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APPENDIX A: EXAMPLE QUESTIONNAIRE
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APPENDIX B: CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS USED IN 3 QUESTIONNARIES.
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SCENARIOS AND CITED LITERATURE LABELED BY QUESTION FOR
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SCENARIO (SEE FIG. 1) AND TARGET OF SCENARIO
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1. Q1: Range Expansion—Endangered Species Scenario
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The northern spotted owl is a threatened species that is restricted to old-growth forests in the
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Pacific Northwest. Northern spotted owls are displaced from occupied territories when barred
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owls are present. Barred owls were historically restricted to eastern North America, but have
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extended their range westward across Canada to British Columbia. From British Columbia,
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the barred owl range continued to expand south into the Pacific Northwest and north to
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southeast Alaska. Among other factors, climate change may have facilitated the range
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expansion of barred owls. Future climate change may cause barred owl populations to
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increase at the expense of the spotted owl population.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Barred owls should not be considered an invasive species
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in the historic range of the northern spotted owl because barred owls are
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expanding their range without human assistance. Allow barred owl populations to
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increase as spotted owl populations decline. Focus effort of reducing other
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stressors to northern spotted owl populations, such as instituting forest
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management practices that reduce old-growth habitat.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider barred owl to be an invasive species within the
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historic range of northern spotted owls. Engage in efforts such as trapping to
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control barred owl populations within the historic range of northern spotted owl.
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Kelly, E. G., E. D. Forsman, and R. G. Anthony. 2003. Are barred owls displacing spotted
owls? The Condor 105:45-53.
Peterson, A. T., and C. R. Robins. 2003.Using ecological-niche modeling to predict barred
owl invasions with implications for spotted owl conservation. Conservation Biology
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17:1161-1165.
2. Q1: Range Expansion—Single-species Scenario
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Red fox are moving northward into areas historically occupied by arctic fox, due to a
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warming climate. Arctic fox are unable to expand their range northward because the Arctic
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Ocean is an obstacle. Arctic fox are competitively excluded from areas occupied by red fox,
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so the arctic fox population is declining.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Red fox should not be considered an invasive species
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within the range of arctic fox because red fox are moving without human
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assistance. Allow red fox populations to increase as arctic fox populations decline.
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Study the climatic limits of red fox distributions and, based on future scenarios of
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climate change, identify the local areas within the historic range of Arctic fox that
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will likely serve as refugia in the future. Focus on efforts to conserve lands
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identified as likely arctic fox refugia.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Treat red fox as an invasive species within the historic
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range of arctic fox. Engage in efforts, such as trapping, to control red fox
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populations within the historic range of arctic fox in order to maintain historic
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arctic fox population levels.
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Hersteinsson, P., and D. W. MacDonald. 1992. Interspecific competition and the
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geographical distribution of red and arctic foxes Vulpes vulpes and Alopes lagopus.
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Okios 64:505-515.
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3. Q1: Range Expansion— Ecosystem Scenario
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Mountain pine beetles were historically distributed in lodgepole pine ecosystems of the
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western United States. Although lodgepole pines extend into Canada, mountain pine beetles
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have been limited from expanding northward by climate and limited from expanding
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eastward by the Great Plains. Recently, mild temperatures have allowed mountain pine
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beetles to expand northward into lodgepole pine and jack pine forests in British Columbia,
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causing a beetle outbreak that is unprecedented in size and located in an area with no
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previously observed beetle activity. Large numbers of beetles have also been documented
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dispersing through low-elevation mountain passes and have established populations east of
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the Continental Divide where mountain pine beetles have never occurred. Mountain pine
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beetles have the potential to move across the contiguous boreal jack pine forests of eastern
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North America all the way to the loblolly forests of the southeastern United States. The
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ecological consequences of mountain pine beetle range expansion are currently unknown, but
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have the potential to be devastating.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Mountain pine beetles should not be treated as an
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invasive species east of the Continental Divide because they are native and are
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moving without human assistance. Allow mountain pine beetles to move into
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areas where they naturally colonize. Monitor the effects of mountain pine beetles
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on the ecosystems east of the Continental Divide. Identify isolated stands in the
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East that can serve as forest refugia, given beetle outbreaks, and focus efforts on
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conserving these stands.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Mountain pine beetles should be treated as an invasive
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species east of the Continental Divide because they were not historically present
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there. Monitor outbreaks that occur east of the Continental Divide and control the
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spread of these outbreaks with pesticides, biological control, and forestry
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practices.
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Logan, J. 2006. Climate change induced invasions by native and exotic pests. Unpublished
manuscript at www.usu.edu/beetle/documetns/Logan06_abstract.pdf.
4. Q2: Translocation—Endangered Species Scenario
The Hawaiian monk seal is an endangered species with a population of <1,500 individuals
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that occur primarily in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Most of these islands are low-
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lying and are therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise that is predicted to occur with future
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climate change. As much as 65% of island habitats are projected to be lost under a median
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scenario of climate change. Sandy beaches adjacent to shallow waters are important sites for
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parturition and nursing. Sea-level rise will decrease the size of these beaches, causing
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crowding and competition for suitable habitat. In addition, the crowding of monk seals on the
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remaining beaches has been suggested to facilitate shark predation on the pups.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Identify habitats that could support monk seal
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populations in the future, given climate change. Conduct translocations of animals
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to these locations even if they occur outside the historic range for Hawaiian monk
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seals. On beaches where seals have historically occurred, allow the population to
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decline to levels that can be supported by the limited beach habitat as sea levels
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rise.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Focus efforts on protecting existing seal beaches from
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inundation and erosion with engineered structures. Use dredge spoil to replenish
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beaches after erosion events and to build up areas subject to inundation. Try to
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maintain historic population levels on beaches where seals currently occur by
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reducing other stressors to monk seal populations, such as disturbances from
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domestic animals and shark predation.
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Baker, J. D., C. L. Littnan, and D. W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the
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terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern
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Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 2:21-30.
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5. Q2: Translocation— Single-species Scenario
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Desert bighorn sheep are a subspecies of bighorn sheep. Hotter temperatures and a decrease
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in precipitation in southeastern California have reduced the forage available for desert
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bighorn sheep. Lack of forage has been a contributing factor in the extinction of 30 of the 80
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known populations. Increased temperature and a lack of precipitation in the future will
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significantly increase the probability of more population extinctions.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Identify alternative habitats that could provide suitable
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forage for desert bighorn sheep in the future as climate conditions change.
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Conduct translocations of animals to these locations even if they occur outside the
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historic range of desert bighorn sheep. In habitats where bighorn sheep have
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historically occurred, allow population to decline to levels that can be supported
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by available forage, given hotter, drier conditions.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Focus efforts on maintaining current population levels in
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habitat where sheep have historically occurred. Reduce other stressors on desert
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sheep populations, such as hunting pressure, predation rates, domestic sheep
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grazing, and other disturbance. Begin a feeding program to ensure adequate
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nutrition in years when forage is lacking.
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Epps, C. W., D. R. McCullough, J. D. Wehausen, V. C. Bleigh, and J. L. Rechel. 2004.
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Effects of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain
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sheep in California. Conservation Biology 18:102-113
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6. Q2: Translocation—Ecosystem Scenario
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Predicted levels of sea-level rise indicate complete inundation (within the next 50 yr) of an
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island that includes several unique habitat types that support endemic species of amphibians,
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arthropods, and plants.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow island to be inundated. Conduct translocations of
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endemic species to other islands or mainland areas with similar habitat, even
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though these areas are outside of the historic range for these species.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Construct levee, dyke, or other engineered structures to
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protect island.
7. Q3: Restoration Reference Point—Endangered Species Scenario
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The Hawaiian monk seal is an endangered species with a population of <1,500 individuals
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that occur primarily in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Most of these islands are low-
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lying and are therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise that is predicted to occur with future
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climate change. As much as 65% of island habitats are projected to be lost under a median
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scenario of climate change. Sandy beaches adjacent to shallow waters are important sites for
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parturition and nursing. Sea-level rise will decrease the size of these beaches, causing
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crowding and competition for suitable habitat. In addition, the crowding of monk seals on the
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remaining beaches has been suggested to facilitate shark predation on the pups. Loss of beach
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habitat and increased pup mortality increases the probability of a population decline and the
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global extinction of the species.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow the population to shift to levels that can be
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supported by the limited beach habitat available in the future. Reduce other
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stressors to the monk seal population that occur due to human disturbance. Use a
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population-viability analysis to identify the minimum population size needed to
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avoid extinction. If the limited beach habitat results in a population size below the
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population minimum, use techniques such as captive breeding.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Work to maintain current population levels while trying to
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restore population numbers to historic levels. Reduce other stressors to monk seal
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populations due to human disturbance and engage in efforts to reduce shark
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predation. If reducing other stressors does not fully compensate for the loss of
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beach habitat, use dredge soil to replenish beaches after erosion events and to
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build up areas subject to inundation.
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Baker, J. D., C. L. Littnan, and D. W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the
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terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern
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Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 2:21-30.
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8. Q3: Restoration Reference Point—Single-species Scenario
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The wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region provide important breeding habitat for
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canvasback ducks. Temperature and rainfall affect wetland condition. Wetland condition
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affects the size of the breeding population in a given area and the reproductive success of
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canvasback. Climate-change projections predict that warming temperatures and changing
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precipitation patterns will result in fewer wetlands and greater annual variability in surface
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water. These changes are linked to lowered reproductive success, due to factors such as lower
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nesting success, smaller clutch sizes, and lower brood survival. Your refuge in the prairie
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pothole region has been subject to drought conditions for several years, leading to a reduction
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in high-quality wetland habitat and reduced canvasback numbers.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow wetland conditions within your refuge to change
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with the changing climate. Allow the canvasback population within the refuge
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boundary to decline to levels that can be supported by wetland conditions in the
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future. Change current refuge focus from waterfowl management to prairie
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restoration.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: At a minimum, work to maintain the current population
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levels of canvasback while trying to restore the population to historic levels.
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Maintain canvasback habitat with engineered structures to control water levels and
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by pumping groundwater into managed wetlands. Engage in predator control to
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compensate for the lowered reproductive success caused by wetland conditions.
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Inkley, D. B., M. G. Anderson, A. R. Blaustein, V. R. Burkett, B. Felzer, B. Griffith, J. Price,
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and T. L. Root. 2004. Global climate change and wildlife in North America. The
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Wildlife Society Technical Review 04-2, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
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9. Q3: Restoration Reference Point—Ecosystem Scenario
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Approximately one-third of coastal marshland has been lost since the 1930s on your refuge.
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Sea-level rise inundates coastal marshlands and sea levels are expected to continue to rise
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with climate change. Nutria, an exotic rodent, also contributes to the loss of coastal
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marshland through overgrazing. Nutria populations are limited by harsh winter conditions
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and may increase in numbers with a warming climate. The area of coastal marshland within
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your refuge is decreasing.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Allow the current area of coastal marshland within your
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refuge boundary to convert to deeper water habitat. Shift management focus on
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refuge from dabbling ducks to diving ducks. Engage in efforts to identify and
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conserve lands that will be coastal marshland in the future. Work to facilitate the
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movement of coastal marshland inland across refuge lands by raising roadbeds,
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even if marshland in the future will occur outside of the refuge boundary.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: At a minimum, work to maintain the current area of
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coastal marshland habitat in your refuge boundaries while trying to restore coastal
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marshland to historic levels. Focus efforts on reducing nutria populations to
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minimize nutria contribution to marshland loss. Work to restore wetlands through
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reducing saltwater inundation with engineered structures, the beneficial use of
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dredge spoil, supplemental planting efforts, and prescribed fire.
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10. Q4: Local Extirpation—Endangered Species Scenario
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Loggerhead sea turtles are an endangered species with major nesting grounds in the United
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States from North Carolina to southwest Florida and minor nesting grounds occurring
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westward to Texas and northward to Virginia. Globally, 3 populations of loggerhead turtles
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exist, with some nesting activity on every continent. Climate change is expected to affect
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loggerhead sea-turtle nesting habitat via rising sea levels due to factors such as the thermal
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expansion of warming oceans and glacial melt. Erosion of nesting habitat will also be
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accelerated by increases in the frequency of storm events. Narrow, low-elevation beaches are
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the most susceptible to inundation. Beaches with shoreline development will also be
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vulnerable because erosion control structures limit shoreline movement. Nesting success will
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be lower on beaches subject to repeated, tidal inundation. The nesting habitat on your refuge
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is vulnerable to erosion and inundation.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the loss of loggerhead sea-turtle nesting habitat
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from sea-level rise and changes to storm frequencies to be a natural process.
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Allow nesting success to decline on your refuge because these beaches are
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susceptible to erosion and inundation. Focus on the global identification and
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conservation of beaches that are more likely to withstand erosion and inundation
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as sea levels rise and storm frequencies change locally. Reduce other stressors to
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loggerhead sea-turtle populations, such as adult mortality related to commercial
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fisheries.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the lowered nesting success rates of loggerhead
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sea turtles and the loss of nesting habitat on your refuge to be a threat to natural
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diversity. Monitor nesting sites and collect eggs for rearing when weather events
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threaten to inundate nests. Focus efforts on protecting existing shoreline within the
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refuge from erosion and inundation with engineered structures. Use dredge spoil
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to replenish eroded beaches.
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Fish, M. R., I. M. Cote, J. A. Gill, A. P. Jones, S. Renshoff, and A. R. Watkinson. 2004.
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Predicting the impact of sea-level rise on Caribbean sea-turtle nesting habitat.
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Conservation Biology 19:482-491.
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National Marine Fisheries Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2007. Loggerhead sea
turtle (Caretta caretta) 5-year review: summary and review.
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www.fws.gov/northflorida/SeaTurtles/2007-Reviews/2007-sea-turtle-ESA-reviews.htm
11. Q4: Local Extirpation—Single-species Scenario
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Red fox distributions are shifting northward into areas historically occupied by arctic fox, due
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to trends of warming climate. Arctic fox are unable to expand their range northward because
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the Arctic Ocean is an obstacle. Arctic fox are competitively excluded from areas occupied
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by red fox, so the range of Arctic fox is constricting.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Treat the range expansion of red fox and the range
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contraction of arctic fox as a natural process. Study the climatic limits of red fox
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distributions and, based on future scenarios of climate change, identify the local
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areas with the historic range of Arctic fox that will likely serve as refugia in the
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future. Focus on efforts to conserve lands identified as likely arctic fox refugia.
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Allow arctic fox populations to be extirpated from a large portion of their historic
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range, while the range of red fox expands.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Treat the range expansion of red fox as a threat to natural
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diversity because the arctic fox may be extirpated from a large portion of their
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historic range. Engage in controlling red fox populations within the historic range
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of arctic fox in order to maintain the historic ranges of both species.
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Hersteinsson, P., and D. W. MacDonald. 1992. Interspecific competition and the
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geographical distribution of red and arctic foxes Vulpes vulpes and Alopes lagopus.
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Okios 64:505-515.
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12. Q4: Local Extirpation—Ecosystem Scenario
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Tree-line is moving upward in elevation and reducing the area of alpine habitat. Tree species
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generally associated with lower elevations seem to be expanding their range because of
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recent, mild climatic conditions. Further warming could allow some alpine habitat patches to
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disappear through forestation. Alpine habitats support numerous alpine-dependent wildlife
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species, such as American pika, mountain goats, and ptarmigan.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Treat the loss of alpine habitat as a natural process. Allow
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lower elevation alpine habitats to convert to forest with the reduction of overall
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population levels of alpine-dependent species. Use translocation of individuals to
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maintain gene flow between peaks that become isolated.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Treat the loss of alpine habitat as a loss of natural
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diversity. Engage in management activities, such as mechanical removal, to
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reduce the recruitment of trees into alpine habitats. Maintain the current area and
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distribution of alpine habitats in order to sustain current population levels and
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meta-population structure of alpine-dependent species.
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13. Q5: Increased Extinction Risk—Endangered Species Scenario
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The Hawaiian monk seal is an endangered species with a population of <1,500 individuals,
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which occur primarily in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Most of these islands are low-
279
lying and are therefore vulnerable to sea-level rise that is predicted to occur with future
280
climate change. As much as 65% of island habitats are projected to be lost under a median
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scenario of climate change. Sandy beaches adjacent to shallow waters are important sites for
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parturition and nursing. Sea-level rise will decrease the size of these beaches, causing
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crowding and competition for suitable habitat. In addition, the crowding of monk seals on the
284
remaining beaches has been suggested to facilitate shark predation on the pups. Loss of beach
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habitat and increased pup mortality increases the probability of a population decline and the
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global extinction of the species.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the reduction of beach habitat and the resulting
288
changes to the monk seal population to be a natural process. Reduce the other
289
stressors to monk seal populations, such as human disturbance. Focus efforts on
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facilitating natural shoreline movement and identifying and conserving lands that
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may provide beach habitat in the future. Allow the population to decline to levels
292
that can be supported by the limited beach habitat even though the extinction risk
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to the species will be higher than under current conditions. Use a population
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viability analysis to identify the minimum population size needed to avoid
295
extinction and use techniques such as captive breeding if the population falls
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below this number.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the reduction of beach habitat and the resulting
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changes to the monk seal population to be an unacceptable risk to maintaining
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natural diversity. Work to maintain current population levels. Reduce other
300
stressors to monk seal populations due to human disturbance and engage in efforts
301
to reduce shark predation. If reducing other stressors does not fully compensate
302
for the loss of beach habitat, use dredge soil to replenish beaches after erosion
303
events and to build up areas subject to inundation.
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Baker, J. D., C. L. Littnan, and D. W. Johnston. 2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the
305
terrestrial habitats of endangered and endemic megafauna in the Northwestern
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Hawaiian Islands. Endangered Species Research 2:21-30.
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14. Q5: Increased Extinction Risk—Single-species Scenario
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Desert bighorn sheep are a subspecies of bighorn sheep. Hotter temperatures and a decrease
309
in precipitation in southeastern California have reduced the forage available for desert
310
bighorn sheep. Lack of forage has been a contributing factor in the extinction of 30 of the 80
311
known populations. Increased temperature and a lack of precipitation in the future will
312
significantly increase the probability of global extinction of this species.
313
a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the reduction in forage due to climatic changes
314
to be a natural process. Reduce other stressors on desert sheep populations, such
315
as hunting pressure, predation rates, domestic sheep grazing, and other
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disturbance. Allow population levels to decline to levels that can be supported by
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available forage, even though the extinction risk to the subspecies will be higher
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than under current conditions. Use a population viability analysis to identify the
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minimum population size needed to avoid extinction and use techniques such as
320
captive breeding if the population falls below this number.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the reduction of forage due to climatic changes
322
to be an unacceptable risk to maintaining natural diversity. Focus efforts on
323
maintaining current population levels. Begin a feeding program to ensure
324
adequate nutrition in years when forage is lacking. Research plant species that
325
could provide forage for desert bighorn sheep and survive the hotter dryer climatic
326
conditions. Begin a program to plant species that are identified by research
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program.
328
Epps, C. W., D. R. McCullough, J. D. Wehausen, V. C. Bleigh, and J. L. Rechel. 2004.
329
Effects of climate change on population persistence of desert-dwelling mountain
330
sheep in California. Conservation Biology 18:102-113.
331
15. Q5: Increased Extinction Risk— Ecosystem Scenario
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Predicted levels of sea-level rise indicate complete inundation (within the next 50 yr) of an
333
island that includes several unique habitat types that support endemic species of amphibians,
334
arthropods and plants.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the loss of the island and the species endemic to
336
the islands to be a natural process. Allow island to be inundated. Collect endemic
337
animal species to maintain in zoo collections and endemic plants for seed banks.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the loss of the island to be an unacceptable loss
339
of natural diversity and unique natural habitat. Construct levee, dyke, or other
340
engineered structures to protect island.
