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Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change
in Sub-Saharan Africa
Authors
Aziza Kibonge
Email: [email protected]
Poster prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association 2010
AAEA, CAES, & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, July 25-27, 2010.
Copyright 2010 by Aziza Kibonge. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for noncommercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
AZIZA KIBONGE
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Objectives
• Obtain measures of agricultural
productivity covering 46 countries in SAA.
• Examine the potential role of some
factors (including irrigation and drought)
in explaining the difference in countries
performances.
-
Data
Parametric Stochastic Translog Production Frontier;
5
5 5
5
1
1
5
5
5
2
2
1
1
a b 
bj xijt  cxc2jj xjj  c c jkxxijtxxikt  bbt tt  bbtt t t 2 b jtbxijtxt tit 
ln Yit lnaYoit 
x



j ijt
jj jj
jk ijt ikt
t
tt
jt ijt
it
2
2
j 1
j

1
j

1
k

j
j

1
2
2
5
o
5
5
j 1
j 1
j 1 k  j
j 1
 it  uititvuitit  vit
i 46
1,...,countries
46 countries
J andk k1,...,
1,...,55inputs
inputs .. tt 11,...,
. .
wherewhere
i  1,...,
. J. and
,...,4646 time
timeperiod
period
-
Non-Parametric, non-Stochastic Malmquist Index.
These two approaches complement each other given that in general,
specification error is a problem in econometric studies especially when
technological change is monotonic.
Irrigation, Drought, and climate change in SAA
Results
Output
Fertilizers
Livestock
Machinery
Labor
land
Irrigation
Irrigation & Drought
Average TFP Growth Rates SSA 1961-2006 (%)
1.5
4
3
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
-1
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
1973
2006
2003
2000
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
0
East Africa
-2
1970
Average TFP Growth Rates per Region
1961-2006 (%)
0.5
0
1967
Frontier
1
1
1964
Malmquist
2
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1961
Irrigation
• Positive growth rates from 1990 to 2006 (1.09%).
•Southern Africa and West Africa performed better with higher productivity rates.
•Malmquist and Stochastic Frontier Methods show consistent results (low TFP growth rates) from 1961 to mid-1980s then both indicate
increasing TFP growth rates.
•IFPRI reports that irrigation water supply reliability, the ratio of water consumption to requirements, is expected to worsen in SSA due
to climate change.
•SAA has the potential for expanding irrigation and increasing agricultural productivity.
Evolution of Irrigation in SAA (Index 1961=1)
1976
2006
2003
2000
East Africa
1973
Central Africa
1997
1994
1991
1988
1985
1982
1979
1976
West Africa
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1970
Southern Africa
1973
1970
1967
1961
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
TFP Index
Index
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1964
U.S. Billions
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Growth of Inputs, Output, and Irrigation (Index 1961=1)
Evolution of TFP by region
1967
Output growth rates between 1961-2006 were about 2.5%. Increased agricultural productivity and irrigation would help agriculture
play its role as an engine of growth and poverty reduction.
Average Agricultural Output in SAA
•46 countries, from 1961-2006
• Output: Agricultural Gross Production.
• Inputs: Fertilizers, Livestock, Machinery, Labor, Land.
• Efficiency changing variables: irrigation, drought, armed
conflicts, war, colonial heritage, years after
independence,
1964
In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), rural poverty accounts for 90% of total poverty and
about 80% of the poor depends on agriculture for their livelihoods (Dixon,
Gulliver, and Gibbon 2001).
Rain-fed agricultural dominates agricultural production in SSA, covering around
97% of total cropland and exposes agricultural production to high seasonal
rainfall variability. (The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)).
SAA is the most vulnerable region to climate change because of its climate
variability and widespread poverty which limits adaptative capacity. This could
seriously worsen livelihood conditions for the rural poor and increase food
insecurity in the region.
Model
1961
Introduction
•United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) indicates
that drought and desertification in SAA are serious challenges on threats
facing sustainable development in the region.
•Increased climate variability and droughts due to climate change will
negatively affect agricultural production.
Southern Africa
TFP % (1961-1989)
West Africa
Central Africa
TFP % (1989-2006)
Conclusion
- The region exhibited positive growth rates of 0.12% between 1961-2006 and 1.09% between 1990-2006.
- No evidence of slowdown but improvement in TFP
- South Africa and Nigeria have the highest irrigation ratio and the higher TFP growth rates.
- Irrigation: positive impact on TFP; Drought: Negative impact on TFP; armed conflicts: negative impacts on TFP.
-Irrigation and improvements in agricultural productivity are key variables, not only for future economic development, poverty reduction,
and food security in SAA but also for climate change adaptation.
- Next step: Incorporate CO2 emissions as a bad output using a distance function. Preliminary results indicate lower TFP rates in SSA.
Contact information: Aziza Kibonge. Email: [email protected]