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The Economics of Adjustment and Growth. Second Edition
Description:
This book provides a systematic and coherent framework for understanding the interactions between the
micro and macro dimensions of economic adjustment policies; that is, it explores short-run macroeconomic
management and structural adjustment policies aimed at promoting economic growth. It emphasizes the
importance of structural microeconomic characteristics in the transmission of policy shocks and the
response of the economy to adjustment policies. It has particular relevance to the economics of developing
countries.
The book is directed to economists interested in an overview of the economics of reform; economists in
international organizations, such as the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank, dealing with development; and
economists in developing countries. It is also a text for advanced undergraduate students pursuing a degree
in economic policy and management and students in political science and public policy.
Contents:
Acknowledgments
Introduction and Overview
1. BUDGET CONSTRAINTS AND AGGREGATE ACCOUNTS
1.1 Production, Income, and Expenditure
1.2 A Consistency Accounting Matrix
1.2.1 Current Account Transactions
1.2.2 Capital Account Transactions
1.3 Identities and Budget Constraints
1.3.1 Gross Domestic Product and Absorption
1.3.2 The Government Budget Constraint
1.3.3 The Private Sector Budget Constraint
1.3.4 The External Sector Budget Constraint
1.3.5 The Balance Sheet of the Financial System
1.3.6 The Savings-Investment Balance
1.4 Social Accounting Matrices
1.4.1 Activity, Commodity, and Factor Accounts
1.4.2 Institutions and the Capital Account
1.4.3 The Rest-of-the-World Account
1.4.4 SAMs and Economy-wide Models
1.5 Summary
2. CONSUMPTION, SAVING, AND INVESTMENT
2.1 Consumption and Saving
2.1.1 The Permanent Income Hypothesis
2.1.2 The Life-Cycle Model
The Basic Framework
Age and the Dependency Ratio
2.1.3 Other Determinants
Income Levels and Income Uncertainty
Intergenerational Links
Liquidity Constraints
Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability
Government Saving
Expectations, Taxation, and Debt
Social Security, Pensions, and Insurance
Changes in the Terms of Trade
Financial Deepening
Household and Corporate Saving
2.1.4 Empirical Evidence
2.2 Investment
2.2.1 The Flexible Accelerator
2.2.2 The User Cost of Capital
2.2.3 Uncertainty and Irreversibility
2.2.4 Other Determinants
Credit Rationing
Foreign Exchange Constraint
The Real Exchange Rate
Public Investment
Macroeconomic Instability
The Debt Burden Effect
2.2.5 Empirical Evidence
2.3 Summary
Appendix - Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving
3. FISCAL DEFICITS, PUBLIC DEBT, AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT
3.1 Structure of Public Finances
3.1.1 Conventional Sources of Revenue and Expenditure
3.1.2 Seigniorage and Inflationary Finance
3.1.3 Quasi-Fiscal Activities and Contingent Liabilities
3.2 The Government Budget Constraint
3.3 Assessing the Stance of Fiscal Policy
3.4 Deficit Rules, Budget Ceilings, and Fiscal Transparency
3.5 Fiscal Imbalances and External Deficits
3.6 Consistency and Sustainability
3.6.1 A Consistency Framework
3.6.2 Fiscal and External Sustainability
3.7 Sustainability and Solvency Constraints
3.8 Commodity Price Shocks and Deficits
3.9 Can Fiscal Austerity Be Expansionary?
3.10 Summary
4. THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND MONETARY POLICY
4.1 The Financial System
4.1.1 Financial Repression
4.1.2 Banks and Financial Intermediation
4.2 Money Demand
4.3 Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy
4.4 Credit Rationing
4.5 The Transmission of Monetary Policy
4.5.1 Interest Rate Effects
4.5.2 Exchange Rate Effects
4.5.3 Asset Prices and Balance Sheet Effects
Net Worth and the Finance Premium
The Financial Accelerator
4.5.4 Credit Availability Effects
4.5.5 The Role of Expectations
4.6 Monetary Policy: Inflation Targeting
4.6.1 Strict Inflation Targeting
4.6.2 Policy Trade-offs and Flexible Inflation Targeting
4.6.3 Comparison with Intermediate Target Strategies
Monetary vs. Inflation Targeting
Exchange Rate vs. Inflation Targeting
4.6.4 Requirements for Inflation Targeting
4.7 Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy
4.7.1 Persistence of Dollarization
4.7.2 Implications of Dollarization
4.8 Summary
Appendix - Inflation Targeting with Forward-Looking Expectations
5. EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
5.1 The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes
5.1.1 Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes
5.1.2 Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes
5.1.3 Band Regimes
5.1.4 Multiple Exchange Rate Regimes
5.2 Evidence on Exchange Rate Regimes
5.2.1 General Trends
5.2.2 Exchange Rate Bands
5.3 Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime
5.3.1 Some Conceptual Issues
5.3.2 The Evidence
5.3.3 A Practical Guide
5.4 Trade-offs and Exchange Rate Credibility
5.5 Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance
5.5.1 Measuring Competitiveness
5.5.2 Devaluation and the Trade Balance
5.6 Devaluation with Imported Inputs
5.7 Summary
6 INFLATION AND DISINFLATION PROGRAMS
6.1 Sources of Inflation
6.1.1 Hyperinflation and Chronic Inflation
6.1.2 Fiscal Deficits, Seigniorage, and Inflation
6.1.3 Other Sources of Chronic Inflation
Wage Inertia
Exchange Rates and the Terms of Trade
The Frequency of Price Adjustment
Food Prices
Time Inconsistency and the Inflation Bias
6.2 Nominal Anchors in Disinflation
6.2.1 Controllability and Effectiveness
6.2.2 Adjustment Paths and Relative Costs
6.2.3 Credibility, Fiscal Commitment, and Flexibility
6.2.4 The Flexibilization Stage
6.3 Disinflation: The Role of Credibility
6.3.1 Sources of Credibility Problems
6.3.2 Enhancing Credibility
Big Bang and Gradualism
Central Bank Independence
Price Controls
Aid as a Commitment Mechanism
6.4 Two Stabilization Experiments
6.4.1 Egypt, 1992-97
6.4.2 Uganda, 1987-95
6.5 Summary
Appendix - Inflation Persistence and Policy Credibility
7. CAPITAL INFLOWS: CAUSES AND POLICY RESPONSES
7.1 Capital Flows: Recent Evidence
7.2 How Volatile Are Capital Flows?
7.3 Domestic and External Factors
7.4 Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Inflows
7.5 External Shocks and Capital Flows
7.5.1 Households
7.5.2 Firms and the Labor Market
7.5.3 Commercial Banks
7.5.4 Government and the Central Bank
7.5.5 Equilibrium Conditions
The Money Market
The Credit Market
The Market for Home Goods
7.5.6 Graphical Solution
7.5.7 Rise in the World Interest Rate
7.6 Policy Responses to Capital Inflows
7.6.1 Sterilization
7.6.2 Exchange Rate Flexibility
7.6.3 Fiscal Adjustment
7.6.4 Capital Controls
Forms of Capital Controls
Pros and Cons of Capital Controls
7.6.5 Changes in Statutory Reserve Requirements
7.6.6 Other Policy Responses
7.7 Summary
Appendix - Measuring the Degree of Capital Mobility
8. FINANCIAL CRISES AND FINANCIAL VOLITILITY
8.1 Sources of Exchange Rate Crises
8.1.1 Inconsistent Fundamentals
8.1.2 Rational Policymakers and Self-Fulfilling Crises
8.1.3 Third-Generation Models
8.2 Currency Crises: Three Case Studies
8.2.1 The 1994 Crisis of the Mexican Peso
8.2.2 The 1997 Thai Baht Crisis
8.2.3 The 1999 Brazilian Real Crisis
8.3 Banking and Currency Crises
8.3.1 Causes of Banking Crises
8.3.2 Self-Fulfilling Bank Runs
8.3.3 Links between Currency and Banking Crises
8.3.4 Liquidity Crises in an Open Economy
8.4 Predicting Financial Crises
8.5 Financial Volatility: Sources and Effects
8.5.1 Volatility of Capital Flows
8.5.2 Herding Behavior and Contagion
8.5.3 The Tequila Effect and the Asia Crisis
8.6 Coping with Financial Volatility
8.6.1 Macroeconomic Discipline
8.6.2 Information Disclosure
8.6.3 The Tobin Tax
8.7 Summary
Appendix - The Mechanics of Speculative Attacks and Interest Rate Defense
9. POLICY TOOLS FOR MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
9.1 Assessing Business Cycle Regularities
9.2 Financial Programming
9.2.1 The Polak Model
9.2.2 An Extended Framework
9.3 The World Bank RMSM Model
9.4 The Merged Model and RMSM-X
9.4.1 The Merged IMF-World Bank Model 380
9.4.2 The RMSM-X Framework
9.5 Three-Gap Models
9.6 The 1-2-3 Model
9.6.1 The Minimal Setup
9.6.2 An Adverse Terms-of-Trade Shock
9.6.3 Investment, Saving, and the Government
9.7 Lags and the Adjustment Process
9.8 Summary
Appendix - Money Demand and Cointegration
10. GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY: SOME BASIC FACTS
10.1 A Long-Run Perspective
10.2 The Power of Compounding
10.2.1 Growth and Standards of Living
10.2.2 How Fast Do Economies Catch Up?
10.3 Some Basic Facts
10.3.1 Output Growth, Population, and Fertility
10.3.2 Saving, Investment, and Growth
10.3.3 Growth and Poverty
10.3.4 Inequality, Growth, and Development
The Kuznets Curve
Education and Income Distribution
10.3.5 Trade, Inflation, and Financial Deepening
10.4 Summary
Appendix - Common Measures of Poverty and Inequality
11. GROWTH AND TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESS: THE SOLOW-SWAN MODEL
11.1 Basic Structure and Assumptions
