Download The Transition to Low Carbon Economy Under Energy and

The Transition to Low Carbon Economy Under Energy and
Environmental Challenges in China
SHEN Yajun1, WANG Ning2, YANG Fengli3
1. China Canada Higher Applied Technology College, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology,
P.R.China, 264005
2. College of Information and Electronic Engineering, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology,
P.R.China, 264005
3. School of Public Management, Shandong Institute of Business and Technology, P.R.China, 264005
Abstract: Nowadays, China’s rapid economic growth has leading to large increases in energy demand,
as well as high emissions of both local air pollutants and carbon dioxide (CO2) during energy
consumption. But securing enough energy to sustain economic growth is always a priority for China.
How to change the dependence on carbon intensive energy systems, infrastructure and social economic
structures is more important to achieve economic development targets. This paper analyses China’s
energy and environmental challenges, and illustrates a framework for the transition to a low carbon,
environmentally friendly, sustainable economic future through changing economic growth and primary
energy demand structure, developing renewable energy sources of transport and households, changing
current industrial structure.
Keywords: Economic growth, Low carbon, Energy demand, Energy efficiency
1.
Introduction
Since its open-door policy and economic reforms in late 1978, China’s economy is growing rapidly,
with nearly 10% GDP growth per year over the last two decades. At the same time, economic expansion
is leading to large increases in energy demand. Fossil fuels, the primary source of world energy, are the
greatest source of ambient air pollution, producing particulate matter, nitrogen oxides (NO2) and sulfur
oxides (SO2). These pollutants have been related with increased mortality and morbidity from cardio
respiratory diseases [1]. The burning of fossil fuels is also the major source of carbon dioxide (CO2), and
a primary contributor to global warming [2]. Coal continues to dominate China’s energy system,
accounting for around two-thirds of primary energy demand of China’s nearly 800GW of power
generation capacity in 2008, and three quarters was coal fired. Imported oil is also increasing sharply to
comprise over 50% of total oil consumption—up from 29% in 2000. The relatively poor energy
technology currently in use in China has caused high emissions of both local air pollutants and CO2
during energy consumption. With the high speed of economic growth, energy demand will increase
concomitantly with economic development. Clearly, today's decisions regarding energy policies in
China will have a significant effect on future CO2 emission, air pollution and the health status of local
people.
These trends lead to a number of pressing challenges. So, more attention is being given to address the
environmental impacts of economic development and energy consumption although securing enough
energy to sustain economic growth is always a priority for the Chinese government. China is now the
world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2), while China is also particularly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change. The Chinese government has recently implemented intensive measures and
ambitious targets to reduce China’s reliance on fossil fuels and to mitigate the impacts of rapid
economic growth. Against this background, it is important to assess possible energy futures for China,
and to evaluate the scope for mitigating CO2 emissions while achieving economic development targets.
A key question to be answered is whether China can avoid the problem of ‘carbon lock-in’ that is now
faced by most developed countries [3]. This is characterized by dependence on carbon intensive energy
systems, infrastructure and social economic structures that are difficult to change.
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There is a wide ranging debate with in China about future emissions pathways [4, 5, and 6]. For example, the
latest report from a collaboration of some of China’s main energy policy think-tanks explores the
possibility of China peaking CO2 emissions by 2030 and return to its 2005 level by 2050[7]. This paper
would made efforts to explore a variety of alternative development futures and the pathways that China
should follow over the coming decades to continue with in an emissions constraint while achieve its
economic development targets.
2.
China’s Energy and Environmental Challenges
The International Energy Agency estimates that China and India alone could contribute 51% of the
incremental world primary energy demand in the period to 2030, despite a global economic slow down
in 2008[8]. In China, quick expansion of heavy industries such as iron and steel and rapid urbanization
have led to accelerating energy demand growth since 2000. Between 2003 and 2005, this led to an
unusual increase in energy intensity, reversed the previous falling trend [9]. China now accounts for more
than 16% of global primary energy demand with an over 55% increase in primary energy demand
between 2000 and 2005, and is believed to have over taken the United States as the world largest energy
consumer in 2006.
