Download Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion

Environmental Security:
The Impacts of Climate Change
in the Arctic
Björn Gunnarsson, Ph.D
Rector
RES | the School for Renewabale Energy Science
Akureyri, Iceland
[email protected]
www.res.is
The Arctic Region
The Arctic Region
Why this Interest in the Arctic?
Arctic holds about 25% of “Undiscovered Petroleum”
(USGS World Petroleum Assessment, 2000)
Satellite Image Courtesy NASA
Proven World Reserves-to-Production Ratio
at End 2004 (Years)
Fossil Fuel Reserves
200
164 yrs.
Grand-children
Your
World
R/P ratios are:
Oil = 40.5 years;
Natural Gas = 66.7 years;
Coal = 164 years
100
 U.S. R/P ratios are:
Oil = 11.1 years;
Natural Gas = 9.8 years;
Coal = 245 years
66.7 yrs.
40.5 yrs.
0
Your
• The R/P ratio is the number
of years that proved
children reserves would last at
current production rates.
Oil
Gas
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005
Coal
Production
Declining Resource Production
production gap!
Time
Presentation Content
A. Climate Change & Rapidly Changing Arctic
Environment
B. Climate Change Impacts on the Exploitation and
Transport of Fossil Fuels in the North
C. Climate Change Impacts on Shipping in the
Arctic Ocean
A. Climate Change & Rapidly
Changing Arctic Environment
Global Warming
What is 4oC Difference?
Temperature change (oC)
4oC
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
4oC
The Rapidly Changing Arctic
Environment
• The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and Arctic
Human Development Report (AHDR)
• Global Climate Models (GCM) predict that the avg.
temperature in the Arctic could rise as much as 3-9 °C in
the next 100 years (IPCC)
• Changes in climate and environmental conditions, prey
abundance/distribution and bioaccumulation of persistent
organic pollution/heavy metals pose a real threat to
indigenous people in the Arctic that decrease their
options for sustainable development and endanger their
existence (AMAP, CAFF, PAME)
Global Warming by 2°C
Surface Reflectivity
• White snow and ice reflect most of the solar energy that
reaches the surface back to space (or 85-90%). Melting
back of snow and ice reveals the darker land (reflecting
20%) and ocean water (reflecting 10%) beneath, which
absorb most of the sun's energy. This warms the surface
further, causing faster melting, which in turn causes more
warming.
• Forests are projected to expand northward into areas that
are currently tundra. Taller, darker, and more textured
forests absorb more solar energy than tundra.
• Soot, from burning of fossil fuels, darkens the surfaces of
snow and ice, causing them to reflect less of the sun's
energy, thus further increasing warming.
Surface Reflectivity
Local GHG Emissions in the Arctic
• Large amount of carbon is currently stored (trapped) as
organic matter in the permafrost that underlies much of
the Arctic. During the summer, when the surface layer
(active layer) thaws, organic matter starts to decompose,
releasing methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the
atmosphere, increasing the warming trend. More warming
causes increased releases of CO2 and CH4 from the
permafrost.
• Release of large quantities of methane hydrates, trapped
in coastal permafrost at shallow depths in ocean
sediments, would have very large climate impacts.
Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice
• Arctic sea ice is a key
indicator of climate
change, affecting surface
reflectivity, cloudiness,
humidity, exchanges of
heat and moisture at the
ocean surface, and ocean
currents
• Changes in sea ice have
enormous environmental,
economic, and social
implications.
Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice
Arctic Sea Ice
Extent: 3% decrease
per decade
Multi-year
ice/perennial pack
ice: 7% decrease per
decade in area extent
Thickness: 14-32%
reductions reported
General increase in
the length of the ice
melt season
Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice
Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice
Sea-Ice Melting
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, U.S.A.
Sea-Ice Melting
4.3
4.3million
millionsqsqkm
km
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, U.S.A.
Rapidly Changing Arctic
Environment
• Reduced sea ice thickness
and extent
• Warming of the Arctic
Oceanic waters
• Thawing of previously
frozen ground
• Increased river flows in
Siberia
• Increases in precipitation
• Record low level of
stratospheric ozone
• Increases in storm surges
and coastal erosion
• Winter temperatures
increasing
• Increases in ground levels of
ultraviolet radiation
• Variations in the ranges of
animals and ecosystems
What 2°C Means for the Arctic
(WWF)
• Continued northward movement of commercial fish stocks, and
a potential increase of productivity in Arctic waters.
• Ice-free coastlines during summer along the northern coast of
Russia, potentially Greenland and most of North America, and
significantly less winter sea ice.
• Disappearance of up to 60% of existing tundra habitat, replaced
by boreal forest and/or polar desert.
• Corresponding decreases in reindeer/caribou populations.
• Most likely, declines of 30% or more in populations of polar
bears; similar declines for walrus and ice-loving seals; continued
declines for Arctic seabirds such as the ivory gull.
