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1│Magness et al 1 2 APPENDIX A: EXAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE 2│Magness et al 3 3│Magness et al 4 4│Magness et al 5 5│Magness et al 6 7 6│Magness et al 8 9 7│Magness et al 10 11 8│Magness et al 12 13 9│Magness et al 14 15 10│Magness et al 16 APPENDIX B: CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS USED IN 3 QUESTIONNARIES. 17 SCENARIOS AND CITED LITERATURE LABELED BY QUESTION FOR 18 SCENARIO (SEE FIG. 1) AND TARGET OF SCENARIO 19 1. Q1: Range Expansion—Endangered Species Scenario 20 The northern spotted owl is a threatened species that is restricted to old-growth forests in the 21 Pacific Northwest. Northern spotted owls are displaced from occupied territories when barred 22 owls are present. Barred owls were historically restricted to eastern North America, but have 23 extended their range westward across Canada to British Columbia. From British Columbia, 24 the barred owl range continued to expand south into the Pacific Northwest and north to 25 southeast Alaska. Among other factors, climate change may have facilitated the range 26 expansion of barred owls. Future climate change may cause barred owl populations to 27 increase at the expense of the spotted owl population. 28 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Barred owls should not be considered an invasive species 29 in the historic range of the northern spotted owl because barred owls are 30 expanding their range without human assistance. Allow barred owl populations to 31 increase as spotted owl populations decline. Focus effort of reducing other 32 stressors to northern spotted owl populations, such as instituting forest 33 management practices that reduce old-growth habitat. 34 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider barred owl to be an invasive species within the 35 historic range of northern spotted owls. Engage in efforts such as trapping to 36 control barred owl populations within the historic range of northern spotted owl. 37 38 39 40 Kelly, E. G., E. D. Forsman, and R. G. Anthony. 2003. Are barred owls displacing spotted owls? The Condor 105:45-53. Peterson, A. T., and C. R. Robins. 2003.Using ecological-niche modeling to predict barred owl invasions with implications for spotted owl conservation. Conservation Biology 11│Magness et al 41 42 17:1161-1165. 2. Q1: Range Expansion—Single-species Scenario 43 Red fox are moving northward into areas historically occupied by arctic fox, due to a 44 warming climate. Arctic fox are unable to expand their range northward because the Arctic 45 Ocean is an obstacle. Arctic fox are competitively excluded from areas occupied by red fox, 46 so the arctic fox population is declining. 47 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Red fox should not be considered an invasive species 48 within the range of arctic fox because red fox are moving without human 49 assistance. Allow red fox populations to increase as arctic fox populations decline. 50 Study the climatic limits of red fox distributions and, based on future scenarios of 51 climate change, identify the local areas within the historic range of Arctic fox that 52 will likely serve as refugia in the future. Focus on efforts to conserve lands 53 identified as likely arctic fox refugia. 54 b. Reactionary Strategy: Treat red fox as an invasive species within the historic 55 range of arctic fox. Engage in efforts, such as trapping, to control red fox 56 populations within the historic range of arctic fox in order to maintain historic 57 arctic fox population levels. 58 Hersteinsson, P., and D. W. MacDonald. 1992. Interspecific competition and the 59 geographical distribution of red and arctic foxes Vulpes vulpes and Alopes lagopus. 60 Okios 64:505-515. 61 3. Q1: Range Expansion— Ecosystem Scenario 62 Mountain pine beetles were historically distributed in lodgepole pine ecosystems of the 63 western United States. Although lodgepole pines extend into Canada, mountain pine beetles 64 have been limited from expanding northward by climate and limited from expanding 65 eastward by the Great Plains. Recently, mild temperatures have allowed mountain pine 12│Magness et al 66 beetles to expand northward into lodgepole pine and jack pine forests in British Columbia, 67 causing a beetle outbreak that is unprecedented in size and located in an area with no 68 previously observed beetle activity. Large numbers of beetles have also been documented 69 dispersing through low-elevation mountain passes and have established populations east of 70 the Continental Divide where mountain pine beetles have never occurred. Mountain pine 71 beetles have the potential to move across the contiguous boreal jack pine forests of eastern 72 North America all the way to the loblolly forests of the southeastern United States. The 73 ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle range expansion are currently unknown, but 74 have the potential to be devastating. 75 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Mountain pine beetles should not be treated as an 76 invasive species east of the Continental Divide because they are native and are 77 moving without human assistance. Allow mountain pine beetles to move into 78 areas where they naturally colonize. Monitor the effects of mountain pine beetles 79 on the ecosystems east of the Continental Divide. Identify isolated stands in the 80 East that can serve as forest refugia, given beetle outbreaks, and focus efforts on 81 conserving these stands. 82 b. Reactionary Strategy: Mountain pine beetles should be treated as an invasive 83 species east of the Continental Divide because they were not historically present 84 there. Monitor outbreaks that occur east of the Continental Divide and control the 85 spread of these outbreaks with pesticides, biological control, and forestry 86 practices. 87 88 89 90 Logan, J. 2006. Climate change induced invasions by native and exotic pests. Unpublished manuscript at www.usu.edu/beetle/documetns/Logan06_abstract.pdf. 4. Q2: Translocation—Endangered Species Scenario The Hawaiian monk seal is an endangered species with a population of <1,500 individuals 13│Magness et al 91 that occur primarily in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Most of these islands are low- 92 lying and are therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise that is predicted to occur with future 93 climate change. As much as 65% of island habitats are projected to be lost under a median 94 scenario of climate change. Sandy beaches adjacent to shallow waters are important sites for 95 parturition and nursing. Sea-level rise will decrease the size of these beaches, causing 96 crowding and competition for suitable habitat. In addition, the crowding of monk seals on the 97 remaining beaches has been suggested to facilitate shark predation on the pups. 98 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Identify habitats that could support monk seal 99 populations in the future, given climate change. Conduct translocations of animals 100 to these locations even if they occur outside the historic range for Hawaiian monk 101 seals. On beaches where seals have historically occurred, allow the population to 102 decline to levels that can be supported by the limited beach habitat as sea levels 103 rise. 104 b. Reactionary Strategy: Focus efforts on protecting existing seal beaches from 105 inundation and erosion with engineered structures. Use dredge spoil to replenish 106 beaches after erosion events and to build up areas subject to inundation. Try to 107 maintain historic population levels on beaches where seals currently occur by 108 reducing other stressors to monk seal populations, such as disturbances from 109 domestic animals and shark predation. 110 Baker, J. D., C. L. Littnan, and D. W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the 111 terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern 112 Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 2:21-30. 113 5. Q2: Translocation— Single-species Scenario 114 Desert bighorn sheep are a subspecies of bighorn sheep. Hotter temperatures and a decrease 115 in precipitation in southeastern California have reduced the forage available for desert 14│Magness et al 116 bighorn sheep. Lack of forage has been a contributing factor in the extinction of 30 of the 80 117 known populations. Increased temperature and a lack of precipitation in the future will 118 significantly increase the probability of more population extinctions. 119 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Identify alternative habitats that could provide suitable 120 forage for desert bighorn sheep in the future as climate conditions change. 121 Conduct translocations of animals to these locations even if they occur outside the 122 historic range of desert bighorn sheep. In habitats where bighorn sheep have 123 historically occurred, allow population to decline to levels that can be supported 124 by available forage, given hotter, drier conditions. 125 b. Reactionary Strategy: Focus efforts on maintaining current population levels in 126 habitat where sheep have historically occurred. Reduce other stressors on desert 127 sheep populations, such as hunting pressure, predation rates, domestic sheep 128 grazing, and other disturbance. Begin a feeding program to ensure adequate 129 nutrition in years when forage is lacking. 130 Epps, C. W., D. R. McCullough, J. D. Wehausen, V. C. Bleigh, and J. L. Rechel. 2004. 131 Effects of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain 132 sheep in California. Conservation Biology 18:102-113 133 6. Q2: Translocation—Ecosystem Scenario 134 Predicted levels of sea-level rise indicate complete inundation (within the next 50 yr) of an 135 island that includes several unique habitat types that support endemic species of amphibians, 136 arthropods, and plants. 137 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow island to be inundated. Conduct translocations of 138 endemic species to other islands or mainland areas with similar habitat, even 139 though these areas are outside of the historic range for these species. 140 b. Reactionary Strategy: Construct levee, dyke, or other engineered structures to 15│Magness et al 141 142 protect island. 7. Q3: Restoration Reference Point—Endangered Species Scenario 143 The Hawaiian monk seal is an endangered species with a population of <1,500 individuals 144 that occur primarily in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Most of these islands are low- 145 lying and are therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise that is predicted to occur with future 146 climate change. As much as 65% of island habitats are projected to be lost under a median 147 scenario of climate change. Sandy beaches adjacent to shallow waters are important sites for 148 parturition and nursing. Sea-level rise will decrease the size of these beaches, causing 149 crowding and competition for suitable habitat. In addition, the crowding of monk seals on the 150 remaining beaches has been suggested to facilitate shark predation on the pups. Loss of beach 151 habitat and increased pup mortality increases the probability of a population decline and the 152 global extinction of the species. 153 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow the population to shift to levels that can be 154 supported by the limited beach habitat available in the future. Reduce other 155 stressors to the monk seal population that occur due to human disturbance. Use a 156 population-viability analysis to identify the minimum population size needed to 157 avoid extinction. If the limited beach habitat results in a population size below the 158 population minimum, use techniques such as captive breeding. 159 b. Reactionary Strategy: Work to maintain current population levels while trying to 160 restore population numbers to historic levels. Reduce other stressors to monk seal 161 populations due to human disturbance and engage in efforts to reduce shark 162 predation. If reducing other stressors does not fully compensate for the loss of 163 beach habitat, use dredge soil to replenish beaches after erosion events and to 164 build up areas subject to inundation. 165 Baker, J. D., C. L. Littnan, and D. W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the 16│Magness et al 166 terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern 167 Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 2:21-30. 168 8. Q3: Restoration Reference Point—Single-species Scenario 169 The wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region provide important breeding habitat for 170 canvasback ducks. Temperature and rainfall affect wetland condition. Wetland condition 171 affects the size of the breeding population in a given area and the reproductive success of 172 canvasback. Climate-change projections predict that warming temperatures and changing 173 precipitation patterns will result in fewer wetlands and greater annual variability in surface 174 water. These changes are linked to lowered reproductive success, due to factors such as lower 175 nesting success, smaller clutch sizes, and lower brood survival. Your refuge in the prairie 176 pothole region has been subject to drought conditions for several years, leading to a reduction 177 in high-quality wetland habitat and reduced canvasback numbers. 178 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow wetland conditions within your refuge to change 179 with the changing climate. Allow the canvasback population within the refuge 180 boundary to decline to levels that can be supported by wetland conditions in the 181 future. Change current refuge focus from waterfowl management to prairie 182 restoration. 183 b. Reactionary Strategy: At a minimum, work to maintain the current population 184 levels of canvasback while trying to restore the population to historic levels. 185 Maintain canvasback habitat with engineered structures to control water levels and 186 by pumping groundwater into managed wetlands. Engage in predator control to 187 compensate for the lowered reproductive success caused by wetland conditions. 188 Inkley, D. B., M. G. Anderson, A. R. Blaustein, V. R. Burkett, B. Felzer, B. Griffith, J. Price, 189 and T. L. Root. 2004. Global climate change and wildlife in North America. The 190 Wildlife Society Technical Review 04-2, Bethesda, Maryland, USA. 17│Magness et al 191 9. Q3: Restoration Reference Point—Ecosystem Scenario 192 Approximately one-third of coastal marshland has been lost since the 1930s on your refuge. 193 Sea-level rise inundates coastal marshlands and sea levels are expected to continue to rise 194 with climate change. Nutria, an exotic rodent, also contributes to the loss of coastal 195 marshland through overgrazing. Nutria populations are limited by harsh winter conditions 196 and may increase in numbers with a warming climate. The area of coastal marshland within 197 your refuge is decreasing. 198 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow the current area of coastal marshland within your 199 refuge boundary to convert to deeper water habitat. Shift management focus on 200 refuge from dabbling ducks to diving ducks. Engage in efforts to identify and 201 conserve lands that will be coastal marshland in the future. Work to facilitate the 202 movement of coastal marshland inland across refuge lands by raising roadbeds, 203 even if marshland in the future will occur outside of the refuge boundary. 