Download 1 Earthquake Hazard Information – Hazard, Risk, Magnitude

Earthquake Hazard Information – Hazard, Risk, Magnitude,
Intensity, Earthquake Statistics – Part 1 (Information for
interpreting the results of building contest and shake table
testing; L. Braile, 03/12/03)
Earthquake ground shaking and damage are related to the size (magnitude)
of the earthquake, the distance from the epicenter, the local geological
conditions and the characteristics of buildings. Assessment of earthquake
effects involves evaluating the hazard and the risk. Definitions of these two
concepts (from the USGS, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/image_glossary/) are:
Earthquake hazard
Earthquake hazard is anything
associated with an earthquake
that may affect the normal
activities of people. This
includes surface faulting,
ground shaking, landslides,
liquefaction, tectonic
deformation, tsunamis, and
seiches.
Earthquake risk
Earthquake risk is the
probable building damage, and
number of people that are
expected to be hurt or killed
if a likely earthquake on a
particular fault occurs.
Earthquake risk and
earthquake hazard are
occasionally incorrectly used
interchangeably.
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Earthquake Magnitude: Several magnitude scales have been developed for
measuring the size of an earthquake. Magnitude is a measure of the energy
released by the earthquake. The earliest magnitude scale was Richter
magnitude and news reports still often refer to magnitudes as Richter
magnitude. However, today, the most reliable magnitude scale is the
moment magnitude, now referred to simply as M. For well-recorded,
shallow, moderate to large earthquakes, estimates of the earthquake size
using the various magnitude scales usually results in approximately the same
numerical result. Current earthquake information, including magnitude, can
be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ and http://www.iris.edu/seismon/.
A more complete description of earthquake magnitude is given below (from
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/handouts/measure.html):
Measuring the Size of an Earthquake
Earthquakes range broadly in size. A rock-burst in an Idaho silver mine may
involve the fracture of 1 meter of rock; the 1965 Rat Island earthquake in the
Aleutian arc involved a 650 kilometer length of the Earth's crust. Earthquakes can
be even smaller and even larger. If an earthquake is felt or causes perceptible
surface damage, then its intensity of shaking can be subjectively estimated. But
many large earthquakes occur in oceanic areas or at great focal depths and are
either simply not felt or their felt pattern does not really indicate their true size.
Today, state of the art seismic systems transmit data from the seismograph via
telephone line and satellite directly to a central digital computer. A preliminary
location, depth-of-focus, and magnitude can now be obtained within minutes of
the onset of an earthquake. The only limiting factor is how long the seismic
waves take to travel from the epicenter to the stations - usually less than 10
minutes.
Magnitude
Modern seismographic systems precisely amplify and record ground motion
(typically at periods of between 0.1 and 100 seconds) as a function of time. This
amplification and recording as a function of time is the source of instrumental
amplitude and arrival-time data on near and distant earthquakes. Although
similar seismographs have existed since the 1890's, it was only in the 1930's that
Charles F. Richter, a California seismologist, introduced the concept of
earthquake magnitude. His original definition held only for California earthquakes
occurring within 600 km of a particular type of seismograph (the WoodsAnderson torsion instrument). His basic idea was quite simple: by knowing the
distance from a seismograph to an earthquake and observing the maximum
signal amplitude recorded on the seismograph, an empirical quantitative ranking
of the earthquake's inherent size or strength could be made. Most California
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earthquakes occur within the top 16 km of the crust; to a first approximation,
corrections for variations in earthquake focal depth were, therefore, unnecessary.
Richter's original magnitude scale (ML) was then extended to observations of
earthquakes of any distance and of focal depths ranging between 0 and 700 km.
Because earthquakes excite both body waves, which travel into and through the
Earth, and surface waves, which are constrained to follow the natural wave guide
of the Earth's uppermost layers, two magnitude scales evolved - the mb and MS
scales.