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16. Q6: Natural Diversity—Endangered Species Scenario
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Climate-change models linked to vegetation models predict that biomes will shift into a new
343
spatial distribution in the future. If your refuge fell into an area expected to undergo a biome
344
shift, endangered species could colonize the refuge in the future, given climate change and no
345
management actions. In addition, it would also be possible for endangered species to be
346
extirpated from the refuge. If climate change occurred, which management response do you
347
think would be the most appropriate if an endangered species colonized and/or became
348
extirpated?
349
a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider extirpation and colonization to be natural
350
processes. Allow new endangered species to migrate into your refuge and
351
endangered species historically present to become locally extinct through
352
migration and/or competition with new species.
353
b. Blended Strategy: Consider colonization to be a natural process that increases
354
natural diversity. Allow new endangered species to migrate into your refuge while
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engaging in management activities to maintain endangered species that were
356
historically present.
357
c. Reactionary Strategy: Consider historic species assembles to represent the
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natural diversity of the refuge. Maintain endangered species assemblages that
359
were historically present. In other words, do not allow endangered species to
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colonize or become extirpated.
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17. Q6: Natural Diversity—Single-species Scenario
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Climate-change models linked to vegetation models predict that biomes will shift into a new
363
spatial distribution in the future. If your refuge fell into an area expected to undergo a biome
364
shift, species would likely colonize the refuge in the future, given climate change and no
365
management actions. Some species may also be extirpated from the refuge. If climate change
24│Magness et al
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occurred, which management response do you think would be the most appropriate as species
367
colonized and/or became extirpated?
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider extirpation and colonization to be natural
369
processes. Allow new species to migrate into your refuge and species historically
370
present to become locally extinct through migration and/or competition with new
371
species.
372
b. Blended Strategy: Consider colonization to be a natural process that increases
373
natural diversity. Allow new species to migrate into your refuge while engaging in
374
management activities to maintain species that were historically present.
375
c. Reactionary Strategy: Consider historic species assembles to represent the
376
natural diversity of the refuge. Maintain historic species assembles. In other
377
words, do not allow species to colonize or become extinct.
378
18. Q6: Natural Diversity— Ecosystem Scenario
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Climate-change models linked to vegetation models predict that biomes will shift into a new
380
spatial distribution in the future. If your refuge fell into an area expected to undergo a biome
381
shift, the ecosystem characteristics of the refuge would likely change in the future, given
382
climate change and no management actions. If climate change occurred, which management
383
response do you think would be the most appropriate as ecosystem characteristics changed?
384
a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the ecosystem changes that occur with species
385
extirpation and colonization to be a natural process. Allow new species to migrate
386
into your refuge and species historically present to become locally extinct through
387
migration and/or competition with new species.
388
b. Blended Strategy: Consider colonization to be a natural process that increases
389
natural diversity. Allow new species to migrate into your refuge while engaging in
390
management activities to maintain species that were historically present.
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c. Reactionary Strategy: Consider historic species assembles and ecosystem
392
characteristics to represent the natural diversity of the refuge. Maintain historic
393
species assembles and ecosystem characteristics. In other words, do not allow
394
species to colonize or become extinct.
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19. Q7: Disturbance Regimes—Endangered Species Scenario
396
The northern spotted owl is a threatened species that is restricted to old-growth forests in the
397
Pacific Northwest. Warmer, drier summers produce more frequent and more extensive fires
398
in forest ecosystems, leading to concerns that the fire regime will shift outside the range of
399
natural variability with future climate change. This change to the natural fire regime will
400
reduce the extent and connectivity of late-successional stands and therefore reduce the
401
amount of habitat suitable for northern spotted owls.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the fire regime associated with a warming
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climate to be a new natural fire regime. Allow all naturally ignited fires to burn
404
whenever possible. Allow northern spotted owl habitat to be reduced and owl
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populations to shift to levels that can be supported, given the new fire regime.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the new fire frequency associated with a
407
warming climate to be outside of the natural fire regime. Use fire management
408
techniques, such as suppression and prescribed burning, to maintain historic
409
variability. Work to maintain a fire regime that will maintain current northern
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spotted owl habitat and support the historic owl population sizes.
