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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
Integrated Assessment of
Biological Invasions
as a basis for biodiversity policies
Felix Rauschmayer, Department of Economics, Sociology, and Law
• Introduction
• Three dimensions of uncertainty:
– scientific
– value
– societal
• Multi-criteria decision aid
• Conclusion
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
1. Introduction
A biological invasion is the establishment and the nonintended spread of an alien species.
Measures may be taken on four levels:
1) the import of foreign species,
2) their introduction into nature,
3) their establishment, and/or
4) their invasion
Societal decisions about policies against biological invasions need
assessments that integrate economic, social and ecological aspects.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
1. Introduction
The assessment process may be divided into three steps:
1) Specify the underlying physical effects of invasions and of
measures against invasions.
2) Assess the impacts of invasions on the social and economic
environment.
3) Evaluate these assessments according to their importance.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the
prognostics of the impacts
Knowledge
about facts
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic
Risk
Ambiguity
Incertitude
Ignorance
Knowledge
about
probabilities
problematic
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the
prognostics of the impacts
Risk aspects:
(1) there are – at least in moderated or arctic regions – a lot of
species for which the probability of establishment is nearly
zero, and
Incertitude and ignorance aspects:
(1) the probabilities of a single species to establish or invade vary
to a large extent,
(2) It has not been possible to make general statistics concerning
the invasion probability dependent on any variables of the
biota.
(3) We are not in a position to isolate reasonable hypotheses
concerning the real probability of a certain species to get
established or to become a pest.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
2. a) Scientific uncertainty about the
prognostics of the impacts
There are some species for which the consequences of
invasions come close to a catastrophe. Others are
unproblematic.
 It is rational not to take drastic measures concerning
species with nearly no probability of establishment, and it
is also rational to take measures which inhibit
catastrophes.
 In cases of high uncertainty, it is rational to choose the
measure with the smallest potential negative effects.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
2. b) Value uncertainty
Four moral questions for a decision maker in environmental fields:
• Do only humans count? If yes:
• Do only existing humans count? If yes:
• Do only persons count? If yes:
• Do persons always know best what is good for them?
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
2. b) Value uncertainty
Taking decisions about biological invasions means to take
morally complex decisions :
(1) where many entities are concerned by a decision,
(2) where it is not sure who these entities are,
(3) where the decision touches upon many aspects of life, and
(4) where irreversible consequences are to be expected.
 Any assessment method must be open to different ethical
conceptions, to integrate non-persons, and to respect the right of
future generations.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
2. c) Societal uncertainty
Who shall participate in the decision process?
Two arguments in favour of participatory decision making:
– the functional and
– the ethical-normative argument.
Who participates?
– Decision processes concerning measures against import or
establishment have to be open to the discourse of a large array of
stakeholders.
– The aspects of value uncertainty discussed above call for
advocatory participation for non-persons or non-living persons.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
1.
3.
Evaluation criteria
Selection of alternatives
4.
poss.
2.
Identify problem and actors
Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Multi-criteria matrix
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
...
Alternative n
economic
criteria
A
B
...
Evaluation criteria
social
criteria
I
J
...
5.
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix
6.
Decision recommendation
7.
Implementation
V
ecological
criteria
W
...
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
 There are few and explicit transformation steps,
 Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique,
 The different uncertainties may be handled separately,
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
1.
2.
Identify problem and actors
3.
Evaluation criteria
Selection of alternatives
4.
Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Multi-criteria matrix
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
...
Alternative n
economic
criteria
A
B
...
Evaluation criteria
social
criteria
I
J
...
5.
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix
6.
Decision recommendation
7.
Implementation
V
ecological
criteria
W
...
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
 There are few and explicit transformation steps,
 Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique.
 The different uncertainties may be handled separately,
 Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce
overall substitutability of the different values,
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
1.
2.
Identify problem and actors
3.
Evaluation criteria
Selection of alternatives
4.
Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Multi-criteria matrix
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
...
Alternative n
economic
criteria
A
B
...
Evaluation criteria
social
criteria
I
J
...
5.
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix
6.
Decision recommendation
7.
Implementation
V
ecological
criteria
W
...
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
 There are few and explicit transformation steps,
 Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique.
 The different uncertainties may be handled separately,
 Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce
overall substitutability of the different values,
 Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”,
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
1.
2.
Identify problem and actors
3.
Evaluation criteria
Selection of alternatives
4.
Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Multi-criteria matrix
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
...
Alternative n
economic
criteria
A
B
...
Evaluation criteria
social
criteria
I
J
...
5.
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix
6.
Decision recommendation
7.
Implementation
V
ecological
criteria
W
...
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
 There are few and explicit transformation steps,
 Transparency for outsiders and openness to changes within the
process are characteristics of this assessment technique.
 The different uncertainties may be handled separately,
 Through the consideration of thresholds it is possible to reduce
overall substitutability of the different values,
 Multi-dimensional conception of the ”good”,
 Non-persons or future persons may be considered explicitly.
Integrated Assessment of Biological Invasions - F. Rauschmayer
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
3. Multi-criteria decision aid
1.
2.
Identify problem and actors
3.
Evaluation criteria
Selection of alternatives
4.
Mono-criterion evaluation of alternatives
Multi-criteria matrix
Alternatives
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
...
Alternative n
economic
criteria
A
B
...
Evaluation criteria
social
criteria
I
J
...
5.
Aggregation of the Multi-criteria matrix
6.
Decision recommendation
7.
Implementation
V
ecological
criteria
W
...
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UFZ-Center for Environmental Research Leipzig-Halle GmbH
4. Conclusion
The main difference between mono-criterion assessments and multicriteria decision analysis is less its mono- vs. multi-criteria approach,
but the facility of the latter to be embedded in a social decision
context.
With multi-criteria decision aid, it is more facile to lay open the
uncertainties in all three dimensions and to make them an explicit
topic for public discourse. Therefore, it seems suitable as an
assessment method for biological invasions and as a basis for
biodiversity policies in general.
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