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Back to Basics, 2015 POPULATION HEALTH: Infectious Diseases and Outbreak Investigation Dr. Nicholas Birkett School of Epidemiology, Public Health and Preventive Medicine 03/2015 1 78-5 Outbreak Management (1) Key Objectives • Know the defining characteristics of an outbreak and how to recognize one when it occurs. • Demonstrate essential skills involved in controlling an outbreak and its impact on the public, in collaboration with public health authorities as appropriate. 03/2015 2 78-5 Outbreak Management (2) Enabling Objectives • Define an outbreak – An excessive number of cases beyond that usually expected. • Describe and understand the main steps in outbreak management and prevention. • Demonstrate skills in effective outbreak management including infection control when the outbreak is due to an infectious agent. 03/2015 3 78-5 Outbreak Management (3) Enabling Objectives (cont) • Describe the different types of infection control practices and justify which type is most appropriately implemented for different outbreak conditions. • Demonstrate effective communication skills with patients and the community as a whole. • Describe appropriate approaches to prevent or reduce the risk of the outbreak recurring. 03/2015 4 78-5 Outbreak Management (4) Enabling Objectives (cont) • Understand key features of communicable diseases • Understand communicable disease epidemiology 03/2015 5 78-5 Outbreak Management (5) • Physicians are crucial participants in the control of outbreaks of disease. • Must be able to • • • • Diagnose cases Recognize outbreaks Report these to public health authorities Work with authorities to limit the spread of the outbreak. • Common example • Assist in the control of an outbreak of influenza or diarrhoea in a nursing home 03/2015 6 Infectious Disease Summary • Terminology • Nature of diseases • Outbreaks/epidemics – Identification – Methods of control 03/2015 7 03/2015 8 Infections: Sources and agents (1) Foodborne • Botulism • Clostridium perfringens • Hepatitis A • Norovirus • Salmonellosis • Shigellosis • Staphylococcal disease • Trichinosis Water & Foodborne • Amebiasis • Cholera • Giardiasis • Legionellosis • E coli 03/2015 Person-to-person spread • Aseptic meningitis • Hepatitis B and C • Respiratory Infections (e.g., influenza) • Herpes simplex • Streptococcal disease • Tuberculosis • Leprosy 9 Infections: Sources and agents (2) Vaccine preventable • Chickenpox • Diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus • Hepatitis A and B • HPV • Influenza • Measles, mumps, rubella • Meningococcal • Pneumococcal • Poliomyelitis Sexually Transmitted • HIV/AIDS • Gonorrhea • Syphilis • Chlamydia trachomatis 03/2015 Arthropod Borne • Encephalitis (West Nile) • Lyme Disease • Malaria • Plague • Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever Zoonotic • Psittacosis • Q fever • Rabies • Hantavirus • West Nile Prions • Kuru • vCJD Fungal • Candidiasis • Coccidioidomycosis • Histoplasmosis 10 Terminology (1) • Infectivity – The ability of an agent to invade and multiply in a host (an infection). – Dose of organism required to establish infection in 50% of animals. • Pathogenicity – The ability of an agent to produce clinically apparent illness. • Pathogen – Infectious and non-infectious substances capable of producing tissue damage or initiating a process which can lead to a disease. 03/2015 11 Terminology (2) • Virulence – The proportion of clinical cases which produce severe disease and/or permanent sequelae. • Immunogenicity – The ability of an agent to produce specific immunity against the agent – Can be produced in general body or within specific sites such as the GI tract. – Determines the ability of an agent to re-infect the same host • e.g. measles vs. gonorrhea 03/2015 12 Terminology (3) • Reservoir – Living organisms or inanimate matter in which infectious agent normally lives and multiplies • Fomites (Vehicle) – Inanimate objects contaminated with infectious agent (not the reservoir). • E.g. toys in a daycare center. 