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RESEARCH METHODS IN BUSINESS STUDY MATERIAL SUPPLIED FOR THE COURSE BM 512 OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION UNDER THE SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCES , TEZPUR UNIVERSITY, and prepared by MRINMOY K SARMA. It should be noted that the material is supplied as a part of the course curriculum and is in no way exhaustive. Business Research has been used as an instrument for reducing managerial errors in decision making. Some of the researches conducted in the actual business field are routine, while some are commissioned for a specific one-time purpose. However, it may not be taken for granted that research will always provide with the right answer to a particular problem. In fact, it is reported that almost 70% of the researches conducted all over the world either offers inaccurate information or misleads the decision maker. When Xerox initially wanted to launch the copier machine, out of three market researches commissioned, two advised the company against the proposed launch. The remaining agency predicted a turnover of only 8000 machines within the next 6 years. Xerox launched the product and sold more than 80000 (eighty thousand) pieces within the next 3 years. New Coke, Ford Edsel are few of the classic examples of the victims of market research. There are many reasons for which a research may lead to inaccurate results. Errors may creep in at every stage of the research process. For example, sometimes a wrong approach might be taken, while in some other cases a wrong instrument may be adopted. Therefore, adherence to the correct method of conducting a research is the prerequisite of success. The Research Process: The following is the flow of research process. However, minor variations are found in different books. Establish the need for information Specify research objectives and information needs Determine research design and source of data Develop the data collection procedures Design the sample Collect the data Process the data Analyse the data Present research results We will be discussing here the highlighted portions of the process. Designing the Sample: This includes the following jobs: 01. Decide about the method of sampling to be employed 02. Decide about the sample size 03. Select a sample Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 2 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Before proceeding let us have a look at the cases where sample drawing is necessary. In many a situations it is not possible to make a census (100% enumeration of the total elements), like in case of measuring the attitude of the target customers on a new packaging or on a new advertising campaign. For that matter, in case of Opinion Poll on the results of a general election it is just next to impossible to contact all eligible voters and to know their preferences. The cost involves in doing so would be too much (in fact, as much as the cost of the general election itself) which would negate the usefulness of the Opinion Poll. Thus, we do take recourse to sampling methods for the following reasons: Economy in Money and time, Not to destroy or contaminate the population, and Sometimes for more accuracy. (explanation will be offered in the class) At this juncture the meaning of the following frequently used terms are explained. Elements: About which information is sought; may be human, Product, Stores, Company etc. Population (or Universe): Aggregate of all the elements defined prior to selection of the samples. Population must be defined in terms of Elements : …as defined above Sampling Units: The element(s) which are available for selection at some stage(s) of the sampling process, like Chemical Engineers may be sampled from a business organisation whose turnover is more than Rs.5 crore in the last financial year. For example, if we are to select samples from among the males aged over 50 years form households from blocks of the cities having more than 5 lac of population we have the following multistage Sampling Units: Primary S.U.: Cities above 5 lac of population Secondary S.U.: City Blocks Tertiary S.U.: Households Final S.U.: Males aged over 50 years. this is the element Extent: Coverage in respect of geographical area of the elements or sampling units. Time: The time period within which samples are drawn. Sampling Frame In case we are interested in drawing samples through probabilistic methods (which are explained later in this material), a sampling frame is necessary. A sampling frame is the means of representing the elements of the population. This may be a Telephone Directory, Employee Register or a Voter’s list. Though in many social science research problems the sampling frame often difficult to define, proper car must be taken to find and establish a sampling frame before proceeding further with the research process. Maps also serve frequently as sampling frames. This is useful in case of area sampling. A perfect sampling frame is one in which every element of the population is represented once and only once. Examples of perfect frames are rare, however, specially when we are interested in sampling from any appreciable segment of a human population. Errors in the sampling frame may be exclusion or multi inclusion of elements in the frame. These are known as frame errors. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 3 © Mrinmoy K Sarma However, one does not need a sampling frame to take a non-probability sample. Sampling Unit A sampling unit is the basic unit containing the elements of the population to be sampled. It may be the element itself or a unit in which the element is contained. For example, if we want to sample males of 21 years of age, it might be possible to meet each sample directly. In this case, the sampling unit would be identical with the element. However, if we were interested in sampling children below the age of 10, it would be easier to meet them in their residence in presence of their parents. In this case, the sampling unit is the household and the element is the child below 10 years of age. In any case of interview, further specification of the sampling unit is required like should we interview the person who answers the doorbell first, if he/she is an element of our study population. Interviewing whoever remains present at home, may sometime lead to overrepresentation of women and elderly persons in the sample. Therefore, for surveys, where random samples of an adult population is desired, a random selection must be made from the adult residents of each household (sampling unit in this case). The ‘next birthday’ method (where the birthdays of adults are taken and the person whose birthday falls first is interviewed) is the simplest method to use in such a situation. Many innovative methods can also be used, which might be the result of creativity of the researcher. We can select sampling units in different stages. Suppose we are interested in selecting samples which are residents of a town having a population of 1 lac or more, having residing near a main street, and female more than 30 years of age, we will have to take up sampling units as follows: Primary s.u : Cities with more than 1 lac population. Secondary s.u : Main streets. Tartiary s.u : Households. Final s.u : Females of more than 30 years of age. Statistic: These are the characteristics of a sample. Parameter: These are the characteristics of a population. Symbols: for Population for Samples Size: N n Mean: x S.D.: s Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 4 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Steps in Selecting a Sample: Define the population in terms of 1. Elements 2. Units 3. Extent and 4. Time Identify the sampling frame Determine the sample size Select a sampling procedure These two steps can also be performed simultaneously Select the sample We have already discussed about the first two steps. The third step would be discussed later, along with various methods of drawing sample. There are many different sampling procedures by which researchers may select their samples. But one fundamental concept must be dealt with at the outset - the distinction between probability and non-probability sampling. In probability sampling each element of the population has a known chance of being selected as a sample. The sampling is done by mathematical decision rules that leave no discretion to the researchers. It is to be noted that there is a difference between known chance and equal chance. Equal chance probability sampling is only a special case, which is called simple random sampling. Probability sampling gives us a distinct advantage over non-probabilistic sampling; that is, this allows to calculate the likely extent to which the sample value differs from the population value of interest. This difference is called sampling error. In non-probability sampling, the selection is based on some part of judgment of the researchers. There is no known chance of any particular element in the population being selected. Therefore, it is not possible to calculate the sampling error. The different available fundamental sampling procedures are, 1. 2. 3. Probability Sampling Non-probability sampling Simple random Sampling Stratified Sampling Cluster Sampling a. Systematic Sampling b. Area Sampling 1. 2. 3. Convenience Sampling Judgment Sampling Quota Sampling Convenience Sampling: This is based on the convenience of the researchers. Therefore, it is unclear about the actual population. One such example would be people-on-the-street interview by a television interviewer. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 5 © Mrinmoy K Sarma In this case, the difference between the population value of interest and the sample value is unknown, in terms of both size and direction. And we can not measure the sampling error. And clearly therefore, we can not make any definite conclusive statement about the result of such sampling. Thus, this type of sampling is appropriate at the exploratory stage of the research. Judgment Sampling (or Purposive Sampling): Here the basis is expert opinion on the usefulness of selecting a particular element as the sample. For example, in test marketing, a judgment is made as to which cities would constitute the best ones for a particular product targeted to a particular group of customer. Or the decision about interviewing a particular dealer regarding a new incentive scheme would definitely call for expert opinion or past experience of the researchers. Here also, the degree and direction of error is unknown, and definite statement regarding findings of the survey is not meaningful. However, if the expert’s judgment was valid, then such result would be more representative than that of a convenience sampling. Quota Sampling: This is a special type of purposive sample. Here the researcher takes explicit steps to obtain a sample that is similar to the population on some “pre-specified” controlled characteristics. e.g., a interviewer may be instructed to select half of the interviewees from people 30 years of age and older and the other half under the age of 30. Here the control characteristic is age of the respondents. In real life the interviewer may have to face more control characteristics like age, educational background, place of residence (urban or rural), etc. In such a situation the researcher will have to use his discretion to obtain samples from each of the categories equally, as far as possible. This method is the most widely used among all non-probabilistic methods of sampling. Almost 47% of the American firms use it frequently and almost 39% use this method “sometimes”. In the above example, if the age is divided in four categories ( under 15, 16 to 25, 26 to 50 , and 51 and above) place of residence into two categories, educational level into four categories ( under HSLC, Graduates, Post Graduates and Professional degree holders) and add another variable ,income level ,with five categories ( income per month below (Rs.) 5000/-, 5001/- to 7500/-, 7501/- to 10000/and 10001/- and above) we will have 4 x 2 x 4 x 5 = 160 sampling cells. In this case we may have equal number of representation from each of the 160 cells. The number of representation can be derived by the following method. Multiply the population size by desired proportion from each cell Disadvantages of quota sampling are - the proportion of respondents assigned to each cell must be accurate and up-to-date. This is often difficult and impossible. The “proper” control characteristics must the selected . It is also not possible to include more variables due to practical difficulty. Even these problems are solved, interviewers may not be able to select actual respondents for interviews. This method is useful in preliminary stage of the research , if done with care, they can provide more definite answers. However, such results are less valid than a probability sampling. Simple Random Sampling: This is the most frequently used method of sampling. In such sampling we select the sample randomly. But for this method to be successful two preliminary conditions must be fulfilled: 1. Each element must get an equal chance of being selected Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 2. 6 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Each combination of the n sampling elements has an equal chance of being selected. The first condition says that every element must be equally likely top be selected, like a blindfolded man taking out a ball from a bag full of balls of different colours and of equal size and weight. The second condition says that if we are to select 4 samples from a population of 16 elements, than every combination (there would be 16C4 nos. of combinations) would have equal chance of being selected. For simple random sampling we use Random Number Table (supplied in the class). For calculation of population parameter following formulae are used. = X 2= x N = OR N and fX f S.D.= 2 for drawn samples: Sample mean x x n (X)2 ( Sample Variance s = X 2 )/ df _ n df = n- ( no. of statistic calculated, generally 1) S.D. of the sampling distribution (the Standard Error) Sx= s n The Classical Theory of Statistics: This theory would help the students in understanding the properties of normal distribution which is very important in understanding the behaviour of sampling distribution and useful in grasping the hypothesis testing fundamentals. The sampling distribution of mean and statistical inferences: In any population there are many possible sample groups. The classical statistical inference is based on what happens when one repeatedly selects different sample groups from the population. If we repeat calculation of mean of the sample twice, thrice, and n times we find that the sample mean closer in value to the population mean , would tend to repeat more frequently than others. If, now, we plot this mean value in a graph we would find a bell shaped curve. This is normal distribution curve. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 7 © Mrinmoy K Sarma This distribution is known as sample mean distribution or sample distribution . It is important in two ways: 1. The sample mean in this distribution is distributed around the population mean in known way, 2. Using this distribution, we can determine how closely the sample statistics are distributed around the population parameter. FOR FORMALISATION OF THE NATURE OF SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION OF THE MEAN we consider the Central Limit Theorem of Statistics: 1. If a population distribution of a measure is normal the sampling distribution of the mean is also normal. 2. If the population distribution is non-normal the sampling distribution of the mean approaches normal as the sample size increases. 3. The mean of sampling distribution of the mean is population mean. In the type of situation in which the expected value of the mean of the sampling distribution for the statistics is the parameter or population value the statistic is said to be unbiased. 4. The S.D. of the sampling distribution of the mean is the population S.D. divided by the square root of the sample size. This value is often called the standard error of the mean. As in practice we do not know or so we estimate them with X and s 68% 95% 99.7% There is an important aspect about the normal curve. 1. 68% of the cases will be within + 1 standard deviation of the mean 2. 95% of the cases will be within + 2 standard deviation of the mean 3. 99.7% will be within + 3 standard deviation of the mean. The above diagram depicts a normal curve with area under +1,+2, +3 standard deviation of the mean. Other characteristics of the normal curve: a. b. c. d. The curve is of a single peak; it has the bell shape. The mean ( ) lies at the centre of the normal curve Median and mode are also at the centre, i.e., mean = mode = median Two tails never meet the horizontal axis. CERTAIN FREQUENTLY USED TERMS IN RANDOM SAMPLING: Confidence interval: Let us assume the followings for ease of our calculation and understanding: s = 2.88 and n = 5 as found in particular sampling statistics calculation. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 8 © Mrinmoy K Sarma and mean of the sampling distribution is 22.6. ( already calculated) Then the standard error or the (s.d. of the sampling distribution)2 is Sx 2.88 5 1.3 Now let us calculate the size of the intervals at + 1 standard deviation from the mean, +2 s.d., and + 3 s.d. from the mean. At +1 s.d. the inteval is 22.6+ 1.3 = range 21.3 and 23.9 We know that 68% of the means from our sampling distribution are contained in this interval if our calculated sample mean X is truly the mean of the sampling distribution. Thus at the + 2 s.d. the interval is 22.6 + 2 ( 1.3) = 22.6 + 2.6 = range 20.0 and 25.2 Again we know that 95% of the means from our sampling distribution are contained in this interval if our calculated sample mean X is truly the mean of the sampling distribution. These intervals are known as Confidence intervals. The first interval was 68%, the second one was 95% confidence interval. Sampling fraction = n N The sampling fraction can be used to estimate the total population usage of product or services from the total sample usage. Suppose that a sample of 5 students out of the population of 50 ) used a total of 35 liters of petrol per week . Then the estimated total population usage of petrol would be, Total sample usage Sampling fraction = 35/ (5/50) = 35/.1 = 350 liters. Determining the sample size: After understanding of sampling error and non-sampling error, let us have a look at the sample size determination. In simple random sampling for a known sample size , we calculated the confidence interval of our estimate at a given level of confidence. To do this for a continuous measure we have the following information: 1. An estimate of the mean, x 2 An estimate of the standard deviation, s 3 A sample size 4 A level of confidence 5 Using items two and three, we calculated the standard error, s x. We then calculated the relevant confidence interval. The equation to do this at 95% confidence level was Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme Confidence interval = x 2 9 © Mrinmoy K Sarma s n We have calculated the x and s, and we know n, so we can solve this equation for the confidence interval. Or, we could calculate the precision we obtained using part of the above equation as follows, Precision = s n Now, suppose we want to reach a level of given precision. If we have a value for s, we can solve this equation for the required sample size. Let us illustrate this. Suppose at the 99.7 % level of confidence we wish to obtain an estimate of the mean age of a target segment for a new magazine that is within + 1.5 years of the true mean age. In addition , we will assume that we have an estimate of s= 6.0. The required sample size is obtained by solving the following equation for n: Precision = + 1.5 years =+3 1.5 = s n 6 n 18 n 1.5n n = = 18 12 n = 144 this 3 comes from the equation of determining the area under the normal curve at.99.7% confidence level. Thus, with a sample size of 144 will give us a precision of + 1.5 years, if s= 6. Here we have used absolute precision. If we express the precision level in terms of percentage we call it relative precision. In this situation the formula would be b. x =+ s n b = percentage of precision level x = the estimate of mean s Here also the should be multiplied by the coefficient at desired level of coefficient. n Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 10 © Mrinmoy K Sarma The most disturbing thing in our calculation of sample size is that we need to know the value of s for absolute precision and a value of s in case of relative precision. x If we have these values, in all likelihood, we already know what we intend to know. Also, for absolute precision the required sample size varies (a) inversely with the size of the precision desired, (b) directly with s, and (c) directly with the size of the confidence level desired. In most studies we want to measure many variables. To the extent that they differ in terms of precision desired , s, or confidence level, the required sample size will differ. There is no one-sample size that is statistically optimal for any study. The only way to assure the required precision would be to select the largest sample. However, if a researcher has experience with the problem at hand , then very accurate estimate of s are likely to be available at the time the sample size is being planned. No one should accept the sample size generated by the statistical formula blindly. One reason for not doing so is the existence of non-sampling errors. Non-sampling errors increase as the sample size increases. Therefore, a carefully done study of 200 samples might give, sometimes (but not always), better result than that from a sample size of 2000. Sample size and other factors: In any kind of business research one is always to find out a compromise between technical elegance and practical constrains. These constrains are definitely effect the decision regarding the sample size . Some of them are 1. Study objectives 2. Time constrain 3. Cost constrain 4. Audience acceptability 5. Data analysis procedure The sample size determination procedure becomes complicated with more number of variables are taken for analysis. Other methods of Sample size determination: 1. Unaided judgement 2. All-you-can-afford 3. Average size in similar studies 4. Required size per cell in case of quota sampling 5. Traditional statistical methods ( as discussed above) Stratified Sampling: Stratified sampling calls for division of the total population into some sub groups and then collect samples from each such group. The underlying objective of this method is to reduce the standard error of the estimator. Thus the confidence interval we calculate will be smaller. The method: 1. 2. Divide the total population into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive groups or strata. Perform an independent simple random sample in each stratum. Let us have the following notations: Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme Nst.1 Nst.2 nst.1 nst.2 Xst.1 Xst.2 s2st.1 s2st.2 11 © Mrinmoy K Sarma = population in the stratum 1 = population in the stratum 2 = sample size in stratum 1 = sample size in stratum 2 = sample mean of the stratum 1 = Sample mean of the stratum 2 =sample variance of the stratum 1 = sample variance of the stratum 2 Disproportionate Stratified Sampling: The overall sample size n be allocated to strata on a disproportionate basis with the population sizes of the strata. Normally, we can reduce the standard error by sampling heavily in strata with higher variability. Therefore, to reduce standard error we should draw heavy sample from strata whose population is more variable in nature. Past experience and earlier studies can give us data regarding variability in strata. Therefore, in such situation the samples from each strata differs in number and this is known as disproportionate stratified sampling. Cluster Sampling: In cluster sampling a cluster or a group of elements are randomly selected at one time unlike the other methods, where individual elements were picked up one by one. Therefore, the population here also, should be divided into mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive groups. We can select randomly any of these groups. If we select groups thus, and use all the elements in the selected groups as samples, it is known as one-stage cluster sampling. Or if we had selected a random sample elements from within the selected groups this is known as two-stage cluster sampling. In cluster sampling we try to form groups as heterogeneous as in the population (this is just opposite to the stratified sampling, where, we try to formulate strata as homogeneous as possible), so that selected samples from any of the groups would be representative of the total population as a whole. If the groups are less heterogeneous than that of the population, then the standard error from such sampling will be more than that of the simple random sampling. Systematic Sampling: In systematic sampling the researcher select every Kth element in the sampling frame , after a random start somewhere within the first k elements. Suppose we want to select a systematic sample of n=5 from a population size of 50 then the K will be k= N/n = 50/5 = 10 The steps will be, 1. Obtain a random number between 1 and 10, This element will be picked up first. 2. Add 10 to this random number. This element will be the second element of the sample. Then add another 10 and pick up that sample and so on. Systematic sampling is easy and cheap to use. This is a close substitute of the simple random sampling. Here, we do not need the complete sampling frame unlike in the simple random sampling. However, the problem of periodicity might occur without the knowledge of the interviewer. Area Sampling: In each of the above sampling procedure a complete accurate listing of the elements of the population is required . Unfortunately , for a great many business research applications such lists are Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 12 © Mrinmoy K Sarma impossible to find. Therefore, in area sampling the area where the sample reside is taken into consideration and samples are selected accordingly. Frequently used version of are sampling is Multi Stage Area Sampling. The steps involved in MSAS are described below. Here a hypothetical case of MSAS is described. Stage 1: Divide India in 5 zones. North, East, South, West and Northeast. Stage 2: A listing is made of the states fall within each of the zones: Thus in the northeast seven states namely, Assam, A.P., Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland,,Tripura and Meghalaya. This type of listing is done for every zones. Then a state from the selected zone in stage 1 is selected. Stage3: Another list of major cities is to be prepared of the selected state. Thus if Assam was selected randomly the major cities will be, Guwahati, Tezpur, Jorhat, Tinsukia, Nagaon, Nalbari , Silchar, Dibrugarh, Mangaldai ( or may be all district Hqs). Then a particular city is selected Stage 4: Then a ward of that particular city is selected . Stage 5: Then a street of that particular ward Stage 6: Then a house from the selected street. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 13 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Concepts of Measurement and Scaling Once a research problem is defined and a particular plan of action is chosen to solve the problem, three main components needed to be decided. Designing questionnaire, determining sample size, and sampling technique including finalisation of field procedures. In many cases of practical interest -- new product concept testing, corporate image measurement, advertisement effectiveness measurement, and the like the researcher will seek information of various nature -- even of psychological dimensions. If useful data are to be obtained from the field the researcher will have to exercise cautions in deciding what is to be measured and how to make the measurement. This is to be decided before preparing the questionnaire and starting field operations. Thus measurement of a business phenomenon is fundamental to providing any meaningful information for decision making. The objective of measurement is to transform the characteristics of objects into a form that can be analysed later. Therefore, the object under study must be defined so that this can be measured. Many researchers (specially the student researchers) blunder here and try to measure the object without pre defining the objects under study. Definitions in Research: An important part of practice of research entails construction, use, and modification of definitions of objects. ”Attitude", "aggressiveness" "leadership capabilities" "job satisfaction" can not be measured as it is, since these things can not be described objectively. Vague definitions can not be measured, and therefore, cannot be used for further decision making. Definitions can be distinguished into two classes --Constitutive definition and operational definition. Constitutive definition is roughly similar to a dictionary definition. An operational definition establishes the meaning of an object through specifying what is to be observed and how the observation is to be made. Measurements and operational definition go together. That means the researcher will have to get an operational definition of the object under investigation. Let us take the example of "job satisfaction". Operational definition would suggest the individual components to be measured to collectively arrived at a decision regarding "job satisfaction" of a particular group of workers. In business research measurement process involves using numbers to represent the business phenomena under investigation. Stated formally, the empirical system includes marketing phenomena, such as buyer reaction to products or advertisement, while the abstract system includes the numbers used to represent the business phenomena. The Measurement Process Empirical system Physical Sciences Measurement Social Sciences Abstract System Number System Measurement Defined: It is the assignment of numbers to characteristics of objects or events according to rules. Effective measurement is possible when the relationship existing among the objects or events in the empirical system directly correspond to the rules of the number system. If this correspondent is misrepresented, measurement error occurs. Types of Scales: Scales have been classified in terms of the four characteristics of the number system. These scales of measurement are nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio. The following chart compares the four scales of measurement. The understanding of the types of scales of measurement is necessary because analytical procedure differs according to the type of the scale. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 14 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Characteristics of Measurement Scales Scale 1. Nominal 2. Ordinal 3. Interval 4. Ratio Number system Unique definition of numerals ( 0, 1,….,9) Order of numerals 1<2, 2<3, 5>4 etc. Equality of difference 3-2=8-7 Equality of ratios 2/4 = 4/8 Characteristics No origin, no order and no equality of differences No origin, no equality of difference. But with order No origin. But with order and equality of difference With origin, equality of ratios, and order Questionnaire A questionnaire is a formalised schedule for data collection. The basic job of questionnaire is to measure the variables under study. This is the most widely used primary data collection techniques, and used throughout the world for social science researches. Questionnaire is one of the methods through which the empirical system definition (operational definition of the variable) is converted into abstract system of the number system, which measures the variables under consideration. If something goes wrong in this process measurement error occurs. The next paragraphs are used to discuss the principles of perfect questionnaire construction, which can reduce this error to the minimum. There are 5 basic components of the questionnaire. They are (1) Identification Data, (2) Request for Cooperation, (3) Instruction, (4) Information Sought, (5) Classification Data. Identification Data contain the respondent’s name, address and other relevant information, which might be used at a later date to identify the respondent from the questionnaire. Often these information First Page of Questionnaire are collected from some secondary sources like the sampling Identification Data frame before selection of sample and therefore, as one of the first steps of data collection. Normally, this information is written in a separate sheet of paper, which is not shown to Request for Cooperation the respondents. Many researchers put a code mark in the beginning of the questionnaire, which may indicate the identification of the respondent. The code mark is put in a prominent place in the first page of the questionnaire, like in the right-hand-top corner of the page. The code may be of any nature – alfa or numeric or both. However, care should be taken to see that these codes can be entered into the data sheet of the SPSS or any other software package, which will eventually be used for data processing and analysis. In this code itself the time, date and place of the interview may also be recorded. However, separate code may be used for this purpose, or otherwise this may directly be written at in a pre specified prominent place of the first page of the form. Request for Cooperation: A request is made to the prospective respondents for their help and cooperation by the researcher. In this components the researcher should spell out very briefly the objectives of the research, how this is going to help him or an organisation and why and how the respondent is selected for the interview. However, sometimes for the sake of extracting unbiased responses, the identity of the sponsors may not be revealed anywhere in the questionnaire. Many researcher use creative ideas here to motivate the subject (subject is a world frequently used in place of respondent in areas like psychology and medicine, where the subjects are monitored for physical or psychological responses after a particular experiment etc.) to ensure willing and accurate responses Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 15 © Mrinmoy K Sarma from them. The mention of tentative time required to fill up the questionnaire just after the request is of utmost importance. The required time may be gathered during the pilot survey itself. The average time taken to fill up the questionnaire during the pilot survey may be used as the tentative time required. However, if there are many changed after the pilot survey, a new average may be gathered through another pilot survey. Instructions are the comments and hints about the questionnaire itself or about individual questions there in. The instructions help the respondents or the interviewers in fully understanding the questionnaire and the individual questions and thus help in having accurate measurements of the variable under study. The instructions common for all questions may be put in the beginning of the questionnaire just after the request for cooperation. However, the hints regarding a particular question may be put just after the question in different distinguishable letter font and within brackets. The letter fonts must be same for all kinds of instructions throughout the questionnaire, and must not be more eye catching than the letter fonts used for writing the questions itself. Many researcher use italics and one size smaller (than the size used for the questions) of the same letter font as in the questions. The instructions should be precise and easily understood by the respondents, and as such this is no place to show the researcher’s proficiency or knowledge (of word stock) in English. The sentences should be short and preferably without any idioms. Information sought is the most important part of the questionnaire, which deals with the questions itself. This problem is taken up below under the headline Questionnaire Design. Lastly, classification data are used to classify the respondents on the basis of some predefined criteria. Income level, age, sex, educational background, profession etc. of the respondents may consist the classification data. The questions regarding these should normally be asked towards the end of the questionnaire. Questionnaire Design According to Kinnear and Taylor, two well-known authorities in marketing research, questionnaire design is more of an art than a science. No amount of steps and procedures will ensure an effective and efficient questionnaire. The skill through which researchers make effective questionnaire can be acquired only through experience and hard work. The only way to begin is to develop as many questionnaires as possible and then analyse them for weaknesses and pitfalls. As mentioned earlier, the measurement of the variables is the very preliminary step towards writing a questionnaire. Likewise Research Design, Sources of Data, Target Respondents etc. are to be considered initially before starting the formal process of questionnaire design. These are known as previous decisions. It must be mentioned here that more heterogeneous the target group more difficult is the job of preparation of a single questionnaire for the entire group. A perfect link between the information need and the data to be collected must be established before proceeding. The data to be collected must have absolute link with the information need. Otherwise the data collected would not be able to meet the requirement of the research objectives and thus all efforts will be invalid. To ensure a perfect link, the research objective must be divided into certain sub-objectives beforehand. The sub objectives then should be tested for the needed information, how the information are to be collected, what kind of sources of data are to be adopted etc. If primary data were decided to be collected, the target group of information providers should also be identified. Then the researcher must decide about the variables those are to be measured to achieve the required sub-objective(s). The variables are then measured as mentioned earlier. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 16 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Preliminary Considerations for Questionnaire Preparation RESEARCH OBJECTIVE (S) INFORMATION NEEDS INFORMATION NEEDS VARIABLES TO BE MEASURED SOURCES OF DATA METHODS OF ANALYSIS TO BE USED TARGET GROUP OF RESPONDENTS SCALES OF MEASUREMENT QUESTIONNAIRE The Scale of Measurement of each variable is to be determined ahead of the beginning of questionnaire writing. The diagram titled Preliminary Considerations for Questionnaire Preparation explains the process of arriving at preliminary considerations. [The diagram will be discussed in the class with examples.] In the following paragraphs a six-step process of questionnaire preparation is discussed. The process is depicted in the following diagram. Steps in Questionnaire Design Question contents Response format Question wording Question sequence Physical characteristics Pilot survey, revise and finalise Decision about Question Contents Decision concerning question content centre on the general nature of the question and the information it is designed to produce according to the preliminary considerations. Five major issues and problem areas are involved with question contents. 1. The need for the data asked for by the question: In general, every question in the questionnaire must be able to make contribution to the problem at hand. Here decision is to be taken on how the researcher is going to use the data generated by the question? If a satisfactory answer cannot be provided, the question should not be retained in the questionnaire. A Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 17 © Mrinmoy K Sarma question must be asked if and only if it helps in measuring a particular predetermined variable(s). However, in case of certain situations an irrelevant question may be asked if the researcher thinks it as suitable in creating easiness in answering few questions that follows. Or for involvement of the respondents and creating a rapport before asking a sensitive question. Like if the intention of the researcher is to ask for TV watching habit of the respondents, he can ask a question whether the respondent enjoy watching TV. 2. Ability of the Question in Producing Relevant Data: Once it is assumed that the question is necessary, the researcher must make sure that the question is sufficient to produce the required data. Sometimes, a single question may not be enough to measure a particular variable. Like determining the level of disposable income of the respondent. In this case the researcher may ask for many indirect or cross-questions at different places of the questionnaire so as to ascertain the level of the respondent’s spending during a particular period of time, if in the opinion of the researcher a direct question is not going to give a accurate result. Actually, the researcher may decide about this while deriving the sub variables for measurement. 