Download Urban Sustainability and Some of its Emerging New Critical Challenges

Urban Sustainability
and Some of its Emerging New Critical
Challenges
beyond water, energy, health, infrastructure, etc.
George Bugliarello
Polytechnic Institute of New York University
Urban Sustainability Overview
1. The Urban Explosion
2. The Intersection of Two Enormous Challenges
3. What We Know
4. What is Sustainability?
5. Two Paradigms
6. New Critical Challenges
7. Needed in order to Address the Challenges
8. Overarching Answers we seek
1. The Urban Explosion
100
Rural
Urban
World
Population 50
(%)
1900
2010
2100
Time
Sao Paulo
http://www.ssvmusa.org/images/brazil/saoPaulo.jpg
Kibera
(Nairobi, Kenya)
http://www.myseveralworlds.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/kibera_5_600.jpg
Hiroshima
Mannheim - 1695
Detroit
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_4Fiqne5k0qg/SUYF3hlW1xI/
AAAAAAAABh4/KQV8V3xUhOM/s400/detroit_03.jpg
2. Urban Sustainability:
The Intersection of Two
Enormous Challenges
URBANIZATION
TREND:
SUSTAINABILITY
Urban Sustainability:
The Two Contexts
LOCAL CONTEXT
Conditions within cities that make them
livable indefinitely
GLOBAL CONTEXT
Impact of urban phenomenon on global
sustainability and vice versa
The two contexts often clash, but ultimately
one implies the other.
Examples of Physical And Demographic
Impact Of Cities On Global Sustainability
RESOURCES
CITY
POLLUTION
FOOTPRINTS
TEMPERATURE
RAINFALL INFILTRATION
BIRTH RATES
Reciprocal Urban
„
„
„
„
„
„
Global Risks
Epidemics
Financial disruptions
Social unrest
Disasters
Hostilities
Climate change
The city itself as a critical infrastructure
Cities and Climate Change
Climate
Changes
Cities
Rest of World
3. What We Know
The Urban Cycle
„ Megacities
„The Suburbs
„ Developed vs Developing World Cities
„ Impacts of Urbanization
„
Historically
The Urban Cycle
Cities
Agriculture
Industrialized
Agriculture
Business and
Technology
Need for new infrastructure
•Concentrated
populations
•Knowledge
•Material Capital
•Social Capital
•Machine Capital
•Environmental degradation
•Stress on resources
Conflict
Absorption of Smaller
Habitats
Poverty
Encouragement
of small
concentrations
New Urbanism
The Population Cycle
Agriculture
Industrialized
Agriculture
Cities
Megacities
Small Communities
„
Cities > 1 million inhabitants
Early 20th Century
16
„
Rate of population growth
Smaller Centers
≥ 10%
„
Today
400
Causes of growth
Health
„ Birth Rates
„ Immigration
„
Larger Cities
≤ 5%
Megacities
Trajectories of Some of the Largest Cities
1980
2000
2025
Tokyo
28,549
Tokyo
34,450
Tokyo
36,400
New York-Newark
15,601
Mexico City
18,022
Mumbai
26,385
Mexico City
13,010
New York-Newark
17,846
Dhaka
22,015
Sao Paulo
12,089
Sao Paulo
17,099
Sao Paulo
21,428
Osaka-Kobe
9,990
Mumbai
16,086
Mexico City
21,009
Los Angeles/Long
Beach/Santa Ana
9,512
Shanghai
13,243
New York-Newark
20,628
Buenos Aires
9,422
Calcutta
13,058
Calcutta
20,560
Calcutta
9,030
Buenos Aires
11,847
Shanghai
19,412
Paris
8,669
Los Angeles/Long
Beach/Santa Ana
11,814
Karachi
19,095
Mumbai
8,658
Osaka
11,165
Lagos
15,796
Seoul
8,258
Dhaka
10,285
Beijing
14,545
Shanghai
7,608
Karachi
10,109
Buenos Aires
13,768
Beijing
6,448
Seoul
9,917
Los Angeles/Long
Beach/Santa Ana
13,672
Jakarta
5,984
Beijing
9,782
Jakarta
12, 363
Karachi
5,048
Paris
9,692
Osaka-Kobe
11,368
Dhaka
3,266
Jakarta
8,390
Paris
10,036
Lagos
2,572
Lagos
7,233
Seoul
9,738
Source: World Urbanization Project:
The 2007 Revision Population Database
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
Megacities
Megacities are a spontaneous
process, a complex organism that
„
„
Is a key instrument of:
„ birth rate reduction
„ human genome diversity
„ social and cultural advances
„ economic concentration
„ new market opportunities
„ …
Is environmentally compact
„
„
But has serious and growing dysfunctionalities,
e.g.,
„ concentrated poverty
„ massive infrastructure deficits
„ crime, discontent, targets of violence
„ expanding footprints
„ urban sprawl
„ resources
„ pollution
Is increasingly contributing to climate change
„ …
The Suburb
Challenges
•Low population density
•Material and energy consumption
•Mobility
•Organization and growth
•Relation to urban core
Irvine, California
Developed vs Developing World
Cities
Developed
Developing
L
Urban Growth
H
H
Resources
L
H
Demographic Stability
L
H
Population Age
L
H
Tertiary Sector
L
H
Knowledge Resources
L
H
Good Internal Environment
L
H
Consumption
L
H
Ecological Impact
L
H
L
“Plasticity”
H
H
Traffic Congestion
H
………
Note: This is a generalization, but many differences
depend on the specific cities considered
L: Low
H: High
The Tragedy of Poverty
Globalization
Jobs migrate
Agricultural
poverty
Urban
poverty
A Theory of Affluence (Ausubel)
The Critical Importance of Connections
At time Τ2
At time Τ1
Affluence,
Number of
Connections
Population
Segments
1
2
3
Poor
Developing
Developed
•1: The poor remain poor.
