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The Global Food Security Challenge
(www.worldbank.org/wdr2008)
GLDN for ECA, Dec 18th
World Development Report 2008
Critical Role of Agriculture in Food
Security
 In ensuring adequate food supply
 Global food supply and demand (and shocks)
 National food supply and demand for many
countries (Africa, China, India)
 In providing means for poor to access to
food
 75 percent of the world’s poor are rural, and
most depend on agriculture for livelihoods
 Essential role of agriculture in providing
subsistence and incomes of the poor
2
Major conclusion of
World Development
Report 2008:
Agricultural growth is
two to four times
more effective in
reducing poverty than
growth coming from
other sectors
Expenditure gains induced by 1%
GDP growth (%)
World Development Report 2008
Agriculture as a Powerful Engine for
Increasing Incomes of the Poor
Agricultural growth is especially
beneficial to the poor
8
6
Agriculture
4
2
0
Nonagriculture
-2
Low est 2
3
4
5
6
7
Expenditure deciles
8
9 Highest
3
World Development Report 2008
WHITHER GLOBAL SUPPLY
AND DEMAND?
4
Global Markets ̶ Supply Side
World Development Report 2008
Critical land and water constraints
Cropland
per capita of agricultural population
180
Europe &
Central
Asia
140
120
Latin
America
% of population in absolute water scarcity
70
Middle
East
East Asia
South
Asia
80
60
Sub
Saharan
Africa
40
60
Percent (%)
100
50
40
30
20
10
Sub
Saharan
Africa
20
2003
1997
1991
1985
1979
1973
1967
0
1961
Index of cropland per ag population (1961=100)
160
South
Asia
East Asia
Middle
East
Europe &
Latin
Central America
Asia
5
Global Markets ̶ Food Supply
World Development Report 2008
Growth rates of yields for major cereals in
developing countries are slowing
6
Average annual growth rate (%)
maize
5
rice
wheat
4
3
2
1
0
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
6
World Development Report 2008
Rising Energy Prices and Climate
Change
Price of Urea Fertilizer
($US/t)
Climate change will negatively
affect yields in the tropics, 2080
Source: Cline (2007)
Doubling of oil prices increases
grain prices by at least 20%
7
Global Markets: Demand Side
World Development Report 2008
Changing diets ̶ Rising demand for high value
products (and feed grains)
Developing and transitional
country exports
250
Meat
200
150
100
Horticulture
Cereals
50
0
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Value of exports (1980=100)
Kcal consumption/capita/day
(1981=100)
Developing and transitional
country consumption
350
Horticulture
300
Meat
250
200
150
Traditional
exports
100
50
0
1980
1990
2000
8
2004
World Development Report 2008
Demand for Grain for Biofuels is a
Major New Factor in Global Markets
Source: OECD and FAO, 2008
9
World Development Report 2008
Long-run Prices are Projected to Rise
with Current Investment Trends
Average and projected price of cereals
($US2000/t)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2008
Source: Rosegrant et al., 2008
2025
2050
2050 with
0.4% higher
growth in
yields
10
World Development Report 2008
Food Production—Continuing
Challenges in the 21st Century
A greater global challenge
 More from less
 The end of long-term falling food prices?
 Trade offs with the environment
Increased volatility
 Climate change, energy prices
 Future policies on biofuels, reserves, export bans
Inclusive growth
 Sharing benefits between producers and consumers
 Connecting smallholders to emerging markets
11
World Development Report 2008
INVESTING FOR FOOD
SECURITY
12
Requires Emphasis on Both Technological
and Institutional Innovations:
World Development Report 2008
Technological innovations
 Higher yield potential to revamp productivity growth
 Overcoming key resource constraints (water,
drought)
 Role of GMOs for poor farmers and consumers
 Substitution of fossil energy use
 Adaptation to climate change and reduced GHGs
Institutional innovations
 More efficient and inclusive supply chains
 Collective action by farmer organizations
 Risk management for more frequent price shock
13
World Development Report 2008
More and Better Investments in
R&D to Bridge Growing Divide
Agricultural R&D Intensity
2000 (% AgGDP)
Agricultural R&D as a Share
of Budget, 2000-04
Public Spending on Ag (% of Ag GDP)
Spending on Ag R&D (% of Ag GDP)
14
12
percent
10
8
6
4
2
0
Agriculture based
Transforming
Urbanized
14
Source: Pardey and Beintema,
World Development Report 2008
Recent Yield Advances Indicate the
Potential for R&D to Reverse Trends
15
World Development Report 2008
Implications for the Global
Community
 Do no harm
 Reform farm and biofuel subsidies
 Mitigation of climate change
Invest in global public goods
 R&D (CGIAR)
Get agriculture back on the agenda
 Reverse trend in foreign assistance
 Revamp national food and agricultural strategies
16