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The Quantitative Analysis of Regional Sustainable Development of Shandong Province Based on Ecological Footprint Model YI Dongfeng School of Economics, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, Yantai, Shandong, China, 264005 [email protected] Abstract: Ecological Footprint Model is a biophysical method adopted for quantitative assessment of the extent of the sustainable development, which is concise and comprehensive. By calculating the gap between human demands of ecological footprint and the ecological carrying capacity, we can quantitatively determine whether the regional development is within the scope of its ecological capacity so as to provide evidence for the evaluation of the regional sustainable development. Based on the introduction to ecological footprint and ecological capacity, the paper adopts the ecological footprint model to conduct the computational analysis of the ecological footprint in Shandong province in the year of 2008. The result of the analysis shows that the ecological deficit per capita of Shandong province in 2008 is 2.616hm2.cap-1, which greatly surpasses its ecological capacity, and result implies the lack of stamina for Shandong’s sustainable development. Finally, the paper puts forward some related methods for Shandong province to enhance its ecological capacity and realize its sustainable development. Keywords: Shandong province, ecological footprint, ecological capacity, sustainable development 1. Introduction 20th century is the era of rapid development of material civilization, however, the development is at cost of immense consumption of a variety of resources, especially non-renewable resources, widespread environmental pollution, and ecological imbalance. Rachel Carson firstly proposed the "sustainable development" concept in 1962, and "Our Common Future" was published in 1987. Since then, sustainable development changed from theory to practice as a new development concept and model. The sustainable development index system is basis for quantitative research of sustainable development. Foreign scholars have put forward a variety of framework models of index system. The concept of ecological footprint and its calculation model proposed by William Rees and Wackernagel focuses on the ecological concept of quantitative indicators of sustainable line, which gains more and more attentions because of its scientific, complete theoretical basis, clear conceptual framework, concise index system and the popularity of its methods. The paper describes the model and related content, and applies the model in the example of Shandong province, in which the paper makes analysis of the regional sustainable development and proposes related development policies against the problems. 2. Ecological footprint model and the basic calculation methods 2.1 The concept of ecological footprint Human must consume a variety of resources to maintain a certain quality of life. Each of the final consumption can be traced back to ecological productive land needed to provide production of the natural materials and energy. The ecological footprint refers to the area of the ecological productive land needed to maintain a certain level of material consumption under a certain conditions of population and economic scale. 2.2 Ecological Footprint Calculation Model Ecological footprint calculation is based on the following basic assumptions: (1) the vast majority of 158 human consumption of resources, energy and the amount of generated waste is determinable; (2) Most of these resources and waste can be converted to ecological production land area which is needed to provide and absorb the resources and waste; (3) Various sites are exclusive to each other and can be additive in space; (4) When the ecological productivity is used to measure land, the land between different regions can be expressed in the same unit; (5) The total ecological service supply capacity and the human system’s total demands for natural system can be compared. In the calculation of the ecological footprint, the various kinds resources and energy consumption amounts are converted into the areas of the six basic ecological productive land, namely, cultivated land, pasture, woodland, built land, sea (water), and other fossil energy land etc. n n EF = N × ef = N ∑ (a i ) = N ∑ (ci pi ) i =1 (i = 1,2,L , n) i =1 From the formula, we can see that ecological footprint is a function of population and material consumption per capita,and is the sum of ecological production area for each consumer good. As the six types of land differ in ecological productivity, their areas should be converted into the area with the same ecological productivity for better summing and comparison, during which process the conversion factor is used as equivalence factor. Equivalence factor for a certain ecological productive land area is equal to the average productivity of these lands divided by the total global average productivity of all types of global land. The equivalence factor adopted in the paper is from the WWF’ data in the traditional calculation, and the equivalence factors for various types of land are: 2.8 for arable land; 1.1 for forest; 0.5 for grassland; 2.8 for built-up land; 1.1 for fossil energy land and 0.2 for water. Ecological capacity refers to the supply amount of a region's ecological footprint, which amounts