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Intelligent systems Intelligence? Matjaž Gams Jozef Stefan Institute, Slovenia MPS, 28.10.2009 1 I. DEFINITIONS: Intelligent systems (scientific) Intelligent system is a system that learns during its existence. It senses its environment and learns, for each situation, which action permits it to reach its objectives. It continually acts, mentally and externally, and by acting reaches its objectives. To reach its objective it has to select its response. A simple way to select a response is to select one that was favorable in a similar previous situation. Engineering definition: more advanced than current ones. Properties / Learning Learning Flexibility Adaptation Explanation Discovery (engineering – mouse?) Definition AI - Wikipedia The intelligence of machines and the branch of computer science which aims to create it. Major AI textbooks define the field as "the study and design of intelligent agents." John McCarthy, who coined the term in 1956, defines it as "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines.“ (Turing first?) The field was founded on the claim that intelligence can be simulated by a machine. Artificial intelligence has been the subject of breathtaking optimism, has suffered stunning setbacks and is today an essential part of the technology industry, computer science and IS. 5/24/2017 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Russell and Norvig ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: A Modern Approach 5/24/2017 Approaches to AI Cybernetics and brain simulation Traditional symbolic AI Sub-symbolic AI Intelligent agent paradigm Integrating the approaches Kismet social robot 5/24/2017 AI performance optimal: it is not possible to perform better strong super-human: performs better than all humans super-human: performs better than most humans sub-human: performs worse than most humans For example, performance at checkers is optimal, performance at chess is super-human and nearing strong super-human, and performance at many everyday tasks performed by humans is sub-human. 5/24/2017 II. INTELLIGENCE, SCIENCE, REAL LIFE, BUSINESS Intelligence = better performance, better prediction of future, (5 mil. y. cave man, 25% energy, improved performance - sex?, Evolution!! Now – low intelligence related to crime, unemployment ...) Intelligence – evolutionary, one person, society, types of intelligence, knowledge, … Turing test: TT, TTT, TTTT ... Imagination is more important than knowledge... (Albert Einstein) Interaction is more important than algorithms (Wegner, Gams) MPS, 15.7.2010 8 The world is not as it seems http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix1.avi (+income, knowledge, health, live longer …) Cypher: Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill? http://dis.ijs.si/mezi/pedagosko/matrix2.avi (-less children, less sex …) MPS, 28.10.2009 9 Is the internet changing the way our brains work? Yes! (taxi driver) Do we use tools such as Web to increase our capabilities? Yes! Human + Web > Human Faster progress of mental capabilities! MPS, 28.10.2009 10 Science is truth - half empty glass - w. earn less, w. less intelligent, b. less intelligent, underdeveloped exploit rich, more/less intelligent generations (formal or real-life tests) - religious better mental health, creationism vs. evolution - provocative, debatable, fierce opposition - religion, politics, ideology - mass media (Finance) MPS, 28.10.2009 11 r Socio-economic status; better intellience helps MPS, 28.10.2009 12 Can we predict future? An exampe of oil: - pessimistic - optimistic - not possible to predict short-term prices US oil production MPS, 28.10.2009 13 Can we predict future? An exampe of oil: - we can predict general trends! (several years ahead of ...) The end of cheap oil – on general it will be more expensive There will be ups and downs In one or several decades max production - Interpretation-prediction: Peak oil is one of the real causes of our credit crisis, our banking crisis, our stock market declines and ultimately our economic problems (or is it neoliberalism and lack of governmental control) - What do you conclude about future progress from these assertions? MPS, 28.10.2009 14 Can we predict future? Demography: - we can predict general demography very well (it is easy in scientific terms) (several years ahead of ...) S sedanjih 6.5 milijarde bo število ljudi naraslo na 9-10 milijard v letu 2050. Po celinah bo stanje leta 2050 glede na 1900 naslednje: Afrika (133 milijonov, 1.9 milijarde) Azija (946 mio, 5.2 mil), Evropa (408 mio, 664 mio), Severna Amerika (82 mio, 455 mio). Leta 2050 na 1 Rusa 4 Američani in 20 Indijcev. Slovenci s sedanjih 1:4000 na 1:8000 do leta 2050. V 50 letih 2x manj. - What can you conclude from this? MPS, 28.10.2009 15 Slovenija, 2008 Starost 100+ 100+ Moški Ženske 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 00 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 Prebivalstvo (v tisočih) Vir: Eurostat, 2008; prikaz: Jože Sambt 20 Slovenija, 2028 Sta 100+ 100+ ros 90 90 t Mo ški Ženske 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 00 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 Prebivalstvo Vir: Eurostat,(v 2008; prikaz: Jože Sambt tisočih) 15 20 Projekcija Slovencev Projekcije gibanja Slovencev po narodnosti od 2005-2100 1800000 1600000 1200000 1000000 Slovenci - optimistična 800000 Slovenci - pesimistična 600000 400000 200000 Leto 24.5.2017 2100 2095 2090 2085 2080 2075 2070 2065 2060 2055 2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 0 2005 Št. Slovencev 1400000 Vrnitev na današnje število prebivalcev čez 100 let z linearnim zviševanjem rodnosti (8;13) – prikaz dolgoročnosti in zamika 1600000 1400000 1200000 Slovenci optimistična 1000000 800000 Leto 24.5.2017 2095 2086 2077 2068 2059 2050 2041 2032 2023 2014 600000 400000 200000 0 Slovenci pesimistična 2005 Št. Slovencev 1800000 Can we predict future? Projekcije gibanja Slovencev po narodnosti od 2005-2100 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 Slovenci - optimisti 800000 Slovenci - pesimist 600000 400000 200000 2100 2095 2090 2085 2080 2075 2070 2065 2060 2055 2050 2045 Leto Rather bleak predictions? Physical or mental? S t a r o s Prt 100+ 100+ Ženske 90 90 M o š k i 20 MPS, 28.10.2009 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 0 2005 Št. Slovencev - What can you conclude from this? - Does science help us and how? Does intelligence help us and how? 1800000 15 10 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 5 0 0 0 ebi 5 10 15 20 20 Fantastic progress of knowledge! Intelligence is strongly related to success Science = truth! - half empty glass - avoid non-science by all means, be careful of interpretations You are at an advanced level and you will boldly go further MPS, 28.10.2009 21