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Equity and Global Climate Change Developing Countries and the Climate Change Challenge Alistair Maclean, Australian Embassy The Climate Change Challenge Article 2 of the UNFCCC provides: – “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropgenic interference with the climate system.” We don’t know what the stabilisation level should be But we do know that the level of reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol targets are but a small step in that direction We do know that global emissions will continue to grow, irrespective of the Kyoto targets Emissions Growth Developed countries accounted for approximately 46% of emissions in 1995 By 2010, developing countries will account for around 55% of global emissions The environmental objective of the UNFCCC cannot be achieved without developing country participation All countries will feel the impact of global warming irrespective of their historical contribution Arguments for developing country participation Environmental arguments Article 2 of the UNFCCC growth of developing country emissions carbon leakage (a major concern) equity and responsible government agrument economic welfare argument Arguments invoked against developing country participation UNFCCC calls on developed countries to take the lead developed countries are historically responsible for the build-up of GHG levels per-capita emissions in developing countries remain lower developing countries should not have their economic development curtailed Carbon Leakage Possible relocation of carbon-intensive industries to non-Annex I countries may lead to leakage of up to 20 per cent (IPCC WG3) Major political issue for carbon-intensive economy like Australia Net loss to environment if technology in host country more emissions intensive Combatting climate change consistent with development lower emissions technologies can have significant economic benefits and many “no regrets” opportunities exist There are potentially large economic gains through international emissions trading for developing countries once they take on targets energy price reform can reduce emissions while generating economic efficiencies Australia’s Position Developing country participation is essential for: environmental equity reasons reasons international competitiveness reasons political reasons Some Practical Challenges identifying equitable commitments overcoming uncertainties associated with forecasting GHG emission levels identifying incentives for developing countries to participate The Path Forward all countries need to be thinking more about these issues bring them into the mainstream negotiations grasp opportunities to address genuinely the climate change problem