03/2015 13 Terminology (4) • Vector – An animate source of an infectious agent. • The vector may be infected with the organism (e.g. mosquitoes and malaria) or just be a mechanical carrier (e.g. flies). • Usually insects or small mammals such as rodents. • Zoonoses – Diseases transmitted to humans from animals (e.g. anthrax) – Do they develop human-to-human spread • Bird flu 03/2015 14 Terminology (5) • Emerging Infectious Disease – An infectious disease where the incidence in humans has increased in the past 2 decades or threatens to increase in the near future (CDC) – Complex set of diseases and contributing conditions • • • • • • 03/2015 Habitat destruction War Famine Poverty Climate change Genetic Drift 15 Terminology (6) • Carrier – An infected person without apparent clinical disease who remains infectious (e.g. Typhoid Mary) • Index Case – The first case to be diagnosed in an outbreak – Sometimes defined as the first case noticed in the outbreak • Contacts – People who have possibly been infected due to relevant contact with an infectious case 03/2015 16 Terminology (7) • Attack Rate – The probability that people will get ill from the disease. Usually applied in an outbreak situation. 03/2015 17 Terminology (8) • Secondary Attack Rate – Similar to ‘attack rate’ but excludes the index case(s). Formula is: 03/2015 18 Terminology (9) • Case Fatality Rate (CFR) – The probability of death in people with an infection. 03/2015 19 03/2015 20 03/2015 21 03/2015 22 Pathogenic Mechanisms (1) • • • • • Direct Tissue Invasion (Group A Strep) Production of Toxins (Diphtheria) Allergic Host Reaction Resistant/latent infection (carriers) Enhancement of host susceptibility to drugs (e.g. Reye’s syndrome and ASA). • Immune Suppression 03/2015 23 Reservoirs (examples of transmission patterns) • Human Human Human • Animal Animal Human Animal Animal Vector Vector Human 03/2015 24 Routes for Spread of Infections Non-Contact Contact Direct Via: Shaking hands, kissing Diseases: Common cold; STDs Precautions: Wash hands; condoms; masks 03/2015 Indirect Droplet Airborne Via: Agent falls on a surface, picked up by susceptible person. Via: Through air: sneeze, cough. Droplets > 5µm Via: Aerosols (< 5µm). Can spread via ventilation systems. Diseases: RSV; Norwalk; ?influenza Precautions: Sterilizing equipment; disinfection Diseases: Meningococcus; pertussis; ?influenza Precautions: Masks; keep safe distance Diseases: TB; measles; chickenpox; smallpox Precautions: Respirators (N95 masks); neg. pressure rooms Vehicle Via: “Point source”: Single contaminated item (e.g. unrefrigerated food). “Common source”: batch of tainted items, widely distributed. Diseases: E Coli; tainted meat; chemical Vector borne Via: Transmission by animal or insect vectors. Diseases: Malaria; bird flu Precautions: Barriers; insect sprays; culling animals Precautions: Disinfection; hygiene; storage 25 Virulence • Parasite borne diseases are usually more virulent • Spread by direct contact requires an alive and active host • Agents often lose virulence as an epidemic passes – Ebola (previous epidemics) – Virulent strains kill host and don’t spread 03/2015 26 Epidemics (1) • Epidemic – Now often called an ‘outbreak’, especially if localized – The occurrence (in a community or region) of a disease/condition/behaviour clearly in excess of normal expectancy – Public’s reaction/view differs from technical definition • Pandemic – An epidemic covering a very wide area and affecting a large proportion of the population – Controversial definition • Consider H1N1 outbreak 03/2015 27 Epidemics (2) • Endemic – the occurrence of a disease/condition at a relatively constant level in a given setting, usually with ongoing transmission 03/2015 28 Epidemics (3) • Conditions increasing likelihood of an epidemic – Agent conditions • Introduction of a new pathogen • Increased amount of a pathogen • Change in the virulence of a pathogen. – Population conditions • An adequate number of exposed and susceptible persons. – An effective means of transmission between the source of the pathogen and the susceptible person. 