov/blogs/index.cfm?FuseAction=ShowBlog&NewsID=239 Red areas will flood in about 100-200 years Blue areas may flood over several centuries http://www.epa.gov/climat echange/effects/coastal/slr maps_sealevelmap.html Over the next century, sea level is most likely to rise 55-60 cm along most of the U.S. Atlantic Red areas would flood during spring high tides http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/slrmaps_ne_liny.html Sea Level Rise Impacts Sea-level Rise: Impacts Human population along the coast http://propertybrazilestate.com/images/8/80 1.jpg Sea-level Rise: Impacts Flooding of coasts and increased erosion Island Nation of Maldives in Indian Ocean Sea-level Rise: Impacts Flooding of wetlands http://science.kennesaw.edu/~jdirnber/oceanography/LecuturesOceanogr/LecSaltMar sh/salt_marsh.jpg Sea-level Rise: Impacts Flooding of wetlands http://saltmarshlife.com/image/FOOD%20WEB%20SALT%20MARSH%204.jpg Sea-level Rise: Impacts Impact on Coral reefs “Drowned reefs” http://serc.carleton.edu/images/eslabs/cora ls/polyp_with_zooxanthellae.jpg http://gc.kuty.cz/redsea/coralpolyp.jpg Global Warming: Impacts Coral Bleaching Corals loose their algae Associated with warmer temperatures http://jroy.abenaza.com/wpcontent/uploads/2008/04/coral-bleaching1.jpg Coral Bleaching Linked to Increased Temperatures Fig. 14-15, p. 340 www.marinephotobank.org/photocenter/stories.php Coral Reefs are very diverse ecosystems… Their decline will impact thousands of species http://kentsimmons.uwinnipeg.ca/16cm05/1 116/50-23b-CoralReef.jpg Ocean Acidification CO2 dissolves in water to form carbonic acid (H2CO3) A weak acid found in soda Lowers the pH of the ocean http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/climatechange/2009/04/ Ocean Acidification Measured by pH scale Lower pH is more acidic A reduction of 1 pH unit means the water is 10 times more acidic pH of seawater is about 8.0-8.3 pH has already dropped by 0.1 unit since preindustrial time pH may fall an additional 0.3 by 2100 (Doney 2006) Ocean Acidification: Impacts Lowers the amount of carbonate ions available and reduces the ability of organisms to make calcium carbonate skeletons Organisms Threatened by Increased Marine Acidity © 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Calcium Carbonate When there are decreases in pH, CaCO3 will be more likely to dissolve and organisms that utilize CaCO3 may suffer Plankton Doney (2006) Scientific American • these plankton species are important food sources for many organisms Coccolithiphores www.gaac.gsfc.nasa.gov Bloom in the Bering Sea off the coast of Alaska Sea Urchin Larvae: Abnormal development in low pH From Impact of Ocean Warming and Ocean Acidification on Larval Development and Calcification in the Sea Urchin Tripneustes gratilla. PLoS ONE, 2010 Issue 6, p1-7, Oysters: lower fertilization success with more CO2 Parker et al (2009)The effect of ocean acidification and temperature on the fertilization and embryonic development of the Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata (Gould 1850). Global Change Biology, Sep2009, Vol. 15 Issue 9, p2123-2136 Mussels and oysters make shells slower when pH goes down (more acidic) pH of 8.2 Coralline algae disappear Snail shells are deformed pH of 7.3-7.6 Hall-Spencer et al (2008) Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification. Source: Nature, 7/3/2008, Vol. 454 Issue 7200, p9699, Coral Reefs will be destroyed if Temp goes up and pH goes down O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science 318, 1737 -1742 (2007) Fig. 5. Extant examples of reefs from the Great Barrier Reef that are used as analogs for the ecological structures we anticipate for Coral Reef Scenarios CRS-A, CRS-B, and CRS-C (see text) Published by AAAS Ocean Acidification: Impacts increased sensitivity of corals to bleaching as a result of acidified seawater conditions Anthony KRN, Kline DI, Diaz-Pulido G, Dove S, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2008) Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:17442–17446 •Increased bleaching •Decreased ability to make food •Decreased ability to make their shells ©2008 by National Academy of Sciences Anthony K R N et al. PNAS 2008;105:17442-17446 Ocean Acidification: Impacts Decrease in protection from storms that reefs provide to coastal areas UNEP-WCMC, "In the front line: Shoreline protection and other ecosystem services from mangroves and coral reefs (United Nations Environmental Programme–World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK, 2006). Decrease in reef fish species diversity In Asia alone coral reefs provide about one-quarter of the annual total fish catch and food to about 1 billion people . UNEP, "Marine and coastal ecosystems and human well-being: A synthesis report based on the findings of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" (United Nations Environmental Programme, 2006). Will stress already overstretched fisheries resources. Ozone Depletion Ozone (O3) Natural sunscreen- protects from UV rays CFCs (Chloroflourocarbons) depleted ozone layer Ozone Hole Sept. 24, 2006 the Antarctic ozone hole was equal to the record single-day largest area of 11.4 million square miles The blue and purple colors are where there is the least ozone, and the greens, yellows, and reds are where there is more ozone. Credit: NASA Ozone Hole 1979 2009 Ozone Depletion: Impacts Phytoplankton (single celled algae) lower photosynthetic rates inhibition of nutrient uptake damage to DNA Helbling and Zagarese (2003), Vincent and Neale (2000) and Häder et al. (2007). Ozone Depletion: Impacts Higher mortality rates for zooplankton These are important links in the food web Also are larval forms of many species Crab Life Cycle Marsh Crab Larvae Survival 100 1995 80 60 40 1996 2000 1000 0 1998 0.2 0.1 0.0 100 80 60 diurnal-UV diurnal-No UV semidiurnal-UV semidiurnal-No UV 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 Time (d) 3 4 UVBR intensity -2 (mW cm ) Percent Survival 0 Light intensity -1 -2 (mol s m ) 20 Survival is lower when exposed to UV Fiddler Crab Larvae Survival 100 1995 80 60 40 1996 2000 1000 0 1998 0.2 0.1 0.0 100 80 60 diurnal-UV diurnal-No UV semidiurnal-UV semidiurnal-No UV 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 Time (d) 3 4 UVBR intensity -2 (mW cm ) Percent Survival 0 Light intensity -1 -2 (mol s m ) 20 Survival is not consistently lower when exposed to UV UV does not penetrate far into the water— Can’t plankton just move lower? Estuarine Larvae Behavior And get carried out of the estuary away from predators Geographical ranges of U. pugilator and S. cinereum relative to the location of tidal regimes and study sites along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States (12, 24) Morgan S G, Anastasia J R PNAS 2008;105:222-227 ©2008 by National Academy of Sciences Ozone Depletion: Impacts Changes in zooplankton behavior Some Zooplankton Can’t Behaviorally Respond to UV Fiddler Crab Larvae Survival Is low when they stay in the surface waters and are exposed to UV U. pugilator Percent Survival 100 80 Diurnal - Dark Diurnal - Light Diurnal - UV 60 Semidiurnal - Dark Semidiurnal - Light Semidiurnal - UV 40 20 0 10am11am12pm 1pm 2pm Day 1 Time 10am11am12pm 1pm 2pm Day 2 And Some Zooplankton Can respond to UV by Migrating Away Survival of larvae in "vertical migrations w/ & w/o UV" experiment Marsh Crab Larvae Survival Is higher when they are free to migrate away from UV S. cinereum Percent Survival 100 80 Diurnal - Dark Diurnal - Light Diurnal - UV 60 Semidiurnal - Dark Semidiurnal - Light Semidiurnal - UV 40 20 0 10am11am12pm 1pm 2pm Day 1 Time 10am11am12pm 1pm 2pm Day 2 Behavioral Changes can have other effects If larvae migrate out of surface waters… They will not be exported out of estuaries Will be subject to increased predation by fish If larvae migrated to deeper waters to avoid UV They won’t be transported out of estuaries They will be exposed to fish predators in the estuary… more larvae will die Ozone Depletion and Increased UV Can lead to more larvae dying This lower the amount of adult crabs and has ecosystem effects on other species Ozone Depletion: Recovery A Happy Ending… Montreal Protocol 1997 CFC use has been phased out The thinning of the Ozone layer has slowed Ozone Recovery Ozone Hole Recovery 2006 2009 In a NASA simulation, a world with no controls on chlorine and bromine pollution leads to extreme ozone loss (blue hues) over Antarctica. Controls on pollution are projected to prompt a recovery of the ozone hole later this century. Schiermeier (2009) Atmospheric science: Fixing the sky. Nature; Vol. 460 Issue 7257, p792-795 Without the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the amount of ozone-destroying compounds would continue to rise, driving up skin-cancer rates. Schiermeier (2009) Atmospheric science: Fixing the sky. Nature; Vol. 460 Issue 7257, p792-795 The Recovery of the ozone layer is one example; It is my hope we will continue to move in the right direction. How Ozone Depletion Works Ozone (O3) Natural sunscreen- protects from UV rays CFCs depleted ozone layer UV light breaks the Cl (chlorine) free from CFCs Cl reacts and gets stored as two chemicals (hydrochloric acid, and chlorine nitrate) which are stable In Antarctic Winter, Polar Vortex winds isolate the air and cause the two stable chemicals to change to more active forms, such as Cl2 (chlorine gas) When spring comes (Aug – October), the UV light splits the Cl2 into free chlorine atoms which ultimatley destroy the ozone Ecological feedback processes on a coral reef showing pathways of disturbance caused by climate change Boxes joined by red arrows denote that the first factor has a negative (decreasing) influence on the box indicated. Green arrows denote positive (increasing) relationships. Over time, the levels of factors in hexagonal boxes will increase, whereas those in rectangular boxes will decline. Boxes with dashed lines are amenable to local management intervention. Published by AAAS O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science 318, 1737 -1742 (2007)