The standard body-wave magnitude formula is
mb = log10(A/T) + Q(D,h) ,
where A is the amplitude of ground motion (in microns); T is the corresponding
period (in seconds); and Q(D,h) is a correction factor that is a function of
distance, D (degrees), between epicenter and station and focal depth, h (in
kilometers), of the earthquake. The standard surface-wave formula is
MS = log10 (A/T) + 1.66 log10 (D) + 3.30 .
There are many variations of these formulas that take into account effects of
specific geographic regions, so that the final computed magnitude is reasonably
consistent with Richter's original definition of ML. Negative magnitude values are
permissible.
A rough idea of frequency of occurrence of large earthquakes is given by the
following table:
MS
Earthquakes
per year
---------- ----------8.5 - 8.9
0.3
8.0 - 8.4
1.1
7.5 - 7.9
3.1
7.0 - 7.4
15
6.5 - 6.9
56
6.0 - 6.4
210
This table is based on data for a recent 47 year period. Perhaps the rates of
earthquake occurrence are highly variable and some other 47 year period could
give quite different results.
The original mb scale utilized compressional body P-wave amplitudes with
periods of 4-5 s, but recent observations are generally of 1 s-period P waves.
The MS scale has consistently used Rayleigh surface waves in the period range
from 18 to 22 s.
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When initially developed, these magnitude scales were considered to be
equivalent; in other words, earthquakes of all sizes were thought to radiate fixed
proportions of energy at different periods. But it turns out that larger earthquakes,
which have larger rupture surfaces, systematically radiate more long-period
energy. Thus, for very large earthquakes, body-wave magnitudes badly
underestimate true earthquake size; the maximum body-wave magnitudes are
about 6.5 - 6.8. In fact, the surface-wave magnitudes underestimate the size of
very large earthquakes; the maximum observed values are about 8.3 - 8.7. Some
investigators have suggested that the 100 s mantle Love waves (a type of
surface wave) should be used to estimate magnitude of great earthquakes.
However, even this approach ignores the fact that damage to structure is often
caused by energy at shorter periods. Thus, modern seismologists are
increasingly turning to two separate parameters to describe the physical effects
of an earthquake: seismic moment and radiated energy.
Fault Geometry and Seismic Moment, MO
The orientation of the fault, direction of fault movement, and size of an
earthquake can be described by the fault geometry and seismic moment. These
parameters are determined from waveform analysis of the seismograms
produced by an earthquake. The differing shapes and directions of motion of the
waveforms recorded at different distances and azimuths from the earthquake are
used to determine the fault geometry, and the wave amplitudes are used to
compute moment. The seismic moment is related to fundamental parameters of
the faulting process.
MO = µS‹d› ,
where µ is the shear strength of the faulted rock, S is the area of the fault, and
<d> is the average displacement on the fault. Because fault geometry and
observer azimuth are a part of the computation, moment is a more consistent
measure of earthquake size than is magnitude, and more importantly, moment
does not have an intrinsic upper bound. These factors have led to the definition
of a new magnitude scale MW, based on seismic moment, where
MW = 2/3 log10(MO) - 10.7 .
The two largest reported moments are 2.5 X 10 30 dyn·cm (dyne·centimeters)
for the 1960 Chile earthquake (MS 8.5; MW 9.6) and 7.5 X 1029 dyn·cm for the
1964 Alaska earthquake (MS 8.3; MW 9.2). MS approaches it maximum value at a
moment between 1028 and 1029 dyn·cm.
Energy, E
The amount of energy radiated by an earthquake is a measure of the potential
for damage to man-made structures. Theoretically, its computation requires
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summing the energy flux over a broad suite of frequencies generated by an
earthquake as it ruptures a fault. Because of instrumental limitations, most
estimates of energy have historically relied on the empirical relationship
developed by Beno Gutenberg and Charles Richter:
log10E = 11.8 + 1.5MS
where energy, E, is expressed in ergs. The drawback of this method is that M S
is computed from an bandwidth between approximately 18 to 22 s. It is now
known that the energy radiated by an earthquake is concentrated over a different
bandwidth and at higher frequencies. With the worldwide deployment of modern
digitally recording seismograph with broad bandwidth response, computerized
methods are now able to make accurate and explicit estimates of energy on a
routine basis for all major earthquakes. A magnitude based on energy radiated
by an earthquake, Me, can now be defined,
Me = 2/3 log10E - 2.9.
