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ECON 102 Tutorial: Week 23 Shane Murphy www.lancaster.ac.uk/postgrad/murphys4/econ15 [email protected] Today’s Outline Week 23 worksheet – Money and Bonds Additional Slides at the end contain material from past exams – these might be helpful for your revision, so I’ve included them. Question 1 Within Keynesian models the demand to hold money is called ‘liquidity preference’ (i.e., a preference to hold ‘money’ as the most liquid of wealth assets) as the alternative to holding bonds, This is written (and drawn below) as a demand curve for money: L = L(Y, r); with L1 > 0; L2 < 0. a) Explain the respective meanings of L1 > 0; L2 < 0. liquidity preference increases as (i) income rises: by the need to undertake more transactions, the demand curve shifts outwards; (ii) the interest rate falls: there is a movement along the demand curve. Question 1 Within Keynesian models the demand to hold money is called ‘liquidity preference’ (i.e., a preference to hold ‘money’ as the most liquid of wealth assets) as the alternative to holding bonds, This is written (and drawn below) as a demand curve for money: L = L(Y, r); with L1 > 0; L2 < 0. b) With an exogenous shift in the money supply (M1 to M2) what is the reaction by economic agents that causes the interest rate fall from r1 to r2? From their initial (asset-portfolio equilibrium, agents now hold too much money. Their reaction is to buy bonds. As bond prices rise, interest rates fall. Question 1 Within Keynesian models the demand to hold money is called ‘liquidity preference’ (i.e., a preference to hold ‘money’ as the most liquid of wealth assets) as the alternative to holding bonds, This is written (and drawn below) as a demand curve for money: L = L(Y, r); with L1 > 0; L2 < 0. c) What is meant by exogenous? Outside of the model, external to the model. Question 2 In question 6 of week 18 there is a specific form (MD = 20,000 − 8,000r) of the more general function: L = L(Y, r) where L is the demand to hold money (‘MD’) Y is nominal income r is the interest rate The independent variables (Y, r) relate respectively to the transactions demand to hold money (i.e., the use of money as a means of exchange) and the speculative demand to hold money (i.e., the use of money as a store of value). a) Where money is held for speculative purposes, what is the nature of the speculation? That bond prices are likely to fall (leaving a capital loss to the bondholders). Question 3 The manner in which the liquidity preference schedule falls asymptotically (as in the diagram shown above) is described by Keynes as the ‘liquidity trap.’ a) Give the rationale for the liquidity trap. There is a fear that bond prices will fall: ‘a long-term rate of interest of (say) 2 per cent, leaves more to fear than to hope, and offers, at the same time, a running yield which is only sufficient to offset a very small measure of fear’ (TGT, 202) b) Show how the liquidity trap is relevant to a horizontal LM line. Question 4 A contemporary of Keynes disparagingly described his liquidity preference theory of interest rate determination as a ‘bond price theory’. a) Explain that description. Where central bank intervention puts new money into circulation the result is an increase in the demand for bonds: as bond prices rise, bond yields fall and, across competitive money markets generally, interest rates fall. b) Explain the inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates. The capitalised value of an annuity varies inversely with the discount rate. Question 5 Extending the content of question 6 of week 18, UK commercial banks tend not to operate according to the model found in Economics textbooks. Therefore, a) Explain the manner in which a UK commercial bank creates credit money in 2016 A commercial bank credits the account of a client with £x (the bank’s liability) and simultaneously writes £x (as the bank’s asset) on the other side of the balance sheet. When the account holder writes a cheque, the credit will be transferred to another’s account. Unless recipients then withdraw banknotes from their accounts, the commercial bank has created bank credit money. As the liabilities of commercial banks are transferred between different accounts, those liabilities are serving as endogenous money; i.e., bank credit money. Question 5 Extending the content of question 6 of week 18, UK commercial banks tend not to operate according to the model found in Economics textbooks. Therefore, b) Explain how a ‘repo’ allows a commercial bank to obtain reserves from the central bank A central bank ‘refinances’ a commercial bank loan by buying a debt instrument (i.e., a ‘bond’, ‘security’ or ‘iou’) at price P1, where the commercial bank agrees to repurchase that security at a later date at price P2 > P1. The interest paid is determined by the two prices and the duration of the repo. Question 6 Explain how a UK building society cannot create credit money. UK building societies do not feature within the commercial bank clearing system wherein bank credit money may circulate between individuals’ accounts. Instead, building societies hold accounts with banks to enable them to make transfers in the same manner as individual holders of commercial bank deposits make transfers. Question 7 & 8 7. What is the money base (aka base money, narrow money, exogenous money, UK - M0)? Base money is created (new banknotes and reserves) as the liability of the central bank 8. What is broad money (UK - M4)? Broad money is the sum of bank credit money and banknotes in circulation. The exclusion of base money held as ‘till money’ by commercial banks is necessary to avoid double-counting. Next Class Week 24 Worksheet Practice Past Exam Questions Please Note: Solutions are not given to tutors for these questions. The solutions I’ve prepared here are my best guess – I cannot guarantee they are correct. Note: View in slideshow mode for suggested solutions. Fiscal monetarists argue that inflation is a consequence of excessive growth in: a) revenue from taxation b) sovereign debt c) the money supply d) national output 2013 Exam Q36 As defined in Keynes’s General Theory, ‘involuntary unemployment’ relates to individuals whose employment prospects would be raised by a) a rise in the price of wage goods (i.e., a rise in the cost of living) b) a fall in the price of wage goods (i.e., a fall in the cost of living) c) greater trade union participation d) a shift to capital-intensive production methods 2013 Exam Q30 Labour Market: real wage (W/P) W/P1 MPL E1 L1 ‘Men are involuntarily unemployed if, in the event of a small rise in the price of wage-goods (P2 > P1) relative to the money-wage (W), both the aggregate supply of labour willing to work (L2) for the current money-wage and the aggregate demand for it at that wage (E2) would be greater than the existing volume of employment (E1)’ (Keynes, 1936) 2013 Exam Q30 Assuming national income is at the full employment level, which one of the following policies would be most likely to lead to inflation? a) A fall in taxation with unchanged Government spending b) A reduction in investment by firms c) A fall in exports d) An increase in labour productivity with no corresponding increase in wages 2014 Exam Q27 In the IS-LM model, a fall in the money supply will: a) Shift the LM curve downwards b) Cause the interest rate to rise and so raise investment c) Cause the interest rate to fall and so raise investment d) Cause national income to fall and the interest rate to rise 2014 Exam Q30 Causation is determined in Keynesian macroeconomic models by a) consumers’ behaviour b) changes in exogenous variables c) investors’ behaviour d) changes in endogenous variables 2014 Exam Q40 Keynes’s analysis of the demand to hold money (i.e., ‘liquidity preference’) assumes that asset holders speculate in regard to a) the exchange rate b) prices of consumption goods c) prices of capital goods d) bond prices 2014 Exam Q34 Money illusion is people failing to distinguish between a) Real and money wages b) Real and nominal interest rate c) Real and nominal money balances d) All of the above 2014 Exam Q33 Which aggregate demand curve indicates a situation of inflationary The diagram below refers to questions 31 and 32 and demand? shows aggregate demand (D) curves and an aggregate a)D1 b)D2 c) D3 d)D4 supply curve (S) for an economy. 2014 Exam Q33 An increase in aggregate demand above D3 will lead to: a) More goods and services being produced b) Fewer goods and services being produced c) The same amount of goods and services being produced d) It is impossible to tell The diagram below shows aggregate demand (D) curves and an aggregate supply curve (S) for an economy. 2014 Exam Q34