changing risks in changing climate
... Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCPs are not linked to any socio-economic scenarios, but each of them is consistent with many socio-economic storylines because different socio-economic futures could lead to similar changes in atmospheric GHGs concentrations. Future impact can be shape ...
... Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCPs are not linked to any socio-economic scenarios, but each of them is consistent with many socio-economic storylines because different socio-economic futures could lead to similar changes in atmospheric GHGs concentrations. Future impact can be shape ...
Seasonal versus transient snow and the elevation dependence of
... area in the TSZ does not seem to influence trends in summer streamflow, probably because snow in the TSZ melts before July 1 and summer flows in these watersheds are a function of available baseflow [Tague and Grant, 2004]. [18] Average timings of DQF50 and DQF75 are highly dependent on the amount o ...
... area in the TSZ does not seem to influence trends in summer streamflow, probably because snow in the TSZ melts before July 1 and summer flows in these watersheds are a function of available baseflow [Tague and Grant, 2004]. [18] Average timings of DQF50 and DQF75 are highly dependent on the amount o ...
Climate and Terrestrial Ecosystem Change in the
... Figure 24. Average winter (Dec–Feb; top), spring (Mar–May; middle), and annual (bottom) minimum temperatures. ................................................................................................................................................37 Figure 25. Idealized relationship between n ...
... Figure 24. Average winter (Dec–Feb; top), spring (Mar–May; middle), and annual (bottom) minimum temperatures. ................................................................................................................................................37 Figure 25. Idealized relationship between n ...
Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon
... change scenariosat 10-km resolution.MC1 was run under two transient scenarios at 0.5? latitude/longitude resolution (approximately50-km). The reason for the discrepancybetween the number and the spatialresolutionof the two types of scenariosis that (a) there are fewer transient climate change scenar ...
... change scenariosat 10-km resolution.MC1 was run under two transient scenarios at 0.5? latitude/longitude resolution (approximately50-km). The reason for the discrepancybetween the number and the spatialresolutionof the two types of scenariosis that (a) there are fewer transient climate change scenar ...
Modelling the effects of climate change and
... number of thaw days increased by 17−26 %. Wildfire caused AcLTh to increase by 26−48 % in the year following fire; AcLTh differences in 2091−2100 were significant (8 cm) at one site. By 2100, climate change effects on AcLTh were larger than wildfire effects suggesting that persistent temperature inc ...
... number of thaw days increased by 17−26 %. Wildfire caused AcLTh to increase by 26−48 % in the year following fire; AcLTh differences in 2091−2100 were significant (8 cm) at one site. By 2100, climate change effects on AcLTh were larger than wildfire effects suggesting that persistent temperature inc ...
Hosed vs. unhosed: interruptions of the Atlantic Meridional
... Received: 29 August 2015 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 5 October 2015 Revised: 8 July 2016 – Accepted: 12 July 2016 – Published: 18 August 2016 ...
... Received: 29 August 2015 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 5 October 2015 Revised: 8 July 2016 – Accepted: 12 July 2016 – Published: 18 August 2016 ...
The Age of Western Wildfires
... there is more fuel available for burning in the short term. Recent research has shown, however, that over the long term, forests destroyed by beetle infestation may not be any more likely to burn than healthy forests.15 ...
... there is more fuel available for burning in the short term. Recent research has shown, however, that over the long term, forests destroyed by beetle infestation may not be any more likely to burn than healthy forests.15 ...
BACKGROUND PAPER Prepared for the 2015 Global Assessment
... climate risk and development concerns (p.10). The role of climate change itself – the range of potential futures depending on how much greenhouse gas concentrations are allowed to rise – is a less-explored dimension of the links between climate change and DRR. Yet this dimension is critical for unde ...
... climate risk and development concerns (p.10). The role of climate change itself – the range of potential futures depending on how much greenhouse gas concentrations are allowed to rise – is a less-explored dimension of the links between climate change and DRR. Yet this dimension is critical for unde ...
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Broads
... season by reducing the number of days boats were winterized. Even if projected August temperature increases led to a slight reduction in tourism in that month, the potential climate-‐related increase in the length of the season could potentially offset it. ...
... season by reducing the number of days boats were winterized. Even if projected August temperature increases led to a slight reduction in tourism in that month, the potential climate-‐related increase in the length of the season could potentially offset it. ...
Visualizing Future Climate in Latin America
... species and exacerbate the stresses already being experienced by ecosystems. There is now consensus that drastic actions are required to avert these scenarios. Climate change is the most serious challenge being faced by the global ecosystem. Regional Impacts In Latin America, climate impacts are ver ...
... species and exacerbate the stresses already being experienced by ecosystems. There is now consensus that drastic actions are required to avert these scenarios. Climate change is the most serious challenge being faced by the global ecosystem. Regional Impacts In Latin America, climate impacts are ver ...
Changes in terrestrial aridity for the period 850–2080 from the
... change of terrestrial-mean aridity due to the CO2 increase using CMIP5 transient 2xCO2 simulations, revealing a decrease in P/PET (i.e., a drier terrestrial climate) by ~3.4%/°C ocean mean surface temperature increase. Other studies also show a 21st century drying [Cook et al., 2014; Scheff and Frie ...
... change of terrestrial-mean aridity due to the CO2 increase using CMIP5 transient 2xCO2 simulations, revealing a decrease in P/PET (i.e., a drier terrestrial climate) by ~3.4%/°C ocean mean surface temperature increase. Other studies also show a 21st century drying [Cook et al., 2014; Scheff and Frie ...
