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Understanding Ecosystem Thresholds in Global Change Living with climate change: are there limits to adaptation? Tyndall Centre and GECHS 2008 Dennis Ojima Robert Corell ([email protected]) THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT OUTLINE • Global Climate Change and Impacts • Impacts to Ecosystems • Adaptation Strategies THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Warming greatest at high latitudes • 5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 • Amplification of warming due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice) IPCC 2007 Signals from nature Lara Hansen / WWF Jeremy Little / University of Washington THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT Spring comes about 2 weeks earlier • Across the USA, tree swallows are nesting 9 days earlier than 40 years ago • Laying date is highly correlated with May temperature Source: Camille Parmesan PINE BARK BEETLE OUTBREAK MPB BASIC ECOLOGY (1) Predator – aggressive Bark Beetle (2) Co-evolution – host defenses Small weak predator / large dangerous prey Mass Attack strategy (3) Required synchrony of emergence at appropriate time of year (4) No diapause – direct Temperature Control of Seasonality Interesting question: Focus of seasonal temperature triggers for overwintering populations and synchronous emergence without diapause J. Logan A Concept for a Adaptation/Impacts Multi-Space A framing within which coping strategies are addressed 650 ppm 3.5 oC 550 ppm 3 oC 450 ppm 2 oC Sea Level Rise Ocean Acidification Now 385 ppm Biosphere Vulnerabilities Pine Bark Beetles Coral Bleeching Time Scale: This Century ADAPTATION DESIGN • Adaptive Management practices are local and need to take into account the complex, non-linear behaviour of socio-ecological systems • Use of appropriate scenarios and downscaling techniques of climate change effects • Full risk/uncertainty assessments • Projects need to be linked to capacity building & technology transfer • Co-development of an integrative management plan should treat the system as a socio-ecological system 25-40 yr. Implementation Plan Craft and Implement Long-Range Plan Controlling Projections Tease out Key Projections with Multi-Stresses Track 4 Quad Scenarios Develop the 4 Quad Scenarios with Drivers Set Time Scale Key Tracking Indicators and Evaluate Progress Progress Set the Time Scales visa Climate Conditions Downscale Downscale Key Parameters at needed Scale Frame the Frame the Context and Scale (cities, water, etc.) Problem A Coping/Adaptation Cascade A Process to Craft a Long-Term (i.e., 25-40 years) Continuously Up-datable Adaptation Plan Focused on Climate Change with Exacerbating Stresses Governance and “Well just Delay” Scenario 1. Scenario Details 2. 3. . . n GWG Conc. “Get with it” Scenario 1. Scenario Details 2. 3. . . n Policy Actions Aggressive Policy Action Weak to Little Policy Action 1.Scenario Details 2. 3. . . n Socio-Environmental “Lots” of Luck Scenario Processes Processes Respond Rapidly Easy Street Scenario 1. Scenario Details 2. 3. . . n 4 Quad Scenario Framework These Processes Respond very Slowly DECISION MAKING FRAMEWORK T1 Household goals, Initial conditions Political Economy, Institutions Household Decision-making Mitigation Change Scenarios Land Tenure Economy Adaptation Strategies (long-term) Land Use Ecosystem services Cooperation/ Enabling Mechanisms Demography Climate and other Environmental Influences Coping Tactics (short-term) Resilience / Vulnerability Infrastructure Galvin et al SUMMARY • Application of Adaptation Cascade in partnership with local communities, states, and other resource management entities • Development of Adaptive management strategies to deal Ecological Thresholds • Developing technological, scientific, socio-economic tools for addressing adaptation needs THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning http://www.heinzctr.org/NEW_WEB/PDF/ Adaptation_Report_October_10_2007.pdf THE H. JOHN HEINZ III CENTER FOR SCIENCE, ECONOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT