Download Recent energy efficiency trends in LACs

Recent energy efficiency trends in LACs
Synthesis of results from The BIEE project
Dr Didier Bosseboeuf (ADEME, France)
Bruno Lapillonne, Scientific Director, Enerdata
Nehir Samci, Enerdata
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
GDP and energy consumption
4%
• BIEE countries accounts for 96%
of the consumption of Latin
American countries (around 800
Mtoe in 2012) and around 99%
of the GDP of the region.
1%
34%
34%
30% 33%
GDP*
10%
10%
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Rest of the BIEE countries
Others
• Brazil, Mexico and Argentina
represents around 2/3 of the
energy consumption of the
region (respectively 34%, 23%
and 10% in 2012).
21%
23%
Consumption
*GDP in purchasing power parities
Source : Enerdata Global Energy Database
%/year
• The primary energy intensity has been decreasing in all countries
• The reduction has been particularly rapid in the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, El
Salvador and Panama.
• The reduction was on the other hand quite moderate in Brazil, Ecuador and
Uruguay.
• The reduction has been faster since 2008 in Argentina, Costa Rica, Brazil and
Uruguay.
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Primary energy intensity trends (%/year)
2000-2012
2000-2008
2008-2012
Source : BIEE Cepal
4
Paraguay, that is a large user of biomass with a low efficiency, has the highest
energy intensities at ppp.
• It is followed by Chile, Mexico and Brazil, that have a large energy intensive
industrial sector.
• Panama and Costa Rica are the countries with the lowest primary energy intensity
•
Primary intensity at purchasing power parities (ppp) (2012)
0.20
koe/€2000p
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Source : BIEE Cepal
5
• Final intensity is decreasing in most countries, with a rather rapid reduction in
Dominican Republic (by 4%/year), Nicaragua and Paraguay (over 2%/year)
• On the opposite, it has been increasing slightly in Uruguay
• In Nicaragua, Paraguay, and Chile, the final intensity decreased more rapidly than
the primary intensity: energy productivity improved faster for final consumers, due
to increased losses in power generation (linked to changes in power mix and to the
rapid growth of electricity demand at end-use level).
• For Panama, Mexico and, to a lesser extent Uruguay, this was the reverse.
Trends in primary and final energy intensity (2000-2012)
2%
1%
%year
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Primary
Final
Transformations
Source : BIEE Cepal
6
• In Argentina, Costa Rica, Mexico, Uruguay and Chile structural changes in the GDP
to less energy intensive sectors (mainly services) contributed to decrease the final
energy intensity. The share of services in the GDP increased by 5 points in Costa
Rica and Chile and by 4 points in Mexico between 2000 and 2012.
• In Paragua, 2/3 of the decrease in the final intensity is explained by structural
changes; Brazil almost all the gains are due to structural changes.
• In Ecuador and El Salvador there was a reverse trend, with structural changes
contributing to raise the final intensity.
1%
Impact of structural changes in the GDP on the final intensity (2000-2012)
0%
%/year
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Observed
At constant structure
Structural changes
Source : BIEE Cepal
7
• The avoided primary energy consumption, due the decrease in the primary energy
intensity, reached 62 Mtoe in 2013, which represents 7% of the primary energy
consumption.
• This is somehow less important than in other world region.
• This avoided consumption is mainly visible since 2004.
Mtoe
Primary consumption and avoided primary consumption (Latin America)
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2002
2004
Consumption
2006
2008
2010
2012
Avoided consumption
Source : BIEE Cepal
8
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
• Paraguay , Costa Rica and Brazil are the countries with the highest efficiency for power
generation (above 90% ), because of the high share of renewables (with 100%
efficiency) in the power mix .
• The countries with the highest progression are Nicaragua, Dominican Republic,
Panama and El Salvador (+11 points for Nicaragua and +6 points for the others).
• The significant increases are explained by the sharp increase in the share of
renewables (+ 18 points in Nicaragua) and the rapid diffusion of gas combined cycles.
• It decreased in several countries especially in Uruguay (by -20 points) , Ecuador (-13),
Chile (-9), because of a reduction in the share of renewables (-29 points in Uruguay , 18 points in Ecuador and -16 points in Chile.
Efficiency of power generation
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%
2000
2012
Source : BIEE Cepal
10
• Argentina and Nicaragua are the countries with the most efficient thermal
generation (48% and 44% respectively).
• Bolivia, The Dominican Rep has the lowest thermal power plant efficiency
at about 30%.
• The efficiency of thermal power plants improved the most in Costa Rica,
Uruguay, and Brazil.
Efficiency of thermal power generation
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
%
2000
2012
Source : BIEE Cepal
11
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
• The average unit consumption per household varies quite a lot among BIEE countries, from
0.26 toe in Bolivia, to around 1 toe in Nicaragua and 1.15 toe in Argentina and Chile .
