Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for
... and especially its upper bound, will probably not be resolved to a high degree of confidence in the next decade. For many spatial planning and infrastructure projects with a life span of a century or more, however, low-probability/highimpact projections are needed today, as the cost of preparing for ...
... and especially its upper bound, will probably not be resolved to a high degree of confidence in the next decade. For many spatial planning and infrastructure projects with a life span of a century or more, however, low-probability/highimpact projections are needed today, as the cost of preparing for ...
Global indirect aerosol effects: a review
... www.atmos-chem-phys.org/acp/5/715/ SRef-ID: 1680-7324/acp/2005-5-715 ...
... www.atmos-chem-phys.org/acp/5/715/ SRef-ID: 1680-7324/acp/2005-5-715 ...
Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure - ISER
... climate. Here are a few important points about our current model. ...
... climate. Here are a few important points about our current model. ...
Climate Change and European Agriculture - EDOC HU
... method of Gaussian Quadratures. Despite the necessity of sensitivity analysis in climate impact assessments, stochastic analysis has so far been neglected in literature. The second method uses the five individual LPJmL outputs to generate a distribution of results. That way, uncertainty stemming fro ...
... method of Gaussian Quadratures. Despite the necessity of sensitivity analysis in climate impact assessments, stochastic analysis has so far been neglected in literature. The second method uses the five individual LPJmL outputs to generate a distribution of results. That way, uncertainty stemming fro ...
Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade
... Arctic sea-ice thins and retreats, it is expected that new shipping routes within the Arctic Ocean will ...
... Arctic sea-ice thins and retreats, it is expected that new shipping routes within the Arctic Ocean will ...
Full-Text PDF
... of China have been found to result in later spring freezes which can severely impact tea growth and development [24]. Changes in prevailing weather patterns are expected to continue across China in the future according to various climate change projections. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climat ...
... of China have been found to result in later spring freezes which can severely impact tea growth and development [24]. Changes in prevailing weather patterns are expected to continue across China in the future according to various climate change projections. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climat ...
Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change
... change and with these will come extreme weather. This is of considerable consequence in Europe as it impacts on the vulnerability of communities across the continent and exposes them to environmental risks. It is now widely recognised that failures in international efforts to agree on the action nec ...
... change and with these will come extreme weather. This is of considerable consequence in Europe as it impacts on the vulnerability of communities across the continent and exposes them to environmental risks. It is now widely recognised that failures in international efforts to agree on the action nec ...
Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the
... reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in ...
... reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in ...
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation over Lake
... fluxes between the oceans, atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs for long term simulations in the earth system models. They are capable of using time-evolving emissions of constituents to interactively compute concentrations. ...
... fluxes between the oceans, atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere carbon reservoirs for long term simulations in the earth system models. They are capable of using time-evolving emissions of constituents to interactively compute concentrations. ...
Projected expansion of the subtropical biome and contraction of the
... the biomes switch. For example, the 20-year median, monthly depth-integrated primary production estimates in the boundary box at the beginning and the end of the century reveal the temperate seasonality, with a spring peak at the beginning of the century that is replaced by a subtropical, less seaso ...
... the biomes switch. For example, the 20-year median, monthly depth-integrated primary production estimates in the boundary box at the beginning and the end of the century reveal the temperate seasonality, with a spring peak at the beginning of the century that is replaced by a subtropical, less seaso ...
Basic physical mechanisms for monsoon failure in past and future
... rainfall after the surface land–sea thermal contrast has ceased. I frame this moisture–advection feedback in a minimal conceptual model and show that it leads to a threshold behaviour with respect to changes in the system’s energy budget. In particular, when either net radiation over land or specifi ...
... rainfall after the surface land–sea thermal contrast has ceased. I frame this moisture–advection feedback in a minimal conceptual model and show that it leads to a threshold behaviour with respect to changes in the system’s energy budget. In particular, when either net radiation over land or specifi ...
Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates
... design of global climate policy (O’Neill & Oppenheimer, 2002; O’Neill & Oppenheimer, 2004). Previous studies have estimated the impact of climate change on coral bleaching by the relating projected future sea surface temperatures (SST) from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the c ...
... design of global climate policy (O’Neill & Oppenheimer, 2002; O’Neill & Oppenheimer, 2004). Previous studies have estimated the impact of climate change on coral bleaching by the relating projected future sea surface temperatures (SST) from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the c ...
KNMI`14: Climate Change scenarios for the 21st Century – A
... larger than in the 4 report, AR4 (IPCC, 2007). Contribution of melting ice caps and glaciers and terrestrial water extraction are now included in the estimations. Explicit regional effects, such as changes in gravitational pull by ice mass changes, are also included in this assessment. For the end o ...
... larger than in the 4 report, AR4 (IPCC, 2007). Contribution of melting ice caps and glaciers and terrestrial water extraction are now included in the estimations. Explicit regional effects, such as changes in gravitational pull by ice mass changes, are also included in this assessment. For the end o ...
