Download PPCR Risk Analysis – Impact of Climate Change

Developing Nepal’s Strategic
Program for Climate Resilience
(SPCR)
Status of Activities under SPCR
Work Program
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Completed
Developing Nepal’s Strategic
Program for Climate Resilience
(SPCR)
Risk Assessment
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Prioritized Risks and Districts by TWG Meeting (Water and Energy Thematic Working Group)
Climate Change Outcome
Risks
Prioritized Climate Change Risks
Prioritized Districts /Areas
-Enhance glacial melting
-Glacial Lake Outburst
Flood(GLOF)
-Flood
-Landslide
-Erosion and sedimentation
-Changes in river annual flows
-Decrease in river discharge
-Drought
-Water quality degradation
-Drying out of springs/ water
scarcity(drinking/irrigation)
-Changes in shallow ground
water table
Risk 1: Water quantity (too little water)
(Small irrigation /rural drinking water/
Micro-hydro / water mill /groundwater
depletion/ spring depletion)
Risk 2 : Water quantity (too much water)
(Flood / GLOF)
(Landslide/flood: damage of water source,
water supply infrastructures, basically
intake and pipelines.)
Risk 3 : Degradation of quality of
drinking water
Siraha , Chitawan , Solukhumbu, Acham,
Jajarkot, Kalikot, Jumla, Pyuthan,
Makawanpur , Rukum, Dang, Rolpa,
Dadeldhura, Lamjung, Parbat
Chitawan, Kailali, Kanchanpur, Mustang
Mustang, Nuwakot, Chitawan, Udayapur
Prioritized Risks and Districts by TWG Meeting (Climate Induced Disaster)
Climate Change Outcome
Risks
- Flood
Prioritized Climate
Change Risk
Risk 1: Flood
- Landslide
Prioritized Districts
Jhapa, Udayapur, Mahottari,
Kailali
- GLOF
- Drought
Risk 2: Landslide Sankhuwasawa, Panchthar,
- Forest fire
Udayapur, Makawanpur, Bajura
- Epidemic
- Heat wave
- Cold wave
- Thunderbolt/
hailstorm/windstorm
Risk 3: Drought
Siraha, Mustang, Kapilbastu
District Level Climate Change Risk Analysis at Panchthar District
Climate Change
Outcome Risks
- Landslide
- Drought /drying
out of springs
- Forest fire
- Appearance of
new insect and
pest in forest /
vegetable/ cash
crops
- Problem in
human health
(Increased cases of
unexpected dieses)
Prioritized Risk
Major Impact
1. Landslide
Damaged residential buildings,
washed out of cultivated land,
roads and irrigational cannel
2. Drought / drying out Scarcity of water for drinking and
of springs
irrigation
3. Forest fire
Biodiversity lost, increase in soil
erosion, prompt depletion of water
resources
Community Level CC Risk Analysis at Imbung village (Damai Community)
Panchthar District
Climate
Priority Risks
Change
Outcome Risk
-Landslide
1. Landslide
-Drought
-Health
problems (
increase the
cases of
jaundice,
diarrhea )
- Insects and
pests in trees
2. Drought
3. Health problems
(increase in the cases of
jaundice, diarrhea)
Major Impacts
- 4 household (migrated)
- 8 households became homeless
-8 households are still using the severely
damaged buildings. (No disaster shelters)
- Ground moving caused disruption of land
ownership boundries, at several places,
causing conflict among neighbors.
- Severe psycological tension
- Washed out cultivated land
- Decrease in crop production
- Scarcity of drinking water
- Children are sick for several days
District Level CC Risk Analysis at Udayapur District
Climate Change
Outcome Risk
-Flood
Priority Risks
Major Impacts
1. Drying out of springs
(drought)
- Scarcity of water for drinking and irrigation
- Degradation of quality of drinking water /
spreading dieses specially in children
- Triggered conflict among water users groups
- Decrease in agricultural production
- Forced migration
2. Landslide
-Washed out of cultivated land, residential
buildings, forest area, intake and pipe line of
drinking water schemes, displaced peoples
- Sedimentation in cultivated land and forest
area / river bed level rise
- Damaged to infrastructures (transportation,
communication ,intake and water supply
pipelines infrastructure)
- Displaced people
-Landslide
-Drought
-Forest fire
-Degradation of
quality of drinking
water
- New insect and
pests in agriculture
/forestry
3. Flood
Community Level Climate Change Risk Analysis at Asari Village / Community)
Udayapur District
Climate change
Outcome Risk
Priority Risks
-Drought /drying 1. Drought /drying out of
out of springs,
springs, dug wells and tube
dug wells and
wells
tube wells
-Flood
2. Flood
-Soil erosion
-New insect and
pests in plants
3. New insect and pests in
plants
Major Impacts
-Scarcity of water for
drinking, animal feeding, and
irrigation.
