Understanding Climate Variability : Implications for Water Resources
... what is the risk for water supply under climate change? can management mitigate? What is the probability distribution of 'optimal yield' from the flow scenarios (climate change) given the system capacity and constraints ? ensemble of streamflow sequences PDF of yield, storage mean & std dev ...
... what is the risk for water supply under climate change? can management mitigate? What is the probability distribution of 'optimal yield' from the flow scenarios (climate change) given the system capacity and constraints ? ensemble of streamflow sequences PDF of yield, storage mean & std dev ...
Risk, uncertainty and the institutional geographies of
... Risk is a generative concept whose meaning and significance are understood in a variety of different ways. The sociologist Ulrich Beck (1992) famously theorized that new incalculable risks like climate change are triggering a more reflexive phase of modernization concerned with the risks created by ...
... Risk is a generative concept whose meaning and significance are understood in a variety of different ways. The sociologist Ulrich Beck (1992) famously theorized that new incalculable risks like climate change are triggering a more reflexive phase of modernization concerned with the risks created by ...
Mainstreaming Early Warning Systems in Development
... drought and desertification, a different kind of sustainable hydrometeorological EWS is required to monitor slow onset, incremental but accumulative changes, for example, creeping environmental change (Glantz 1999). Climate change-driven forecasts under alternate scenarios, or representative concent ...
... drought and desertification, a different kind of sustainable hydrometeorological EWS is required to monitor slow onset, incremental but accumulative changes, for example, creeping environmental change (Glantz 1999). Climate change-driven forecasts under alternate scenarios, or representative concent ...
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... regions; rich and poor. We derive Pareto improving efficient solutions in which no generation or region should loose from climate policy relative to its reference scenario. We explore four canonical cases that satisfy the condition that they are Pareto improving for all four groups — today’s rich, t ...
... regions; rich and poor. We derive Pareto improving efficient solutions in which no generation or region should loose from climate policy relative to its reference scenario. We explore four canonical cases that satisfy the condition that they are Pareto improving for all four groups — today’s rich, t ...
Executive Summary CHILE`S FIRST BIENNIAL UPDATE REPORT
... financing and progressive implementation. At the same time the Chilean National Congress has recently enacted new legislation that includes a carbon tax, which will be a cornerstone of mitigation action in the country. Finally, for the first time, the government has carried out a systematic survey o ...
... financing and progressive implementation. At the same time the Chilean National Congress has recently enacted new legislation that includes a carbon tax, which will be a cornerstone of mitigation action in the country. Finally, for the first time, the government has carried out a systematic survey o ...
Gregory and Forster - University of Leeds
... (HadCM3 does not simulate the forcing due to black carbon aerosol.) These forcings are consistent within uncertainties with the current best estimates for the real world (section 4). When all forcings are included in the model, the simulated ...
... (HadCM3 does not simulate the forcing due to black carbon aerosol.) These forcings are consistent within uncertainties with the current best estimates for the real world (section 4). When all forcings are included in the model, the simulated ...
Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change
... equals the average coefficient of variation of the other studies. Four cases are distinguished: whether or not CO2 -enrichment of the atmosphere (at 550 ppm) is considered, and whether or not farmers adapt to the changed circumstances. The average of various adaptation scenarios is taken. None of th ...
... equals the average coefficient of variation of the other studies. Four cases are distinguished: whether or not CO2 -enrichment of the atmosphere (at 550 ppm) is considered, and whether or not farmers adapt to the changed circumstances. The average of various adaptation scenarios is taken. None of th ...
A district level assessment of vulnerability of
... level. Because of its transparency, this method was followed in many studies that assessed vulnerability. Deressa et al.21 ranked the seven Ethiopian states based on vulnerability indices constructed, following an integrated approach. Eriyagama et al.20 analysed the relative vulnerability of distric ...
... level. Because of its transparency, this method was followed in many studies that assessed vulnerability. Deressa et al.21 ranked the seven Ethiopian states based on vulnerability indices constructed, following an integrated approach. Eriyagama et al.20 analysed the relative vulnerability of distric ...
From Climate Science to Adaptation Decision-Making Mark Stafford Smith
... Eyre Peninsula Integrated Climate Change Agreement General climate ...
... Eyre Peninsula Integrated Climate Change Agreement General climate ...
Assessing pricing assumptions for weather index insurance in a changing climate
... designed using observed data alone will be at risk of under- or over-estimating the probabilities of triggering payments. This risk is present for policies designed for use both today and in the future because under climate change past observations do not represent today’s climate (Daron and Stainfo ...
... designed using observed data alone will be at risk of under- or over-estimating the probabilities of triggering payments. This risk is present for policies designed for use both today and in the future because under climate change past observations do not represent today’s climate (Daron and Stainfo ...
