Download What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?

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Simulation modelling
Case study: Victoria WAS
Scenarios
Discussion
• Questions throughout please!
Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address
complex organizational and societal issues.
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What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?
Try something out
ahead of time…
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To learn the impact of
various actions
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To play out different
scenarios
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To gain understanding
and insight
…make better plans and decisions.
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whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach
• Whole system modelling
• Process as fundamental concept
• Physical substrate
• Behaviour/Control
• Stocks and Flows
• Coherence (user imputed causality)
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Model Builder
modelling suite
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Model Building Overview
• Interactive process for designing and
building models
design
• Build a customized model specific to
analytical needs
model coding
• Technology transfer may occur
throughout
calibration and
data assembly
scenario
building
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whatIf? Benefits
• Transparency
• Corporate Memory
• Scenario Management
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We have linked physical whole-economy
models
• Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF)
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all economy
energy end-use (residential, industrial…)
materials flows
• Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF)
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demography
land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas)
electricity generation
• Water Accounting System (WAS)
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water requirements
water provision
energy for water system
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Drivers and Interactions
• Demographics
• Land-use
• Electricity
production
• Water resources
and use
 a complete
water account
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Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’
• ‘Flow’ of physical implications
 integrates use and availability
 inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF
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Geographic Context
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Victoria is in southern Australia
Melbourne is the capital city of ~4
million people
3 key dams (each >106 Gl)
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Dartmouth (NE)
Eildon (N)
Thomson (SE)
• supplies most of
Melbourne
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Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria
overlap
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Melbourne
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Victorian historical data sources
• Water
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DWRV Water Resource Handbook
BRS 1985 Review
ABS Water Accounts (1994-97, 2001, 2005)
DSE State Water Report 2003
SoE 1988
MDBC reports – flows, dam levels
BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows
Energy intensity of water services; Energy used
• Demography
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Census 1966-2001; education statistics; health statistics
• Land-use
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Zoning Plan
historical maps of Melbourne
Census (2001)
• Energy
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ESAA generation/production capacity ~ 1995-2004
ABS Energy Accounts 1982-1991
specific energy consumption data 1974-1995
Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~1920-2004
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Water Account System - Description
• “Design Approach”
[Gault et al, Futures, 1987]
 “supply v demand” structure
 traceable physical relationships (coordination)
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Water Account System - Requirements
• water requirements
 by ~14 sectors
 in 79 Local Government Areas
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Water Account System - Availability
• water availability
 in 29 major river basins
 across 14 land use types
 into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration
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Water Account System - Disposition
• water puts and takes
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into/from rivers, dams, aquifers
centralised or self-extracted
desalination option
quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water
treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels
transfers between the 29 river basins
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Water Account System – Dam/River Balance
• water storage stock and river flows
 all additions and extractions
brought together
 diversions from river to dam
 release of storage down river
 river network included
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Water Account System – Energy Required
• energy for water services
 potable treatment & pumping
 treatment & pumping for recycling
(sewage, other discharges, stormwater)
 local re-use
 desalination
 inter-region transfers
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Key common assumptions
• population growth
 4.9 million by 2050
 Victoria in Future
• climate change
 “medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050
 CSIRO
• intensity of water use
 marginal increase response to climate change
• irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor
 DSE
• electricity consumption / generation
 growth at 2% pa per capita
 unchanged technology
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Other key scenario assumptions
• water end-use
 no change
 solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine
(2a, 2b)
(1a, 1b, 2c, 2d)
• in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing
dwellings
• water services
 conventional catchment
 desalination (to meet new demand)
 alternative
(1a, 2a, 2c)
(2b, 2d)
(1b)
• rainwater tanks
– in 20% dwellings
– 1 kL
• re-use of industrial wastewater
– 20% of flow
• re-use of wastewater at central treatment
– 20% of flow
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