- Water quality degredation
- Health problems
- Washed out of an intake of a
drinking water project.(4
times in 17 years)
- Inundation, siltation and
erosion
Decreased in cereal
production
Risk Prioritization
Name of TWG: Forest and Biodiversity
Climate Change Outcome Risks as
Mentioned in NAPA Documents
1. Increased Forest fire
2. Change in precipitation patterns
3. Increased temperature4. degradation of ecosystems and
habitat/ habitat shift/ change in
phenology/ morphology
Degradation of wetlands
Degradation of NTFPs and
MAPs in high hills
pressure to critically
endangered species (both plant
and animal)
5. Flash floods
6. Prolonged drought: e.g. increased
tree mortality
Prioritized Climate Change
Risk
Risk 1: Increased Forest fire
Risk 2: wetland degradation
Risk 3:Degradation of
NTFPs/MAPs
Prioritized Districts
District 1: Sindhupalchowk
District 2: Doti
District 3: Nawalparasi
District 1: Chitwan
District 2: Kaski
District 3: Kailali
District 1: Dolpa
District 2: Sankhuwasabha
District 3: Salyan
Risk 4:Habitat degradation
District 1: Chitwan
(wildlife / IAS)
District 2: Rupendehi
District 3: Bardiya
Risk Prioritization
Name of TWG: Agriculture and Food Security
Climate Change Outcome Risks as
Mentioned in NAPA Documents
1. Decreasing soil-moisture availability
2. Prolonged drought – winter /
monsoon
3. Floods
4. Soil erosion
5. Increased disease prevalence, vector
borne and parasitic diseases
6. Heat and cold waves
7. A reduction of discharge of water in
shallow and even deep tube well
8. Evolution of weeds/ insect/pest
dynamisms (plant & animal)
9. Erosion of agro-biodiversity/
degradation of ecosystems
10. Hailstorms/wind storms / Decrease in
incidence of cloudy days
Prioritized Climate
Change Risk
Prioritized Districts
Risk 1: Prolonged drought District 1: Mugu
District 2: Jajarkot
District 3: Banke
Risk 2: Floods (soil
erosion)
District 1: Kanchanpur
District 2: Banke
District 3: Sunsari
Risk 3: Increased disease
prevalence (plant and
animal) and weeds
Food Security
District 1: Mustang
District 2: Doti
District 3: Chitwan
Climate Change Risks - Chitwan
• Water induced disaster (flood, soil erosion/ land
cutting)/
• Agricultural productivity declining (pest, weed,
diseases and drought/lack of water)/ declining food
security
• Ecosystem (including wetland) degradation in Chure
and foothill of Mahabharat range (increased invasive
species, siltation)
• Declining water resources (ground water and spring)
• Health epidemics (e.g. fever and Dengue)
Climate Change Risks - Sindhupalchowk
• Drought/ reduced agricultural
productivity mainly from shifting
monsoon rain (late) /water spring
drying/ food security
• Floods and landslides/soil erosion
• Increased frequency of diseases/
emergence of diseases all round
the year in human, animal and
plant
• Forest fires/Ecological shifting
Climate Change Risks – Dhotar, Shindhupalchowk
(downstream)
• Agricultural production
decreased (due to lack of
water/drought)/ food security
• Water sources drying up/
floods
• Increased plant and animal
diseases / emergence of new
weeds (in every 4-5 years)
• Forest fire
Climate Change Risks – Kiul/Helambu, Sindhupalchowk
(upstream)
• Reduced agricultural
productivity (both quantity
and quality)/ food security
• Increased plant diseases
(crops and NTFPs/MAPs)
• Low productivity of
medicinal and aromatic plants
(MAPs)
• Increased numbers of
landslides
NTFPs: Non Timber Forest Products;
MAP: Medicinal and Aromatic Plant
Climate Change Risks – Gardi/Madi, Chitwan
(downstream)
• Floods from Riu Khola
• increased infestation of
insect and diseases / food
security
• Water scarcity (drought and
drying out of springs) and
water quality degradation
Risks – Shaktikhor, Chitwan
(upstream)
• Increased infestation of insect
and diseases (decreased crop
production)/ food security
• Increased soil erosion from
sloped land (from Chepang
community)
• Decreased forest food products
(e.g. Chiuri and Mango)/food
security
• Declining water sources (drying
