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Sampling distributions The probability distribution of a statistic is called a sampling distribution. X : the sampling distribution of the mean X 1 X 2 ... X n X n ... X n 2 X 2 ... n 2 2 2 n 1 The Central Limit Theorem When n is sufficiently large (i.e. greater than 15), the sample mean follows approximately a normal distribution: X ~ N , n 2 Example 1: Y2K Income Suppose that we find from a random sampling of 100 families that the sample mean income is $53,605 and the sample variance is 693,110,929 squared dollars. Given this data, we seek the probability that the mean Y2K income exceeds $50,000. 3 Example 2 Suppose that a random variable X has a continuous uniform distribution 1 / 2 , f( x) 0 , 4 x6 otherwise Find the distribution of the sample mean of a random sample of size n=40. 4 Sampling distribution If we have two independent populations with means 1 and 2 and variance 12 and 22, and if X 1 and X 2 are the sample means of two independent random samples of sized n1 and n2 from these population, then the sampling distribution of Z X 1 X 2 ( 1 2 ) 12 n1 22 n2 is approximately standard normal, if the conditions of the central limit theorem apply. If the two populations are normal, then the sampling distribution of Z is exactly standard normal. 5 Example 3 The effective life of a component used in a jet-turbine aircraft engine is a random variable with mean 5000 hr and standard deviation 40hr. The distribution of effective life is fairly close to a normal distribution. The engine manufacturer increases the mean life to 5050hr and decreases the standard deviation to 30hr. Suppose that a random sample of n1=16 components is selected from the old process and a random sample of n2=25 components is selected from the improved process. What is the probability that the difference in the two sample means is at least 25 hr? 6