For every increase in magnitude by 1 unit, the associated seismic energy
increases by about 32 times.
Although Mw and Me are both magnitudes, they describe different physical
properites of the earthquake. Mw, computed from low-frequency seismic data, is
a measure of the area ruptured by an earthquake. M e, computed from high
frequency seismic data, is a measure of seismic potential for damage.
Consequently, Mw and Me often do not have the same numerical value.
Intensity
The increase in the degree of surface shaking (intensity) for each unit increase
of magnitude of a shallow crustal earthquake is unknown. Intensity is based on
an earthquake's local accelerations and how long these persist. Intensity and
magnitude thus both depend on many variables that include exactly how rock
breaks and how energy travels from an earthquake to a receiver. These factors
make it difficult for engineers and others who use earthquake intensity and
magnitude data to evaluate the error bounds that may exist for their particular
applications.
An example of how local soil conditions can greatly influence local intensity is
given by catastrophic damage in Mexico City from the 1985, M S 8.1 Mexico
earthquake centered some 300 km away. Resonances of the soil-filled basin
under parts of Mexico City amplified ground motions for periods of 2 seconds by
a factor of 75 times. This shaking led to selective damage to buildings 15 - 25
stories high (same resonant period), resulting in losses to buildings of about $4.0
billion and at least 8,000 fatalities.
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The occurrence of an earthquake is a complex physical process. When an
earthquake occurs, much of the available local stress is used to power the
earthquake fracture growth to produce heat rather that to generate seismic
waves. Of an earthquake system's total energy, perhaps 10 percent to less that 1
percent is ultimately radiated as seismic energy. So the degree to which an
earthquake lowers the Earth's available potential energy is only fractionally
observed as radiated seismic energy.
by William Spence, Stuart A. Sipkin, and George L. Choy
Earthquakes and Volcanoes
Volume 21, Number 1, 1989
Earthquake intensity (usually described with the Modified Mercalli Intensity
Scale) is a measure of earthquake effects and level of ground shaking at a
particular location. A description of earthquake intensity is given below
(from http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/general/handouts/mercalli.html):
The Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale
The effect of an earthquake on the Earth's surface is called the intensity. The
intensity scale consists of a series of certain key responses such as people
awakening, movement of furniture, damage to chimneys, and finally - total
destruction. Although numerous intensity scales have been developed over the
last several hundred years to evaluate the effects of earthquakes, the one
currently used in the United States is the Modified Mercalli (MM) Intensity Scale.
It was developed in 1931 by the American seismologists Harry Wood and Frank
Neumann. This scale, composed of 12 increasing levels of intensity that range
from imperceptible shaking to catastrophic destruction, is designated by Roman
numerals. It does not have a mathematical basis; instead it is an arbitrary ranking
based on observed effects.
The Modified Mercalli Intensity value assigned to a specific site after an
earthquake has a more meaningful measure of severity to the nonscientist than
the magnitude because intensity refers to the effects actually experienced at that
place. After the occurrence of widely-felt earthquakes, the Geological Survey
mails questionnaires to postmasters in the disturbed area requesting the
information so that intensity values can be assigned. The results of this postal
canvass and information furnished by other sources are used to assign an
intensity within the felt area. The maximum observed intensity generally occurs
near the epicenter.
The lower numbers of the intensity scale generally deal with the manner in which
the earthquake is felt by people. The higher numbers of the scale are based on
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observed structural damage. Structural engineers usually contribute information
for assigning intensity values of VIII or above.
The following is an abbreviated description of the 12 levels of Modified Mercalli
intensity.
I. Not felt except by a very few under especially favorable conditions.
II. Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of
buildings.
III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of
buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing
motor cars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck.
Duration estimated.
IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some
awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound.
Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked
noticeably.
V. Felt by nearly everyone; many awakened. Some dishes, windows
broken. Unstable objects overturned. Pendulum clocks may stop.
