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Environment, Climate Change and Sustainable Development Economics 3510: African Economic Development, Week Six Outline of Presentation: Reasons for more environmental focus in Africa Air pollution measurement and trends Water quality and availability Deforestation indicators and trends Environmental analysis: four tools to use Applying these tools: water and the Volta Dam; deforestation in Ethiopia; Nigeria’s wetlands • Global climate change and Africa • Mitigation and adaptation strategies • • • • • • 1:Why more environmental focus? 1) Growing world focus (eg. Sulphor dioxide) 2) Africa seen as fragile land area 3) UN and World Bank changes such as UNEP 4) Increasing environment threats in Africa 2: Air pollution measurement and trends • Urban air pollution measured in main cities • Measured in micrograms (over 10 microns) per cubic meter • WHO safe level is 20 • Over that can bring respiratory and heart disease, lung cancer • Carbon emissions also measured • Millions of metric tons per country released • These are greenhouse gases (GHGs) adding to global warming What do measurements show? Main points from data • • • • • • • • African urban air pollution high Compare to East Asia In all countries above WHO levels Note Botswana, Nigeria, Senegal very high South Africa has the best record But it contributes most carbon emissions Africa’s emissions small overall but growing Some countries increasing very fast Some city data alarming • WHO: most European and US cities under 20 • Urban China level 82 • Dakar in 2011 at 179 • Mauritius (Port Louis) at 131 – why? • Johannesburg at 98 despite low average • Accra at 98 OECD Study (Roy, 2016) • Shows deaths from household air pollution in Africa up from 396,094 in 1990 to 466,079 in 2013 • Deaths from ambient pollution up from 181,291 to 246,403 • Rate of change accelerating from 5.3% to 8.3% • Coincides with other environmental and health dangers bringing death, such as unsafe water, unsafe sanitation, child malnutrition • Air pollution deaths rising while other rates down somewhat • Nigeria (100,000+,) Ethiopia (79,000,) DRC (68,000) 3: Water & sanitation • OECD chart shows unsafe water and sanitation problems even greater, though declining somewhat • Partly reflects water availability constraints (11 of 14 cities with serious regular water shortages) • Little improvement in urban sanitation 1990-2015 • Though has been better urban water access • Sanitation declines in Nigeria (38% to 33%,) Sudan (52% to 44%,) Eritrea (59% to 45%) • Large gains in Mauritania (29 to 58%,) Tanzania (6 to 31%,) Niger (19 to 38%,) Benin (18 to 36%) • Urban water access decline in Sudan (86 to 66%) Key water pollution points • Industrial pollution growing in 8 of 14 countries, especially where sanitation is low • Food/beverage industry main problems, also textiles, chemicals in Cameroon and Senegal, wood industry in Ghana • Pollution shows up in major interconnected way in various examples: Tamale food supply in northern Ghana Port Harcourt water supply in Nigeria Kampala disease results in Uganda Akaki river in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Two examples Source: Green Hills, Blue Cities, UNEP, 2011 4: Deforestation Why it matters Trends in Africa – rate of decline 0.48% annually Related to pressures to grow agriculture Also logging – some of it illegal (Cameroon, Burundi) Role of fuel wood important Tied to population increase, also to reliance on this source for cooking et al (over 95% of Uganda population uses fuel-wood as main energy source) • Is this too alarmist? Can fuel wood be sourced sustainably? • • • • • • Key points • Reforestation common but declines in Africa • 12 of 24 over 1% yearly • 6 of 24 over 2% • 18 of 24 with rates rising • Nigeria and Togo very high – Sudan and Niger with big improvements • Picture of rainforest in Ghana (where logging has been extensive) Key points • Deforestation most common concern (20 nations) • Water and/or air pollution in 17 • The table highlights 3 countries with five areas of major concern • Also 2 countries with four areas • Plus are countries with concentrated threats like Senegal with its high Dakar air pollution – South Africa with its high Johannesburg pollution – Uganda with its serious Kampala water pollution • Review shows environmental concerns major in Africa – how should we approach them? 5: Environmental analysis tools • Four key concepts to use from economics a. Externalities b. Public goods c. Common property resources d. Social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) a) Externalities • Costs (or benefits) to society or households that do not have to be paid for by those undertaking