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Govert D. Geldof Geldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby VUPTI Meeting Taastrup, 9 June 2010 Presentation Climate Change Adaptation is complex? Top 5: 1. Accepting complexity 2. The power of practice 3. Making perceptions explicit 4. The importance of history 5. Story telling Conclusions Climate Change Adaptation Adaptation is not new: social and natural systems have always adapted to change New: pro-active adaptation (a hundred years) Complex? Climate Change Bifurcation Point Danger 2010 Time 2100 Arnhem Bifurcation point Nijmegen Complexity There are many uncertainties: Is there a bifurcation point? If yes: are we approaching the bifurcation point or did we already pass it? What measures do we have to take and what will be the effect? There are many people involved with different opinions: we depend on them (e.g. politicians & citizens) Etc. 1: Accept complexity It makes life simpler Paradox When we accept that we might fail, the probability of success will increase "Conceiving a safety without risk is like seeking love without courting the danger of rejection“ (Wildavsky, 1988) 2. The Power of Practice Complex processes can only be dealt with in practice Prudence: develop practical knowledge Theory Practice Example: maintenance 3. Making perceptions explicit People have different perceptions both about problem and solutions (→ complexity) Many projects fail because people involved pre-assume that other people have the same perception as they have Ask: What do you think the problem is? What is your role? What is your responsibility? Let’s adapt •Peak rain and flooding •Droughts – water shortage •Heat Island effect •Wind •Connection to other aspects of the urban environment (traffic, quality of housing, facilities, social safety, etc.) Dep of real estate City planning department Dep of street & traffic Citizens Organisations Private developers Schools Etcetera Perceptions become explicit when you visit concrete projects 4. The Importance of History In complex processes history does not fade away Planning like this does not work for complex processes Then Now Measure Measure Measure Measure Measure Measure Measure Measure “You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future” Golden Age Industrial Revolution Post war restoration Crisis and new beginning 5. Story telling Spatial organisation directs Water Agriculture Housing Leisure Water directs spatial organisation Agriculture Industrial Industrial Water storage Water storage Agriculture Natural areas Housing Leisure > Housing Leisure Natural areas Information Knowledge Theoretical concept 1 Story telling Theoretical concept 5 Theoretical concept 2 Theoretical concept 3 Theoretical concept 4 Generic Narrative Story 1 Story 5 Story 2 Story 3 Story 9 Story 4 Story 6 Story 7 Story 8 Specific Story n A good narrative A story with a head, a tail and a punch line Constructed out of the languages that people used to tell their stories (no scientific or political blabla) It is specific, but also includes generic elements Is recognised by the people that brought in the stories New scientific knowledge is connected to it Decision makers cannot ignore it Often: it includes a metaphor Residential area Lewenborg Theoretical concept 1 Story telling Theoretical concept 5 Theoretical concept 2 Theoretical concept 3 Theoretical concept 4 Generic Narrative about ponds, litter and social safety Story 1 Story 5 Story 2 Story 3 Story 9 Story 4 Story 6 Story 7 Story 8 Specific Story n Conclusions 1. When it is complex, accept that it is complex 2. Real integration is only possible in practice, so act as close to practice as possible and appreciate practitioners 3. Ask people involved specifically about their perceptions (goals, roles, responsibilities, etc.) 4. You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future: history will not fade away 5. Listen to stories and connect them to the theoretical concepts: constructing narratives Thanks for your attention …