3. Ability of the Respondent to Answer Accurately: Once it is decided that the question is necessary and sufficient, next task in front of the researcher is to ensure that the subject knows the accurate answer of the question. Inability in the part of the respondent to answer a question accurately may be resulted from three situations. The respondent may have never been exposed to the answer. It is found that the respondents tend to answer a question even if he/she does not know the answer. This often leads to serious measurement errors. To avoid this error the researcher may take a two pronged strategy: a) eliminate such respondents (whom the researcher thinks may not have an accurate answer) in the sampling frame itself; and b) more realistically, encourage the respondents to leave the questions blank when they do not know the accurate answer. [Can you find out some tactics for implementing the second strategy? Also can you visualise what kind of errors might arise if we implement the first strategy wrongly? If you have the answers, offer them in the class]. The second situation arises when the respondent is forgetful. People are asked questions, answer to which they once knew but now forgotten. Like the date on which they bought their TV set or the Microwave oven? Researches have found out that people tend to forget the information rapidly just after being exposed to them, and then they continuously do so over the passage of time. It is a well-known fact that the probability of forgetting an event is related to the importance the subject has attached to the event and the frequency of occurrence of the event. Like if you ask a 50-year-old about the amount of his first pay cheque, in all probability he will remember it accurately. (Now, whether he will be willing to share that information with you is another matter.) There are few dangers for the researcher from the forgetful respondent. Researches have also found out that there might be omission (simple forgetfulness), telescoping; i.e., the respondent is remembering an event as occurred recently, while actually it happened long back; and creation, which occurs when the respondent tries to create an imaginary event. When the researcher is interested in finding out the facts about an infrequent or unimportant event the questionnaire designing becomes difficult. (Is not it difficult to define what is “important” or “unimportant” in the lives of so many respondents you have not met yet). Aided Recall can be used as one of the solutions, where respondents are given some probable solutions (like in the multiple-choice questions) of the question. However, in aided recall method, there is a high chance of occurrence of creation error, which may be reduced by using some bogus or wrong choices in the solution panel. The third situation arises when the respondents are able to answer accurately but not willing to give the accurate answer. There might be two situations again. a) The respondent refuses to answer. In this case apart from having a high non-response rate, no other error occurs. b) The respondent willingly offers incorrect answer. There might be many reasons because of which the respondents may not be willing to cooperate. He may think that the situation is not conducive to offer the right answer, or disclosure of the data will be embarrassing, or the disclosure might be a potential threat to the respondent’s prestige or normative view. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 18 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Here the researcher's job is to motivate the respondents to offer the accurate response. Financial incentives are widely used to achieve this. However, some other measures like designing the questionnaire in innocent manner, which assures that the answers are not going to be used against the respondents may also be used. One interesting technique, though with some limitations in analysis, is randomised response technique. This may be used to address the problem of non-response to an embarrassing question. In this method the researcher presents the respondents with two questions, separately from the other questions in the questionnaire. One of the two questions will be the intended question, while the other will be irrelevant for the research and will be very general, like the month of birth of the respondent, or that of his/her spouse, which the respondent will find very easy to answer. Then a random procedure, like tossing a coin will be used to select the question to be answered. The question will be selected by the respondent and the researcher will not know about the selection. Essentially, the response format should be same for both the questions. And the respondent will tell the interviewer only the answer, like yes or no. Since the respondents are assured that the interviewer will not know the question he/she is answering, it is expected that the respondent will behave reasonably and offer the accurate answer to whatever question the random procedure selects. After completion of the data collection procedure the researcher use the help of some secondary data to find out the proportion of the respondents said yes or no (or whatever the response format was) to the question under consideration.(Let us play a game in the Class) An example of Randomised response Technique: Suppose you are interested in finding out the percentage of college going students who drink. If you ask a teenager directly about whether he/she drinks chances of getting a biased (incorrect) answer are very high. To overcome this you may club this question with a very easy question like the month of his/her birth. You must be careful in selection of the second question as this should meet the following two criteria: The question should be very easy to answer And the answer to the question should be available from a secondary source. Now consider the following example of a randomised response questionnaire: TOSS THE COIN THE INTERVIEWR IS GIVING YOU. IF YOU GET HEAD, ANSEWR QUESTION NO.1 BELOW. IF TAIL APPEARS ANSWER TO QUESTION NO. 2. DO NOT TELL OR SHOW THE INTERVIWER ANYTHING. THUS INTERVIWER WILL NOT BE KNOWING TO WHICH QUESTION YOU ARE ANSWERING. AND YOUR PRIVACY WILL REMAIN INTACT 1. YOU WERE BORN IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. 2. YOU HAVE NEVER STOLEN ANY MONEY FROM YOUR FATHER’S PURSE. ANSWER: YES NO Answer to the first question will be known from the data collection by the census authority (do you know the name of the office which conduct census in India?). Even from intuition the answer can be guessed to be around 1 . Now the percentage of respondents which answers “No” to 12 the second question could be calculated by the following formula. P( No) P(insensitiv e _ question) * P(" No" to _ insensitiv e _ question) P( sensitive _ question) See Thomas C Kinnear and James R Taylor ,“Marketing Research”, 5 th international edition, McGraw-Hill for more detail. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 19 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Where, P (No) is proportion of respondents who answered "No" P (insensitive_question) is the probability of answering 'No" to the insensitive question (in this case it is 0.5) P ("No" to_insensitive_question) is proportion of people born NOT in December (from census data) P (sensitive_question) is the probability of answering 'No" to the sensitive question (in this case it is 0.5) Decision About Response Format This is one of the more creative areas of questionnaire preparation. Normally there are two types of response format. 1. Open ended question, and 2. Close ended questions. There are various advantages and disadvantages of both the types of questions. To make the questionnaire attractive multiple choice questions may be used in many ways. Interesting pictures, cartoons etc. may provided in lieu of normal words. Like smiley faces might be used for expressing satisfaction level. The following example will give an idea. Question: Are you satisfied with the after sales service of the product XYZ? Choices: Very Satisfied Somewhat Satisfied Indifferent (cannot say) Not Satisfied Not Satisfied at all These choices can graphically be depicted as : Decision on Question Wording: The heart of the questionnaire consists of the questions - the link between the data and information needs of the study. It is critical that the researcher and the respondents assign same meaning to the questions asked. Otherwise serious measurement errors will occur. Therefore, the discussion under this sub-head will revolve around how to write questions, which carry the same meaning for both researcher and the respondent. There are certain general guidelines regarding designing the wordings of the question. 1. Use simple words 2. Use clear words: In finding out clarity of words used in a questionnaire, answer the following questions. a) Does this word mean what is intended? b) Does it have any other meaning? c) If so, does the context make the intended meaning clear? d) Does this word have more than one pronunciation? (for Telephonic interview this is most important) e) Is there any word with similar pronunciation that might be confused with this word? f) Is there a still simpler word or phrase that might be used? 1. Avoid leading questions: A leading question is one in which the respondent is given a cue as to what should be the answer of the question. Leading question often reflects the researcher's or the organisation’s view point on a particular variable under study. This type of question causes constant measurement error throughout the survey. An example of leading question would be to ask a respondent: Today is very hot. Is not it? Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 2. 20 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Avoid biasing questions: A biasing question includes word or phrases those are emotionally coloured and suggest a feeling of approval or disapproval. Often it includes certain references, which might effect the answer of a question. An example might be Do not you agree with the view of Bill gates that new century will be an era of Information Technology? And who would, in earth, like to answer such kind of an question? Those who like Bill will say yes and those who do not know gates will say no. And now your job is to find out which one is the honest response! An example of loaded question will be Is General Motors doing everything possible in reducing automobile pollution? The answer is obvious no or obvious yes, because General Motors is doing, and also not doing everything possible to reduce automobile pollution. Even if the intention of the researcher was different the use of the two words made the question vulnerable to measurement error. 3. Avoid implicit alternatives: Researcher should not offer only partial alternatives in case of close ended questions. If your job is to find out the brand name of the Toothpaste used by the respondent, then you must include all available brands in the market so that while responding the sample does not feel difficulty in finding out a place to tick. If it is not possible to include all the alternatives or if your job is not to find out the exact brand of the toothpaste, you are allowed to use the word others so that any measurement error does not occur. That means the choices should be collectively exhaustive. 4. Implicit assumption: Consider the two questions: Do you favour a ban on commercials in movie theatres? And just add the following part to the question. …even if it means a rise in $.5 per show? The proportion of samples that said ‘yes’ to the first part of the question is 22%, and the same for the whole question is 11%. Often it is found that measurement error galore for the failure of the researchers in stating essential assumptions. Therefore, the researcher must not think that the respondents know the virtual assumptions related to a question. 5. Avoid estimates : Question should not be such that the respondent has to rely on estimates. Therefore, distant recall question should not be asked. If estimate is encouraged the respondents might give inaccurate information. 6. Avoid double barreled questions: The questions should be simple and should contain only one answer. However, it is often seen that one question actually includes two questions and thus two answers. Consider, What is comment on LML Vespa's after sales service and economy standard? The answer to these two questions may be different, and the respondent is not sure to which question you are asking answer! 7. Consider the frame of reference: This refers to the respondent's view point from which he/she is answering the questions. Consider the two questions: Are automobile manufacturers are making satisfactory progress in controlling automobile emission? And Are you satisfied with the progress automobile manufacturers are making in controlling emissions? The wording for each question should be as simple as possible. It should be consistent to the vocabulary level of the respondents. Decide on Question Sequence: once the wordings are finalised, the questions should be put in sequence. The following guidelines may be followed for this purpose. Use simple and interesting opening question Ask general questions first Place uninteresting question later in the sequence. S. Hume and M. Magiera, "What do Moviegoers Think of Ads?" Advertising Age ( April 1990) Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 21 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Arrange questions in logical order. Physical get up of the questionnaire should be eye-catching, gorgeous and should be full of blank spaces. The letters should be easily legible to all members of the sample. Pilot Survey: The basic job of a pilot survey is to find out the difficulties that might be faced during the field operations of the survey with the questionnaire so that necessary actions and modifications can be initiated to remove these difficulties in the time of actual field operation. Specially the understanding of the questions by the respondents are tested. The following issues are taken up in this stage: In terms of physical appearance: a) Will the questionnaire appeal to respondents and motivate them to cooperate? Is your questionnaire "sensuous"? b) Does the questionnaire include brief and precise instructions? Are the instructions are enough to explain the respondents what is wanted from them? Are they confusing in any respect? c) Is your format conducive to your chosen method of data entry? (like keying, scanning and hand tabulation etc? In terms of content: a) Does each question ask for one bit of information? b) Does the question presuppose a certain state of affairs? If so, if the assumption is justified? c) Does the question wording bias response? d) Are any of the questions words emotionally loaded, vaguely defined, or overly general? e) Do any of the question's words have a double meaning, which may confuse respondents? f) Does the question use abbreviations, or jargon, which may be unfamiliar? g) Are the question's responses mutually exclusive and sufficient to cover each conceivable answer? Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 22 © Mrinmoy K Sarma SURVEY METHOD There are three widely used methods of primary data collection, especially through survey method. These are, mail, telephone interview, and in-person interview There remain inherent merits and demerits of all these methods. The methods are evaluated on the basis of the following criteria Versatility of use Cost associated Time taken Possibility of Sample Control Quality of information Quantify of information Response rate (or non response rate) Mail surveys are the most common examples of self-reported data collection. One of the reasons is that such surveys can be relatively low in cost. This does not mean, however, they are necessarily easy to carry out. Planning the questionnaires for mail surveys is often more difficult than for surveys those use interviewers (in-person interview or telephonic interviews). For example, care is needed to anticipate the physical and psychological conditions of the respondents in advance – in many cases without knowing the ground realities of the environment the respondent is facing. Using the mail (post) can be particularly effective in business surveys. Mail surveys also work well when they are directed toward specific groups -- such as, subscribers to a specialized magazine or members of a professional organization. The manner in which self-reported data are obtained has begun to move away from the traditional mail-out/mail-back approach. The use of fax machines -- and now the Internet -- is on the rise. Fax numbers and e-mail addresses are being added to specialized membership and other lists. As a by-product, they can be used, along with more conventional items like names and mailing addresses, in building potential sampling frames. There are still other methods of obtaining self-reported data like the one used for obtaining continuous information about the same elements over a period of time. Panels are such examples. However, technology has helped reducing the cost, time and effort in collecting such routine information. For example, computer network can be used to put in necessary information into the principal server by the remote respondents. However, for the immediate future, this type of automation will probably be restricted largely to business or institutional surveys in which the same information is collected at periodic intervals -- monthly, quarterly, etc. Do you think TRP surveys can use this technique? How to Conduct an Interview Interview surveys -- whether face-to-face (in-person) or by telephone -- offer distinct advantages over self-reported data collection. The "presence" of an interviewer can increase cooperation rates and make it possible for respondents to get immediate clarifications. One of the main requirements for good interviewers is the ability to approach strangers in person or on the telephone and persuade them to participate in the survey. Once a respondent's cooperation is acquired, the interviewers must maintain it, while collecting the needed data, which should be obtained in exact accordance with laid down instructions. For ensuring quality of the collected data, interviewers should be carefully trained through classroom instruction, self-study, or both. Good interviewer techniques such as -- how to make initial contacts, how to conduct interviews in a professional manner, and how to avoid influencing or biasing responses. Training generally involves practice interviews to familiarize the interviewers with the variety of situations they are likely to encounter. However, for different interviews, the interviewers should be Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 23 © Mrinmoy K Sarma trained separately so that a question by question understanding is achieved to make them qualified to deal with any misunderstanding that might arise at the time of the interview. Also, the interviewers may be made clear about the purpose, definitions and procedures of conducting a particular survey separately. In most reputable survey organizations, the interviewers are also required to take a strict oath of confidentiality before beginning the work. Interviewers should also be trained on the way the samples are to be selected, if needed. If they are to visit the pre-selected samples, adequate guiding materials such as addresses, maps, pictures etc. should be made available to them (after imparting training on how to read them), so that they make no mistake in finding the right samples. It is advisable to send an advance letter to the sample respondents, explaining the purpose of the survey and that an interviewer will be calling soon. Many reputed survey