China’s energy demand is not increasing in a sustainable way. Much of this increase is being met by
increased production of domestic coal, with severe environmental and health impacts from extraction to
consumption. The large expansion of coal use is partly due to the pursuit of energy self-sufficiency but
also because of the cheap and vast abundant coal in China. This history of unsustainable development
has induced severe environmental problems. Energy and water shortages, water and air pollution,
cropland and biodiversity loss have all been severe and escalating problems as economic growth
continues. China’s coal based energy system has led to a number of challenges which could jeopardize
China’s future economic growth. Sculpture dioxide, of which 90% is caused by coal combustion, now
results in acid rain falling on more than 30% of China’s total land. Sixteen Chinese cities are ranked
among the most polluted 20 cities in the world, mostly due to the production and use of coal. The World
Bank estimates around 400,000 people in China die each year from air pollution-related illnesses,
mainly lung and heart diseases.
The environmental impacts of China’s economic growth can also be felt beyond the border of China.
China’s carbon emissions had increased by over 50% between 2000 and 2005. It is therefore not
surprising that there is call for China to take more responsibility for mitigation in a post-2012
international climate agreement. However, there are important caveats to such national statistics. China’s
average CO2 emission is significantly below most OECD countries. Further-more, China’s cumulative
historical emissions between 1850 and 2000 were just 7% of the global total, far behind US and EU
which account almost 30% [10]. So, China is one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse
consequences of climate change. This has been emphasized as a real concern in the first National
Assessment Report on Climate Change and China’s National Climate Change Programmed. With only
one third of the world’s average land availability per capita and 27% of the world’s average water
resources per capita, the availability of cropland and water resources will be pressing concerns for
China’s sustainable agricultural development. Climate Change may cause up to a 40% reduction in
cereal production if proper adaptation is not taken [11, 12]. The total area of China’s western glaciers will
shrink by over 27%, threatening long term water supply of several most populate driver basins in the
world.
3.
The Transition Pathways to Low Carbon Emissions
Based on the discussion of China’s energy and environmental challenges as above, this paper provides a
comparative picture of the different low carbon development pathways that China might take to
rebalance the sources of China’s economic growth.
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3.1 Changing economic growth and structure
The economy is driven by the progress of science and technology, changes in industrial structure and
social preferences in the future. In common with many major developed countries today, services and
commerce will eventually become the largest economic sector, accounting for between 60% and 80% of
GDP, so the high technology and valued added industry and the energy industry that mainly involves
electricity generation and oil and gas drillings. The heavy industry includes iron and steel,
petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals and minerals etc., while the conventional industry includes
manufacturing industries that are not energy intensive nor high value-added. Service and high
technology and valued added industries are the sectors that would enjoy the largest growth from now to
2050[3]. This reflects some consideration that given relative size of China, it is possible that China will
be unable to largely rely on outsourcing of manufacturing to other less developed countries in the future,
or at least not as much as the current OECD countries have outsourced to China.
3.2 Transition of primary energy demand and structure
Power generation is the sector developing fastest in China since 2000. The power generation sector in
China continues to grow rapidly. Although largely dominated by coal, there is a great deal of room for
renewable sources of electricity to grow. But this paper suggests that China should focus on the
deployment of renewable and policies to support the growth of renewable energy industries should be
continued and strengthened if ambitious renewable development is desired. The renewable energy (e.g.
wind, solar, hydro and biomass) will play a much bigger role in China’s energy system and a more
diverse energy structure in 2050. Wind power will increase at about 10% each year between 2010 and
2050, and solar PV will increase by 16% per year.
