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Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Authors Aziza Kibonge Email: [email protected] Poster prepared for presentation at the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association 2010 AAEA, CAES, & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado, July 25-27, 2010. Copyright 2010 by Aziza Kibonge. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for noncommercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AZIZA KIBONGE Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Objectives • Obtain measures of agricultural productivity covering 46 countries in SAA. • Examine the potential role of some factors (including irrigation and drought) in explaining the difference in countries performances. - Data Parametric Stochastic Translog Production Frontier; 5 5 5 5 1 1 5 5 5 2 2 1 1 a b bj xijt cxc2jj xjj c c jkxxijtxxikt bbt tt bbtt t t 2 b jtbxijtxt tit ln Yit lnaYoit x j ijt jj jj jk ijt ikt t tt jt ijt it 2 2 j 1 j 1 j 1 k j j 1 2 2 5 o 5 5 j 1 j 1 j 1 k j j 1 it uititvuitit vit i 46 1,...,countries 46 countries J andk k1,..., 1,...,55inputs inputs .. tt 11,..., . . wherewhere i 1,..., . J. and ,...,4646 time timeperiod period - Non-Parametric, non-Stochastic Malmquist Index. These two approaches complement each other given that in general, specification error is a problem in econometric studies especially when technological change is monotonic. Irrigation, Drought, and climate change in SAA Results Output Fertilizers Livestock Machinery Labor land Irrigation Irrigation & Drought Average TFP Growth Rates SSA 1961-2006 (%) 1.5 4 3 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 -1 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 1973 2006 2003 2000 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 0 East Africa -2 1970 Average TFP Growth Rates per Region 1961-2006 (%) 0.5 0 1967 Frontier 1 1 1964 Malmquist 2 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1961 Irrigation • Positive growth rates from 1990 to 2006 (1.09%). •Southern Africa and West Africa performed better with higher productivity rates. •Malmquist and Stochastic Frontier Methods show consistent results (low TFP growth rates) from 1961 to mid-1980s then both indicate increasing TFP growth rates. •IFPRI reports that irrigation water supply reliability, the ratio of water consumption to requirements, is expected to worsen in SSA due to climate change. •SAA has the potential for expanding irrigation and increasing agricultural productivity. Evolution of Irrigation in SAA (Index 1961=1) 1976 2006 2003 2000 East Africa 1973 Central Africa 1997 1994 1991 1988 1985 1982 1979 1976 West Africa 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1970 Southern Africa 1973 1970 1967 1961 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 TFP Index Index 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1964 U.S. Billions 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Growth of Inputs, Output, and Irrigation (Index 1961=1) Evolution of TFP by region 1967 Output growth rates between 1961-2006 were about 2.5%. Increased agricultural productivity and irrigation would help agriculture play its role as an engine of growth and poverty reduction. Average Agricultural Output in SAA •46 countries, from 1961-2006 • Output: Agricultural Gross Production. • Inputs: Fertilizers, Livestock, Machinery, Labor, Land. • Efficiency changing variables: irrigation, drought, armed conflicts, war, colonial heritage, years after independence, 1964 In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), rural poverty accounts for 90% of total poverty and about 80% of the poor depends on agriculture for their livelihoods (Dixon, Gulliver, and Gibbon 2001). Rain-fed agricultural dominates agricultural production in SSA, covering around 97% of total cropland and exposes agricultural production to high seasonal rainfall variability. (The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)). SAA is the most vulnerable region to climate change because of its climate variability and widespread poverty which limits adaptative capacity. This could seriously worsen livelihood conditions for the rural poor and increase food insecurity in the region. Model 1961 Introduction •United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) indicates that drought and desertification in SAA are serious challenges on threats facing sustainable development in the region. •Increased climate variability and droughts due to climate change will negatively affect agricultural production. Southern Africa TFP % (1961-1989) West Africa Central Africa TFP % (1989-2006) Conclusion - The region exhibited positive growth rates of 0.12% between 1961-2006 and 1.09% between 1990-2006. - No evidence of slowdown but improvement in TFP - South Africa and Nigeria have the highest irrigation ratio and the higher TFP growth rates. - Irrigation: positive impact on TFP; Drought: Negative impact on TFP; armed conflicts: negative impacts on TFP. -Irrigation and improvements in agricultural productivity are key variables, not only for future economic development, poverty reduction, and food security in SAA but also for climate change adaptation. - Next step: Incorporate CO2 emissions as a bad output using a distance function. Preliminary results indicate lower TFP rates in SSA. Contact information: Aziza Kibonge. Email: [email protected]