•2 and 3: Economic growth tied to number of connections.
Long Term Impacts of
Urbanization on Our Species
„
„
„
„
„
„
Deterioration of most people’s health in past
3000 years (European General History of
Health Project [Science, May 1, 2009])
Leprosy, TB, scurvy, dental cavities in
settlements crowded with humans and
animals.
Shrinking stature
Improvement since mid 19th century
U.S. decline since 1950
Emotional and psychological impact
Older
Newer
(Samples from
2 million to
5000 years ago)
( <1000 yrs ago) :
15% weaker
Source: Ruff, Christopher, “Gracilization of the Modern Human Skeleton”
American Scientist, November-December 2006.
Source: Ruff, Christopher, “Gracilization of the Modern Human Skeleton”
American Scientist, November-December 2006.
4. What is Sustainability?
Many definitions
e.g. Brundtland’s Commission
the ability to do what we need today
without compromising the ability of future
generations to do what they need
Urban Sustainability Factors:
Reciprocal impacts of:
„ Security
City
Examples
Baghdad of Caliphate (1258)
„
Geo-environmental risks
Thera
Mayan cities
Fordlandia
New Orleans
„
Resources
Kolyma cities
„
Economics
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Venice
„
Quality of life
Kolyma cities
„
Demographics
“shrinking cities”
A Science of Sustainability
„
Domain?
„
„
Central question?
„
„
What makes an entity sustainable?
Axioms?
1.
2.
3.
„
Tangible and Intangible entities
Nothing is sustainable forever.
Sustainability is a process to extend the durability
of an entity
The sustainability of an entity is inseparable from
the interactions with other entities.
Paradigms?
5. Two Paradigms
Biosoma-Environmental
„ System of Systems
„
The Biosoma-Environmental
Paradigm
City as a concentrator of biological, societal,
and machine entities (the biosoma)
EARTH
BIO
SO
MA
Life
Society
Machines
Humans
Cities
5
4
3
2
BILLION YEARS AGO
1
TODAY
The biosoma
Bio
Ma
So
• Humans
• Organizations
• Other Species • Religion
• Customs
• Trust
• ...
Sociobiology
• Geography
• Housing
• Climate
• Infrastructure
• Transportation • Resources
• Utilities
• …
• Other machines
SO
BIO
Environment
ENVIRONMENT
MA
Biotechnology
Environmental Science
and Engineering
Predictability
BIO
SO
MA
Semipredictable
Semipredictable
~predictable
ENVIRONMENT
Semi to Unpredictable
Synergies and/or Trade-Offs
Examples:
BIO
SO
MA
Birth Control
•Rhythm
•Social Pressure
•Contraceptives
Sorting of solid
waste
•Handpicking
•Social Status
•Automation
Security
•Guards
•Community
Vigilance
•Sensors,
Weapons
The Biosoma-Environmental Matrix
Synergies and/or Trade-Offs
BIO
SO
MATERIALS
MA
5
3
ENERGY
2
1
INFORMATION
SYSTEMS
4
ENV.
Examples:
1.
energy and
information
2.
materials and
information
3.
materials vs energy
4.
bio and machine
systems
5.
bio-environmentmachine (e.g.,
bioremediation)
: Synergies or Tradeoffs
“Playing Alone”
Machine Impacts on Society
Attendance
WW II
1960
Time
Club and Church Attendance in the U.S.
(Ref: Putnam “Bowling Alone”)
“Living Alone”
Societal Impacts on Machines
3.2
Persons
dwelling
2.2
1950
Today
Inhabitants/Dwelling in the U.S.