actions • Such as dumping waste into Akaki River in Addis • How measure such costs? Willingness to Pay surveys Indirect market indicators Direct damages estimates • How can firms be brought to internalize costs? Tax levies (eg. on coal) Cap and trade systems Court actions (local and international) But these depend on property rights while many environmental benefits are “public goods” b) Public goods • As noted earlier, nobody can be excluded from “consuming” public goods (and consuming them does not use them up, preventing access by others) • Clean air and safe water classic public goods • But that means no “market” for such goods • WTP surveys undercut by “free rider” problem • Direct damages do not measure discomfort • So underestimate of social costs • Though African unhappiness with water/sanitation services from government show in surveys c) Common property resources • “Open access” common property resources: users can enter freely to collect/sell outputs • Such as fuel wood, logs from forests, fish from waters • Private gains for each additional user positive but social costs for all users from resource degradation • Note “magumba” fishery in Mozambique • Not all common property resources “open access” • Examples of community management in fish and forestry (see supplementary reading) • But external pressures can break this down (as in Wenchi, Ghana) d) Social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) • This tool can encompass externalities, include value measures for public goods and examine long-term effects of common-property resources • Can evaluate options, bring socially-based choices • Private cost-benefit analysis looks at private values year-by-year over project’s life, discounts to present • SCBA does the same, using social valuations • Discount value also likely different • Look at simple example from text NPV = Σ [ (Bt - Ct ) / (1 + i )t ] Implementing SCBA • Example shows how SCBA leads to different choice • Similar distinctions in Hardisty example in text • But how can policy makers see SCBA reflected in private company decisions? • Environmental assessment requirement for projects • Regulation of emissions • Tax policy – coal tax of $200 per year in CBA would lead to negative net present value of -$179 • Lets see how SCBA and other tools help us to understand various African cases 6) Cases: Volta Dam, Ghana • Case with environment externalities ignored • No SCBA used • Plan began pre-1940 • Carried on by Nkrumah • Make electricity, turn bauxite into aluminum • First companies backed out, replaced in bauxite-import plan • Began in 1965 Major environmental costs a. Changed river flow brings disease – schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, malaria b. Changed flooding on south Volta hurts farming c. Fishing losses, deforestation in delta area d. Land loss, deforestation, erosion around Lake e. Poor handling of population displacement f. Open-access common property problems of resource degradation in Lake Volta fisheries • Ghana having to deal with many of these problems now with remedial measures Cases: Baro-Akobo basin, Ethiopia • Deforestation is issue • High rate in country • Common property resources historically – with community control • Changed by 1975 Land Reform under the Derg • “Open access” result • 1.6% loss in area yearly over 1985-2010 – 28,916 ha. annually (Sutcliffe) SCBA to assess losses • Benefits: 1400 kg./hectare of maize @ $153/tonne -$215.60/hectare o Less crop damage from animals -- $7.40/ha o Soil sediment runoffs to Sudan o Total $223.11/ha x 28,916 ha -- $6.4 million • • • • • • Costs: Sustainable wood output -- $1210/ha Non-wood products (honey, coffee) $17.77/ha CO2 absorption 49.5 tonnes/ha $153.75/ha Soil erosion costs, biodiversity losses too Total $1693.22/ha or $48.9 million Net social losses $42.5 million yearly Ethiopia working hard on participatory forest management initiatives to replace such losses Cases: Kafue Flats, Zambia • Wetlands area, with open access fisheries • 250 x 60 km. between gorge and dam • Activities run by local community rules for fishing, hunting, cattle • Changed with colonialism, again after independence Changing pressures • Sugar cane in east, colonial hunting ban • New dams raise access • Job pressures, urban poverty bring migrants • Pushed by women fish traders’ high demand • Open-access common property system cuts fish catches – 10 to 6 to 3 metric tonnes Case: Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, Nigeria • Provides agricultural, fishing, forestry income, groundwater recharge • But upstream projects threaten such benefits via irrigation diversion • Cannot just look at net benefits of such projects, must compare them to social