• In Argentina and Chile the high value is due the heating needs which does not exist in all
the other countries, except in Mexico; the high value in Nicaragua is linked to the large use
of biomass for cooking .
• Between 2000 and 2012, this specific consumption has increased in Uruguay, Panama and
Argentina (by about 1.5%/year), while it has been decreasing in all the other countries
mainly due to the substitution of biomass by electricity.
1.4
3%
1.2
2%
1.0
1%
0.8
0%
0.6
-1%
0.4
-2%
0.2
-3%
0.0
-4%
Source : BIEE Cepal
%/yr (2000-2012)
toe per household (2012)
Total unit consumption per household
13
• The average electricity consumption per household (ratio between the electricity
consumption of households and the number of households), varies significantly
among BIEE countries, from 850 kWh per household in Bolivia, to 1670 kWh in
Mexico, 3000 kWh in Argentina.
• The electricity consumption per household is increasing significantly in Nicaragua
and Uruguay (over 4%/ year and 5%/ year) and in other countries (1-3%/year) due
to a growth in equipment rate (refrigerators, TV, ICT, air conditioning, water
heater) and electrification except Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Brazil.
3,500
6%
3,000
5%
2,500
4%
2,000
3%
1,500
2%
1,000
1%
500
0%
0
%/yr (2000-2012)
kWh/household (2012)
Unit consumption of electricity per household
-1%
Source : BIEE Cepal
14
• Per electrified household, the electricity consumption increased less rapidly than per
household, due to the electrification of rural households.
• The electrification rate has a strong increase in Nicaragua by more than 3%/year
between 2000 and 2012; this is the main reason of the growth in electricity
consumption per household from 2000 to 2012
• The same pattern of trends is obvious in all four countries with increasing
electrification rates; only the level of growth is different.
Unit electricity consumption : effect of household electrification
5%
Electricity consumption per household
Electricity consumption per electrified household
%/year (2000-2012)
4%
Electrification effect
3%
2%
1%
0%
Paraguay
El Salvador
Bolivia
Source : BIEE Cepal
Nicaragua
15
Apart from countries with space heating needs (Chile, Argentina,
and to a lower extent Uruguay and Paraguay ), cooking is the
dominant end use.
Energy consumption per dwelling (2000,2012)
1.4
1.2
Space heating
Cooking
Water heating
Air cooling
Electrical Appliances & lighting
toe/household
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Water heating included with electrical appliances for Dominican Rep and El Salvado
Cooling included with electrical appliances for Paraguay, Dominican Rep and El Salvador.
Source : BIEE Cepal
16
• In all countries, the energy consumption per dwelling for cooking decreased.
• Different trends between the specific consumption in final and useful energy are
explained by fuel substitution.
• The substitution effect was the greatest in Salvador and Paraguay: substitutions from
biomass to LPG in Salvador and to electricity in Paraguay contributed to decrease the
specific consumption by more than 3%/year.
Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: effect of substitution
5%
%/year (2000-2012)
Final energy
Useful energy
Substitutions
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
Substitution effect = difference in variation of final and useful energy; useful energy calculated by
multiplying final energy by end-use efficiency (5% efficiency for wood,; 45% for LPG)
17
Solar water heater (SWH) equipment rates: Brazil
 Diffusion of SWH during period 2005-2012 from 1.3% to 3.5% of households;
 Increase of installed area from around 10 to 35 m2/ 1.000 inhab.
766 GWh
(avoided consumption)
40
4.00
35
3.50
30
3.00
25
2.50
20
2.00
15
1.50
10
1.00
5
0.50
-
0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
Installed m²/1.000 inhabitants
2009
2010
2011
2012
% household with SWH
Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA)
*% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar
panel per dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /); avoided consumption= production of solar heat (calculated 18
from the installed area of solar water heaters multiplied by the average solar output per m2) .
Solar water heaters
 Diffusion of solar water heaters from almost 0% to 1.2% of households in Uruguay
and from 1.3% to 3.5% in Brazil between 2005 and 2012.
 Installed area of 30 and 35 m2/ 1.000 inhabitant respectively , compared to 400 in
Greece and 800 in Cyprus
100
4.0%
90
3.5%
80
3.0%
70
60
2.5%
50
2.0%
40
1.5%
30
1.0%
20
10
0.5%
0
0.0%
2004
2012
Installed m²/1.000 inhab. (Uruguay)
Installed m²/1000 inhab. (Brazil)
% of households with SWH (Uruguay)
% of households with SWH (Brazil)
*% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar panel per 19
dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /)
Most of the electricity used by households is for appliances, such as refrig
Water heating has also a significant share in Uruguay and Paraguay.
The share of cooling is low but developing rapidly.