to the total area of the ecological productive land that a certain region can provide. As the productivities of the same type of bio-productive land are different in different countries and regions, the area of the same type of bio-productive land in different countries and regions can not be compared directly. Instead, the yield factor should be adopted to convert the same type of land in different countries or regions into the comparable area. Yield factor is a ratio of average productivity between a country or region’s certain type of land and the world’s. 6 6 EC = N ∑ ec = N ∑ (a ij × r j × γ j ) i =1 ( j = 1,2,L,6) i =1 2.3 Ecological Footprint Deficit/Surplus Make a comparison between them based on the calculation of the regional ecological footprint and ecological capacity, and then we can determine the sustainability of the land use in the region. When the ecological capacity is less than the ecological footprint of a region, the ecological footprint deficit appears, which equals to the amount that remains when ecological capacity is subtracted from the ecological footprint amount. The ecological deficit shows that the region's ecological load is beyond its ecological capacity, and the development model is in a relatively unsustainable state. And the size of deficit is a measure of the degree of the unsustainability. When the ecological capacity is greater than ecological footprint capacity, then there will be3 an ecological surplus, which is equal to the amount that remains when the ecological footprint is subtracted from ecological capacity. The surplus shows that the ecological capacity in the region is able to maintain its ecological load and the development pattern is relatively sustainable. Ecological Footprint Deficit = Ecological capacity—Ecological Footprint= EF—EC Ecological Footprint Surplus= Ecological Footprint—Ecological capacity= EC—EF 3. Ecological footprint calculation and analysis of Shandong province in 2008 Shandong province is located in the lower Yellow River in east China coast, situated between the 114 159 °36'-122°43 ' east longitude and 34°25'-38°23' north latitude, with the capital city of Jinan. The topography of Shandong province features mainly plains and hills, and the total area of plains and basins is about 97920 km2, which accounts for 64% of the total area of Shandong province. The area of hills is 53 397 km2, accounting for 34.9%, and the rivers and lakes with the total area of 683 km2, accounts for 1.1%. In 2008, Shandong province has the population of 94 172 300, 17districts and 140 counties, which made the GDP of 3107.21 billion yuan. The GDP per capita has risen by 11.4% to 33 083 yuan. Based on the concept of ecological footprint and its calculation model, this paper makes a computational analysis of the ecological footprint of Shandong province in 2008, according to the related data and statistics provided by Shandong Provincial Bureau of Statistics in 2009, FAO and WWF in 2008. The land yield factor used by Wackernagel in the global ecological footprint research is adopted in the calculation of ecological capacity: arable land and built-up land 1.66; forest 0.91; grassland 0.19 and water 1.0. In addition, in accordance with the proposition in the report “Our Common Future” of WCED, 12% should be deducted from the ecological capacity for the conservations area of biodiversity. Table 1 Ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Shandong province ecological footprint Ecological capacity Land Category Area hm2·cap-1 Equivalent Factor ecological footprint hm2·cap-1 Land Category Area hm2·cap-1 Yield Factor ecological capacity hm2·cap-1 Arable land 0.042 351 2.8 0.118 584 Arable land 0.122 820 1.66 0.570 866 Grassland 1.002 695 0.5 0.501 348 Grassland 0.000 361 0.19 3.428E-5 Forest 0.010 083 1.1 0.011 091 Forest 0.000 276 0.91 0.000 276 Fossil energy land 1.872 017 1.1 2.057 219 CO2 absorption 2.123E-07 0.91 2.126E-07 Water 2.674 141 0.2 0.534 828 Water 0.007 033 1.00 0.001 407 Built-up land 0.001 199 2.8 0.003 357 Built-up land 0.026 659 1.66 0.123 913 Total ecological footprint 3.228 427 Minus 12% for biodiversity 0.083 597 Total ecological capacity 0.612 916 Ecological Footprint Deficit/Surplus 4. -2.615 511 Results Analysis The calculation indicates that the ecological footprint per capita of Shandong province in 2008 is 3.228hm2·cap-1, and the ecological capacity per capita is 0.613 hm2·cap-1, so the ecological deficit is 2.616hm2.cap-1. The result shows that the ratio of between ecological footprint of Shandong province and ecological footprint of the country (1. 848 hm2·cap-1) is 1.75, and the ratio of between ecological footprint of Shandong province and ecological footprint of the global (2.3 hm2.cap-1) is 1.4 in 2008. Both at the national scale or global scale, Shandong province is in a state of unsustainable development. On the whole, in 2008, the ecological footprint per capita of Shandong province is 5.3 time of the ecological capacity per capita and the ecological deficit per capita is 4.3 times of the ecological capacity per capita, which shows that the relationship between people and land supply in Shandong province is tense and the human social and economic activities have imposed immense pressure on ecological system. Fossil energy consumption takes up a large proportion in the total ecological footprint, accounting for 63.8%, indicating that social and economic