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Реконструкция глобальной температуры с
Реконструкция глобальной температуры с

... 2 – long-; 3 – middle-; 4 – short-term stream meanders ...
Climate Change and the Global Economy
Climate Change and the Global Economy

... ­concentration from pre-industrial levels. Yet the latest IPCC’s BAU scenarios are expected to result in a tripling or quadrupling of concentrations by the end of the century, implying higher temperatures than those assumed in most ­studies. More recent, risk-based approaches to the analysis of dama ...
An efficient regional energy-moisture balance
An efficient regional energy-moisture balance

Adaptation to Climate Change in the Houston
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Houston

... precipitation or wind) lasting for an extended period (decades or longer) (EPA, 2007). While there has been much debate in the past 20 years over the causes of climate change, scientific organizations have documented statistically significant changes that have occurred due to climate change. The Nat ...
Observations and their analysis in WCRP/COPES
Observations and their analysis in WCRP/COPES

...  Satellites only after 1979, last order 5 years, drift in orbit, change instruments, calibration  Bias corrections are applied but remain imperfect  Continuity is a key issue, especially for climate change  Further technological development, change and improvement is expected.  Major challenge ...
The impact of climate change on seasonal snow
The impact of climate change on seasonal snow

... Research Overview & Progress Jordy Hendrikx - National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) ...
A note on including climate change adaptation in an international
A note on including climate change adaptation in an international

... that reduces the vulnerability to climate change, i.e., the welfare losses potentially caused by climate change (Def 3). With this definition, a measure that is implemented for non-climatic reasons, but that yields benefits from a climate-change point-of-view is considered as an adaptation measure. ...
2. The impacts of climate change on the benthos
2. The impacts of climate change on the benthos

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National Capacity Self-Assessment
National Capacity Self-Assessment

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Factors Affecting Global Tourism
Factors Affecting Global Tourism

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Overcoming Obstacles to U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate Change
Overcoming Obstacles to U.S.-China Cooperation on Climate Change

... in human history and rising sharply. Predicted consequences include sea-level rise, more severe storms, more intense droughts and floods, forest loss and the spread of tropical disease. Each of these phenomena is already occurring. Every year of delay in reducing greenhouse gas emissions puts the pl ...
Climate Change, Migration, and Displacement | Greenpeace
Climate Change, Migration, and Displacement | Greenpeace

... CLIMATE CHANGE, MIGRATION, AND DISPLACEMENT3 ...
Temperatures in transient climates
Temperatures in transient climates

... even in the absence of a change in mean (e.g., Wheeler et al. (2000)). In part because of examples like this, the climate and impacts communities have been interested in understanding changes in temperature variability in future climates. Potential future changes in temperature variability are not ...
- Open University of Tanzania Repository
- Open University of Tanzania Repository

... life style and whose hope is relaying on educating their children so that after completing their duties they will be beneficiaries of the acquired knowledge and skills so as to be able to solve their global climate – change crisis. Improving links between climate change education curriculum and coun ...
Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under
Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the Western US under

Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy 2014
Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy 2014

... Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses (GHG) have risen, with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increasing from 280 to around 400 parts per million (ppm). An increase in GHGs causes an increase in global temperatures through a phenomenon common ...
The Critical Decade 2013
The Critical Decade 2013

... report, a comprehensive synthesis of the most recent climate change science, received significant traction in Australia and overseas. The phrase, ‘the critical decade’, has become the defining mantra for the Climate Commission, emphasising the clear imperative of significant Australian and global ac ...
In the hot seat: Insolation, ENSO, and vegetation in the African tropics
In the hot seat: Insolation, ENSO, and vegetation in the African tropics

... [9] Regression coefficients between NDVI and each climate variable are displayed on the resultant regression maps. The patterns displayed in these maps represent regions of negative (brown) and positive (green) correlation to each climate variable, while grey represents regions of no relationship bet ...
Observational evidence for human impact on aerosol cloud
Observational evidence for human impact on aerosol cloud

... the zonal and meridional circulation classes are well reproduced even if we analyse only two-year episodes. The result points to the dominant influence of pollution and not to changes in circulation. In winter the most pronounced radius effect occurred during JF for both the zonal and meridional circu ...
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse
Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse

... climate modelling evidence for a doubling in the occurrences in the future in response to greenhouse warming. We estimate the change by aggregating results from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 (CMIP3; ref. 10) and 5 (CMIP5; ref. 11) multi-model databases, and a p ...
EDUCATIONAL POLICIES COMMITTEE MINUTES 7 April 2016
EDUCATIONAL POLICIES COMMITTEE MINUTES 7 April 2016

PDF
PDF

Central Mekong Delta Region Connectivity Project
Central Mekong Delta Region Connectivity Project

... The assessment process used a multi-model ensemble of six general circulation models, two global emissions scenarios, statistical downscaling techniques, and a suite of modeling tools developed for the Mekong over the past 15 years to build an evidence base of climate change vulnerability. Results b ...
Potential Climate Change Impacts on Marine Resources
Potential Climate Change Impacts on Marine Resources

... Georges Bank, Western Gulf of Maine, and Eastern Gulf of Maine. Dramatic differences are evident for the low and high emission scenarios for projected bottom temperature levels. For the low emission scenario in particular, substantial differences are noted among models and over the time course of th ...
Clathrate gun hypothesis - Wikipedia, the free
Clathrate gun hypothesis - Wikipedia, the free

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Attribution of recent climate change



Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent changes observed in the Earth's climate, commonly known as 'global warming'. The effort has focused on changes observed during the period of instrumental temperature record, when records are most reliable; particularly in the last 50 years, when human activity has grown fastest and observations of the troposphere have become available. The dominant mechanisms (to which recent climate change has been attributed) are anthropogenic, i.e., the result of human activity. They are: increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases global changes to land surface, such as deforestation increasing atmospheric concentrations of aerosols.There are also natural mechanisms for variation including climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, and volcanic activity.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it is ""extremely likely"" that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951 and 2010. The IPCC defines ""extremely likely"" as indicating a probability of 95 to 100%, based on an expert assessment of all the available evidence.Multiple lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: A basic physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic activity) cannot explain the observed warming.The IPCC's attribution of recent global warming to human activities is a view shared by most scientists, and is also supported by 196 other scientific organizations worldwide (see also: scientific opinion on climate change).
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