204 b. Reactionary Strategy: At a minimum, work to maintain the current area of 205 coastal marshland habitat in your refuge boundaries while trying to restore coastal 206 marshland to historic levels. Focus efforts on reducing nutria populations to 207 minimize nutria contribution to marshland loss. Work to restore wetlands through 208 reducing saltwater inundation with engineered structures, the beneficial use of 209 dredge spoil, supplemental planting efforts, and prescribed fire. 210 10. Q4: Local Extirpation—Endangered Species Scenario 211 Loggerhead sea turtles are an endangered species with major nesting grounds in the United 212 States from North Carolina to southwest Florida and minor nesting grounds occurring 213 westward to Texas and northward to Virginia. Globally, 3 populations of loggerhead turtles 214 exist, with some nesting activity on every continent. Climate change is expected to affect 215 loggerhead sea-turtle nesting habitat via rising sea levels due to factors such as the thermal 18│Magness et al 216 expansion of warming oceans and glacial melt. Erosion of nesting habitat will also be 217 accelerated by increases in the frequency of storm events. Narrow, low-elevation beaches are 218 the most susceptible to inundation. Beaches with shoreline development will also be 219 vulnerable because erosion control structures limit shoreline movement. Nesting success will 220 be lower on beaches subject to repeated, tidal inundation. The nesting habitat on your refuge 221 is vulnerable to erosion and inundation. 222 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the loss of loggerhead sea-turtle nesting habitat 223 from sea-level rise and changes to storm frequencies to be a natural process. 224 Allow nesting success to decline on your refuge because these beaches are 225 susceptible to erosion and inundation. Focus on the global identification and 226 conservation of beaches that are more likely to withstand erosion and inundation 227 as sea levels rise and storm frequencies change locally. Reduce other stressors to 228 loggerhead sea-turtle populations, such as adult mortality related to commercial 229 fisheries. 230 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the lowered nesting success rates of loggerhead 231 sea turtles and the loss of nesting habitat on your refuge to be a threat to natural 232 diversity. Monitor nesting sites and collect eggs for rearing when weather events 233 threaten to inundate nests. Focus efforts on protecting existing shoreline within the 234 refuge from erosion and inundation with engineered structures. Use dredge spoil 235 to replenish eroded beaches. 236 Fish, M. R., I. M. Cote, J. A. Gill, A. P. Jones, S. Renshoff, and A. R. Watkinson. 2004. 237 Predicting the impact of sea-level rise on Caribbean sea-turtle nesting habitat. 238 Conservation Biology 19:482-491. 239 240 National Marine Fisheries Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2007. Loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) 5-year review: summary and review. 19│Magness et al 241 242 www.fws.gov/northflorida/SeaTurtles/2007-Reviews/2007-sea-turtle-ESA-reviews.htm 11. Q4: Local Extirpation—Single-species Scenario 243 Red fox distributions are shifting northward into areas historically occupied by arctic fox, due 244 to trends of warming climate. Arctic fox are unable to expand their range northward because 245 the Arctic Ocean is an obstacle. Arctic fox are competitively excluded from areas occupied 246 by red fox, so the range of Arctic fox is constricting. 247 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Treat the range expansion of red fox and the range 248 contraction of arctic fox as a natural process. Study the climatic limits of red fox 249 distributions and, based on future scenarios of climate change, identify the local 250 areas with the historic range of Arctic fox that will likely serve as refugia in the 251 future. Focus on efforts to conserve lands identified as likely arctic fox refugia. 252 Allow arctic fox populations to be extirpated from a large portion of their historic 253 range, while the range of red fox expands. 254 b. Reactionary Strategy: Treat the range expansion of red fox as a threat to natural 255 diversity because the arctic fox may be extirpated from a large portion of their 256 historic range. Engage in controlling red fox populations within the historic range 257 of arctic fox in order to maintain the historic ranges of both species. 258 Hersteinsson, P., and D. W. MacDonald. 1992. Interspecific competition and the 259 geographical distribution of red and arctic foxes Vulpes vulpes and Alopes lagopus. 260 Okios 64:505-515. 261 12. Q4: Local Extirpation—Ecosystem Scenario 262 Tree-line is moving upward in elevation and reducing the area of alpine habitat. Tree species 263 generally associated with lower elevations seem to be expanding their range because of 264 recent, mild climatic conditions. Further warming could allow some alpine habitat patches to 265 disappear through forestation. Alpine habitats support numerous alpine-dependent wildlife 20│Magness et al 266 species, such as American pika, mountain goats, and ptarmigan. 267 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Treat the loss of alpine habitat as a natural process. Allow 268 lower elevation alpine habitats to convert to forest with the reduction of overall 269 population levels of alpine-dependent species. Use translocation of individuals to 270 maintain gene flow between peaks that become isolated. 