China’s coal fired power capacity already reached 600 GW in the end of 2008; but a large amount of
coal and gas powered generation has to be equipped with carbon capture and storage so that the carbon
emissions can be abated to comply with the emissions budget [3]. As a result, the carbon capture and
storage has to be installed in 80% and 90% of the fossil fuel power plants by 2050. Coal will reduce
from more than 60% in 2005 to around 30% in 2030, while oil and gas continue their steady growth in
the energy mix. With respect to carbon capture and storage, Chinese power companies have
understandably been cautious. Integrated carbon capture and storage systems have not been deployed
anywhere in the world at full scale. The carbon capture and storage systems will impose significant
energy penalties at plants where they are installed. For a developing country like China, such penalties
mean that valuable power is not an available to help meet demand which is growing rapidly. However,
this does not mean that Chinese power companies should wait to demonstrate the carbon capture and
storage on coal fired power plants. For example, the EU-China’s near zero emissions from coal
feasibility study is a start.
So, there are strong reasons to make international financial assistance available for a full scale
demonstration of carbon capture and storage in China, at the same time as the demonstrations planned in
many OECD countries over the next few years. Without the carbon capture and storage as an option, it
will prove much more difficult for China to develop within a carbon budget. In contrast to the carbon
capture and storage, nuclear power has a less prominent role, but has the most diverse picture.
3.3 Developing renewable energy sources for transport and households
China’s transport in general is still well behind the level of developed economies. Even for the fast
growing private car ownership, the national average is only 17 cars per 1000 people in 2005 compared
with over 700 cars in the United States and 400 to 550 cars in European countries in 2004[13]. China also
has much less extensive railway in restructure despite the recent huge investments. Totaled at 75,438 km
in 2007, China’s railway length is only one third of that in the European Union or United States.
Therefore, there is unsurprisingly significant growth in almost all modes of transportation in the further.
Transport has been a particularly rapid source of energy demand growth in China in recent years. So, it
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should develop significant efficiency improvements, modal shifts and switches to biofuels and electric
vehicles.
As for the household, coal still persists as an important fuel source in household energy use despite its
use having been banned in many cities in China. Grid electricity has increased exponentially over the
last two decades with deepening electrical appliance ownership in Chinese households. The rising
number of air conditioners in coastal areas was partly responsible for the electricity shortages in 2004
and in subsequent summers.
At the same time, other renewable energy sources including solar water heaters, small scale
off-grid/communal combined heat and power, advanced biomass and biogas use, advanced roof-top
solar PV panels and wind turbines are all developing quickly. As a result, the micro renewable energy
use will increase in the first two decades from now to 2030.
3.4 Changing the structural of industry
Industry is currently the largest sect oral energy consumer in China; therefore, its structural change has
very significant implications for China’s future energy consumption and consequent carbon emissions.
Now, the heavy industries account for nearly 60% of total industrial energy demand, while industry as a
whole accounts for more than two-thirds of China’s total energy demand. In 2005, the majority of
energy is consumed by heavy industry, followed by the energy industry and conventional industry.
Heavy industry is still dominant in the industrial energy demand in these two decades, but the high
technology and valued added industry will increase to account for nearly half of the total industrial
energy demand by 2050. But these trends occur against a background in which the share of energy
demand consumed by industry is declining, while energy consumption from households and
transportation grows much faster. By 2050, the household and transportation sectors will both account
for 30–35% of total final energy consumption, similar to the share of industry. This will be a similar
energy consumption structure to current OECD countries.
4.
Conclusion
As stated above, China needs to transform its economy to effectively address concern about a range of
environmental problems from burning fossil fuels and steeply rising oil import and international
pressure on it to exhibit greater ambition in fighting global climate change. China already has ambitious
targets for improving the efficiency of its economy. Specific energy efficiency measures have also been
proposed or implemented in buildings, industry and transport. But how to change the dependence on
carbon intensive energy systems, infrastructure and social economic structures is more important to
achieve economic development targets while eventually reduce its emissions.
Based on these discussions, this paper has shown some of the ways in which China could slow its
emissions growth over the medium term, and eventually reduce its emissions as well as achieve the
transition to a low carbon, environmentally friendly, sustainable economic future through changing
economic growth and primary energy demand structure, developing renewable energy sources of
transport and households, changing current industrial structure.
：
Acknowledgements
This paper is sponsored by the projects of Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the
People’s Republic of China(No. 2010-R5-12) and (No. 2010-R3-7) and Shandong higher education
institution science research planning project (No. J09WH13)
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