B. Climate Change Impacts on
the Exploitation and Transport
of Fossil Fuels in the North
Arctic Fossil Fuels Resources
Economic and Political Drivers for
Natural Resource Exploitation in
the Arctic
• Arctic oil and natural gas - geopolitical necessity for
Western Europe to develop alternative energy supplies
to those traditionally available from the Middle East –
EU´s future energy security
• Growing competition for Middle East energy reserves by
China and India – high oil prices
• Growing political uncertainty surrounding availability of
Middle East oil reserves due to security considerations in
the Middle East
Economic and Political Drivers for
Natural Resource Exploitation in
the Arctic
• Transport of various metals, mineral fertilizers, timber,
coal, and fish and other marine products. Altogether,
exports of oil, natural gas and other natural resource
products from the Russian Arctic makes up a high
percentage of Russia's foreign currency (60%)
• In 2004, Russia's real gross domestic product (GDP)
grew by about 7.0%, surpassing avg. growth rates in all
other G8 countries, and marking the country's 5th
consecutive year of economic expansion – fueled
primarily by increased energy exports and high world oil
prices
Economic and Political Drivers for
Natural Resource Exploitation in
the Arctic
Oil and gas development in the Arctic Russia currently
suffers from lack of export routes – marine transportation
using NSR is a vital alternative
Oil Exploitation in the NW Russia
Oil and Gas Pipelines in Russia
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
• Resource Extraction Infrastructure - As frozen ground
thaws, oil and natural gas extraction and production
facilities, power stations, pipelines, buildings, roads,
railroads, airports, river and harbor terminals and other
energy and industrial facilities will increasingly become
destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding,
maintenance, and investment.
• Narrow Weather Windows, Logistics & Transportation Transportation of oil and gas (coal) will increasingly by
disrupted by the shortening of the periods during which ice
roads and tundra are frozen sufficiently to permit travel.
Northern communities that rely on frozen roadways to
truck in supplies are also being affected.
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
• Oil Spills - Damage to oil and gas pipelines in the permafrost
zone presents a particularly serious situation; 16 breaks
were recorded on the Messoyakha-Norilsk pipeline in
Siberia in 2003. In the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous district of
Siberia 1702 accidents involving spills occurred and more
than 640 km2 of land were removed from use in one year
because of soil contamination (ACIA, 2004).
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
Permafrost Thawing
• Other Impacted Infrastructure - Permafrost thawing also
affects other infrastructure, i.e. could adversely affect
sanitation infrastructure and drinking water quality, limit
efficient freshwater delivery, and cause direct damage to
facilities and lead to adverse impacts on human health.
• Need for New Design - Future energy exploitation
development will require new design elements to account
for ongoing warming that will add to construction and
maintenance costs.
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
Increased Melting of the Greenland
Ice Sheet
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
• Thinner, less extensive sea ice creates more open water,
allowing stronger wave generation by winds, thus
increasing wave-induced erosion along Arctic shores.
When the buffer provided by the shore ice has been lost,
the full force of ocean waves are allowed to surge against
the coastline and coastal villages.
• Coastal regions with underlying permafrost are especially
vulnerable to erosion as ice beneath the seabed and
shoreline thaws from contact with warmer air and water.
Low-lying, ice-rich permafrost coasts are most vulnerable
to wave-induced erosion.
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
• Sea-ice decline, sea-level rise, storm surges, and
thawing coastal permafrost is very likely to force the
relocation of some coastal villages and create increasing
stress on others (causing substantial social impacts).
• Coastal erosion will pose increasing problems for some
ports, oil tanker terminals, and other industrial and
transportation facilities.
• Attempts to control this erosion will become increasingly
expensive as the surrounding coastline continues to
retreat. Many current coastal sites could become
uninhabitable.
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
• Low-lying coastlines experiencing land subsidence (i.e.
Beaufort Sea and Siberian coasts) are particularly
vulnerable.
• Soil slopes are made less stable by thawing permafrost,
and this will result in more landslides. In general, Arctic
coastal infrastructure will be impacted with more frequent
floods, mudslides, rockslides and avalanches. These
events are closely associated with heavy precipitation
events, high river runoff, and elevated temperatures.
Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion
• Reduced sea ice is likely to allow increased offshore
extraction of oil and gas, although increased ice
movements and wave action are likely to hinder some
operations.
• Increased exploitation and transport of oil and gas along
the Arctic coastline and on the Arctic shelf will increase
the danger of serious oil spills and other industrial
accidents.
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
• Recent studies suggests that the effects of oil spills in a
high-latitude, cold ocean environment last much longer
and are far worse than first suspected.
• Oil breaks down very slowly and is difficult to clean up in
ice-covered waters. Oil can be transported with drifting
ice over long distances.
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
Oil Spills in Arctic Waters
• The overall strategy for Arctic oil spills must be
preventative. New regulations for ships, offshore
structures, port facilities and other coastal activities, and
land-based structures must be designed to reduce the risk
of spills through enhanced construction standards and
operating procedures.
• Develop effective response strategies to deal with spills in
ice-covered Arctic waters and in Arctic tundra
environments.
