Download Partnership for the Delaware Estuary

Climate Adaptation in the Delaware Estuary:
Risks, Opportunities and Tough Choices
Danielle Kreeger
Partnership for the Delaware Estuary
June 23, 2010
EPA Climate Ready Estuaries
The CRE Program works with the National Estuary
Programs and other coastal managers to:
• Assess climate change vulnerabilities
• Develop and implement adaptation strategies
• Engage and educate stakeholders
• Share lessons learned with other coastal managers
DK 6/23/10
Climate Ready Approach
Inventory
Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Options
Environmental
Predictions
DK 6/23/10
Estimate
Future Status and
Ecosystem Services
Rank Vulnerabilities
and Options
Recommendations
Sharing and
Next Steps
Environmental Predictions
Temp
Salinity
Sea Level Rise
Storms
Example Effects on Example Resources
Water
Habitats
Living Resources
Work Groups
Climate Adaptation Work Group (CAWG)
Delaware Estuary Pilot
STAC-affiliated; Chair: Najjar
Vulnerability
and Options
Tidal Wetland Sub-group
Future Status
Shellfish Sub-group
Velinsky & Kreeger
Kreeger & Kraeuter
Drinking Water Sub-group
Rankings
Connolly
Predictions & Modeling Team
Recommendations
Najjar
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
Millions of 1,200
Liters 1,000
Processed 800
600
400
200
0
$
1
2
4
6
8
Natural Capital Team
Series1
10
Years After Planting
15
30
Cole
DK 6/23/10
Temperature
A2
B1 = Low Emissions
A2 = High Emissions
B1
A2
B1
oC
B1
A2
Early
Century




Mid
Century
Late
Century
More warming in summer than winter
Scenario differences minor until late century
However, late century scenario differences very important for life
Due to climate momentum, we must plan for warmer conditions
May 13, 2010
Precipitation
Annual Precipitation Change
25
 More precipitation,
especially in cooler
seasons
20
15
Precipitation Change %
 Models are less in
agreement for
summer
Annual
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
May 13, 2010
B1 11-30
A2 11-30
B1 46-65
A2 46-65
B1 80-99
A2 80-99
Sea Level Rise – Global
(0.5 to 1 m)
(AR4)
(AR4)
All GCMs, all
scenarios (TAR)
GCM average, all
scenarios (TAR)
TAR full range (with
land ice uncertainty)
Source: Church et al. (2008)
Sea Level Rise – Local
(0.5 to 1.5 m or more)
Higher local rises expected due to:
• Changing ocean currents
• Sinking of the land
• Other factors
May 13, 2010
Source: Yin et al. (2009)
Growing Season Length
Growing Season
60
Days
A2
50
40
30
A2
B1
B1
20
10
0
3 Mid Century 4
5
Late Century6
 Opposite pattern for number of frost days
May 13, 2010
Case Studies
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Vulnerability
and Options
Future Status
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Rankings
Recommendations
Drinking Water
Tidal Wetlands – Why?
A Signature Trait of System
Near Contiguous Band
Diverse: Freshwater Tidal Marshes
Brackish Marshes
Salt Marshes
Nature’s Benefits
Flood Protection
Water Quality
Fish and Wildlife
Natural Areas
Carbon Sequestration
Tidal Wetlands
Long-standing Concerns
Degradation
Conversion and Loss
Growing Concerns
Sea Level & Salinity Rise
Storms
Sediment budget
Living Shorelines 2008
DK 6/23/10
Tidal Wetlands – Fair to Poor Condition
Severely
Stressed
35%
Minimally
or Not
Stressed
17%
Moderately
Stressed
48%
Slide from Chris Bason and Amy Jacobs
Tidal Wetland Projections – PDE & IEc
2000
2100
•
•
•
•
Conversion of >40,000 ha Uplands to Tidal Wetlands
Conversion of >100,000 ha Tidal Wetlands to Water
Net Loss of 26% of Existing Tidal Wetlands
Ecosystem Services Losses >> Acreage Losses
DK 6/23/10
Tidal Wetlands – Vulnerabilities
Top Climate Concerns
• Sea Level Rise
“Drowning” Wetlands
• Can’t keep pace, no where to go
• Interactions with nutrients,
sediment deficits, etc.