costs to those in wetlands say Barbier et al Citation: Olalekan EI, Abimbola LM, Saheed M, Damilola OA (2014) Wetland Resources of Nigeria: Case Study of the Hadejia-Nguru W Poult Fish Wildl Sci 2: 123. doi:10.4172/2375-446X.1000123 Figure 2: Map showing the location of the Hadejia-Nguru Wetland in Nigeria [11]. e Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands e Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands is a wide expanse of wetlands situated in the northeast Nigeria, the location lie sudanosahelian zone, which is the zone between the Sudanian in the south and the Sahel in the North. e wetland is found state, located in the northern part of Nigeria, which include th lake (Figure 2) [11]. According to [7], the Nguru Lake and th Channel complex, which is a section of the Hadejia Nguru We located on the Latitude 10°22’N and Longitude 12°46’E. e ca area of the wetlands covers an area of about 3,500 km2, which two rivers, the Hadejia and the Jama’are, which ows and c into the Chad Lake. e wetlands are notably known for rech replenishment of underground water in the Komadugu-Yobe is an ecological and economical rich habitat for biodiversity o SCBA for wetlands • Kano irrigation project net benefit 233 Naira/ha • Compare to net benefits of wetlands: 838 Naira/ha from crops, especially cowpeas and rice; 300 Naira/ha from fishing; 139 Naira/ha from fuelwood • All calculated on 50 year basis at 8% discount rate • Plus are social benefits of wetlands harder to put numbers to, such as groundwater sourcing in dry area, grazing for Fulani herds during dry season • Can work out net benefits per 1000 cu. M. of water used – 0.3 Naira for Kano project vs. 565 for wetland • Very high opportunity cost for water loss to project Questions from cases • How useful are the four economic tools? • Can these tools be put into practice? • What is the most important conclusion you draw from the four cases? • Move on from this review of existing environmental concerns to emerging threats from global climate change 7) Global climate change • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) set up in 1988 • Under UNEP and World Meteorological Organization • 195 member countries – 5 reports, latest 2014 • Scientific approach, noting areas where high confidence in findings, others less clear-cut • Stress urgency in latest report, importance of action for Africa • Backdrop to 2015 Paris Climate Conference and its conclusions and draft treaty Key 2014 IPCC findings • Warmest 30 yrs. in 800 with Arctic ice melt, rise in sea levels and acidity • Anthropogenic factors likely cause half of this, via GHG rise (2.2% yrly.) • Damage to crop levels, coral reefs (and fish,) severe climate events • Continuity means 2.20 temperature rise, sea level gain .48 m by 2100 • Flood, food, disease and wildfire damage to humans to be serious • Adaptation is change to lessen-avoid this • Mitigation is reducing emissions as a counter • IPCC stresses both • But adaptation is hard for poorer households to carry out it says, so must be mitigation too Main Africa points • 3 broad weather systems interact • Inter-tropical Convergence Zone, West African Monsoon and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • Make effects stronger • Special IPCC study led by Senegal,Namibia scientists, many others IPCC Africa Predictions • Higher temperature rise than elsewhere to come, more rainfall stress (lower in south, higher in east) • Will shift biomes, increase deserts • High risks of crop decreases (millet/sorghum in west, maize in south) – to bring child malnutrition • Livestock losses likely from drought • Could be 25% rise in malaria as spreads to highlands • High risk to coral, fish stocks (inland, too) • 40 cm. sea rise would hit 10 million in 4 countries • Refugee flows, perhaps conflict, likely to result Implications • Climate pressures to hurt poor, more gender gaps • Climate change makes environment issues even more crucial • Africa’s inequity clear • Not much help from global climate aid (like Clean Technology Fund, REDD+, “fast start”) • So Africa must act on own as with green energy initiatives (in picture) 8) Conclusions • Environment has become major concern as air pollution worsens, water/sanitation pressures impact and deforestation interacts with climate change • Looked at four tools for analysis • Saw their value in case studies in four countries • Then examined dynamic of global climate change • Clearly are powerful threats emerging • Hard for Africa to adapt to these, mitigation needs world level action, given role of GHGs • 2015 Paris Convention drafted treaty, but will it be respected as the world’s political leaders change? • Green Belt Movement shows community role