organisations offer information to the respondents on how the information will be used and the level of confidentiality of the data. Visits to sample units should be scheduled with attention to considerations like the best time of day to call or visit, which might be gathered from the pre-selected samples through advance call or mail. Computers and Survey: Few years back more than 95% of the 165 members of the Council of American Survey Research Organisation offered internet based data collection, wherein they used internet as their data collection tool rather than typical meet-the-respondent fill-up-the-questionnaire technique. They reported many advantages of such a method of data collection. Speed is one of the main advantages. One market research organisation completed 1000 questionnaire for a customer satisfaction survey within only 2 hours! This is incredible compared to the time (sometimes months) required in traditional method. Networked research also offers the ability to target hard-to-reach population. One of the traditional difficulties in segmentation research is to identify and access respondents who fit a particular lifestyles or reside in a remote area. Now-a-days many internet portals offer segmentation statistics at a price and thus the researchers can reach such population without much difficulties. You might have noticed while using internet how the promotional mails are sent (most of the cases unsolicited). The same method can be used with a bit of refinement and modification. Web based data collectors can use the opportunity for multi-media presentation to make their points. With the advent of high-speed network connection (in giga-bites) this would be more practical and user friendly. And remember this can be made at the disposal of the respondents without any movement of the interviewers. However, despite all these unparalleled advantages such research may be infected with the traditional errors of data collection. More so because of the fact that the Internet addresses are impossible to verify to ascertain whether the sampling frame is the correct one. However a blending of traditional method and computer method can reduce these errors to the minimum, while keeping the distinctive advantages of the networked survey. Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI): The use of computers in survey interviewing is increasing day by day. American Statistical Association reports that in the United States, most of the large-scale telephone surveys are now conducted using computers. In CATI, the interviewers use a computer either in a network or stand alone to conduct the telephonic interview. The questions in order of preference appear in the screen and the responses are inserted directly into the computer. Then the same are analysed readily using the required statistical software. The CATI interviewer's screen is programmed to show questions in a planned order, so that interviewers cannot inadvertently omit questions or ask them out of sequence. Specially, if some questions require “branching” (i.e., answers to prior questions determine which other questions are to be asked. Like, if the answer to a question is “yes”, then a different set of questions are asked, while for “no” as an answer still different questions are asked) CATI can be programmed to do the correct branching automatically. In ordinary telephone interviewing, incorrect branching has sometimes been an important source of errors, especially omissions. CATI can also be used to make automatic crosschecking of responses. If certain inconsistency occurs, the software itself will pop in certain question on the screen for the respondent to clarify (to correct or confirm) earlier responses. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 24 © Mrinmoy K Sarma Other advantages of this method of telephonic interview are quality and speed. CATI can produce statistical results quicker than traditional methods of data collection. For example, it eliminates the need for a separate data processing and data entry. This method is more useful when a daily or periodic summary of results is required. However, limitations of CATI include the type of questions – obviously only close ended questions with multiple choices can be managed through such methods. Any insertion, which requires longer time, may distract the respondent, as the waiting time for the next question will be long. Moreover, CATI can cost more for small, non-repeated surveys, due to programming the questionnaire. CATI's cost per interview decreases as sample size increases -- so in large and/or repeated surveys, it is cost competitive with conventional telephone methods. Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI): This method has direct linkage to the high level of use of lap top computers or other portable computer systems, which can be taken into the field, and either the interviewer or the respondent can directly enter data in response to questions. Data collection carried out in this way is referred to as CAPI. The CAPI laptops may not be in a network at the time of administration of the questionnaire. Nonetheless, most CATI quality and speed advantages also occur with CAPI. Although only a few organizations currently employ CAPI methods, their use is expected to expand in the next few years. Clearly, the periodic interviews like that of a panel study (for example to determine TRP {do you know by this time what is it? If not, find out NOW} indexes) may be greatly benefited by the use of CAPI. However, the question remains as to what extent the traditional paper and pencil method will remain as the prime tool of conducting interviews! Who can predict!! Shortcuts to Avoid during a Survey: A credible survey must be carefully planned and controlled (during execution). This needs lots of determination, consistency in the approach and perseverance. Amateur researchers are often inclined to adopt shortcuts, as they feel such measures would not jeopardize with the quality of the findings. However, contrary to their belief, taking shortcuts can invalidate the results and badly mislead the sponsor and other users. Here three most commonly used shortcuts are mentioned. Pretesting of field procedures (pilot survey) is avoided non-respondents are not followed up sufficiently Sloppy fieldwork and inadequate quality controls Therefore, efforts should be made not to take these shortcuts for the sake of collecting good quality data. When non-response occurs, efforts must be made to re-contact the sample again and again. Every organisation might have some policy as to how the non-responses are taken care of, or how many times a non-respondent will be tried to be contacted. However, if non-response is occurring for reasons other than non availability of the sample at the time of the visit of the interviewers or a returned mail due to non availability of the addressee, non-response can be prevented to a great extent by proper planning and pretesting of the questionnaire. A pretest of the questionnaire and field procedures is the only way of finding out if everything “works”— especially if a survey employs new techniques or a new set of questions. We will discuss about Pretesting, which is also known as pilot survey is a later part of this material. Sloppy execution of a survey in the field can seriously damage results, Controlling the quality of the fieldwork is done in several ways, most often through observation or redoing a small sample of interviews by supervisory or senior personnel. There should be at least some questionnaire-by-questionnaire checking, while the survey is being carried out; this is essential if omissions or other obvious mistakes in the data are to be uncovered before it is too late to fix them. In other words, to assure that the proper execution of a survey corresponds to its design, every facet of a survey must be looked at during implementation. For example... re-examining the sample selection … redoing some of the interviews. Without proper checking, errors may go undetected. With good procedures, on the other hand, they might even have been prevented. As W. Edwards Deming recommends, a complete systems approach should be developed to be sure that each step fits into the previous and subsequent steps. Murphy’s Law applies here, as elsewhere in life. The corollary to Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 25 © Mrinmoy K Sarma keep in mind is that not only it is true that “If anything can go wrong it will… but, “If you didn’t check on it, it did.” How to Plan a Survey: To begin with every researcher must ask the following questions repeatedly: 1. 2. 3. Whether the required information can be collected through a survey? Or may be these cannot be? Is the information available in some indirect sources? When the researcher is satisfied with the answers and convinced that there is a need for survey for the required information, he/she can take further steps in planning a survey. The following stages of activities are generally followed while planning a survey. A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. LAY DOWN THE OBJECTIVES OF THE INVESTIGATION: This is generally is the function of the sponsor of the survey. However, it is the duty of the researcher to finalise the objectives which are achievable (means, not unrealistic) with the consultation of the sponsor. The objectives of the survey should be as specific, clear cut and unambiguous as possible. SPECIFY THE DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE: The mode of data collection must be decided upon before proceeding further. The decision will have to be made whether the mail (conventional or electronic), telephone or inperson method will be applied. The steps those follow this will be heavily dependent upon this decision of the researcher. PLANNING OF THE DATA COLLECTION FORM: If the researcher is willing to employ the mail in and mail out method of data collection, the form of data collection, which is known as the questionnaire, in this case will have to be carefully planed and implemented (please see the topic questionnaire, which s included in the material.). However, if the electronic method is used proper care has to be taken