River Flooding
Each year Arctic rivers carry about 4,200 km3 of freshwater into the
Arctic Ocean along with a calculated 221 million tons of sediments
Radioactive Pollutants
Air Pollution in the Arctic
Pollution in the Arctic
• Winds, rivers and ocean currents bring contaminants into
the Arctic. Contaminants emitted in northern industrial
areas are transported to the Arctic where they may
become concentrated as they move up the food chain
• As temperature rise, snow and ice accumulated over the
years and decades will melt, and the contaminants
stored within will be released in melt water
• POPs and heavy metals (mercury) become increasingly
concentrated as they move up the food chain, resulting
in high levels in polar bears, Arctic fox and various seals,
whales, fish, seabirds, and birds of prey. Arctic people
that eat those species are thus exposed to potentially
harmful levels of these pollutants
C. Climate Change Impacts
on Shipping in the Arctic
Ocean
Some Major Trade Routes by Sea
Future Arctic Trade Routes
The Northern Sea
Route (NSR)
Northwest Passage
The Northern Sea Route vs. Suez
Economic and Political Drivers for
NSR as a Container Traffic Route
• The NSR represents up to 50% saving of distance from
Northern Europe to Norteast Asia and the northwest
coast of North America, compared to routes via Suez
and Panama Canals – potentially large economic
benefits
• Will strengthen commerce and cooperation between the
European and Asian markets. The center of world trade
has already moved from the North Atlantic to the North
Pacific
• Trade distances, cargo volumes and ship sizes have all
increased. Large container ships are unable to sail into
ports designed for smaller ships
Economic and Political Drivers for
NSR as a Container Traffic Route
Much larger ships can sail through the NSR than the
Suez and Panama Canals. Container ships of the near
future (2015) will be 15.000-20.000 TEUs*, with a draft of
about 21 m. Largest oil tankers of today are about
450.000 dwt with a draft of 25 m.
* TEU = Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units
Economic and Political Drivers for
NSR as a Container Traffic Route
Central transshipment ports play an increasingly large
role in the coordination of logistics. Approx. 25-30% of all
containers used in international sea transport were
transshipped in 1999-2000, and the percentage is rising
sharply
The Atlantic-Arctic-Pacific Corridor
The Arctic Ocean of Today....
.. to the Arctic Ocean of the Future?
Arctic Shipping: Technical and
Environmental Issues
• A large scale global investment is needed of icebreakers,
aids to navigation, construction of a fleet of large powerful
ice-class cargo ships, and transshipment ports to transfer
cargo between ice-strengthened and non-ice-strengthened
ships
Arctic Shipping: Technical and
Environmental Issues
• Necessary infrastructure to provide safety, route
reliability, and environmental protection along the NSR,
including:
Real-time delivery of high resolution satellite data,
aviation services and ice reconnaissance, and data from
ground-based monitoring and forecasting platforms
Arctic Shipping: Technical and
Environmental Issues
Route optimization and icebreaker(s) assistance
Sophisticated communication system organized under
one umbrella for the entire length of the NSR (i.e. to
report of weather and sea-ice conditions)
Emergency preparedness, search & rescue and
emergency assistance
Pollution prevention and clean-up technologies
Political, Legal and Administrative
Issues regarding the NSR
The issue of sovereignty in an ice-reduced Arctic Ocean
– disputes over waterways and Arctic resources
Security issues – increased shipping will require an
increase in monitoring and enforcement of domestic and
international laws governing smuggling, environmental
standards and ship safety
Social, cultural, and environmental concerns are likely to
arise as marine access increases
Icebreaker fees – need to be calculated on the basis of
100% occupation
Political, Legal and Administrative
Issues regarding the NSRs
Insurance fees – need to consider thinning ice, optimized
route and advanced ice reconnaissance
The legal and regulatory framework – needs to be
customer friendly and reliable
Communication system – needs to be reliable
Demonstration of the advantages of the NSRs –
Russia/EU/North America should support commercial
NSR voyages by using ice-strengthened container ships;
feasibility studies
Thank You!
Readings
• Impact of a Warming Arctic – the 140 page synthesis
report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA),
Cambridge University Press, 2004; see www.acia.uaf.edu
• Reports of the various working groups of the Arctic
Council; see AC homepage.
Workshop Task 1
Base on what you know of the rapid climatic and
environmental changes already occurring in the Arctic
environment, what do you suggest should be done -- adapt
to the changing environment or/and try to mitigate at any
cost further changes. Give a detailed explanation for your
answer.
How do you define environmental security in the
Circumpolar Arctic? How will environmental risks likely
change in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic in the coming years?
Workshop Task 2
A meeting has been scheduled between the ministers of the
Arctic Countries to approve an international agreement or
protocol on how to manage the Arctic and Sub-Arctic
environments. You represent the ministers with full political
(bargaining) power.
What will be the main points of the new agreement? Why?
What will be the main concern or likely dispute and how will
this be resolved?
Do you think it is likely that such an agreement will ever see
the light of day? If yes then when? If no, why? and also
discuss the consequences.