Workshop-questions
... Often,an anthropogenic influence is assumed to be found when trends are found to be „significant“. • In many cases, the tests for assessing the significance of a trend are false as they fail to take into account serial correlation. • If the null-hypothesis is correctly rejected, then the conclusion ...
... Often,an anthropogenic influence is assumed to be found when trends are found to be „significant“. • In many cases, the tests for assessing the significance of a trend are false as they fail to take into account serial correlation. • If the null-hypothesis is correctly rejected, then the conclusion ...
allele frequency shifts in response to climate change and
... by female Pgi 1–1 homozygotes after exposure to cold (258C) was significantly better than 1–4 or 4–4 genotypes. These data suggest that the cooler climate of the mid-1990s may have caused an increase in frequency of the Pgi-1 allele, due to a more robust physiological response to cold by Pgi 1–1 and ...
... by female Pgi 1–1 homozygotes after exposure to cold (258C) was significantly better than 1–4 or 4–4 genotypes. These data suggest that the cooler climate of the mid-1990s may have caused an increase in frequency of the Pgi-1 allele, due to a more robust physiological response to cold by Pgi 1–1 and ...
Contrasting trends in floods for two sub
... and Pettersson, 2007; Zemp et al., 2009, Koblet et al., 2010). Changes in glacier area and volume likely alter the streamflow dynamics in the catchment in which they are located by changing both the amount and timing of water released during the melt season (e.g. Fountain and Tangborn, 1985; Röthli ...
... and Pettersson, 2007; Zemp et al., 2009, Koblet et al., 2010). Changes in glacier area and volume likely alter the streamflow dynamics in the catchment in which they are located by changing both the amount and timing of water released during the melt season (e.g. Fountain and Tangborn, 1985; Röthli ...
Misconceptions PowerPoint KB
... Group 1 – It’s not really warming 1. It is getting cooler - or at least the warming has stopped. 2. The Arctic sea ice is recovering back to normal 3. Antarctica is not warming and sea ice there has ...
... Group 1 – It’s not really warming 1. It is getting cooler - or at least the warming has stopped. 2. The Arctic sea ice is recovering back to normal 3. Antarctica is not warming and sea ice there has ...
WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT METHANE?
... Scale lab observations to estimate a global source of 62–236 Tg yr-1. Suggest that this can reconcile high CH4 observed over tropical forests Production mechanism unknown VERY CONTROVERSIAL Frakenberg et al., Science 2005 ...
... Scale lab observations to estimate a global source of 62–236 Tg yr-1. Suggest that this can reconcile high CH4 observed over tropical forests Production mechanism unknown VERY CONTROVERSIAL Frakenberg et al., Science 2005 ...
Moving beyond scientific knowledge: leveraging
... response to climate change is a difficult research goal. One problem is that knowledge acquisition is relatively easy to measure after an intervention (e.g., with a test), while behaviour change may occur well after learners have left the intervention context and returned to their lives. Thus, many ...
... response to climate change is a difficult research goal. One problem is that knowledge acquisition is relatively easy to measure after an intervention (e.g., with a test), while behaviour change may occur well after learners have left the intervention context and returned to their lives. Thus, many ...
Cusk (Brosme brosme) and climate change: assessing the threat to
... The “delta” method was used to develop future bottom temperature projections. This approach has been widely used for climate projections in both terrestrial and marine systems (e.g. Akhtar et al., 2008; Fogarty et al., 2008; Anandhi et al., 2011). The method uses the difference between a climate var ...
... The “delta” method was used to develop future bottom temperature projections. This approach has been widely used for climate projections in both terrestrial and marine systems (e.g. Akhtar et al., 2008; Fogarty et al., 2008; Anandhi et al., 2011). The method uses the difference between a climate var ...
Mid-Pliocene Westerlies from PlioMIP Simulations
... should perhaps see westerlies shifting equatorward in a cooling climate with a reduction of greenhouse gases. However, while some simulations have shown an equatorward shift, others have shown a poleward shift, or no significant shift at all (Rojas et al., 2009; Chavaillaz et al., 2013; Sime et al., ...
... should perhaps see westerlies shifting equatorward in a cooling climate with a reduction of greenhouse gases. However, while some simulations have shown an equatorward shift, others have shown a poleward shift, or no significant shift at all (Rojas et al., 2009; Chavaillaz et al., 2013; Sime et al., ...
Hydrologic impacts of climate change on the Nile River Basin
... The Nile River basin is home to almost 20% of Africa’s population. It has experienced high population growth rates, with the basin’s population expected to double by 2025 (Population Action International 2001). Virtually all projections are for continuing population growth, which in turn will increa ...
... The Nile River basin is home to almost 20% of Africa’s population. It has experienced high population growth rates, with the basin’s population expected to double by 2025 (Population Action International 2001). Virtually all projections are for continuing population growth, which in turn will increa ...
Global warming hiatus
A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such periods are evident in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long term warming trend.The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend, and so gave the appearance of a hiatus: by January 2006 assertions had been made that this showed that global warming had stopped. A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional, and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability, the rising temperature trend continued unabated. There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend, the IPCC included a section on a hiatus, which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012, than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012. Various studies examined possible causes of the short term slowdown. Even though the overall climate system had continued to accumulate energy due to Earth's positive energy budget, the available temperature readings at the earth's surface indicated slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade. Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space, the retained energy should be producing warming in at least one of the five parts of Earth's climate system.A July 2015 paper on the updated NOAA dataset cast doubt on the existence of this supposed hiatus, and found no indication of a slowdown. This analysis incorporated the latest corrections for known biases in ocean temperature measurements, and new land temperature data. Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study, though the view was expressed that the short term warming trend had been slower than in previous periods of the same length.