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Ten Disciplines of a Successful Forecaster Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Discipline 1 First examines and studies observations and analysis – Reviews satellite / radar imagery – Looks at large scale and regional surface observations – Locates thermal advection patterns and jet stream circulations Discipline 2 Looks at details of analysis fields, focusing on the ‘unexpected’ – Searches for clouds / echoes in nontypical places – Examines surface reports for the ‘odd’ report(s) – Watches for ageostrophic components of upper air fields Discipline 3 Keeps continuity with weather pattern – Rarely forgets about weather Develops a daily briefing routine – Touches base often with ‘data’ Reviews satellite and surface reports – Generally ‘in touch’ with regime Looks at ‘ancillary data’ to confirm it Discipline 4 Probes weather data / analysis – Asks questions ‘why’ are: Clouds configured the way they are Radar echoes taken on certain shape Surface observations showing this temperature, wind or dewpoint gradient Discipline 5 Allows ‘Guidance’ to become the reward of a thorough observation review – Waits to look over a variety of analysis before seeing what the models show – Understands where to look for ‘problems’ with the guidance based on the ‘obs’ Discipline 6 Applies conceptual models to forecast challenges – Keeps a mental notebook of types of fronts, jet stream disturbances, etc. – Adjusts conceptual models to actual occurrences FRONTS ARE REALLY WAVES LIKE THE TIDE Discipline 7 Faithfully reviews past forecasts (no matter how painful) to glean insights into the ways of the atmosphere – – Looks at specific errors and asks ‘why this happened the way it did?’ – Searches for answers beyond the trite: “The models led me astray” Discipline 8 Becomes increasingly consistent with forecasting – Makes a point to review the internal consistency of a prediction – Adjusts probabilities to fit a likely scenario – Learns when to hedge and when to go for the fences Discipline 9 Keeps a log/journal of lessons learned – Progresses from model bias issues – Identifies own biases – Perceives new texture to atmospheric circulations – Gains broader overview of the forecast problem Discipline 10 Broadens learning beyond ‘me’ against the models – Learns the value of consensus – Gains insight into use of ensembles – Reads new material on forecasting (online modules) – Keeps a good sense of humor!