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MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SECURITY Headaches for public policy EXAMPLE: THE HERBERT BRAUN DIAGRAM ON EFFECTS OF A MAJOR ENERGY BREAKDOWN (EG, NATION-WIDE OR VERY LARGE ELECTRICITY FAILURE) (Who is Herbert Braun??) THINGS BRAUN SAYS CAN CAUSE THIS • Storm or drought (eg, caused by climate change) • Nuclear accident • Cyberterrorism • Internal political/economic crisis (how?) • THINK OF MORE! THINGS BRAUN SAYS THIS CAN LEAD TO • • • • • Breakdown of economy/banking Ditto IT networks Ditto ‘international competitiveness’ Ditto health system THINK OF MORE!! IN SUM: • Military, terrorist, internal-political, human accident and natural forces can cause the problem • Military, law and order, economic, technological, and human dimensions of security can suffer as a result WHAT REMEDIES? (a) PRIORITIZING CAUSES • Which are more likely/frequent? • Which are likely to have bigger impact than others (always bigger, or wider range)? • Which are likely to have multiple impacts? • WHICH CAN WE DO ANYTHING ABOUT?? CAUSES: WHAT CAN WE DO? • State alone or with other states/institutions • State alone or with other kinds of actors • Eliminate, deter, divert, reduce (motive, target, impact, frequency) • GIVE EXAMPLES relevant for (i) cyberterrorism (ii) climate change DAMAGE: PRIORITIZING CONCERNS • • • • Vulnerability/exposure Robustness - survival, functioning Nature of (direct) consequences Seriousness/scale of consequences for (a) the state, (b) people, (c) the environment ((d) allies if any) • Likelihood, number and seriousness of secondary consequences (dominos) DAMAGE: WHAT CAN WE DO? • Reduce exposure (harden, disperse and diversify, find substitutes etc) • Increase robustness (material + human, objective + psychological) • Block/reduce direct losses • Block/reduce domino effects (firewalls, redundancy etc) • GIVE EXAMPLES for (a) health system (b) transport networks IS IT REALLY POSSIBLE? • Too complicated • Needs too much coordin’n/centraliz’n • Difficulty of relying on others (external, nonstate) • Constantly changing patterns and priorities: objective and subjective (problem of democracy!) • The real devil:money HOW TO DISTRIBUTE RESOURCES? • • • • • • • Traditional defence or new violence All violence vs. accidental+natural risks All ‘security’ probs vs permanent needs Frequent or exceptional risks Short-term or long-term risks Obvious or creeping/invisible risks Just for ourselves or for the world as a whole??