Download 2011 State of the world：INNOVATIONS THAT NOURISH THE PLANET

生態議題論述 2011 April
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Innovations in
understanding complex systems
鄭先祐 (Ayo)
國立臺南大學
生態科學與技術學系 教授
Ayo NUTN Web: http://myweb.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/
生態議題論述 2011
Five parts
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1. Innovations in understanding complex systems
2. Innovations in evaluating agricultural development
projects
3. Innovations in institutions to support people and the
planet
4. Innovations in governance
5. Innovations in policy reform
生態議題論述 2011
Staggering expansion
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In the last 50 years the gross world product has
exploded from roughly $7 trillion per year to nearly
$60 trillion.
This staggering expansion has had disastrous effects
on natural resources, both renewable and
nonrenewable.
By 2003, for instance, some 27% of the world’s marine
fisheries had already collapsed.
 Water is becoming scarce
 Rates of species extinction has far exceeded background
rates for decades.

生態議題論述 2011
Agriculture：one of the major culprits
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Agriculture is one of the major culprits(主要被告)
in this scenario.
Agriculture today accounts for 70% of water
withdrawals and 15% of green house gas
emissions – with nearly 75% of that emitted by
developing countries.
An additional 11% of total emissions are caused by
destruction of 13 million hectares of forest each
year, largely by agricultural encroachment.
生態議題論述 2011
Agriculture’s complexity
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1. Farming itself is complicated in ways that
nonfarmers can hardly grasp: (crop characteristics,
weather and microclimate, soil types and fertility,
pests and disease threats, field rotation schemes,
livestock/crop interactions, market demand)
2. Sustainable agriculture is more complex because
it does not take place in an economic vacuum.
(socioeconomic system)
3. Food production is embedded in and also
reshapes the natural environment.
生態議題論述 2011
Using computer models
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In particular, system dynamics models make it
possible to represent agricultural development as a
process involving many social, economic, and
environmental factors, and then to ask lots of “what
if?” questions.
It is possible to compare different policies across
various scenarios.
 For
example, to compare the use of organic and
chemical fertilizers.
生態議題論述 2011
Organic and chemical fertilizers
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Organic fertilizers can lead to higher soil quality
and yields as well as lower water consumption and
more carbon sequestration in the soil – thus
potentially playing a lead role in curbing the rise of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
Chemical fertilizers are likely to become less
competitive, especially for farmers in developing
countries.
生態議題論述 2011
Ecological agriculture
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The transition from current conventional and
traditional agriculture to ecological agriculture
requires better management of key resources such
as soil, biodiversity, and water, supplemented with
research and extension services.
These practices increase productivity, create
employment, and mitigate emissions.
Managing this transition will take money and time.
生態議題論述 2011
Agricultural investments (4 areas)
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1. Reduction of pre-harvest losses, currently estimated
to reach about 30% of total crop production
2. Reduction of post-harvest food losses through better
storage and processing in rural areas
3. Agriculture management practices for increased farm
productivity by making the transition to organic,
conservation, and agroecology farming. ($85—100
per hectare)
4. Research, development, capacity, and skill building for
sustainable agriculture.
生態議題論述 2011
Green investment vs. Business-as-Usual (BAU)
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
Green investment demonstrate why economic
development and natural resource exploitation should
not be considered analogous(同功的).
Assure greater food availability.
 While they result in slower economic growth due to
conservation of natural resources and low carbon production
in the short term, they are more sustainable over the long
term.
 More resilience(彈性), lower emissions, reducing
dependence on fossil fuels, and emphasize efficient and
sustainable use of natural resources, curtailing(減少) global
warming and resource depletion.

生態議題論述 2011
BAU development
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Accelerates consumption, which stimulates economic
growth in the short and medium term but extends and
worsens current trends of natural resource depletion.
And the long-term trend is frightening.
Once natural resource stocks start to decline severely,
the economy and employment begin to suffer because
of reduced production, higher energy price, and
growing emissions.
Additional consequences may include massive
migration driven by resource shortage, accelerated
climate change, and considerably higher rates of
extinction.
生態議題論述 2011
Green economy
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Total agricultural production increases.
Employment, including both direct and indirect jobs,
grows considerably.
A reduced demand for land indicates positive
synergies between ecological agriculture
investments and forest management.
Reduction of agricultural water demand.
生態議題論述 2011
Second-generation biofuels
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Up to 25% of agricultural and forestry residues are
estimated to be readily available for production.
Combined with the use of marginal lands, this
resource could create as many as a few million
jobs by 2030 and effectively support the transition
beyond oil.
The long-term maintenance of soil fertility through
“re-investing” all possible crop and biofuel
production residues as organic fertilizers.
生態議題論述 2011
R & D policies and action
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There are no longer any excuses, as tools are now
available to help inform new agricultural research
and development (R & D) policies.
Most countries will miss the deadline of 2015 for
all the Millennium Development Goals agreed to
in 2000, many of which have strong synergistic links
with agriculture, the environment, and society.
Firm and effective action is strongly needed to
change the present agricultural paradigm.
生態議題論述 2011
The actions
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The actions required will vary from place to place, as
agriculture depends heavily on local environments,
people, and other factors.
This is where tools that assess agricultural systems within
the wider context of the environment, society, and the
economy come in handy.
Playing out “what if?” development policy scenarios
with all interested stakeholders will allow visualization
and discussion leading to common understanding and
agreement on a way forward, with a grasp of the
intended and unintended consequences of given policy
choices.
生態議題論述 2011
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問題與討論
國立臺南大學 通識課程 2011年春
Ayo NUTN website:
http://myweb.nutn.edu.tw/~hycheng/
生態議題論述
2011 April