VI. Felt by all, many frightened. Some heavy furniture moved; a few
instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII. Damage negligible in buildings of good design and construction; slight
to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in
poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken.
VIII. Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable damage
in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in
poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns,
monuments, walls. Heavy furniture overturned.
IX. Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well-designed
frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial
buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.
X. Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame
structures destroyed with foundations. Rails bent.
XI. Few, if any (masonry) structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed.
Rails bent greatly.
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XII. Damage total. Lines of sight and level are distorted. Objects thrown
into the air.
Abridged from The Severity of an Earthquake, a U. S. Geological Survey General
Interest Publication.
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1989-288-913
This publication is one of a series of general interest publications prepared by the
U.S. Geological Survey to provide information about the earth sciences, natural
resources, and the environment. To obtain a catalog of additional titles in the
series "General Interest Publications of the U.S. Geological Survey," write:
U.S. Geological Survey
Information Services
Box 25286
Denver, CO 80225
Earthquake Facts and Statistics (from
http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html)
Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes
Based on Observations since 1900
Descriptor Magnitude
Average Annually
Great
8 and higher
1
Major
7 - 7.9
18
Strong
6 - 6.9
120
Moderate
5 - 5.9
800
Light
4 - 4.9
6,200 (estimated)
Minor
3 - 3.9
49,000 (estimated)
Very Minor
< 3.0
Magnitude 2 - 3: about 1,000 per day
Magnitude 1 - 2: about 8,000 per day
The USGS estimates that several million earthquakes occur in the world each
year. Many go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small
magnitudes. The NEIC now locates about 50 earthquakes each day, or about
20,000 a year.
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Number of Earthquakes Worldwide for 1990 - 2002
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information
Center
Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
2002
8.0 to 9.9
0
0
0
1
2
3
1
0
2
0
1
1
0
7.0 to 7.9
12
11
23
15
13
22
21
20
14
23
14
15
13
6.0 to 6.9
115
105
104
141
161
185
160
125
113
123
158
126
133
979 1106 1345 1243
1037
4.0 to 4.9 4493 4372 5196 5034 4544 8140 8794 7938 7303 7042 8045 8084
8034
3.0 to 3.9 2457 2952 4643 4263 5000 5002 4869 4467 5945 5521 4784 6151
6542
2.0 to 2.9 2364 2927 3068 5390 5369 3838 2388 2397 4091 4201 3758 4162
5884
1.0 to 1.9
474
801
944
1068
0.1 to 0.9
0
1
1
6
No
5062 3878 4084 3997 1944 1826 2186 3415 2426 2096 3120 2807
Magnitude
2687
5.0 to 5.9 1635 1469 1541 1449 1542 1327 1223 1118
887 1177
2
9
779
645
295
388
805
17
19
1
4
10
715 1028
5
5
Total 16612 16516 19548 21476 19371 21007 19938 19872 21688 20832 22256 23534 *25404
Estimated
51916 2326 3814 10036 1038 7949
Deaths
419 2907 8928 22711
231 21357
Number of Earthquakes in the United States for 1990 - 2002
Located by the US Geological Survey National Earthquake Information
Center
Magnitude 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
8.0 to 9.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.0 to 7.9
0
1
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
2+
1
0
1
1
6.0 to 6.9
3
6
9
9
5
7
6
6
3
5
10
5
5
5.0 to 5.9
72
50
84
69
67
49 109
63
62
52
60
45
52
4.0 to 4.9 283 255 404 269 331 355 621 362 411 360 287 294
401
1711
10
3.0 to 3.9 621 701 1713 1115 1543 1050 1042 1072 1053 1388 913 834
831
2.0 to 2.9 411 555 996 1007 1194 820 652 759 742 814 657 646
659
1.0 to 1.9
1
3
5
7
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
2
0.1 to 0.9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
No
877 599 368 457 444 444 375 575 508 381 415 434
Magnitude
440
Total 2268 2170 3581 2933 3587 2725 2807 2839 2779 3003 2342 2261 *2391
Estimated
Deaths
0
2
3
2
60
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Red values indicate the earthquakes occurred in Alaska.