11.2 The Dynamics of Capital and Output
11.3 A Digression on Low-Income Traps
11.4 Population, Savings, and Output
11.5 The Speed of Adjustment
11.6 Model Predictions and Empirical Facts
11.7 Summary
Appendix - Dynamics of k, the Output Effect of s, and the Speed of Adjustment
12. KNOWLEDGE, HUMANCAPITAL, AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH
12.1 The Accumulation of Knowledge
12.1.1 Knowledge as a By-Product: Learning by Doing
12.1.2 The Production of Knowledge
12.2 Human Capital and Returns to Scale
12.2.1 The Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model
12.2.2 The AK Model
12.3 Human Capital and Public Policy
12.4 Other Determinants of Growth
12.4.1 Fiscal Policy
Government Spending
The Dual Effects of Taxation
Budget Deficits and Growth
12.4.2 Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability
12.4.3 Trade and International Financial Openness
12.4.4 Financial Development
12.4.5 Political Factors and Income Inequality
12.4.6 Institutions and the Allocation of Talent
12.5 Summary
Appendix - Determinants and Costs of Corruption
13. THE DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL OVERVIEW
13.1 Growth Accounting
13.2 The East Asian "Miracle"
13.3 Growth Regressions and Convergence
13.3.1 Diminishing Returns and Convergence
13.3.2 Convergence and Cross-Section Regressions
13.3.3 Testing the Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model
13.4 The Empirics of Growth
13.5 The Econometric Evidence: Overview
13.5.1 Saving and Physical and Human Capital
13.5.2 Fiscal Variables
13.5.3 Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability
13.5.4 Financial Factors
13.5.5 External Trade and Financial Openness
13.5.6 Political Variables and Income Inequality
14. TRADE AND LABOR MARKET REFORMS
14.1 Trade Liberalization
14.1.1 The Gains from Trade
14.1.2 Recent Evidence on Trade Reforms
14.1.3 Trade Reform, Employment, and Wage Inequality
14.1.4 Obstacles to Trade Reform
14.2 Trade and Regional Integration
14.3 Reforming Labor Markets
14.3.1 Labor Markets in Developing Countries
Basic Structure
Employment Distribution and Unemployment
Wage Formation and Labor Market Segmentation
Minimum Wages
Trade Unions and the Bargaining Process
14.3.2 Labor Market Reforms and Flexibility
14.4 Summary
Appendix - Reforming Price Incentives in Agriculture
15. FISCAL ADJUSTMENT AND FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORMS
15.1 Fiscal Adjustment
15.1.1 Reforming Tax Systems
The Excess Burden of Taxation
Fighting Tax Evasion
Guidelines for Reform
15.1.2 Expenditure Control and Management
15.1.3 Civil Service Reform
15.1.4 Fiscal Decentralization
15.2 Pension Reform
15.2.1 Basic Features of Pension Systems
15.2.2 Pension Regimes and Saving: A Framework
15.2.3 Recent Evidence on Pension Reform
15.3 Interest Rate Liberalization
15.3.1 A Simple Framework
15.3.2 Potential Pitfalls
15.4 Sources of Financial Fragility
15.4.1 The Nature of Banks' Balance Sheets
15.4.2 Microeconomic and Institutional Failings
15.4.3 Moral Hazard and Perverse Incentives
15.4.4 Macroeconomic Instability
15.4.5 Premature Financial Liberalization
15.5 Strengthening Financial Systems
15.6 Summary
Appendix - Structural Policy Indices
16. AID, EXTERNAL DEBT, AND GROWTH
16.1 The Effects of Foreign Aid
16.1.1 Aid Effectiveness and the Fungibility Problem
16.1.2 Aid, Investment, and Growth
The Situation without Aid
The Effects of Aid on Investment
16.1.3 Aid and Growth: Cross-Country Evidence
16.2 Growth, Debt, and Fiscal Adjustment
16.3 The Debt Overhang and the Debt Laffer Curve
16.4 Measuring the Debt Burden
16.4.1 Conventional and Present Value Indicators
16.4.2 Sustainability and External Solvency
16.5 Debt Rescheduling and Debt Relief
16.6 Summary
Appendix - The Theory of Stages in the Balance of Payments
17. SEQUENCING, GRADUALISM, AND THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF ADJUSTMENT
17.1 Stabilization and Structural Adjustment
17.2 The Order of Liberalization
17.2.1 Liberalization of External Accounts
17.2.2 Financial Reform and the Capital Account
17.2.3 A Formal Framework
Analysis of Liberalization Policies
Financial Deregulation
Relaxation of Capital Controls
Trade Liberalization
17.3 Sequencing and Labor Market Reforms
17.4 Political Constraints and Reforms
17.4.1 Modeling Political Conflict
17.4.2 The Benefits of Crises
17.4.3 Political Acceptability and Sustainability
17.5 Shock Treatment or Gradual Approach?
17.6 Summary
Appendix - Calculating the Welfare Effects of Reform
References
Figure Credits
Index
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