development in Shandong province rely too 160 much on the consumption of natural resources. The arable land takes up a proportion of 93.1% in the total ecological capacity, which reflects that the ecological footprint supply of Shandong Province depends on arable land very much. From the composition of the ecological deficit, the ecological deficit of various types of land have great differences, and the ecological deficit in order from large to little is: fossil energy land (-2.059 hm2.cap-1, accounting for 78.7%), water (-0.533 hm2.cap-1, 20.4%), pasture (-0.501hm2.cap-1, 19.2%), woodland (-0.011 hm2.cap-1, 0.4%), but the arable land and built-up land are still in surplus, ecological surplus is 0.452 hm2.cap-1 and 0.121 hm2.cap-1. The reason why fossil energy land has the biggest ecological deficit is in 2008 Shandong province had only 20 hectares of forest to absorb the CO2 from energy consumption, and coal consumption takes up a larger proportion in energy consumption structure; Grassland ecological deficit is mainly due to people’s increasing consumption and demands for animal products with the economic development; Waters ecological deficit is due to a large output of aquatic products, and the lower actual utilization. At the same time, we should see although there is a small surplus in ecological conditions of cropland in Shandong Province, it does not indicate that the cultivated area in Shandong province is very rich. In fact, the per capita cropland of Shandong province is only 0.16hm2.cap-1 in 2008. The ecological deficit showed that high energy consumption, overcrowding, decrease of arable land are the main reasons for high ecological deficit of Shandong province. 5. Measures to ease the state of unsustainable development in Shandong Province Through the above analysis, rapid economic development in Shandong province has brought huge environmental pressure, increasing population, increasing ecological footprint and ecological deficit. To improve its ecological capacity, reduce its ecological deficit, and regain its sustainable development, the government of Shandong province must develop such practical measures as follow: Energy conservation, new energy development. Industrial and port trade developed very well in Shandong province. Its large consumption of large coal and oil, renewable resources can greatly affect the sustainability of economic development and the environment, causing the energy consumption to account for more than half of ecological footprint. In view of the region's windy climate and coastal and other natural conditions, besides the use of energy conservation, some high and new technologies, such as solar, wind and tidal energy, should also be developed. The use of natural resources, new energy sources will reduce energy consumption share of the ecological footprint, which, at the same time, is conducive to environmental protection Use high-tech production technology and improve the biomass yield per unit of land. The ecological footprint of almost all the ecological productive lands is greater than the ecological capacity, which calls for reasonable development of land, especially the development of ecological agriculture to guarantee the sustainability of agricultural ecological economy. At the same time, the urban greening should be strengthened to protect the urban ecological environment. Adjust the industrial structure, improve resource utilization, and build resource-saving society. The water footprint of Shandong is high, so on one hand, we should develop the marine resources reasonably, improve the marine ecological benefits and develop marine ecological culture to satisfy human needs; on the other hand, we should develop the management technology for marine environment, strengthen marine pollution control, close and regulate the heavy polluted enterprises and establish a perfect supervising system for pollution discharge. Make a comprehensive use of economic, legal and scientific ways and take necessary administrative measures to enforce the environmental protections law so as to reduce the marine ecological footprint and boost the sustainable development of marine ecology and economy. Control population to an appropriate degree and reduce resource consumption. We should improve the population quality; enhance their production and consumption patterns, and promote sustainable lifestyles. From the lifestyle side, we should try to change the existing consumption patterns, build the concept of sustainable consumption and promote scientific, rational, ① ② ③ ④ 161 efficient use of various resources, which could reduce fossil energy consumption, thereby reducing the ecological footprint. We should also intensify the publicity on the protection of the environment, enhance public awareness of the ecological environment, mobilize the whole society to achieve sustainable development of resources, economy, environment and social in Shandong province. References [1]. Wackernagel, OnistoL, BelloP, et al. Ecological Footprint of nations. Toronto: International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, 1997. 12 - 25. [2]. Wackernagel M, Rees W. Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth. Gabriola Island: New Society Publishers, 1996, 61-83. [3]. HardiP, BargS, HodgeT, et al. Measuring sustainable development: Review of current practice. 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