to see that enough responses are received with out any distortion of the objectives. Like if the researcher is administering the questionnaire through e-mail, the planning will be different than if the data are to be gathered through submissions in the web page. This stage also does have a bearing with the target group or the population from which the data are to the extracted. This factor leads to the next stage of the planning process. DECIDING ABOUT THE POPULATION OR THE SAMPLING FRAME: The group of persons from whom data are intended to be gathered is known as the population of the survey. When each and every member of the population is featured in a comprehensive list, this is known as the sampling frame. However, in many of the social science researches, the sampling frame is not available (see sampling frame for detail). However, it must be remembered that for conducting a scientific survey with a probabilistic method of data collection (like simple random sampling, stratified random sampling or area sampling) the presence of a sampling frame is must. THE DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE: The next step is to decide about the data collection procedure. This is discussed in detail elsewhere in this material. DECIDE ABOUT THE SCHEDULE OF THE SURVEY: This is one of the important decisions the researcher will have to take before starting of the survey. Because the quality of data is totally dependent on the time schedule of the survey. In certain cases like that of an opinion poll or exit poll, or test marketing of a product the time factor is very important and precise planning must be made to follow the desired time schedule. SELECTION OF SAMPLE INCLUDING DECIDING ABOUT THE SAMPLE SIZE: These are discussed elsewhere in this material. ADMINISTRATION OF THE DATA COLLECTION FORM: This is the fieldwork when the interviewers actually go down to meet the sample. If this is not an in- Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 26 © Mrinmoy K Sarma person data collection survey, this step includes mailing out the questionnaire, or making phone calls to the samples. The Budget for a survey: The monetary involvement of a survey is a function of the data collection procedure and the sample size. Following is a checklist for allocation of cost as prescribed by the American Statistical Association. A “traditional” (paper and pencil) in-person interview survey will be used to illustrate the budget steps. Many of these are general; however, increasing use of survey automation is altering costs — reducing some and adding others. Staff time for planning the study and steering it through the various stages, including time spent with the sponsor in refining data needs. Sample selection costs, including central office staff labour and computing costs. For “area segments” samples, substantial field staff (interviewer) labours costs and travel expenses for listing sample units within the segments. Labour and material costs for pretesting the questionnaire and field procedures; the pretesting step may need to be done more than once and money and time should be set aside for this (especially when studying something new). Supervisory costs for interviewer hiring, training, and monitoring. Interviewer labour costs and travel expenses (including meals and lodging, if out of town). Labour and other costs of redoing a certain percentage of the interviews (as a quality assurance step) and for follow-up on non-respondents. Labor and material costs for getting the information from the questionnaire onto a computer file. Cost of spot-checking the quality of the process of computerizing the paper questionnaires. Cost of “cleaning” the final data— that is, checking the computer files for inconsistent or impossible answers; this may also include the costs of “filling in” or imputing any missing information. Analyst costs for preparing tabulations and special analyses of the data; computer time for the various tabulations and analyses. Labor time and material costs for substantive analyses of the data and report preparation. Potentially important are incidental telephone charges, postage, reproduction and printing costs for all stages of the survey — from planning activities to the distribution of results. A good survey does not come “cheap,” although some are more economical than others are. Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 27 © Mrinmoy K Sarma DATA ANALYSIS Data analysis is another very important step of the research process. In this stage the collected data are analysed by the desired and appropriate method. Data are of different types depending on the number of variables taken for analysis. When there is only one variable in consideration than this is known as Univariate data. When the number increases to 2 then it is known as Bivariate data and when the variable in consideration is more than 2 the data are known as Multivariate data. Let us discuss the available methods of Univariate data. Before proceeding further let us have a discussion regarding Hypothesis Testing. HYPOTHESIS TESTING: We must state the assumed value of the population before we begin sampling. The assumption we wish to test is known as null hypothesis. This is symbolised by H0 If we are to test the hypothesis that the population mean is 500 then this is to be written as Ho : = 500 In null hypothesis, generally a situation is tested which does not have any effect i.e., there is no difference between treated and untreated samples. Suppose the management of a firm believes that the average consumption of carbonated beverage per female student per week was more than four bottles. If the consumption of the beverage is this high the co. may develop a different kind of drink to suit the consumer in a different way. But, before proceeding the co. must be very sure about the consumption level. However, after the sample analysis they found that the av. consumption level is 5.575. Even though for further surety the co. formulated the Null Hypo. as Ho : < 4 bottles of beverages per week. Here, the firm formulated the hypothesis in the null form, i.e., the av. consumption per female is less than 4 bottles. There is another type of hypothesis known as H1 or alternative hypothesis. Here the alternative hypothesis may be H1 : > 4 bottles. The purpose of hypothesis testing is not to question the computed value of the sample statistic but to make a judgment about the difference between that sample statistic and a hypothesized population parameter. STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Formulate null and alternative hypotheses. Select the appropriate statistical test given the type of data the researcher has. Specify the significance level. Look up for the value of the test statistics in a set of table for a given level of significance Perform the statistical test. This yields a value of the relevant statistic. Compare the value of the statistics calculated in item 5 with the value of the item 4. If the value of item 5 is greater than the value of item 4, then reject the null hypothesis. The steps described above are for standardised hypothesis testing method. In Traditional Method the data thus gathered are plotted in a normal curve and then the critical value from the table is Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 28 © Mrinmoy K Sarma found out. If the calculated value of the statistic falls in the acceptance region than the null hypothesis is accepted and otherwise rejected. (These are discussed in the class in detail). Type one error occurs when a correct null hypothesis is rejected. Type two error occurs when a wrong null hypothesis is accepted. Significance level indicates the probability of type one errors being made. In fact this is the tolerance level of the researcher of type one error. Two tailed and one tailed test of hypothesis: A two tailed test of a hypothesis will reject null hypothesis if the sample mean is significantly higher than or lower than the hypothesized population mean. Thus In a two tailed test there are two rejection zones. A two tailed test is appropriate when the null hypothesis is = H0 ( H0 being some specified value) and the alternative hypothesis is H0. Assume that a manufacturer of light bulbs wants to produce bulbs with mean life of = H0 = 1000 hours. If the lifetime is shorter, he will loose customers to his competitors; if lifetime is longer he will have to bear extra cost in production. Since he does not want to deviate significantly in either way, a two-tailed test will be appropriate. However, if a wholesaler that buys bulbs from the above manufacturer, he would not accept bulbs with life less than 1000 hrs. However, he is not bothered if the life span of the bulbs are higher than 1000hrs. In this case the wholesaler will be interested in testing whether the bulbs are less than 1000 hrs of life. Hence his null hypothesis will be H0: <1000 hours. In this case one tailed test (left tailed) is appropriate. The z test: Appropriate situation for using z test: 1. the sample of any size if the population standard deviation is known 2. the sample size is greater than 30 if population s.d. is not known. When n 30 and population s.d. is not known t test is appropriate. If is known z x x = x n If is NOT known z x x = s sx n Research Methods in Business Class Notes: Tezpur University MBA Programme 29 © Mrinmoy K Sarma The following flow chart gives an idea regarding use of different types of univariate data analysis techniques. It is clear from the first question in the flow chart that the decision regarding the tools to be used would primarily depend upon the scales of measurement used. Therefore, if you contemplate to use a particular tool (even in case of bivariate and multivariate techniques) chose the scale accordingly while specifying the instruments of data collection. And obviously this is to be done before collection of data. Univariate data analysis procedures: What is the scale level of the variable ? interval ordinal nominal 1. Descriptive Central Tendency Mean Median Mode Dispersion Standard Deviation Interquartile Range Relative & absolute frequencies by categories z test t test Kolmogorov Smirnov test Chi-square test 2. Inferential