out of spring and competition of
using water for irrigation,
drinking water and livestock)
Prioritisation of Risks (Urban Settlement and Infrastructure)
CC Outcome
Risks
Prioritized risks
Prioritized
municipalities/
districts
- Drought ,
Unusual variability
leading to
pollution
- Storm flood in
the cities
Risk 1 : Drought,
unusual variability
leading to
pollution
D1 : Cities, KTM
Valley
D2 : Dharan (Sunsari)
D3 : Ghorahi ( Dang),
HQ, Baitadi
- Access to urban
services
challenged
- Limited dilution
period
- Post event
diseases outbreaks
Risk 2 : Storm
flood in cities
D1 : Nepalgunj (
Banke)
D2 : Cities, KTM
Valley
D3 : Itahari ( Sunsari)
- Landslides,
damage to
infrastructures and
buildings
Risk 3 : Post event
disease outbreak
D1 : Nepalgunj (
Banke)
D2 : HQ, Baitadi
D3 : HQs,
Siraha/Saptari
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Prioritisation of Risks (Health)
CC Outcome Risks
Prioritized risks
Prioritized
municipalities/ districts
Heat stroke, hyperthermia
Cardio vascular diseases
Migrane
Epidemics
Water borne disease
Risk 1 Water borne
diseases
D1 : Banke
D2 : Jajarkot
D3 : Baitadi
Food borne diseases
Vector borne disease
Uterus Prolepses
Increased ARI incidences
Risk 2 : Vector borne
diseases
D1 : Kailali
D3 : Chitawan
D3 : Kanchanpur, Sunsari
Malnutrition, Stunting
Underweight children
Mental (psychological) disorder
Chromoblastomycosis (peak in summer)
Increased incident of poisonous snake bite
Risk 3 : Malnutrition (
food scarcity)
D1 : Bajura
D2 : Jajarkot
D3 : Remote Hill Districts
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
District Consultation
District
Prioritized Risk
Banke
Drainage (Pollution) and Sanitation
leading to nuisance and water borne
diseases
Blockage of natural drainage leading to
flood
Vector borne diseases
Baitadi
Water borne diseases ( diarrhea),
Vector borne disease (malaria)
Landslide
Haphazard urbanization
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Community Consultation
Community
in Banke
Risks
I
Water Quality (Sludge cleared from the drain lying on the
street for several days)
No safety tank, direct discharge of feces and urine on the
drain
Under capacity of the drainage facilities
II
Water Quality, No proper drainage
Social disruption and Infrastructure damage (Flood leading
to severe disturbances in everyday life )
Water Quality (Poor waste management ), Open defecation
Human Health (Encephalitis)
Water Quality (Contaminated water supply)
III
The area lies at the lowest elevation compared to
neighboring areas and water drains to this area
Contaminated water supply
Sludge cleared from the drains lying on the street for
several days
Poor waste collection and management
Water borne and vector borne diseases
Extreme cold and hot weather events
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Community Consultation
Community in
Baitadi
Risks
I
Infrastructure damage from extreme events (Urbanization without
planning )
Water quantity ; Change in the rainfall pattern (absence of winter
and pre-monsoon rain)
Prevalent drought leading to water shortage
Infrastructure damage (Lack of stormwater drainage system
leading to road and building damage )
No capacity for risk management (Lack of good governance due to
political interference on the development activities )
Absence of a good implementation mechanism
Absence of early warning system
II
Human Health (Loss of life and suffering from diarrhea outbreak)
WQ and HH (Water contamination due to erratic rainfall and lack
of protection of intakes )
Water availability (Reduced water supply in the dry period ), Lack
of protection of alternative water source
Livelihoods (Sudden loss of livestock)
Food security ( Absence snow fall for the last 4 years leading to
reduced crop yield )
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Key Messages from Field Consultations
- Emergency shelter needed in landslide and flood prone areas
- Micro-financing / soft loan / insurance is needed.