Document
... moderate drought – this will rise to 50 per cent by 2100. The figure for severe drought, currently at about 8 per cent of the earth’s surface, will rise to 40 per cent. And the figure for extreme drought, currently 3 per cent, will rise to 30 per cent. Northern Kenya has often seen drought, but the ...
... moderate drought – this will rise to 50 per cent by 2100. The figure for severe drought, currently at about 8 per cent of the earth’s surface, will rise to 40 per cent. And the figure for extreme drought, currently 3 per cent, will rise to 30 per cent. Northern Kenya has often seen drought, but the ...
Act LX of 2007 on the implementation framework of the UN
... Registration System and the organisations emitting at least 100 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year shall provide these data for the National Registration System in accordance with the provisions of a separate legal instrument. (3) In order to have a more precise forecast of greenhouse gas em ...
... Registration System and the organisations emitting at least 100 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year shall provide these data for the National Registration System in accordance with the provisions of a separate legal instrument. (3) In order to have a more precise forecast of greenhouse gas em ...
A modified impulse-response representation of the global response
... chemistry, it displays a roughly constant cumulative airborne fraction under the exponential concentration increase scenarios considered here, unlike the ESMs which behave more like the FAIR model constructed in this paper (see figure 3, 4, 5 and 6 in Gregory et al. (2009)). In addition, as BEAM foc ...
... chemistry, it displays a roughly constant cumulative airborne fraction under the exponential concentration increase scenarios considered here, unlike the ESMs which behave more like the FAIR model constructed in this paper (see figure 3, 4, 5 and 6 in Gregory et al. (2009)). In addition, as BEAM foc ...
Evaluating the Use of Ocean Models of Different Complexity in
... such probabilistic studies using state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). In addition to the large computational demand, the use of AOGCMs in probabilistic studies has been restricted by the difficulty in changing the rate of heat uptake in ocean general circulating mod ...
... such probabilistic studies using state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). In addition to the large computational demand, the use of AOGCMs in probabilistic studies has been restricted by the difficulty in changing the rate of heat uptake in ocean general circulating mod ...
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... John Bellamy Foster has drawn our attention to the “Lauderdale Paradox”, after the eighth Earl of Lauderdale. “The common sense of mankind,” Lauderdale contended, “would revolt” at any proposal to augment private riches “by creating a scarcity of any commodity generally useful and necessary to man”. ...
... John Bellamy Foster has drawn our attention to the “Lauderdale Paradox”, after the eighth Earl of Lauderdale. “The common sense of mankind,” Lauderdale contended, “would revolt” at any proposal to augment private riches “by creating a scarcity of any commodity generally useful and necessary to man”. ...
Climate –carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C MIP
... Ten coupled climate-carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical and SRES A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850-2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to ...
... Ten coupled climate-carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical and SRES A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850-2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to ...
4.3 Approach to CLIMATE CHANGE Scenario Development
... make sense now. Climate change scenarios are scenarios of plausible changes in climate. They are used to understand what the consequences of climate change can be. Scenarios can also be used to provide inputs for change impacts, vulnerability assessment and identify and evaluate adaptation strategie ...
... make sense now. Climate change scenarios are scenarios of plausible changes in climate. They are used to understand what the consequences of climate change can be. Scenarios can also be used to provide inputs for change impacts, vulnerability assessment and identify and evaluate adaptation strategie ...
Document
... single factors, such as changes in distribution (e.g., from bioclimatic models; Peterson et al. 2002, Midgley et al. 2003, Thomas et al. 2004, Lawler et al. 2009b) or changes in phenology and the potential for phenological mismatches (e.g., Bradley et al. 1999, Visser and Both 2005). More recently, ...
... single factors, such as changes in distribution (e.g., from bioclimatic models; Peterson et al. 2002, Midgley et al. 2003, Thomas et al. 2004, Lawler et al. 2009b) or changes in phenology and the potential for phenological mismatches (e.g., Bradley et al. 1999, Visser and Both 2005). More recently, ...
`2°c capital stock` for electricity generation
... existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060 and find that the capital stock in 2010 entailed a commitment to a warming around 1.3°C above the pre-industrial era. Guivarch & Hallegatte (2011) build upon these results by including non-CO2 greenhouse gases and inertia in transportation infrastructur ...
... existing infrastructure between 2010 and 2060 and find that the capital stock in 2010 entailed a commitment to a warming around 1.3°C above the pre-industrial era. Guivarch & Hallegatte (2011) build upon these results by including non-CO2 greenhouse gases and inertia in transportation infrastructur ...
A values-based approach to vulnerability and adaptation to climate
... understandings of climate change. A values-based approach to climate change can be considered important for at least four reasons: climate change cannot be assessed or responded to in only one way; there may be value conflicts between different actors’ responses; future generations may judge based o ...
... understandings of climate change. A values-based approach to climate change can be considered important for at least four reasons: climate change cannot be assessed or responded to in only one way; there may be value conflicts between different actors’ responses; future generations may judge based o ...
