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Challenges of Sustainable Development in Ethiopia (Mekete Bekele Tekle) T Ethiopia has many climate types, including: ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ ◦ The Hot Arid, Hot Semi-Arid, Tropical with distinct dry winter, Tropical Monsoon Rainy with short dry winter, Warm Temperate Rainy with dry winter, and Warm Temperate Rainy without distinct dry season, etc UNFCCC defines Climate change as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’ (Art. 1 paragraph 2 of UNFCCC). Are anyone of the following common and recurring GREAT events Ethiopia related to climate change? Great Green Great Great Great Famines Famines Floods Forest Fires Fighting (internal & external wars) Ethiopia suffers climate shocks as a result of: dependence on rain-fed agriculture low adaptive capacity to climate change high vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change such as: ◦ Flooding ◦ Harvest failure ◦ Loss of livestock These are some of the causes that trigger the “great” adverse events in the country. As part of the overall effort to alleviate poverty, Ethiopia has plans, programs and strategies to fight climate change. For example, Adaptation to climate change and mitigation actions –such as tree planting, etc.; Creating public awareness about climate change effects/impacts Working towards the MDGs through its Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) – poverty eradication plan of action program Eradication of poverty through accelerated rural development; Agricultural Development-Led Industrialization (ADLI); Rehabilitation of the Environment; Capacity Building for good governance; Development of basic health services and primary education; Containing the AIDS pandemic, using all possible approaches; Consolidating peace and participatory democracy; decentralization and building the capacity of each region; Integrating gender into all development activities. Implementing climate change adaptation & mitigation through the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and integrating the same into the PASDEP Investing in agricultural research on the use of new crop varieties and livestock species that are more tolerant to drought. Ensuring public participation in formulating climate change policies and in integrating climate change into development priorities. Recommendations at community level for adaptation include: Investing in livelihood opportunities and risk management strategies for poor farmers and pastoralists, particularly women; Improving agriculture extension services; Preparing long-term adaptation; Enhancing farmers’ traditional knowledge of adaptation; Investing in new forestation and reforestation programs & sustainable management of the remaining forests; Investing in community environmental and drought monitoring systems and disaster risk reduction capacity; and Increasing use of renewable energy such as solar energy. Problems such as “population explosion” or population bomb” are much debatable as there is no consensus among different scholars in the area. About three decades ago Ehrlichs and Holdren wrote: It is clear that the future course of history will be determined by the rates at which people breed and die, by the rapidity with which nonrenewable resources are consumed, by the extent and speed with which agricultural production can be improved, by the rate at which the underdeveloped areas can industrialize, by the rapidity with which we are able to develop new resources, as well as by the extent to which we succeed in avoiding future wars. All of these factors are interlocked. [Paul Ehrlich, Anne Ehrlich and John Holdren, Eco-science, Population, Resources and Development (1977) 1] Could this assertion still be valid? Population size and World ranking Past (1970): Current (2010): Projection (2050): 29,673,211 (25th populous) 82,311,882 (15th populous) 187,892,174 (9th populous) According to the recent UNDP and Oxford University Multidimensional Poverty Indicators (MPI) Ethiopia the second poorest country in the world Ethiopia aims at harmonization of the rate of population growth and capacity building for the development and rational utilization of natural resources to the end that the level of welfare of the population is maximized over time. (Population Policy of Ethiopia, 1993) Some of the specific objectives of the policy include: ◦ reducing the total fertility rate from 7.7 children per woman to 4.0 by 2015; ◦ increasing use of contraceptives from 4 percent to 44 percent by 2015; ◦ reducing maternal and infant mortality rates; ◦ increasing the involvement of women in the economic activities and ensuring environmental security Regardless of the fact that Ethiopian population’s growth rate being one of the fastest in the world, there are certain achievements towards the policy goal. Some of the achievements are: ◦ fertility rate is on the decrease from 7.7 and projected to be 4.8 by 2015; ◦ use of contraceptives has increased from 4 percent to about 20 percent; The increased involvement of women in the economic activities; ◦ the revision of the Ethiopian Family Code that abolished forced marriage is believed to have contributed to the decrease in the total fertility rate of maternal and child mortality. Ethiopia adopted a program for Sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction in 2002 and managed to: ◦ Access to clean water reached 59.5% (86.2% for urban and 53.9% for rural); ◦ Construction of several irrigation schemes to develop millions of hectares of land to ensure food security; ◦ issuance of land titling certificates to farmers; ◦ Water harvesting for domestic use, livestock and plant growth; and ◦ forestation and reforestation of hundreds of thousands of hectares of land According to the 2003 Government and the UN country Team joint report Ethiopia is required to grow at the rate of 5.7% per annum to meet its MDGs. Soon after the report the government started to report about 11% or growth rates annually A revised poverty eradication strategy, Plan for Accelerated Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) was adopted and is believed to have contributed the following achievements over the period of four years (2004-2008): ◦ per capita income increase from $110 to $870; ◦ Rise of life expectancy at birth from 42 to 55 years; ◦ infant mortality rate had decreased while the total fertility rate almost remains the same. Ethiopia’s claim for the sustained and rapid economic (double digit) growth is being refuted by experts and by the reality on the ground. According to the recent finding by UNDP and Oxford University about 90% of Ethiopian are poor while about 40% are below the poverty line. The root causes of poverty in the Ethiopian context are basically environmental problems that affect the agricultural sector. The current popular development agenda in the country is achieving accelerated sustainable development to eradicate Though the process of poverty reduction appears to be a daunting task and frustrating the, it is hoped that Ethiopia will somehow achieve its MDGs.