03/2015 29 Epidemics (4) • Types of epidemics – Common source • Point source • Ongoing exposure • Need not be geographically localized – Propagated/progressive – Mixed • Epidemic curve • Spot maps • Note that epidemics can arise from behaviour as well as from traditional infectious sources. 03/2015 30 Epidemic Curves: point source (1) 03/2015 31 Epidemic Curves: propagated (2) 10 days 03/2015 32 Distribution of cases by onset of symptoms: point source type Number of cases 20 15 10 Maximum incubation period Average incubation period Minimum incubation period 5 0 03/2015 Exposure Units of Time 33 Distribution of cases by onset of symptoms Point source, Continuous exposure type Number of cases 20 15 10 5 0 Exposure begins & continues 03/2015 Units of Time 34 03/2015 35 03/2015 36 Factors Influencing Spread of Disease in a Population (1) • Period of infectivity in relationship to symptoms – Includes consideration of carrier states • Herd immunity • Type of spread – Direct – Indirect – Airborne • Transmission mechanics – Consider sexual vs. droplet spread 03/2015 37 Herd Immunity Develop disease Immune 03/2015 38 Outbreak Control (1) • Twin goals: – Minimize the impact to the affected community – Understand the cause and mode of transmission • Goals can conflict: – Need to take action in absence of full information – Need to collect full information base 03/2015 39 Outbreak Control (2) • Establish the diagnosis – Clinical examination – History, especially of exposure to: • other sick people • travel • agents – Laboratory testing • Rapid response vs. definitive tests • Determine pattern of spread – Type of outbreak – Epidemiological study of exposures ‘in common’, etc. 03/2015 40 Outbreak Control (3) • Effective and clear communication with general public is essential – Designate one spokesperson – Regular press briefings – Lessons from the SARS outbreak 03/2015 41 Outbreak Control (4) • General strategies for addressing outbreaks – Reduce host susceptibility – Interrupt Transmission of the Agent • Strategies can be useful for – Controlling an active outbreak – Preventing the onset of an outbreak 03/2015 42 Outbreak Control (5) • Reduce host susceptibility – During an outbreak • Immunization (active and passive) – Before an outbreak, or during a long outbreak • Nutrition • Improve living conditions • Improve other social determinants of health – A large part of the reason that infectious outbreaks are now so uncommon 03/2015 43 Outbreak Control (6) • Interrupt Transmission of the Agent – – – – 03/2015 Identify source of outbreak and remove it Quarantine/isolation Case treatment Contract tracing 44 Outbreak Control (7) • Interrupt Transmission of the Agent (cont) – Food inspections – Environmental clean-up – Animal population control • Rabies vaccination of wild animals – Insect spraying • Monitor for animal infections 03/2015 45 Outbreak Control (8) • Isolation – Applies to propagated epidemics – Deals with people who are already ill – Separate the infectious persons or animals from others during the period of communicability – Usually isolate for at least two incubation periods – If incubation period is unknown • Try and estimate it based on transmission patterns • Be conservative 03/2015 46 Outbreak Control (9) • Quarantine – Applies to propagated epidemics – Places restrictions on the activities of well people who (may) have been exposed to a communicable disease during its period of communicability. – Quarantine for the longest usual incubation period – Often at least two incubation periods. – ‘active surveillance’ is an alternative 03/2015 47 Outbreak Control (10) • Quarantine (cont) – More controversial than isolation since it affects people who are not currently ill (and may never get ill). – We expect some people who are quarantined to get sick 03/2015 48 Outbreak Control (11) Immunization • Passive or active • Passive can be more useful for acute outbreak control Chemoprophylaxis • Treat people with disease • Preventive use of antibiotics for people exposed – tuberculosis – meningococcal infection 03/2015 49 Outbreak Control (12) Harm Reduction (for long term outbreaks) • Focus on prevent adverse effects from harmful exposures – Needle exchange – Safe Injection sites Inactivate agent • water purification; chlorination 03/2015 50 Outbreak Control (13) Contact tracing • Done by the Public Health Department • Applies to diseases with person-to-person spread – Especially STIs • A ‘contact’ – Someone who interacted with the index case in such a way that they may have become infected • Need to treat every ‘contact’ 03/2015 51 Outbreak Control (14) Contact tracing (cont) • Index case is given chance to contact his/her ‘contacts’ • If that doesn’t happen, PHU can take proactive action and contact cases • For TB, PHU takes the lead in – contact tracing – Ensuring preventive treatment using Directly Observed Treatment methods. 