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412
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McKenzie, D., Z. Gedalof, D. Peterson, and P. Mote. 2003. Climatic change, wildfire, and
conservation. Conservation Biology 18:890-902.
20. Q7: Disturbance Regimes—Single-species Scenario
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Brown creeper is a songbird associated with old-growth forests. In your area, warmer, drier
415
summers have produced more frequent and extensive fires in forest ecosystems, leading to
26│Magness et al
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concerns that the fire regime will shift outside the range of natural variability with future
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climate change. This change to the natural fire regime will reduce the extent of old-growth
418
stands and therefore reduce the amount of high-quality breeding habitat for brown creepers.
419
a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the fire regime associated with a warming
420
climate to be a new natural fire regime. Allow all naturally ignited fires to burn
421
whenever possible. Allow brown creeper habitat to be reduced and brown creeper
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breeding populations in your refuge to shift to levels that can be supported, given
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the new fire regime.
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b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the new fire frequency associated with a
425
warming climate to be outside of the natural fire regime. Use fire management
426
techniques, such as suppression and prescribed burning, to maintain historic
427
variability. Work to maintain a fire regime that will maintain current brown
428
creeper breeding habitat and population sizes on your refuge.
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Hejl, S. J., K. R. Newlon, M. E. McFadzen, J. S. Younf, and C. K. Ghalambor. 2002. Brownn
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creeper (Certhia americana). Account 669 in A. Poole and F. Gills, editors. The birds
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of North America. The Academy of Natural Sciences, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and
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The American Ornithologists' Union, Washington, D.C., USA.
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21. Q7: Disturbance Regimes—Ecosystem Scenario
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Hotter, longer summer seasons have increased the frequency and duration of wildfires,
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leading to concerns that the fire disturbance regime is outside the range of historic variability.
436
Old-growth forest stands are becoming rare on the landscape and existing old-growth stands
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may have an increased probability of experiencing a forest fire. The ecosystem in your refuge
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seems to be shifting from a forest matrix of various stand ages to a landscape dominated by
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early successional stands. Old-growth-dependent species are shifting distribution into the
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remaining old-growth patches, but many patches are not large enough to sustain viable
27│Magness et al
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populations of these species. However, species dependent on early successional forest are
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increasing.
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a. Anticipatory Strategy: Consider the fire frequency associated with a warming
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climate to be a new natural fire regime. Allow all naturally ignited fires to burn
445
whenever possible. Ensure that the genetic diversity of species within old-growth
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stands is not lost through translocation of representative individuals to similar
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forest types in other areas when natural dispersal is not viable. Allow some forest-
448
dependent wildlife species that cannot be sustained in small patches to be
449
extirpated from the refuge.
450
b. Reactionary Strategy: Consider the new fire frequency associated with a
451
warming climate to be outside of the natural fire regime. Use fire management
452
techniques, such as suppression and prescribed burning, to maintain historic
453
variability. Protect remaining old-growth stands. Maintain the suite of old-growth-
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dependent wildlife species that occurred with the natural fire regime on your
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refuge lands.
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Chapin, F. S., T. V. Callaghan, Y. Bergeron, M. Fukuda, J. F. Johnstone, G. Juday, and S. A.
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Zimov. 2004. Global change and the boreal forest: thresholds, shifting states or
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gradual change? Ambio 33:361-365.
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Field, C. B., L. D Mortsch, M. Brklacich, D. L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J. A. Patz, S. W. Running,
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and M. J. Scott. 2007. North America. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and
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vulnerability. Pages 617–652 in K. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van
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der Linden, and C. E. Hanson, editors. Contribution of Working Group II to the Forth
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Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
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University Press, Cambridge, England, U.K.
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