Electricity consumption per end -use
kWh/electrified household
3500
3000
2500
Cooling
Lighting
Electrical appliances
Cooking
Water heating
Space heating
2000
1500
1000
500
0
El Salvador Dominican Rep.
Chile
Brazil
Paraguay
Argentina
Note: Electrical appliances includes cooling for Dominican Rep. ; cooling and lighting for Paraguay
Uruguay
20
Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation :
case of refrigerators in Brazil
The increased number of households contributed to raise the consumption by 2805
GWh (“demographic effect” ).
Progression in the diffusion of the equipment contributed to a further 2180 GWh
increase.
However, the consumption of refrigerators only increased by 3665 GWh and not by
5985 GWh as energy savings contributed lower the consumption by 1320 GWh.
Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for refrigerators in Brazil (2005-2012)
4,000
3,000
GWh
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
Consumption
variation
Demographic
effect
Equipment
ownership effect
Energy savings
effect
Source: EPE
21
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
• In most countries transport consumption grew less rapidly than GDP from 2000
to 2012, especially in Dominican Republic, Chile and Argentina, and to a lesser
extent in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Bolivia and Uruguay.
• In Paraguay, Panama, Brazil and Ecuador there was a reverse trend.
• The intensity of transport (i.e. the energy consumption per unit of GDP) has
decreased dramatically in Dominican Republic (-5%/year)
Trends in transport consumption, GDP and transport intensity (2000 -2012)
9%
7%
Consumption
GDP
Intensities
% per year
5%
3%
1%
-1%
-3%
-5%
Source : BIEE Cepal
23
• Road transport shares according to type of vehicles shows strong variance in
BIEE countries; in each country the share of transport by car is at least 20%
with highest in Uruguay (69% in 2012).
• In Nicaragua and Mexico, transport by light duty vehicles has an important
share (more than 55%).
Road energy consumption by type of vehicles (2000, 2012)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Cars
Trucks
Note: Trucks for Uruguay includes light duty vehicles
Light duty vehicles
Source : BIEE Cepal
Bus
24
• The unit consumption of road transport per vehicle decreased in all countries.
• The difference between the energy consumption of road transport per vehicle car and per
car equivalent corresponds to the effect of changes in the composition of vehicle stock.
• Energy efficiency improvements can be better evaluated with the variation of the unit
consumption per car-equivalent, as it is cleaned from changes in the vehicle fleet.
• El Salvador, Chile and Bolivia had the highest energy efficiency improvements.
Trends in road transport consumption (2000-2012, %/year)
Unit consumption per vehicle
Unit consumption per car-equivalent
Effect of change in vehicle'stock composition
3%
2%
1%
%/year
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
El Salvador
Chile
Costa Rica
Uruguay
Argentina
Source : BIEE Cepal
Bolivia
Nicaragua
25
• The unit consumption of air transport (defined as a ratio between the energy
consumption and the number of passengers carried) tends to decrease in most
countries, mainly due technical progress with new aircrafts except in Argentina,
El Salvador and Paraguay
Energy consumption of air transport per passenger (toe/passenger)
0.12
2000
2012
koe per passenger
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
Source : BIEE Cepal
26
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
• The energy intensity of industry, calculated as the ratio between the energy
consumption and the value added, decreased in six countries (by more than 5%/year in
Nicaragua and about 3%/year in Argentina, between 0.2 and 2%/year in all the rest)
• In Uruguay, the intensity has been increasing (very rapidly by 8%/year), due to a new
large pulp and paper factory coupled with a chemical complex.
% per year
Energy intensity trends in industry (%/year, 2000-2012)
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Consumption
Source : BIEE Cepal
Value added
Intensities
28
• In Brazil and Uruguay structural changes towards more energy intensive
branches contributed to increase the energy intensity of industry.
• In the other countries there were structural changes to less intensive branches
which contributed to decrease the intensity.
Structural effect in manufacturing intensity (%/year; 2000-2012)
6%
Observed
5%
Constant structure
4%
Stuctural changes
% per year
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
Brazil
Uruguay
Mexico
El Salvador
Panama
Costa Rica
29
• Brazil, Chile, Mexico and El Salvador have similar trend as European countries.
• The increasing trend in some countries, such as Spain and Portugal is due to
the strong industrial recession.
• Latin American countries are well positioned in terms of performance
Trends in specific consumption of cement industry (2000,2012)
0.14
2000
2012
0.12
toe per tonne
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
30
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
• The share of the commercial sector in total consumption of
services vary between 66% and 90%.
Energy consumption of services by branch (2012)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
66%
67%
73%
76%
79%
82%
85%
89%
27%
24%
21%
18%
15%
11%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
34%
33%
0%
Public sector
Commercial sector
Source : BIEE Cepal
32
• The trends in energy intensity of services vary significantly across BIEE countries
from around -2.5%/yr in Panama to 3.4%/yr in Bolivia for total consumption.
