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How Markets React to Earnings Announcements in the Absence of
How Markets React to Earnings Announcements in the Absence of

... underreaction to earnings announcements are not well understood. This phenomenon can be explained with a number of hypotheses, but two competing hypotheses and explanations dominate the debate. The first is the rational explanation and the second comes from the behavioural school which suggests that ...
Geographic dispersion and stock returns
Geographic dispersion and stock returns

... Firms are sorted into portfolios of local firms and geographically dispersed firms using our state count measure. The portfolio of local firms has a Jensen’s alpha of 48 basis points per month relative to a factor model that controls for risks related to the market, size, book-tomarket ratio, momentum, ...
Risk Analysis & Modelling
Risk Analysis & Modelling

... second, and one cycle is roughly one calculation So each Core can make approximately 2.8 billion calculations per second If you were to perform 5.6 billion calculations on a calculator at 1 calculation every 3 seconds without rest it would take you over 500 years! With this almost “unlimited” calcul ...
Value versus Growth - Krannert School of Management
Value versus Growth - Krannert School of Management

... value and growth portfolios, respectively. We also overlay the transition probabilities with historical NBER recession dates. The conditional transition probabilities depend on lagged conditioning information and reflect the perception of investors on the conditional likelihood of being in the high- ...
Equilibrium Cross-Section of Returns
Equilibrium Cross-Section of Returns

... adopted in good times, when xt is high. This rising cost of investment is then similar to the result obtained in a standard convex adjustment cost model. Together then, our assumptions about productivity and costs guarantee then that individual investment decisions can be aggregated into a linear st ...
The Composite Index of Propensity to Risk – CIPR
The Composite Index of Propensity to Risk – CIPR

... The spectrum of risk attitudes is related to the form of utility functions reflecting the behavior of individuals when choosing between risky, uncertain outcomes and certain equivalents. For example, consider two possible monetary outcomes or lotteries, z1 and z2 that may occur with chances p and (1 ...
Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock
Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock

... not explicitly address whether such a tilt exists among the individual investors they analyze, but we suspect that it does. This small-stock tilt is likely to be extremely important because small stocks outperform large stocks by 67 basis points per month during their sample period. As do Schlarbaum ...
The Size and Specialization of Direct Investment Portfolios
The Size and Specialization of Direct Investment Portfolios

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Bond Positions, Expectations, And The Yield Curve∗
Bond Positions, Expectations, And The Yield Curve∗

Managing credit booms and busts
Managing credit booms and busts

... Asset prices in turn are driven by the insiders’ demand for loans, which is a function of their borrowing capacity. This introduces a mutual feedback loop between asset prices and credit flows: small financial shocks to insiders can simultaneously lead to large booms and busts in asset prices and b ...
Risk management for wealth and asset management
Risk management for wealth and asset management

... conduct risk, managing expectations around appropriate capabilities, and building an understanding of how to manage the risks from cybercrime. Respondents in this year’s survey also commented on how regulatory risk was now considered to be the number one risk. Nearly every firm mentioned challenges ...
Safe Assets
Safe Assets

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Free Sample
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Expected Returns, Yield Spreads, and Asset Pricing Tests
Expected Returns, Yield Spreads, and Asset Pricing Tests

... argument linking yield spreads and expected equity returns. Building on Merton’s (1974) framework, we first formalize our ideas. We then test our pricing predictions using standard multi-factor models. In our view, the asset pricing tests of this paper provide fresh insights in to the determinants o ...
Young, Old, Conservative, and Bold: The Implications of
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... Second, by using recursive rather than time-additive preferences we can separate — both conceptually and quantitatively — the effects of risk-aversion and IES heterogeneity, and study their interaction. We show that these features of the model — OLG and heterogeneity of recursive preferences — help ...
A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic
A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic

... at its long-run mean, θ *. In practice, the stochastic variance will drift above and below this level, but the basic conclusions should not change. An important insight from the analysis is the distinction between the effects of stochastic volatility per se and the effects of correlation of volatili ...
Cross-Sectional Dispersion and Expected Returns
Cross-Sectional Dispersion and Expected Returns

