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Climate Forecasts in Decision Making:
Perspectives from NOAA’s
Human Dimensions of Global Change
Research Program
Nancy Beller-Simms
March 10, 2004
Today’s Presentation
1. Goals for Talk
2. Background of the Program
3. Discussion of Specific Projects
4. Future work
Goals for Presentation
1. Introduction to Program
2. Highlight Social Science Aspect of Program
3. Foster Future Working Opportunities
NOAA/Human Dimensions of
Global Change Research
Goal: to advance our understanding of human response to
and planning for climate variability in the context of
improved scientific information
The program supports investigations of:
• how decision makers process new information about
climate;
• how they decide to change their practices in the context
of improved scientific information; and
• whom these changed decisions affect.
HDGCR Program Structure
Grants Program (i.e., NSF-style)
•Call for Proposals
•Competitive, Peer-reviewed
•External Mail Review
•Panel Review
External Programmatic Review
e.g., C&GC Panel, periodic PI Meetings
Science Planning
e.g., National Academy of Sciences, CCRI/
USGCRP
Sector
Projects have mainly focused on
– Agriculture
– Water Management
– Fisheries
– Rangeland Management
– Drought Policies
– Disease Outbreaks
– Forestry
– Energy
Geographic Region
Scale of Project Focus
Spatial Extent
Temporal
Global
State/Regional
• Primarily short-term
climate variability.
Intermediaries of
Information
Community
Intracommunity
Intrahousehold
• Beginning long-term
climate change.
Methodology
Human Ecology
•Political
•Economic
•Ecological
Ethnographic
•Surveys
•Focus groups
•In-depth interviews
Vulnerability mapping
•Surveys
•GIS mapping
Bio-economic modeling
•Fisheries modeling
•Crop-economic modeling
•Trade simulation
Decision models/mapping
•Interviews
•Institutional analysis
Research & Program Challenges
SCIENCE
• Physical and social science integration
• Temporal and spatial scales
• Incorporating non-academic knowledge
• Evaluation over long time horizons
INSTITUTIONAL
•Performance Measures (short time frame vs. long term
research investments)
Examples of Specific Projects
1. Water Management
2. Drought
3. Natural Hazard
4. Fisheries
5. Urban Preparations for Climate Change
NOAA/HDGCR
Water Management Projects
Study Locations:
Recently funded: Colorado, Arizona/Mexico
border, Oklahoma, Washington, New Mexico, Utah, Native American tribal
lands, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Brazil & Chile
Type of Water Management Jurisdictions Studied:
Small Community Water Systems (e.g. in Pennsylvania) to broader river
basins (e.g., Arkansas and South Platte)
Partners:
International (e.g., UNESCO-HELP); National (e.g., NOAA/
GEWEX/GAPP & USDA); State (e.g., Colorado Water Conservation Board);
Regional (e.g., Middle Rio Grande Water Conservancy District); Local (e.g.,
Pueblo of Zuni); and stakeholders (e.g., farmers)
Methodologies:
Combination of social and natural science
methodologies (e.g., obtaining broader stakeholder input from bi-national
workshops, climate hydrology water demand models, in-depth interviews)
Emerging Needs:
Synthesis of findings from studies followed by
discussions of next directions
An Exploratory Assessment of the Potential for
Improved Water Resource Management by
Increased Use of Climate Information in three
Western States and Selected Tribes (FY’99);
Climate Informed Water Bank (FY ’03)
Lead PIs: Charles Howe and John Wiener (University of Colorado)
Methodology: Climate-hydrology-water demand model of the South Platte
to experiment w/ alternative forms of water bank & adaptive strategies; Interviews
with water managers at all levels from ditch managers to the Bureau of
Reclamation, Corps of Engineers and State Engineer offices.
Partners/Clients:
FEDERAL: Corps of Engineers, Bureau of Reclamation, USDA Extension Service.
STATE: Colorado Water Conservation Board, State & Division Engineer Offices.
REGIONAL: Native Am. Govts. & water/agric departments, Southeastern Colorado,
Middle Rio Grande, & Lower Arkansas Water Conservancy Districts, Upper
Colorado River Commission, Natural Resources Conservation Service.
LOCAL: Individual ditch companies.
Contributions:
• Detailed decision calendar.