271 b. Reactionary Strategy: Treat the loss of alpine habitat as a loss of natural 272 diversity. Engage in management activities, such as mechanical removal, to 273 reduce the recruitment of trees into alpine habitats. Maintain the current area and 274 distribution of alpine habitats in order to sustain current population levels and 275 meta-population structure of alpine-dependent species. 276 13. Q5: Increased Extinction Risk—Endangered Species Scenario 277 The Hawaiian monk seal is an endangered species with a population of <1,500 individuals, 278 which occur primarily in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Most of these islands are low- 279 lying and are therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise that is predicted to occur with future 280 climate change. As much as 65% of island habitats are projected to be lost under a median 281 scenario of climate change. Sandy beaches adjacent to shallow waters are important sites for 282 parturition and nursing. Sea-level rise will decrease the size of these beaches, causing 283 crowding and competition for suitable habitat. In addition, the crowding of monk seals on the 284 remaining beaches has been suggested to facilitate shark predation on the pups. Loss of beach 285 habitat and increased pup mortality increases the probability of a population decline and the 286 global extinction of the species. 287 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the reduction of beach habitat and the resulting 288 changes to the monk seal population to be a natural process. Reduce the other 289 stressors to monk seal populations, such as human disturbance. Focus efforts on 290 facilitating natural shoreline movement and identifying and conserving lands that 21│Magness et al 291 may provide beach habitat in the future. Allow the population to decline to levels 292 that can be supported by the limited beach habitat even though the extinction risk 293 to the species will be higher than under current conditions. Use a population 294 viability analysis to identify the minimum population size needed to avoid 295 extinction and use techniques such as captive breeding if the population falls 296 below this number. 297 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the reduction of beach habitat and the resulting 298 changes to the monk seal population to be an unacceptable risk to maintaining 299 natural diversity. Work to maintain current population levels. Reduce other 300 stressors to monk seal populations due to human disturbance and engage in efforts 301 to reduce shark predation. If reducing other stressors does not fully compensate 302 for the loss of beach habitat, use dredge soil to replenish beaches after erosion 303 events and to build up areas subject to inundation. 304 Baker, J. D., C. L. Littnan, and D. W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the 305 terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern 306 Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 2:21-30. 307 14. Q5: Increased Extinction Risk—Single-species Scenario 308 Desert bighorn sheep are a subspecies of bighorn sheep. Hotter temperatures and a decrease 309 in precipitation in southeastern California have reduced the forage available for desert 310 bighorn sheep. Lack of forage has been a contributing factor in the extinction of 30 of the 80 311 known populations. Increased temperature and a lack of precipitation in the future will 312 significantly increase the probability of global extinction of this species. 313 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the reduction in forage due to climatic changes 314 to be a natural process. Reduce other stressors on desert sheep populations, such 315 as hunting pressure, predation rates, domestic sheep grazing, and other 22│Magness et al 316 disturbance. Allow population levels to decline to levels that can be supported by 317 available forage, even though the extinction risk to the subspecies will be higher 318 than under current conditions. Use a population viability analysis to identify the 319 minimum population size needed to avoid extinction and use techniques such as 320 captive breeding if the population falls below this number. 321 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the reduction of forage due to climatic changes 322 to be an unacceptable risk to maintaining natural diversity. Focus efforts on 323 maintaining current population levels. Begin a feeding program to ensure 324 adequate nutrition in years when forage is lacking. Research plant species that 325 could provide forage for desert bighorn sheep and survive the hotter dryer climatic 326 conditions. Begin a program to plant species that are identified by research 327 program. 328 Epps, C. W., D. R. McCullough, J. D. Wehausen, V. C. Bleigh, and J. L. Rechel. 2004. 329 Effects of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain 330 sheep in California. Conservation Biology 18:102-113. 331 15. Q5: Increased Extinction Risk— Ecosystem Scenario 332 Predicted levels of sea-level rise indicate complete inundation (within the next 50 yr) of an 333 island that includes several unique habitat types that support endemic species of amphibians, 334 arthropods and plants. 