Download Decision Support System

Computer
Brainpower
How Can You Use Your
Computer to Help You
Think?
Chapter 15
Student Learning Outcomes
1. Define decision support systems, list their
components, and identify the types of situations
to which they are applicable
2. Define geographic information systems and
state how they differ from other decision
support tools
3. List the different types of artificial intelligence
used in business
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Student Learning Outcomes
4. Define expert systems and the type of situation
to which they are applicable
5. Define neural network and genetic algorithm,
and explain how each works and the type of
situation to which each is applicable
6. Describe the types and uses of intelligent
agents
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Introduction
In the business world, managers make
decisions every day, some more
consequential than others. Decision making
is one of the most significant and important
activities in business.
IT power in the form of artificial intelligence
is actually replacing human brainpower to a
limited degree.
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Three Major Categories of Computeraided Decision-Making Software
Artificial
Intelligence
Decision
Support
Software
Intelligent
Agent
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15.1 Decision Support
Software
• Decisions can be:
Somewhere in between
Structured
Unstructured
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Decision Support Software
• Decisions
– Structured - make by applying a formula
– Unstructured – no guaranteed way to get a precise
right answer
p. 15.457 - Fig. 15.1
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Decision Making With
Personal Productivity Software
• Choices for financing a car that costs
$10,000:
– Three years at 8.25 percent interest
– Four years at 9.25 percent interest
– $1,000 down and three years at 8 percent
interest
What are the structured parts of this
decision? The unstructured parts?
SimNet
Concepts Support CD: “Spreadsheet Applications”
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Use Excel (DSS) to Analyze
Your Decision
p. 15.458 - Fig. 15.2
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Decision Support System
• Software that uses
models, information, and
an interactive user
interface
• Lets you look at
information in different
ways
• Requires a lot of input
from you
p. 15.459 - Fig. 15.4
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DSS Components
Model Management
Data Management
User Interface Management
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Decision Support System
Components
• Model Management
– Handles the models
• A model is a representation of reality
• Data Management
– Details of the case and other information
– In Excel example, numeric values of the variables
• User Interface Management
– Manner in which you communicate with the
software package, i.e. Excel screen
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DSS - Analyze Options and
Make a Decision
p. 15.460 - Fig. 15.5
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Business Tasks Where
DSS Can Be Used
• Deciding where to spend advertising
dollars
• Analyzing sales trend information
• Analyzing drug interactions
• Developing airline schedules
• Developing asset portfolios
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Decision Support System
Models
p. 15.461 - Fig. 15.6
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Decision Support System
Models
• Accuracy & helpfulness of results from DSS
models depend on:
– Correctness of the relationships or formulas
– How accurate estimates are
– Validity of any underlying assumptions
SimNet
Concepts Support CD: “Financial Management Applications”
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Geographic Information
System (GIS)
• Software that allows you to
see information in map
form
• Visual representation of
information
• Takes traditional map
information and combines
it with other information
and represents information
in layers
p. 15.463 - Fig. 15.7
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Global Positioning System
(GPS)
• A device that tells
your current…
–
–
–
–
Latitude
Longitude
Speed
Direction of movement
• Geographic
information systems
(GIS) can be
combined with
database and GPS
technology
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15.2 Artificial Intelligence
(AI)
• AI is a type of computer-aided decision
software
• AI is the science of making machines
imitate human thinking and behavior
 Robot artificial intelligence device
with simulated human senses
capable of taking action on its own
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Artificial Intelligence
Systems in Business
Expert Systems
Neural Networks
Genetic Algorithms
Fuzzy Logic
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Expert Systems
• Also called a knowledge-based system
• AI system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a
conclusion
• Built for specific applications – domains
• Common type of ES is a rule-based expert system
p. 15.465 - Fig. 15.8
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Two Kinds of Problems
Solved with Expert Systems
Diagnostic – Answers the question “what’s wrong?”
Prescriptive – Answers the question “what to do?”
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Neural Networks
• Simulates the human ability to classify
• AI system that learns how to differentiate
patterns
• Trained by feeding hundreds, or thousands, of
examples
• Credit card companies use neural network
alerts for credit usage
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Neural Network
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Genetic Algorithms
• Artificial intelligence
system that mimics the
evolutionary, survival-ofthe-fittest process
• Could generate better
solutions to a problem
• Uses the computer to
examine solutions
• Repeats the process until it
finds the best solution
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Genetic Algorithms
p. 15.468 - Fig. 15.11
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Fuzzy Logic
• Is a mathematical model of handling
imprecise or subjective information
• Best for situations where variables are
shifting constantly and a decision must be
made quickly
• Example – antilock brakes
SimNet
Concepts Support CD: “Virtual Reality and
Artificial Intelligence”
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15.3 Intelligent Agents or Bots
• Software that will automatically perform
repetitive tasks on your computer for you
• Involves finding and tracking information
• Usually work in the background, so you
can still use your computer for other tasks
• Future intelligent agents will most likely be
autonomous, acting independently,
learning and adapting to changing
circumstances
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Four Basic Types of
Intelligent Agents
Buyer Agents or
Shopping Bots
Monitoring-andSurveillance or
Predictive Agents
User or Personal
Agents
Data-Mining
Agents
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Buyer Agents
• Buyer agents travel
around a network
finding information
and bringing it back to
you
• Agents
– Buyer agent
– Shopping bot
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User Agents
• Take action on your behalf
• Help an individual perform
computer-related tasks
• Work in the background
• Examples
–
–
–
–
Clippy in Word
Agents that check for e-mail
Scan Web pages
Fill out forms on the Web
p. 15.471 - Fig. 15.13
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Monitoring-and-Surveillance
Agents
• Intelligent agents that perform
diagnostic and housekeeping tasks in
the background
• Alert you when they find something of
interest
• Example
– Agents that monitor large networks
• Computer Associates International
• NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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Data-Mining Agents
• Helps you discover new information,
trends, and relationships within a data
warehouse without necessarily applying
a specific mathematical model
SimNet
Concepts Support CD: “Data Mining”
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Two Main Objectives of Data
Mining
Prediction – Involves recognizing patterns and recognizing
those patterns as they begin to emerge in the information.
Discovery – Purpose is to find patterns in information so that
characteristics can be categorized into classes.
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15.4 Key Terms
•
•
•
•
Artificial intelligence
Buyer agent
Data-mining agent
Decision support
system (DSS)
• Expert system
• Fuzzy logic
• Genetic algorithm
• Geographic information
system
• Intelligent agent
• Monitoring-andsurveillance agent
• Neural network
• User agent
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Review of Concepts
1. Which Type of Computer-Aided Support
Should You Use?
 For finding the shortest route to visit all the
U.S. capitols?
2. Be a Human Genetic Algorithm that Puts
Nails in Boxes
 It’s not as easy as you think?
3. Extend the Traffic Expert System
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Hands On Projects
E-Commerce
1. Finding the Right Speech Recognition
Software
2. Using Intelligent Agents
3. Shopping Bots
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Hands On Projects
Ethics, Security & Privacy
1. Carnivor and Magic Lantern
 What does the FBI really monitor about you?
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Hands On Projects
on the Web
1. Data-Mining Software
2. Types of Decision Support
3. Bringing Machines to Life
 Got AIBO?
4. Expert Systems
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Hands On Projects
Group Activities
1. Determining What You Need to Tell a
Neural Network
2. Team Decision Making
3. Deciding on Financing
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