• Recommendations and results in reformatted info and clearer explanation of
existing website info, also links to other sources of requested climate info. Added
explanatory materials to climate data sets;
• Provided info to water bank administrator on low level of transactions and other
results;
• Extensive consultation with State Engineer Office on technical matters of the water
bank that led to more efficient bank practices such as the more geographically more
extensive “dry year lease-out” type of contract.
Reservoir Management Decision Calendar
Water Year Planning
Aug Sep Oct
Next Water Year Planning
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct
Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows
Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack data
Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions
Winter releases based on Jan/Feb snowpack data
Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions
Peak Flow Augmentation
fill curve
Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning
Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation
Peak Flow Augmentation releases
Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower
Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions
Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows
Planning Processes
Operational Issues
Climate and Weather Forecasts
Andrea J. Ray, Robert S. Webb, John D. Wiener, 2001
Photos: US Bureau of Reclamation, NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment
Use and Usefulness: A Comparative Study of
Seasonal Climate Forecasting - Systems in
Drought-affected Regions of Latin America
PIs: T Finan, MC Lemos, R Fox, A Leon and D Nelson
proasne.net/
drought_1998.JPG
Reducing the Negative
Consequences of Climate
Variability through the
use of Forecasts and
Vulnerability Analysis in
Cities: The Case of
Tijuana, Mexico
PI: Roberto SanchezRodriguez, University of
California, Santa Cruz
Co-PIs: Lina Ojeda and Nora
Bringas, El Colegio de la
Frontera Norte,
Cecilia Conde, UNAM
Mapping Vulnerability
Disaste rs
Data Bases
1972-2001
¥Events,
¥Damages
¥Consequences
¥Actions
C e nsus Data
1990
2000
De taile d case study
Colonia 3 de Octubre
urbanizat ion, social
processes, assets
Haz ardous Are as
Land slides (Radius)
Flooding
Urban Growth
Aero photos
72, 89, 94, 2000
Satellite image 2001
GIS
Watershed Analysis
¥Urban Growth 1972-2000
¥Land Use
¥M odifications to the landscape
¥Hazardous Areas
¥Urban M arginality
¥Vulnerability Analysis
Inte rvie ws
Hazardous areas
¥Social profile
¥Risk perception
¥Assets
Inte rvie ws
Decision makers
¥Use climate forecast
¥Risk perception
Urban Data
Public services
Developments
Drainage
Landscape
Soils, geology,
hydrology, vegetation.
topography
C lim ati c Variability
Extreme precipitation
ENSO
Climatic Variations and the
International Management of the
North American Pacific Salmon
Fishery: A Game Theoretic
Perspective
K. Miller and R. McKelvey
ESIG/NCAR
Mathematical game model
developed to simulate
negotiation patterns, changes
in fish stock, and the effects
of scientific information
Sampling of Factors
Included in Model
Fish characteristics (spawning
stock, size of offspring, location
of fishing grounds, etc.)
Salmon spawned in one
area, harvested in another
Motivation for study:
Aggressive harvesting led
to breakdown of
cooperation between US
and Canada
Environmental factors (including
climatic regime shifts)
Cooperative and competitive
payoffs to players
Quality and accessibility of
information
Results provided to policy
makers & stakeholders in region
Used by UN Food & Agriculture
Organization at international
meeting on management of
shared fish stocks
Results used as state-of-the-art
advice for future talks on
shared fishery regimes
Material to be used in further
development of Law of the Sea
regarding fisheries
“The report . . . helps to provide a context for the work products that [NMFS] provides [to] the [Pacific
Salmon] Commission. Insight gained from this analysis should help to facilitate [future] negotiations
[between the U.S. and Canada].”
-Robert Kope (team leader of the Salmon Harvest Group, Northwest Fisheries Science Center)
Climate Change Information for Urban Policy
and Decision Making
PI: Roberta Balstad Miller (CIESIN, Columbia University)
Co PIs: W. Christopher Lenhardt, CIESIN/Columbia University, Robert Downs,
CIESIN/Columbia University, William Solecki, Montclair State University,
Cynthia Rosenzweig, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NASA
Future
1. Adaptation/coping strategies
2. Integration of program with other programs
(RISA, USDA?, GAPP, CLIVAR)
3. Determining gaps and next steps
For further information contact:
Nancy Beller-Simms
Program Manager
301-427-2089 x180
Photo by Corinne Valdivia
[email protected]
http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/mpe/csi/econhd/index.htm