03/2015 52 Outbreak Control (15) Personal hygiene measures • hand hygiene (#1 strategy) • cough etiquette • protective clothing (masks, gowns) • avoid at risk situations Family/community measures • preventing sexual abuse of children leads to reduction in STIs • Needle exchange and related programmes. 03/2015 53 Surveillance (1) The continuing scrutiny of all aspects of occurrence and spread of disease that are pertinent to effective control • Reportable diseases. – legal obligation to report designated diseases to local public health department – list includes (among many others) • • • • • • • • 03/2015 AIDS food poisoning encephalitis STIs influenza Lassa fever SARS plus many more 54 03/2015 55 03/2015 56 Number of cases by year Disease Acute Flaccid Paralysis 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 mid-year - - - - - 0 AIDS 18 6 8 6 6 1 Amebiasis 2 5 5 0 1 0 Botulism 0 0 0 0 0 0 Brucellosis 0 0 0 1 1 0 Campylobacter enteritis 221 205 222 235 216 86 Chickenpox* 373 279 265 258 65 19 Chlamydia 2024 2317 2531 2533 2403 1319 Cholera 0 0 0 0 0 0 Creutzfeld-Jacob Disease 0 1 0 1 1 0 Cryptosporidiosis 21 31 26 31 12 10 Cyclospora 15 17 8 17 3 3 Diphtheria* 0 0 0 0 0 0 Encephalitis/Meningitis 1 0 1 0 0 1 Encephalitis: Unspecified 2 0 0 1 0 0 Encephalitis: Viral 3 1 2 1 3 0 Giardiasis 150 125 147 88 76 31 Gonorrhea 218 274 217 238 257 159 Haemophilus influenzae b, Invasive (Hib)* 1 0 0 0 0 0 Hepatitis A 7 9 9 14 6 2 Hepatitis B* 3 1 5 2 5 3 Hepatitis C 308 230 231 243 240 120 HIV Infections 66 72 70 57 60 33 Influenza A* 638 13 174 213 429 205 Influenza B* 55 1 16 94 45 104 Legionella Infections 1 2 3 3 7 1 Leprosy 0 0 0 0 0 0 Listeriosis 6 2 4 1 1 0 Lyme Disease (Confirmed and Probable) 6 7 12 19 47 8 Lyme Disease (Confirmed) 5 7 11 15 12 1 Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) chlamydia - - - - - 1 #1 Disease 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 mid-year Malaria 15 30 18 13 18 7 Measles (Red)* 0 6 1 0 0 4 Meningitis: Bacterial 2 4 1 5 5 1 Meningitis: Viral 11 21 3 10 10 4 Meningococcal Disease* 7 4 2 1 1 0 Mumps* 1 2 4 4 2 0 Ophthalmia Neonatorum 0 0 0 0 0 0 Paratyphoid Fever 0 0 0 0 0 0 Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning 1 1 3 2 2 0 Pertussis (Whooping Cough) * 8 4 17 33 8 3 Polio* 0 0 0 0 0 0 Psittacosis/Ornithosis 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q Fever 0 0 2 1 0 0 Rabies (Human) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rubella (German Measles) * 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rubella, Congenital Syndrome 0 0 0 0 0 0 Salmonellosis 151 177 177 199 130 100 Shigellosis 16 15 19 19 29 11 Streptococcal Infections, Group A Invasive 34 32 50 33 53 42 Streptococcal Infections, Group B Neonatal 4 4 6 7 5 4 Streptococcus pneumoniae, Invasive 96 60 83 89 68 37 Syphilis, infectious 54 51 49 40 32 24 Tetanus (Lockjaw) * 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tuberculosis of the lung 29 30 35 21 33 20 Tuberculosis: All cases 49 48 48 42 52 29 Tularemia 0 0 0 0 0 0 Typhoid Fever 3 3 4 2 4 0 Verotoxin producing E. coli 9 5 12 12 6 2 West Nile Virus 0 0 0 8 4 0 Yellow Fever 0 0 0 1 0 0 Yersiniosis 16 21 6 9 10 5 Surveillance (2) The continuing scrutiny of all aspects of occurrence and spread of disease that are pertinent to effective control • • • • • • • • • Reportable diseases. Sentinel practices Animal/water surveys Environmental monitoring Mortality (vital statistics) Provincial laboratory tests Epidemic investigations Disease registries CIHI and related data. 03/2015 59 03/2015 60