• Electricity intensity increased in most of the countries except in Panama, Brazil,
Mexico and Nicaragua.
Trends in energy intensity of services (2000-2012)
4%
Total
Electricity
3%
%/year
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
Source : BIEE Cepal
33
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Macro
Power sector
Households
Transport
Industry
Services
Agriculture
• The share of agriculture in the final energy consumption is less than 4% in
most countries; it has the highest value in Argentina and Uruguay (around 8%)
• No relevant patter of increase or decrease for the all BIEE region; the rate of
change between the value in 2000 and 2012 is between 1-4%.
Share of agriculture in final energy consumption
9%
8%
2000
2012
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source : BIEE Cepal
35
• The intensity is high in the countries with high share of agriculture in the GDP –
Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and El Salvador with around or more than 0,10
koe/€2000 ppp
• The intensity level is similar in all the other countries with around and less than
0,03 koe/€2000 ppp
Energy intensity of agriculture (2012)
0.18
koe/€2000 ppp
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
Ecuador
Panama
Costa Rica
Nicaragua
Paraguay
El Salvador
Dominican Rep.
Bolivia
Brazil
Mexico
Uruguay
Argentina
Source : BIEE Cepal
36
Energy consumption of agriculture per hectare
0.09
0.08
0.07
toe/hectare
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
Ecuador
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Uruguay
37
Contribution of energy efficiency evaluation
to climate change strategy
VI energy efficiency dialogue in LACs & Carribeans countries
Energy efficiency as state policy
Aruba 29& 30 October
Dr Didier Bosseboeuf (ADEME, France)
4th Seminar of the African Energy Information System and Database:
Energy Efficiency Indicators (Nairobi, 3-6th Nov. 2015)
Many international african organisations are developping EEIs
(RCREEE; ECREEE; CAPP; EEEO/WAPP; SAPP; EAPP; MEDENER, IFDD etc.)






Building a network among energy databases providers
Identification of networking modalities (people, communication, etc.)
Synergy between AFREC’s System and existing African energy databases
Strategy for training AFREC’s National Focal Points
Establishment of national energy databases
Modalities for technical assistance and capacity building
Contribution of energy efficiency policies
evaluation to climate change strategies
Contribution of energy efficiency evaluation to climate change
strategy:
Rationale
 Energy efficiency is now a reality and have reached the top of the
agenda : the first fuel
 Who wants to address policies implementation, public budget,
target setting issues needs to rely on monitoring
 Needs to evaluate energy efficiency policies (BU) but also to have
a more global perspective of energy efficiency policy impact (TD
energy efficiency indicators)
 Need to have a detailed monitoring system be able to disseminate
aggregated information
 National monitoring should be complemented by international
benchmarks
Contribution of energy efficiency evaluation to climate
change strategy:
Objectives
1. Benchmarking on energy efficiency is very relevant to get and
exchange information on policies.
2. To demonstrate that EEIs are workable and that it provides
valuable feedback for each of the participating countries.
3. To demonstrate that there exist strong existing practices and
experiences on monitoring energy efficiency policies at
detailed level and sometimes even in an harmonized way
across countries.
4. To demonstrate that this experience in EE monitoring could
be useful for monitoring climate change strategies.
Contribution of energy efficiency evaluation to climate change strategy:
The LACs speakers
1. The need for exchange of information on energy efficiency Lacs
experience – Ricardo Sanchez (Acting Director UN ECLAC, Chile)
2. EE Monitoring in the new transition law in Mexico and link with
existing NAMAs - Juan Navarrete (Director, CONUEE, Mexico)
3. The BIEE project in Latin America - Dr Andres Schuschny (Senior
Project Manager UN-CEPAL, Chile)
4. Monitoring energy efficiency in building sector in Brazil - Ricardo
Gorini (Director energy economics and environmental studies EPE,
Brazil)
5. Monitoring energy efficiency trends and policies in Ecuador –
Eduardo Noboa, Director INER, Equator)
6. Monitoring energy efficiency policies Uruguay - Mrs Carolina Mena
(MIEMDNE, Uruguay)
Contribution of energy efficiency evaluation to climate change
strategy:
Some conclusions
 Strong an opportunity with the change of paradigm of the UNFCCC
reporting under negotiation to introduce some of our EE knowledge on
monitoring.
 Energy efficiency indicators based methods are now really spread over the
world both through regional institutions or initiatives and at national level.
 The community of reporting and evaluators on EE and climate changes are
not talking enough together.
 To organise extra works on the correlation or inter-relationship or
coordination between the EE, RES and CO2 targets reporting and
achievements.
 To discuss the issue of policy energy saving attribution to policies.
 TD evaluators from emerging countries are also claiming to complement
this approach with BU evaluations but they don't know how to do it.