- Water source conservation (integrated watershed management) / water
sharing national policy are needed.
- Integrated ecosystem (water-agriculture-forest) approach to combat climate
change risks is needed.
- Improved risk management for infrastructure (guidelines to construct local
road, and extract sand & gravel from river bed) is needed
-Improve connectivity (small road, bridge, culvert, boat) to have an immediate
access to safe sites/hospitals/ schools/food security, and early warning system
to better inform climate change risk management.
Developing Nepal’s Strategic
Program for Climate Resilience
(SPCR)
Adaptive Capacity Assessment –
Sectoral
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Adaptive Capacity – Urban Settlement and Infrastructure
Level / issues
Knowledge
Mechanisms
Resources
Impediments
National level
Generic and
superficial
Ad-hoc, shortterm, nonstrategic
HR –
available but
not trained
F – weak
T– fair
Low priority to risks
with higher magnitude
District level
Some
knowledge
Weak
Weak
No elected
representative
No strong response
mechanisms ,
Resources are shared
Community
level
Weak
Weak
Very little (or
no)
Enforcement
Adaptive Capacity Assessment – Public Health
Level / issues
Knowledge
Mechanisms
Resources
Impediments
National level
Problems are
well
identified but
not the
solutions
Ad-hoc, shortterm, nonstrategic
HR –
available but
not trained
F – weak
T– fair
Low priority to risks
with higher magnitude
District level
Some
knowledge
Weak
Slightly better
No elected
representative
No strong response
mechanisms ,
Resources are shared
Community
level
Weak
Weak
HR available
Implementation
framework
Adaptive Capacity Assessment – Water and Energy
Level / issues
Knowledge
Mechanisms
Resources
Impediments
National level
(sectoral:
Ministry,
department/ Non
governmental)
Good among
some of the
top
bureaucrats
Not enough
HR is good but
need training
Financially week
- Policy / processes
yet to be set
- Knowledge transfer
weak
- Overlapping of
mandates
District level
Knowledge
gap
Weak
Weak
-No elected
representative
-Week coordination
among stakeholders
Weak
Very little
- No elected
representative
- No dedicated HR
Community level Weak
Adaptive Capacity Assessment – Climate Induced Disaster
Level /
issues
Knowledge
Mechanisms Resources
Impediments
National level
(sectoral:
Ministry,
department/
Non
governmental)
Good among
bureaucrats
involved in
DRM
Not enough
HR is good but
need training
Financially week
- Policy / processes yet to be
set
- Knowledge transfer weak
- Week Institutional
framework / no risk
management capacity
District level
Knowledge gap
(govt.) good in
some NGOs
Weak (some
initiation is
started in
Udayapur)
HR, fund,
equipments not
enough
-No elected representative
-Response mechanisms need
strengthening.
-Not enough fund
-Week Institutional
framework / No risk
management capacity
Community
level
Good in some
NGOs
Weak
No dedicated HR
in VDC
Week Institutional framework
/ No risk management
capacity
Adaptive Capacity Assessment – Agriculture and Food Security
Level / issues
Knowledge
Mechanisms
Resources
Impediments
National level
(sectoral:
Ministry,
department/ Non
governmental)
Some generic
knowledge but
sparse
Weak
HR – weak/fair
Finance – weak
Technical – fair
Policy / processes yet
to be set
No financial and
weak Human
Resources, No risk
management capacity
District level
Some knowledge Weak (some
initiatives in
Chitwan)
Weak
No elected
representative
No strong response
mechanisms
No risk management
capacity
Community
level
Weak (little in
chitwan but
weak in Sindhu)
Very little (or no)
No elected
representative
No risk management
capacity
Weak (some
initiatives in
Chitwan)
Adaptive Capacity Assessment – Forestry and Biodiversity
Level / issues
Knowledge Mechanisms Resources
Impediments
National level
(sectoral:
Ministry,
department/
Non
governmental)
Generic
knowledge
but still
sparse
Some
mechanisms
exist but still
short term
focus
HR –
available
but not
trained
Finance –
weak
Technical –
fair
Policy / processes yet to be set
Knowledge transfer
Weak , Weak implementation
framework
No risk management capacity
District level
Some
knowledge
Weak
Weak
No elected representative
No strong response
mechanisms
ownership (multiple and/or no)
No risk management capacity
Community
level
Weak
Weak
Very little
(or no)
No elected representative
No risk management capacity
Some Observations
• Increased social conflict and forced migration (not
visible though) due to water resources drying/declining
• Drought/increased pest/weeds increased food insecurity
• Upstream downstream relation
• Social /farmers security systems
• Connectivity to basic services