335 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the loss of the island and the species endemic to 336 the islands to be a natural process. Allow island to be inundated. Collect endemic 337 animal species to maintain in zoo collections and endemic plants for seed banks. 338 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the loss of the island to be an unacceptable loss 339 of natural diversity and unique natural habitat. Construct levee, dyke, or other 340 engineered structures to protect island. 23│Magness et al 341 16. Q6: Natural Diversity—Endangered Species Scenario 342 Climate-change models linked to vegetation models predict that biomes will shift into a new 343 spatial distribution in the future. If your refuge fell into an area expected to undergo a biome 344 shift, endangered species could colonize the refuge in the future, given climate change and no 345 management actions. In addition, it would also be possible for endangered species to be 346 extirpated from the refuge. If climate change occurred, which management response do you 347 think would be the most appropriate if an endangered species colonized and/or became 348 extirpated? 349 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider extirpation and colonization to be natural 350 processes. Allow new endangered species to migrate into your refuge and 351 endangered species historically present to become locally extinct through 352 migration and/or competition with new species. 353 b. Blended Strategy: Consider colonization to be a natural process that increases 354 natural diversity. Allow new endangered species to migrate into your refuge while 355 engaging in management activities to maintain endangered species that were 356 historically present. 357 c. Reactionary Strategy: Consider historic species assembles to represent the 358 natural diversity of the refuge. Maintain endangered species assemblages that 359 were historically present. In other words, do not allow endangered species to 360 colonize or become extirpated. 361 17. Q6: Natural Diversity—Single-species Scenario 362 Climate-change models linked to vegetation models predict that biomes will shift into a new 363 spatial distribution in the future. If your refuge fell into an area expected to undergo a biome 364 shift, species would likely colonize the refuge in the future, given climate change and no 365 management actions. Some species may also be extirpated from the refuge. If climate change 24│Magness et al 366 occurred, which management response do you think would be the most appropriate as species 367 colonized and/or became extirpated? 368 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider extirpation and colonization to be natural 369 processes. Allow new species to migrate into your refuge and species historically 370 present to become locally extinct through migration and/or competition with new 371 species. 372 b. Blended Strategy: Consider colonization to be a natural process that increases 373 natural diversity. Allow new species to migrate into your refuge while engaging in 374 management activities to maintain species that were historically present. 375 c. Reactionary Strategy: Consider historic species assembles to represent the 376 natural diversity of the refuge. Maintain historic species assembles. In other 377 words, do not allow species to colonize or become extinct. 378 18. Q6: Natural Diversity— Ecosystem Scenario 379 Climate-change models linked to vegetation models predict that biomes will shift into a new 380 spatial distribution in the future. If your refuge fell into an area expected to undergo a biome 381 shift, the ecosystem characteristics of the refuge would likely change in the future, given 382 climate change and no management actions. If climate change occurred, which management 383 response do you think would be the most appropriate as ecosystem characteristics changed? 384 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the ecosystem changes that occur with species 385 extirpation and colonization to be a natural process. Allow new species to migrate 386 into your refuge and species historically present to become locally extinct through 387 migration and/or competition with new species. 388 b. Blended Strategy: Consider colonization to be a natural process that increases 389 natural diversity. Allow new species to migrate into your refuge while engaging in 390 management activities to maintain species that were historically present. 25│Magness et al 391 c. Reactionary Strategy: Consider historic species assembles and ecosystem 392 characteristics to represent the natural diversity of the refuge. Maintain historic 393 species assembles and ecosystem characteristics. In other words, do not allow 394 species to colonize or become extinct. 395 19. Q7: Disturbance Regimes—Endangered Species Scenario 396 The northern spotted owl is a threatened species that is restricted to old-growth forests in the 397 Pacific Northwest. Warmer, drier summers produce more frequent and more extensive fires 398 in forest ecosystems, leading to concerns that the fire regime will shift outside the range of 399 natural variability with future climate change. This change to the natural fire regime will 400 reduce the extent and connectivity of late-successional stands and therefore reduce the 401 amount of habitat suitable for northern spotted owls. 402 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the fire regime associated with a warming 403 climate to be a new natural fire regime. Allow all naturally ignited fires to burn 404 whenever possible. Allow northern spotted owl habitat to be reduced and owl 405 populations to shift to levels that can be supported, given the new fire regime. 