The System of Systems Paradigm
„
„
Myriad of interacting components
Organizing principle: e.g.
„
„
Limited autonomy of components
Coordinating mechanism for intervention
when limits exceeded
Challenges of the Paradigm
„
„
„
„
„
Identify key components and
interactions
Effective organizing principles
Sensing and response mechanisms
“Orphan problems” at systems’
intersections
Monetize value-added technical and
policy innovations
Combining the Paradigms:
The City as a Biosoma-Environmental
System of Systems
6. Urban Sustainability
New Critical Challenges
beyond water, energy, health, infrastructure,
climate change, etc.
„ Demography
and Economic
systems
„ Food, energy, hunger, and
poverty
„ Effective policies
Demography and Economic Systems
Today’s
retirement age
Age
% of Population
Developing World
„
„
„
„
Developed World
Employment of Seniors?
Urban Manufacturing
Wages vs Entrepreneurship
Recalibrate Globalization
Aging Population
e.g. China 2050:
~ 440 million > 60 years old
1.6 workers/seniors
Globalization
e.g. China’s reliance on exports, lower wages
Developed world’s job losses
Urban Manufacturing
Many cities’ quest to replace traditional
manufacturing with new industries (e.g.
biotechnologies, information, urban
technologies)
Immigrants from the countryside prefer
stable wages to the risks of
entrepreneurship
Food, Energy, Hunger, and Poverty
„
Beyond the Green Revolution!
Biotechnology
„ Logistics
„ Industrialized Agriculture?
„
„
„
The Food-Energy Dynamics
The Food-Affluence Dynamics
Effective Policies
„
„
„
„
„
Political Realism
Graduality, Flexibility, Accessibility and
Affordability
Coordination
Interurban Synergisms - The Global
Supercities
Avoidance of vicious cycles
Political Realism
e.g.:
„ Appropriate balances:
Centralized vs Decentralized
„ Soft vs Hard solutions
„ Local vs Regional focus
„ Free Market vs Interventions
„ New vs Locally New
„…
„
„
„
Good enough solutions!
Speed!
Political Realism (cont’d)
Reactive versus Proactive Environmental Policies
High Cost
Cost-Saving
REMEDIATION
CONSERVATION
Water
Material
Energy
ENVIRONMENT AS ECONOMIC GOOD
Decarburization
Clean water
Recreation
LAND USE – TRASPORTATION
e.g. Light Rail Transit
GREEN BUILDINGS
Coordination
„
Elimination of contradictory policies,
e.g:
Subsidies
„ Efficiency versus employment
„ Taxation versus incentives
„ Different jurisdictions
„
Harmonization of Urban, Regional,
National and Global Policies
Urban needs, goals and policies cannot
be addressed only locally
„
Regional Decentralization
„ Industry & Business Location
„ Commonality of Services
„ Urban-Rural Watershed Partnership
„
Inter-Urban Synergies
The Global Supercities
•
To facilitate innovations for common problems by
assembling more resources and creating bigger
markets. (“Virtual Cities”)
- e.g. Joint R&D
Urban vehicles
Remanufacturing
Specialization
•
“Charter cities”
- e.g. Hong Kong, Singapore
Avoidance of Vicious Cycles
e.g., attraction – growth - disattraction
migration to city leads to:
• high real estate costs
• water & energy shortages
• environmental problems
e.g., Bangalore
7. Needed in order to Address
the Challenges
Two Key Integrations
„ A New Phase of Technology
„
Two Key Integrations
Reality
Knowledge, Judgment, Action
Human-centric & Social Sciences
SO
BIO
(Should we?)
MA
Science
Engineering
(Do we know?)
(Can we?)
A New Phase of Technology
Emblematic Examples:
SO
ENV
• Traditional Machines
• TECHNICAL
BIO
SO
MA
ENV
• TECHNOENVIRONMENTAL
BIO
• Green Buildings
MA
SO
ENV
• BIO-SOCIOTECHNICALENVIRONMENTAL
• High Performance
Buildings
BIO
MA
8. Overarching Answers
We Seek
„
„
„
„
„
„
„
Will urbanization abate?
Capacity of a world without cities to innovate,
to face disasters?
Are megacities inevitable? desirable?
Impacts of climate changes and tectonic risks
on cities?
Environmental, ecological, and social
impacts of dense cities versus spread out
cities?
The challenge of the suburbs
Future revolutions?
„
„
„
„
In agriculture
technology
public policy
“Charter cities” to improve poor economies?
Acknowledgments
Rose Emma
Dr. Barbara Kates-Garnick
Dr. Daniel Lebell
Prof. Michail Mesarovich