• Community based disaster preparedness – plan
developed but insufficient resources to implement
Proposed Interventions
• Water source protections
• Food security
• Churia area conservation and management
• Ecosystems based adaptation/management/ (approach:
payment for environment services)
• Support community based disaster preparedness
Developing Nepal’s Strategic
Program for Climate Resilience
(SPCR)
National Adaptive Capacity Assessment –
To be Finalised with TWGs
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
Developing Nepal’s Strategic
Program for Climate Resilience
(SPCR)
Definition of Priority Needs/ Investments
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SUMMARY OF PRIORITY RISKS:
1. Water Quantity and Quality (Extreme Events
and Climate Variability)
2. Food Security (Extreme Events and Climate
Variability)
3. Human Health (Extreme Events and Climate
Variability)
4. Ecosystem Health (Climate Variability)
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SPCR Interventions to Address Priority Risks
1. Water Quantity and Quality
a. Upgrading of Department of Hydrology and
Meteorology (DHM) services to monitor water
quantity/ quality and provide early information to
establish early warning systems – Recommended
in NCSA/NAPA
b. Integrated Watershed Management within priority
river system - Recommended in NAPA
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SPCR Interventions to Address Priority Risks
2
. Food Security (Extreme Events and Climate Variability)
a. Remote Community Connectivity to upgrade road/telephone
communications and emergency shelters to facilitate access
to emergency shelters, agricultural services, irrigation
technology and markets for agricultural
products/goods/service - Recommended in NAPA
b. Establish micro-finance and micro-insurance for vulnerable
farmers, communities and households - Recommended in
NCSA
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SPCR Interventions to Address Priority Risks
3. Human Health (Extreme Events and Climate
Variability)
a. Integrated Watershed Management within priority
river system to address risks from flood, pollution
and water/vector-borne disease - Recommended in
NAPA
b. Build/enhance capacity and improve coordination
for climate change risk management Recommended in NCSA and NAPA
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SPCR Interventions to Address Priority Risks
4. Ecosystem Health (Climate Variability)
a. Integrated Ecosystem Management to enhance
resilience of natural ecosystems - Recommended
in NAPA
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SUMMARY OF PROPOSED SPCR INTERVENTIONS :
1. Integrated Watershed Management within
priority river system to address risks from
flood, pollution and water/vector-borne
disease - Recommended in NAPA
2. Upgrading of Department of Hydrology and
Meteorology (DHM) services to monitor
water quantity/quality and provide early
information to establish early warning
systems – Recommended in NCSA/NAPA
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SUMMARY OF PROPOSED SPCR
INTERVENTIONS :
3. Build/enhance capacity and improve coordination
for climate change risk management
• establish Climate Change Risk Management
Facilitation Unit within MOE and climate change
risk management capacity within key institutions
(including PAF, Road Board, Water Board, etc) and
at sectoral, district, community and municipal levels
and within the private sector (Source: NCSA).
• Financing Long-term Resilience Measures establish sustainable financing to provide the
necessary resources that support short, medium and
long-term resiliency measures (Source: NCSA).
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SUMMARY OF PROPOSED SPCR
INTERVENTIONS /continued:
4. Remote Community Connectivity - upgrade road/telephone
communications and emergency shelters to facilitate access to
emergency shelters, agricultural services, irrigation technology
and markets for agricultural products/goods/service Recommended in NAPA
5. Establish micro-finance and micro-insurance for vulnerable
farmers, communities and households - Recommended in NCSA
6. Integrated Ecosystem Management in vulnerable area to
enhance resilience of natural ecosystems - Recommended in
NAPA
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
SUMMARY OF PROPOSED SPCR
INTERVENTIONS /continued:
PPCR TA – Enhance/Strengthen Fiduciary
Management Capacity of Ministry of Environment
(MOE)
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health
DISCUSSION
Drought/Food
Security
Flood/Vulnerable
Communities
Livelihoods/
Social Capital
Landslides/Critical
Infrastructure
Water Availability/
Health