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Likely Impacts on New Zealand Agriculture
Likely Impacts on New Zealand Agriculture

... between the west and east coasts, with a likely decrease in average rainfall in many eastern regions, but specific predictions of the amount of change or regional boundaries are considered relatively uncertain at this stage. ...
Climate Change Regulation and PRediCtion maRkets
Climate Change Regulation and PRediCtion maRkets

... carbon is the estimate of the external damages of greenhouse gas emissions. And to re-emphasize Pindyck’s point, current estimates of economic damages stand on even more tenuous footing. To address this, a climate prediction market might go beyond climate conditions and be extended to predicting the ...
madagascar`s intended nationally determined contribution
madagascar`s intended nationally determined contribution

O 3 Environmental Advocacy in the Obama Years
O 3 Environmental Advocacy in the Obama Years

... Though relatively new in their broader popularity and visibility, each of these arguments and trends had long been fused together and articulated by way of the writing, advocacy, and warnings of Bill McKibben. Yet it took the failure of the national environmental organizations to pass cap and trade, ...
here. - APSIM
here. - APSIM

... Luo Q, Bellotti B, Bryan B, Williams M (2003) Risk analysis of possible environmental change and future crop production in South Australia. In: Solutions for a better environment, Proceedings of the 11th Australian Agronomy Conference, February 2003, Geelong. Luo Q, Bellotti W, Williams M, Bryan B ( ...
Bending the Curve - University of California
Bending the Curve - University of California

... droughts and forest fires. These extreme events, as well as the spread of certain infectious diseases, worsened air pollution, drinking water contamination and food shortages, are creating the beginning of what soon will be a global public health crisis. A whole new navigable ocean is opening in the ...
Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence
Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence

... in the fluxes of momentum, heat, water vapor, and carbon dioxide as well as other trace gases and both inorganic and biogenic aerosols including dust between vegetation, soils, and the atmosphere.1,6–17 In terms of an effect on the global average radiative imbalance, Forster et al.18 suggest that th ...
Coping With Change
Coping With Change

... Eastern Region (NER) of India, where most communities rely predominantly on natural resources for their livelihood. With the metamorphosis of the way things were, traditional knowledge is now faced with the challenge of adjusting to a new way of living, of understanding and reworking these relations ...
Assessment of fishers perception in developing
Assessment of fishers perception in developing

... are of immense importance as they provide livelihood opportunities for a large share of the population. The coastal state of Kerala is situated on the southwest coast of the Indian sub-continent, with an area of about 38,863 square kilometers and has a coastline of 589.5 kms, which apparently forms ...
American Academy of Pediatrics • American Heart Association
American Academy of Pediatrics • American Heart Association

... According to the most recent assessments31, the nation has experienced increased heavy rainfall and flooding since 1991. Flooding causes premature deaths, often through drowning, but the aftermath of flooding expands the burden. Water damage leaves behind lingering risks including dampness and mold, ...
DOCX - World bank documents
DOCX - World bank documents

... economic losses from climate-related and geological perils are rising, averaging US$100 billion per annum over the last decade. In the first six months of 2010, the economic losses caused by natural disasters amounted to US$72 billion.1 In addition to the economic toll, natural disasters have been t ...
AllanRP_PAGODA2013Nov - University of Reading, Meteorology
AllanRP_PAGODA2013Nov - University of Reading, Meteorology

... 1. Quantify observed changes in the water cycle on global-to-regional space scales and decadal time scales and evaluate consistency with processes anticipated by simple models and depicted by GCMs 2. Elucidate key regional processes and feedbacks relating to energy and water fluxes, ocean salinity, ...
evaluating the impacts of climate change on catchment
evaluating the impacts of climate change on catchment

... 1.3 Significance of Climate Change In the northern hemisphere the period between 1982-2012 represented the warmest thirty year period for 1400 years (IPCC 2013). With global greenhouse gas emissions continuing to rise these trends seem set to continue (IPCC 213). This warming results in increasing p ...
Typologies of Loss and Damage and Associated Actions
Typologies of Loss and Damage and Associated Actions

... The latter highlights questions such as how to deal with the loss of homeland and sovereignty, and discussion of actions includes reference to reparation or compensation. The Risk Management and Limits to Adaptation typologies are situated somewhere between these two, including both ex-ante and ex-p ...
Bending the Curve - UC Carbon Neutrality Summit
Bending the Curve - UC Carbon Neutrality Summit

... droughts and forest fires. These extreme events, as well as the spread of certain infectious diseases, worsened air pollution, drinking water contamination and food shortages, are creating the beginning of what soon will be a global public health crisis. A whole new navigable ocean is opening in the ...
climate change for beginners
climate change for beginners

Submission by Japan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Submission by Japan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate

... Adaptation to the impacts of climate change is nowadays essential for every country, as changes in climate have caused impacts on natural ecosystems and human societies on all continents and across the oceans. As a national adaptation planning process, the Central Environment Council conducted clima ...
Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science
Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science

... Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with ...
Guatemala: Country Note on Climate Change
Guatemala: Country Note on Climate Change

... United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Land use change and forestry are by far the largest contributors to GHG emissions in the country. The emission reduction potential of the sector is large, but not sufficiently explored. Guatemala counts with 8 CDM projects, one of which ...
Introductions PowerPoint
Introductions PowerPoint

... University of Colorado at Boulder, reports that ice melt patterns are “about 30 years ahead of where the climate models say we should be” (qtd. in Thompson). Over time, the increased ocean levels caused by the melting ice could affect or potentially displace the 673 million people who live on the wo ...
Visualizing Life Zone Boundary Sensitivities Across Climate Models
Visualizing Life Zone Boundary Sensitivities Across Climate Models

... as a basic research tool useful for understanding Earth’s past, present, and future climate states. For the CMIP3 simulations used here, CCSM3 was run using a Gaussian grid with 128 latitude and 256 longitude points for the atmosphere and land components and a variable one-degree grid for the ocean ...
Sensitivity to climate change for two reptiles at the Mojave
Sensitivity to climate change for two reptiles at the Mojave

... shift in rainfall resulted in conditions that were rare or non-existent across the greater Joshua Tree National Park landscape and so the temperature or precipitation alone shifted models yielded unrealistic estimates of how climate change may impact these species. Therefore I only considered the mo ...
Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the 21st century
Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the 21st century

... resolution, covering the entire continental U.S. [Stoner et al., 2013]. We adopted projected future climate data from three general circulation models (GCMs) (Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3), European Centre/Hamburg (ECHAM), and Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis ( ...
International Journal of Web Information Systems
International Journal of Web Information Systems

... future), (fight,climate), (blind,spot), (solar,power), (challenging,political), (political, climate), (cloudy,picture), (extreme,heat), (climate,risks), (climate,justice), (conservation, measures), (global,forest), (forest,carbon), (carbon,balance), (flood,risk), (challenging, climate), (carbon,budg ...
The Copenhagen Diagnosis - Climate Change Research Centre
The Copenhagen Diagnosis - Climate Change Research Centre

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Attribution of recent climate change



Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly in the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms (to which recent climate change has been attributed) are anthropogenic, i.e., the result of human activity. They are: increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is ""extremely likely"" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. The IPCC defines ""extremely likely"" as indicating a probability of 95 to 100%, based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: A basic physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by most scientists, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: scientific opinion on climate change).
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