Impacts of Large-Scale Reforestation Programmes on Regional
... erodible crop land into natural vegetation by 1990, which effectively reduced soil erosion and enhanced wildlife habitats (Ribaudo et al. 1990). Furthermore, a congressional project of reforestation is planned for the southeast of the United States to help mitigate global warming; around 7 million h ...
... erodible crop land into natural vegetation by 1990, which effectively reduced soil erosion and enhanced wildlife habitats (Ribaudo et al. 1990). Furthermore, a congressional project of reforestation is planned for the southeast of the United States to help mitigate global warming; around 7 million h ...
Estimating natural and anthropogenic responses of the water cycle
... Strong and growing quantitative evidence is at hand that the Earth's climate has undergone distinct changes in the past. During the last millennium the in uence of external and internal processes rendered both warmer and colder periods, the most pronounced of which are referred to as the Medieval Cl ...
... Strong and growing quantitative evidence is at hand that the Earth's climate has undergone distinct changes in the past. During the last millennium the in uence of external and internal processes rendered both warmer and colder periods, the most pronounced of which are referred to as the Medieval Cl ...
Climate change detection in natural systems by
... The present PhD thesis focuses on climate change detection in natural systems by Bayesian analysis. In particular it seeks to detect changes in temperature and biological systems (vegetation; phenology of plants) and intends to improve the understanding of responses to climate change with the help o ...
... The present PhD thesis focuses on climate change detection in natural systems by Bayesian analysis. In particular it seeks to detect changes in temperature and biological systems (vegetation; phenology of plants) and intends to improve the understanding of responses to climate change with the help o ...
Application for CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs
... 1) climate change policies (targeting mostly WMGHGs), 2) air quality policies (targeting mostly NTCF emissions including CH4 that are precursors of tropospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone) and 3) land‐use policies. AerChemMIP aims to identify the patterns of chemical change at the global an ...
... 1) climate change policies (targeting mostly WMGHGs), 2) air quality policies (targeting mostly NTCF emissions including CH4 that are precursors of tropospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone) and 3) land‐use policies. AerChemMIP aims to identify the patterns of chemical change at the global an ...
Mid-Holocene monsoons - Macquarie University ResearchOnline
... simulations with fully-coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Analysis of the PMIP1 AGCM simulations allows us to diagnose the direct effects of orbital forcing on the northern and southern hemisphere monsoons. Comparison of the two sets of simulations allows us to examine the impacts ...
... simulations with fully-coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Analysis of the PMIP1 AGCM simulations allows us to diagnose the direct effects of orbital forcing on the northern and southern hemisphere monsoons. Comparison of the two sets of simulations allows us to examine the impacts ...
Michael E. Schlesinger, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
... for a 10-year delay in initiating the transition to a reduced-greenhouse-gas scenario is small." In 1994 he discovered a 65-70 year temperature oscillation in observed surface temperatures for the North Atlantic Ocean and its bordering continental regions, a finding that was reported in Discover Mag ...
... for a 10-year delay in initiating the transition to a reduced-greenhouse-gas scenario is small." In 1994 he discovered a 65-70 year temperature oscillation in observed surface temperatures for the North Atlantic Ocean and its bordering continental regions, a finding that was reported in Discover Mag ...
US CLIVAR Science Plan
... system. Continued advancement is needed in all these areas. As appreciation evolves of the interconnectedness of the physical, biological, and chemical elements of the Earth system that impact on and are impacted by climate, US CLIVAR is compelled to engage with other Earth science communities to im ...
... system. Continued advancement is needed in all these areas. As appreciation evolves of the interconnectedness of the physical, biological, and chemical elements of the Earth system that impact on and are impacted by climate, US CLIVAR is compelled to engage with other Earth science communities to im ...
PDF
... publication bias and selection bias introduced by the analysts. This includes making sure that all primary studies measure the same effect,3 and discussing any necessary adjustment of the dependent variable. While testing for publication bias is recommended in meta-analysis studies, these tests cann ...
... publication bias and selection bias introduced by the analysts. This includes making sure that all primary studies measure the same effect,3 and discussing any necessary adjustment of the dependent variable. While testing for publication bias is recommended in meta-analysis studies, these tests cann ...
Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Snowfall
... total precipitation that falls as snow as determined by the monthly mean 2-m temperature T. For both the derived historical snowfall data and the model output, a constant 10:1 ratio was used to convert liquid precipitation to a snowfall depth equivalent for easier comparison to snowfall observations ...
... total precipitation that falls as snow as determined by the monthly mean 2-m temperature T. For both the derived historical snowfall data and the model output, a constant 10:1 ratio was used to convert liquid precipitation to a snowfall depth equivalent for easier comparison to snowfall observations ...
Atmospheric model
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either global, covering the entire Earth, or regional (limited-area), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases computational speed.Forecasts are computed using mathematical equations for the physics and dynamics of the atmosphere. These equations are nonlinear and are impossible to solve exactly. Therefore, numerical methods obtain approximate solutions. Different models use different solution methods. Global models often use spectral methods for the horizontal dimensions and finite-difference methods for the vertical dimension, while regional models usually use finite-difference methods in all three dimensions. For specific locations, model output statistics use climate information, output from numerical weather prediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships which account for model bias and resolution issues.