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OUR ENERGY FUTURE:
UPDATED
SC 203
January 23, 2008
John Bush
TECHNOLOGY UPDATE
• Energy Sources/Conversion
• Energy/Power Transmission
• Energy Applications
FOSSIL FUELS
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Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Carbon Sequestration
GETTING RID OF CARBON DIOXIDE
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Disposal into space
Storage in the ocean
Fertilization of the ocean with iron
Reaction with basalt
Storage in forests
Storage in soil as “biochar”
GROWING DIESEL
• Jatropha--an Indian weed
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Needs little water
Grows on poor soil
Is not a food crop
Seed oil makes excellent diesel fuel
Estimated to be profitable at oil prices above $43/bbl
• Algae
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Absorbs carbon dioxide effluent from power plants
Yields oil suitable as diesel fuel and starch for ethanol
Pilot demonstration in Arizona
Scale up at Arizona Public service Four Corners
Station
CELLULOSE BASED ETHANOL
• Bluefire Ethanol
– First plant in Lancaster this year
– Pilot plant in Izumi Japan
• Coskata
– Recent investment by GM
– Pilot plant planned for 2008: Warrenville
Illinois
– One among several start-ups using bacterial
processing
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY
• Ground transport
– Light duty vehicles
– Trucks/buses/construction equipment
– Rail
• Air transport
• Water transport
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
POWER TRAINS/POWER SOURCES
• Power train
– Mechanical
– Electric
– Hybrid
• Power source
– ICE: Otto, Diesel
– Battery
– Supercapacitor
– Fuel cell: hydrogen/reformer
LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES
ENERGY SOURCE/INFRASTRUCTURE
• Energy source
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Fossil fuel
Biofuel
Hydrogen
Electric grid
Solar
• Infrastructure
– Energy sources
– Energy distribution
– Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance
WHERE DO THESE STAND?
AN UNOFFICIAL SCORECARD
TS*
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Internal combustion
– Gasoline/diesel fuel
– Methane
– Hydrogen
– Biofuels
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Electric
– Battery
– Supercapacitor
– Hydrogen fuel cell
– Reformer fuel cell
– Solar/hybrid
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PI*
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DI*
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*TS = Technology status
*PI = Energy production infrastructure
*DI = Energy distribution infrastructure
*VI = Vehicle manufacturing/marketing/maintenance infrastructure
VI*
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ELECTRIC VEHICLES:
PROJECT BETTER PLACE
• Employs a new business model
– Consumer buys the car
– Consumer rents the battery—monthly fee based on
usage
– Networks of charging and exchange stations
• Employs “proven” technologies
– Lithium ion battery developed Renault and NEC
• Highway 124 miles/charge (100?)
• Lifetime 1500 charges
• Top speed 70 mph
– Renault-Nissan will make the car in Europe
PROJECT BETTER PLACE
& RENAULT/NISSAN/NEC
• Starting a pilot program in Israel
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People drive less than 100 miles/day 90% of the time
Tel Aviv: 150 charging stations and 2 swap stations
Economics: $0.026/mile versus $0.32/mile
Expect 500,000 charging stations and 100,000 cars
on the road by 2010 (or maybe 20,000 by 2011!)
• May extend the pilot to
– Small countries: Denmark, Holland
– Crowded cities: London, Paris, Singapore, New York
– China?
OTHER ALL ELECTRIC
VEHICLES
• Daimler Smart Car: all electric version by
2009
• Tesla Roadster: 2008 ($100,000)
• Aptera Three Wheeler: 2008 ($30,000)
• Phoenix Motor Cars Pick-up truck: 2008
DAIMLER SMART CAR
TESLA
APTERA
PHOENIX MOTOR CARS
PLUG-IN HYBRIDS (PHEVS)
• Quantum Technologies/Fisker Karma
luxury sedan: $80,000 2009
• GM/A123: Chevy Volt commercial by “late”
2010— “a stretch”
• GM-Saturn: Concept car shown in Detroit
• Ford: SUV in test with Southern California
Edison
• Toyota/Panasonic: commercial customers
by 2010
FUEL CELL POWERED VEHICLES
• Honda FCX Clarity: Sedan
• GM Chevy Equinox: SUV consumer
evaluation in 2008
• Ford Fusion 999: 200 mph sports car
HONDA SOLAR HYDROGEN STATION
HONDA HOME HYDROGEN STATION
SUMMARY-- 2015
• ICEs using fossil fuels will dominate
• ICEs using biofuels may still have to overcome inadequate fuel
availability
• Hybrid vehicles (plug-in) may form a significant part of the installed
capacity
• Fuel cell vehicles may still have to overcome
– Limited life and high cost of fuel cells
– Limited availability of hydrogen
– Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience
• All-electric vehicles may still have to overcome
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Limited range and high cost of batteries
Unresolved safety issues
Limited recharging sites
Limited vehicle manufacturing/maintenance experience