406 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the new fire frequency associated with a 407 warming climate to be outside of the natural fire regime. Use fire management 408 techniques, such as suppression and prescribed burning, to maintain historic 409 variability. Work to maintain a fire regime that will maintain current northern 410 spotted owl habitat and support the historic owl population sizes. 411 412 413 McKenzie, D., Z. Gedalof, D. Peterson, and P. Mote. 2003. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18:890-902. 20. Q7: Disturbance Regimes—Single-species Scenario 414 Brown creeper is a songbird associated with old-growth forests. In your area, warmer, drier 415 summers have produced more frequent and extensive fires in forest ecosystems, leading to 26│Magness et al 416 concerns that the fire regime will shift outside the range of natural variability with future 417 climate change. This change to the natural fire regime will reduce the extent of old-growth 418 stands and therefore reduce the amount of high-quality breeding habitat for brown creepers. 419 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the fire regime associated with a warming 420 climate to be a new natural fire regime. Allow all naturally ignited fires to burn 421 whenever possible. Allow brown creeper habitat to be reduced and brown creeper 422 breeding populations in your refuge to shift to levels that can be supported, given 423 the new fire regime. 424 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the new fire frequency associated with a 425 warming climate to be outside of the natural fire regime. Use fire management 426 techniques, such as suppression and prescribed burning, to maintain historic 427 variability. Work to maintain a fire regime that will maintain current brown 428 creeper breeding habitat and population sizes on your refuge. 429 Hejl, S. J., K. R. Newlon, M. E. McFadzen, J. S. Younf, and C. K. Ghalambor. 2002. Brownn 430 creeper (Certhia americana). Account 669 in A. Poole and F. Gills, editors. The birds 431 of North America. The Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and 432 The American Ornithologists' Union, Washington, D.C., USA. 433 21. Q7: Disturbance Regimes—Ecosystem Scenario 434 Hotter, longer summer seasons have increased the frequency and duration of wildfires, 435 leading to concerns that the fire disturbance regime is outside the range of historic variability. 436 Old-growth forest stands are becoming rare on the landscape and existing old-growth stands 437 may have an increased probability of experiencing a forest fire. The ecosystem in your refuge 438 seems to be shifting from a forest matrix of various stand ages to a landscape dominated by 439 early successional stands. Old-growth-dependent species are shifting distribution into the 440 remaining old-growth patches, but many patches are not large enough to sustain viable 27│Magness et al 441 populations of these species. However, species dependent on early successional forest are 442 increasing. 443 a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the fire frequency associated with a warming 444 climate to be a new natural fire regime. Allow all naturally ignited fires to burn 445 whenever possible. Ensure that the genetic diversity of species within old-growth 446 stands is not lost through translocation of representative individuals to similar 447 forest types in other areas when natural dispersal is not viable. Allow some forest- 448 dependent wildlife species that cannot be sustained in small patches to be 449 extirpated from the refuge. 450 b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the new fire frequency associated with a 451 warming climate to be outside of the natural fire regime. Use fire management 452 techniques, such as suppression and prescribed burning, to maintain historic 453 variability. Protect remaining old-growth stands. Maintain the suite of old-growth- 454 dependent wildlife species that occurred with the natural fire regime on your 455 refuge lands. 456 Chapin, F. S., T. V. Callaghan, Y. Bergeron, M. Fukuda, J. F. Johnstone, G. Juday, and S. A. 457 Zimov. 2004. Global change and the boreal forest: thresholds, shifting states or 458 gradual change? Ambio 33:361-365. 459 Field, C. B., L. D Mortsch, M. Brklacich, D. L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J. A. Patz, S. W. Running, 460 and M. J. Scott. 2007. North America. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and 461 vulnerability. Pages 617–652 in K. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van 462 der Linden, and C. E. Hanson, editors. Contribution of Working Group II to the Forth 463 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge 464 University Press, Cambridge, England, U.K. 465