•
Salinity
Sea Level
Rise
Precip &
Storms
• Salinity Rise
•
•
Biota intolerant of high salt
Temperature
Change
Tidal Wetland
Vulnerabilities
Carbon
Dioxide
Precipitation and Storms
Increase in intensity & frequency
• Erosion risks
•
DK 6/23/10
Tidal Wetland Vulnerability
Freshwater Tidal Marshes
DK 6/23/10
• Salinity Rise
• Barriers to Landward Migration
• Others: Tidal Range, Seasonal Drying/Wetting
Salt Marshes
•
•
•
•
Sea Level Rise
Storms and Wind Wave Erosion
Barriers to Landward Migration
Others: Seasonal Wetting/Drying, Invasives
Tidal Wetlands – Adaptation Options
•
•
•
•
•
•
Protection of Natural Buffers
Structure Setbacks
Living Shorelines
Strategic Retreat
Managing Water Flows (salinity)
Managing Sediments
Wetland Tough Choices
• Where will they be converted
to open water?
• Where can we save them ?
• Where is strategic retreat the
best option?
Needs
Geospatial Approach
• Regional Sediment Budget Linked to Tidal Wetland Ecosystem Model
• LIDAR, Land Use, Modeling and Climate Monitoring Data
• Assessment Methods to Prioritize Adaptation Tactics
•
DK 6/23/10
Next Generation Living Shorelines
Soft Armoring With Natural Communities
DK 6/23/10
Tidal Wetland - Recommendations
Identify and protect suitable wetland
migration areas
Restore to slow erosion and marsh loss
Develop indicators and track impairments
from climate through monitoring
Identify special protection or management
areas – prioritize action
Educate resource managers about the
importance of wetlands and climate risks
Titus and Wang, 2008
http://maps.risingsea.net/New_Jersey.html
DK 6/23/10
Case Studies
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Vulnerability
and Options
Future Status
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Rankings
Recommendations
Drinking Water
DK 6/23/10
Bivalves – Why?
•
Abundant Native Species - Headwaters to Ocean
• Provide Many Benefits (Ecosystem Goods and Services)
• Excellent Environmental Indicators
• Current Populations are Below Carrying Capacity
DK 6/23/10
11 Other Species of
Freshwater Unionid
Mussels
Bivalves of the Delaware
Corbicula fluminea
Elliptio complanata
Rangia cuneata
Mya arenaria
Geukensia demissa
Mytilus edulis
Ensis directus
DRBC
Crassostrea virginica
Mercenaria
mercenaria
Nature’s Benefits
Bivalve Shellfish are
“Ecosystem Engineers”
Mussel Beds
DK 6/23/10
CTUIR Freshwater Mussel Project
Oyster Reefs
Kreeger
Bivalves – Issues
Rutgers HSRL
Oyster Disease
and Salinity
Susan Ford,
Rutgers
HSRL
www.livingclassrooms.org/lbo/dermo/oyster2.jpg
Bivalve Projections – Oysters
Can they be maintained until they might see better conditions?
1000
No Help
With Help
1758
900
Longer
Growing
Season
800
Number per Bushel
700
600
2 Recruitment
Events
500
400
Intertidal Niche
Expansion?
300
200
100
Point of No Return
Oyster
Spat
Mean Oyster
Mean Spat
Historical data from Rutgers Haskin Shellfish Laboratory
5
7
2060
Year
3
2030
53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
Today
0
Bivalves – Issues
Freshwater
Mussels are
Imperiled
DK 6/23/10
Bivalve Projections – FW Mussels
Shifting Species Ranges, But No Dispersal
Patchy, Impaired
Elliptio complanata




Rare
Extirpated
Strophitus undulatus
Alasmidonta heterodon
State Conservation Status
NJ
Scientific Name
Scientific Name
ALASMIDONTA HETERODON
DWARF WEDGEMUSSEL
Endangered
Endangered
Critically Imperiled
ALASMIDONTA UNDULATA
TRIANGLE FLOATER
Extirpated ?
Threatened
Vulnerable
ALASMIDONTA VARICOSA
BROOK FLOATER
Endangered
Endangered
Imperiled
ANODONTA IMPLICATA
ALEWIFE FLOATER
Extremely Rare
no data
Extirpated ?
ELLIPTIO COMPLANATA
EASTERN ELLIPTIO
common
common
Secure
LAMPSILIS CARIOSA
YELLOW LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Vulnerable
LAMPSILIS RADIATA
EASTERN LAMPMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Imperiled
LASMIGONA SUBVIRIDIS
GREEN FLOATER
no data
Endangered
Imperiled
LEPTODEA OCHRACEA
TIDEWATER MUCKET
Endangered
Threatened
Extirpated ?
LIGUMIA NASUTA
EASTERN PONDMUSSEL
Endangered
Threatened
Critically Imperiled
MARGARITIFERA MARGARITIFERA
EASTERN PEARLSHELL
no data
no data
Imperiled
PYGANODON CATARACTA
EASTERN FLOATER
no data
no data
Vulnerable
STROPHITUS UNDULATUS
SQUAWFOOT
Extremely Rare
Species of Concern
Apparently Secure
DE
PA
Bivalve Projections – Ribbed Mussels
Losing Marsh Habitat
Bivalves – Vulnerability
Oyster Reefs
DK 6/23/10
• Salinity Driven Disease Epizootics
• Others: Food, pH?