Blue values indicate the earthquakes occurred in California.
* As of 08 January 2003
Earthquakes Located by the USGS NEIC 1980-1989.
Earthquakes Located by the USGS NEIC 1970-1979.
As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes
can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes
(magnitude 6.0 or greater) have stayed relatively constant.
Graphs
TABLE 4 - Magnitude vs. Ground Motion and Energy
Magnitude Ground Motion Change
Change
(Displacement)
Energy
Change
1.0
10.0 times
about 32 times
0.5
3.2 times
about 5.5 times
0.3
2.0 times
about 3 times
0.1
1.3 times
about 1.4 times
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TABLE 4 shows, for example, that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake produces 10
times more ground motion that a magnitude 6.2 earthquake, but it releases about
32 times more energy. The energy release best indicates the destructive power
of an earthquake.
Another example:
How much bigger is a magnitude 9.7 earthquake than a 6.8 earthquake?
A magnitude 9.7 earthquake is 794 times BIGGER on a seismogram than a
magnitude 6.8 earthquake. The magnitude scale is logarithmic, so
(10**9.7)/(10**6.8) = (5.01*10**9)/(6.31*10**6) = .794*10**3 = 794
OR
= 10**(9.7-6.8) = 10**2.9 = 794.328
Another way to get about the same answer without using a calculator is that
since 1 unit of magnitude is 10 times the amplitude on a seismogram and 0.1 unit
of magnitude is about 1.3 times the amplitude, we can get,
10 * 10
approximation]
*
10
/
1.3
=
769
times
[not
exact,
but
a
decent
The magnitude scale is really comparing amplitudes of waves on a seismogram,
not the STRENGTH (energy) of the quakes. So, a magnitude 9.7 is 794 times
bigger than a 6.8 quake as measured on seismograms, but the 9.7 quake is
about 23,000 times STRONGER than the 6.8! Since it is really the energy or
strength that knocks down buildings, this is really the more important
comparison. This means that it would take about 23,000 quakes of magnitude
6.8 to equal the energy released by one magnitude 9.7 event. Here's how we get
that number:
One whole unit of magnitude represents approximately 32 times (actually 10**1.5
times) the energy, based on a long-standing empirical formula that says log(E) is
proportional to 1.5M, where E is energy and M is magnitude. This means that a
change of 0.1 in magnitude is about 1.4 times the energy release. Therefore,
using the shortcut shown eartlier for the amplitude calculation, the energy is,
32 * 32 * 32 / 1.4 = 23,405 or about 23,000
The actual formula would be:
((10**1.5)**9.7)/((10**1.5)**6.8)
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= 10**(1.5*(9.7-6.8)) = 10**(1.5*2.9) = 22,387
This explains why big quakes are so much more devastating than small ones.
The amplitude ("size") differences are big enough, but the energy ("strength")
differences are huge. The amplitude numbers are neater and a little easier to
explain, which is why those are used more often in publications. But it's the
energy that does the damage.
Maps of intensity of ground shaking can be prepared for specific
earthquakes. Today, color maps are prepared very quickly for significant
events from predictions based on the earthquake location and magnitude or
from reports of ground shaking (“felt reports”) and the maps displayed on
the USGS web page (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/shakemap/). Examples of
these shake maps for the January 17, 1994 Northridge earthquake, the
October 17, 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and the February 9, 1971 San
Fernando earthquake are shown below. The table and color code beneath
the maps illustrates the correlation between potential damage, peak ground
acceleration and Modified Mercalli Intensity. The intensity of ground
shaking (and therefore damage) is usually greatest near the earthquake
epicenter and decreases rapidly with distance from the epicenter. Local
geology (near-surface ground conditions) and building characteristics also
influence the intensity distribution.
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A map of peak ground accelerations, an acceleration versus distance plot and
an intensity map for the January 17, 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake are shown
below (from http://www.eqe.com/publications/kobe/kobe.htm):
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