- Wiley Online Library
... The socioeconomic value of better understanding the ECS is well documented. If the ECS were well below 1.5 K, climate change would be a less serious problem. The stakes are much higher for the upper bound. If the ECS were above 4.5 K, immediate and severe reductions of greenhouse gas emissions would ...
... The socioeconomic value of better understanding the ECS is well documented. If the ECS were well below 1.5 K, climate change would be a less serious problem. The stakes are much higher for the upper bound. If the ECS were above 4.5 K, immediate and severe reductions of greenhouse gas emissions would ...
Connecting Changing Ocean Circulation with Changing Climate
... with the anomalous surface heat flux. The fixed-current heat storage here shows pattern similarities with Banks and Gregory’s PAT. Both have large storage features in the North Atlantic and subtropical gyres. Figure 3 shows the zonal mean temperature and DIC change for the fixed- and free-current ex ...
... with the anomalous surface heat flux. The fixed-current heat storage here shows pattern similarities with Banks and Gregory’s PAT. Both have large storage features in the North Atlantic and subtropical gyres. Figure 3 shows the zonal mean temperature and DIC change for the fixed- and free-current ex ...
Bringin Adaptation to Ground in British Columbia
... et al. 2001; Walther et al. 2002). Interactions between these effects can create even more complexities. Increased evaporation from higher temperatures and reduced summer precipitation might result in more frequent and prolonged growing season soil moisture deficits and changes in nutrient cycling ( ...
... et al. 2001; Walther et al. 2002). Interactions between these effects can create even more complexities. Increased evaporation from higher temperatures and reduced summer precipitation might result in more frequent and prolonged growing season soil moisture deficits and changes in nutrient cycling ( ...
European atmosphere in 2050, a regional
... The total emissions of the main anthropogenic pollutants or precursors thereof are given in Table 1. The reference or CLE1 scenario in absence of climate policy already shows a decline by 2050 of about 35–45 % (depending on the constituent) of the current level of emissions, emphasising the efficien ...
... The total emissions of the main anthropogenic pollutants or precursors thereof are given in Table 1. The reference or CLE1 scenario in absence of climate policy already shows a decline by 2050 of about 35–45 % (depending on the constituent) of the current level of emissions, emphasising the efficien ...
Selecting and Using Climate Change Scenarios for British Columbia
... These guidelines and suggestions on the use of regional climate change scenarios were developed to support two major British Columbia climate change initiatives: the Future Forests and Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC) research program and the British Columbia Regional Adaptation Collaborative ( ...
... These guidelines and suggestions on the use of regional climate change scenarios were developed to support two major British Columbia climate change initiatives: the Future Forests and Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC) research program and the British Columbia Regional Adaptation Collaborative ( ...
Climate engineering
Climate engineering, also referred to as geoengineering or climate intervention, is the deliberate and large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climatic system with the aim of limiting adverse climate change. Climate engineering is an umbrella term for two types of measures: carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation management. Carbon dioxide removal addresses the cause of climate change by removing one of the greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere. Solar radiation management attempts to offset effects of greenhouse gases by causing the Earth to absorb less solar radiation.Climate engineering approaches are sometimes viewed as additional potential options for limiting climate change, alongside mitigation and adaptation. There is substantial agreement among scientists that climate engineering cannot substitute climate change mitigation. Some approaches might be used as accompanying measures to sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Given that all types of measures addressing climate change have economic, political or physical limitations a some climate engineering approaches might eventually be used as part of an ensemble of measures. Research on costs, benefits, and various types of risks of most climate engineering approaches is at an early stage and their understanding needs to improve to judge their adequacy and feasibility.No known large-scale climate engineering projects have taken place to date. Almost all research into solar geoengineering has consisted of computer modelling or laboratory tests, and attempts to move to real-world experimentation have proved controversial for many types of climate engineering. Some practices, such as planting of trees and whitening of surfaces as well as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage projects are underway, their scalability to effectively affect global climate is however debated. Ocean iron fertilization has been given small-scale research trials, sparking substantial controversy.Most experts and major reports advise against relying on geoengineering techniques as a simple solution to climate change, in part due to the large uncertainties over effectiveness and side effects. However, most experts also argue that the risks of such interventions must be seen in the context of risks of dangerous climate change. Interventions at large scale may run a greater risk disrupting natural systems resulting in a dilemma that those approaches that could prove highly (cost-) effective in addressing extreme climate risk, might themselves cause substantial risk. Some have suggested that the concept of geoengineering the climate presents a moral hazard because it could reduce political and public pressure for emissions reduction, which could exacerbate overall climate risks.Groups such as ETC Group and some climate researchers (such as Raymond Pierrehumbert) are in favour of a moratorium on out-of-doors testing and deployment of SRM.