Salt marsh Mussel Beds
• Loss and Degradation of Wetland Habitat
• Others: Food, PH?
Freshwater Mussel Beds
• Range Shifts with No Dispersal
• Habitat Degradation (T, storms, fish hosts)
Shellfish Tough Decisions
Which species and associated benefits can be sustained?
Which should we invest in? (since funding will always be limited)
DK 6/23/10
Bivalves – Adaptation Options
DK 6/23/10
Oyster Shellplanting
Propagate Mussels
Living Shorelines
Fish Passage for
Mussels
Riparian
Restoration
Bivalves – Adaptation Options
Also….
• Flow Management
• Water Quality
Management
• Monitoring & Research
DK 6/23/10
Bivalves – Recommendations
• Plant shell to sustain oyster populations. Shell planting successfully
increases recruitment and sustains oysters.
• Rebuild reefs and beds of other native species. Use hatcheries and
relocation programs, along with habitat enhancements such as dam removals,
riparian reforestation, and living shorelines.
• Develop climate indicators that track bivalve populations. Climate studies
are also needed.
• Educate the resource management community regarding the effects of water
quality and quantity on bivalves and the importance of bivalves for watershed
health.
A coordinated, watershed-based approach to bivalve restoration and
climate adaptation is recommended due to positive feedbacks on
system health and resilience.
DK 6/23/10
Case Studies
Delaware Estuary Pilot
Vulnerability
and Options
Future Status
Tidal Marshes
Bivalve Shellfish
Rankings
Recommendations
Drinking Water
Climate Change +Other Changes
DK 36
•Marcellus Shale •Ecological Flows
•Spills,
NRDA
•Dredging
Added Complexity
•Withdrawals
•Wind Farms
•Land Use Change
•Development
•Emerging Pollutants
DK 6/23/10
Delaware Estuary Climate Change
• Not all changes to natural resources will be damaging,
but there will be many more losers than winners
• Need a Paradigm Shift: Restore for the future rather than
for the past
• Adaptation will require investment to protect lives and livelihoods.
• Proactive investment today will also save money in the long term due
to compounding of ecosystem services
DK 6/23/10
Immediate Adaptation Actions
text
•
•
•
•
Protect buffers, plant shell, and drinking water infrastructure
Climate monitoring plan – tidal wetlands & bivalve shellfish
Hydrodynamic models – fill information gaps
Geospatial framework – tidal wetland priority areas
text
•
•
•
•
Assess stream and shoreline conditions – priority restoration
Educate management community about Estuary resources
Identify special protection or management areas
Consider policy changes needed to facilitate CC adaptation
http://www.delawareestuary.org/science_projects_climate_ready_products.asp
Delaware Estuary Pilot
- End -
Many Other Issues
Timing of Shorebird Migration and
Horseshoe Crab Spawning
Website slides are from the Delaware Shorebird Project
and the Horseshoe Crab Conservation Network
Drinking Water – Why?
• Drinking water for >16 million
• Philadelphia – 1.4 million
• New York City
DK 6/23/10
Drinking Water – Concerns
Quantity:
95% used for power generation
and industry
Anticipated population growth of
83% by 2100
Quality:
Industrial discharges
Stormwater runoff
Agriculture runoff
Abandoned mine runoff
Marcellus Shale effluents
Headwater forest and buffer losses
DK 6/23/10
Drinking Water Vulnerabilities
• Erosion of infrastructure
• Obsolete Supply Systems
DK 6/23/10
• In direct path of flooding,
storm surges, and sea level rise
Effects on Drinking Water
Flooding /
Storm Surge
Precipitation
Changes
• Degraded source water quality
• Salinity Intrusion
Salinity Rise
Drought
• Power Outages
• Customer Supply Issues
Sea Level
Rise
Drinking Water
Vulnerabilities
Wild Fires /
Lightening
DK 6/23/10
Drinking Water Tough Questions
• How can we maintain low salinity in the upper estuary?
• Will more reservoirs be needed and where?
• Where should infrastructure be protected?
Drinking Water – Adaptation Options
DK 6/23/10
•
Infrastructure protection
•
Resilient Materials , Modern Upgrades
• Minimize water demand
•
Water Efficiency, BMP’s
• New treatment & distribution system
•
Able to with-stand inundation
• Prevent increased stormwater runoff
• Protect source water with forests and buffers
• Disinfection of wastewater