... for aggregate idiosyncratic risk that can be readily computed at any frequency without the need to assume any particular asset pricing model. We propose that, as a proxy for aggregate idiosyncratic risk, cross-sectional dispersion represents a state variable that should be priced in the cross-secti ...
The Event Study Method - Revista Panorama Socioeconómico / U
The Event Study Method - Revista Panorama Socioeconómico / U

... statistical properties of daily security returns. In fact, although empirical research using event study method is increasingly incorporating Latin American security daily returns data, some characteristics of these securities clearly differ from those traded in equity markets of developed countries ...
Hedge Funds, Managerial Skill, and Macroeconomic Variables
Hedge Funds, Managerial Skill, and Macroeconomic Variables

... successful within relative value and funds of funds. One view is that by diversifying across various hedge funds, funds of funds become less dependent on economic conditions. The optimal portfolios of hedge funds which allow for predictability in managerial skills do differ somewhat from the other p ...
IPE EDHEC-Risk Research Insights Spring 2014
IPE EDHEC-Risk Research Insights Spring 2014

... the risk allocation approach, also known as risk budgeting approach, to portfolio construction, consists in advocating a focus on risk, as opposed to dollar, allocation. In a nutshell, the goal of the risk allocation methodology is to ensure that the contribution of each constituent to the overall r ...
Why is long-horizon equity less risky? A duration-based
Why is long-horizon equity less risky? A duration-based

A Wealth-Dependent Investment Opportunity Set
A Wealth-Dependent Investment Opportunity Set

... and Σm = Dm Dm , then Σm is the first m by m submatrix of Σ and is also positive definite. The problem in this paper is different from an ordinary consumption and investment problem in the following sense: let xt be the investor’s wealth at time t and Tξ the first time that her wealth reaches ξ. The ...
Transamerica Stable Value Option
Transamerica Stable Value Option

... and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of information. Past performance is no guarantee of future perf ...
Transamerica Stable Value Option
Transamerica Stable Value Option

... and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of information. Past performance is no guarantee of future perf ...
Spillover Effect of Disagreement
Spillover Effect of Disagreement

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Modern portfolio theory

Modern portfolio theory (MPT) is a theory of finance that attempts to maximize portfolio expected return for a given amount of portfolio risk, or equivalently minimize risk for a given level of expected return, by carefully choosing the proportions of various assets. Although MPT is widely used in practice in the financial industry and several of its creators won a Nobel memorial prize for the theory, in recent years the basic assumptions of MPT have been widely challenged by fields such as behavioral economics.MPT is a mathematical formulation of the concept of diversification in investing, with the aim of selecting a collection of investment assets that has lower overall risk than any other combination of assets with the same expected return. This is possible, intuitively speaking, because different types of assets sometimes change in value in opposite directions. For example, to the extent prices in the stock market move differently from prices in the bond market, a combination of both types of assets can in theory generate lower overall risk than either individually. Diversification can lower risk even if assets' returns are positively correlated.More technically, MPT models an asset's return as a normally or elliptically distributed random variable, defines risk as the standard deviation of return, and models a portfolio as a weighted combination of assets, so that the return of a portfolio is the weighted combination of the assets' returns. By combining different assets whose returns are not perfectly positively correlated, MPT seeks to reduce the total variance of the portfolio return. MPT also assumes that investors are rational and markets are efficient.MPT was developed in the 1950s through the early 1970s and was considered an important advance in the mathematical modeling of finance. Since then, some theoretical and practical criticisms have been leveled against it. These include evidence that financial returns do not follow a normal distribution or indeed any symmetric distribution, and that correlations between asset classes are not fixed but can vary depending on external events (especially in crises). Further, there remains evidence that investors are not rational and markets may not be efficient. Finally, the low volatility anomaly conflicts with CAPM's trade-off assumption of higher risk for higher return. It states that a portfolio consisting of low volatility equities (like blue chip stocks) reaps higher risk-adjusted returns than a portfolio with high volatility equities (like illiquid penny stocks). A study conducted by Myron Scholes, Michael Jensen, and Fischer Black in 1972 suggests that the relationship between return and beta might be flat or even negatively correlated.
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