Why C-CIARN? • To connect researchers and decision-makers for more decision-relevant research • Coordination and collaboration between researchers and across disciplines • Engagement of broader research capacity • Visibility and voice for the community • Timely communication of findings and techniques C-CIARN Mission The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues. Agriculture Advisory Comm. C-CIARN Board NGOs Private Sector Federal Depts. $500,000 over 5 yrs. Through the Federal Impacts and Adaptation Research Program Universities National C-CIARN Coordinating Office Communities Steering Committee Prov/Terr agencies Agriculture (U. of Atlantic (Dal. U., Guelph) Forest (CFS • Edmonton) Halifax) Quebec (Ouranos, Montreal) Fisheries (DFO Prairies (U. of Nanaimo) Coastal Zone (BIO Dartmouth) U, Sudbury) Health (HC Ottawa) Landscape Hazards (GSC Water Resources (McGill U., Montreal) Ottawa) Sectors Regina) Ontario (Laurentian British Columbia North (Yukon College, Whitehorse) (UBC, Vancouver) Yukon NWT Nunavut Regions Partnerships: EARTHCARE Sudbury Towards an Adaptation Action Plan: Climate Change and Health in the Toronto-Niagara Region POLLUTION PROBE in partnership with Environment Canada Health Canada Ontario College of Family Physicians City of Toronto; City of Mississagua/Peel Health University of Toronto www.pollutionprobe.org/Reports/adaptation.pdf Extreme Temperatures: • Climate change would increase the frequency of hot days, (e.g., Toronto) leading to an increase in 239-835 additional heat-related deaths annually by 2080; 171-447 elderly in the TNR by 2020s Days Maximum Temperature Scenario CGCM1-GHG+A ensemble run TORONTO PEARSON (6158733) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 >=30 >=32 >=35 1961-90 2020s 2050s Scenario Period 2080s EFFECT OF CHANGE IN MEAN TEMPERATURES ON EXTREME HEAT EVENTS Extreme Weather Events • Warmer and more variable climate likely to cause more frequent and more intense severe weather events: • e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, floods, droughts • Potential health impacts: • direct physical injury or death (e.g., due to storms, floods, etc.) • psychological distress due to the loss or injury of loved ones and property • mass evacuations • moving into shelters • Consequences: • increased demands on emergency preparedness and community health and social services Air Quality Influence of Hot Weather on O3 • 1,925 premature deaths in Ontario annually; $1B costs to the economy • 2002 most smog alerts & days since 1993 • Offensive air masses could increase in frequency from 5% to 23% (29-39%) • Background ambient levels of O3 could double (+40 ppb) Vector-borne and Rodent-borne Diseases Imported Cases of Malaria in Canada, 1984-1997 3500 3000 2500 2000 Reported Low Estimate High Estimate 1500 1000 1996 1994 1992 1990 0 1988 500 1986 Malaria West Nile Virus Dengue Fever Lyme Disease Hantavirus 1984 • • • • • • West Nile Encephalitis, New York, 1999 • 59 reported cases, 7 deaths • 8,200 infections (3,500 - 13,000) 1,700 with fever • 277 confirmed positive birds • 218 confirmed positive mosquito pools • 45 confirmed positive cases in horses; 35 probable • 48 confirmed positive cases in humans; 72 probable; 1 confirmed death; 6 others probable Quantity/Quality of Water and Food • Heat waves and droughts: • lower flows of water in lakes and rivers • lead to water scarcity, poor water quality and may increase water-borne diseases (Cryptosporidium,Giardia) • Heavy storms and floods: • surface water can be contaminated by storm sewer overflows • (Pathogens from livestock sources and heavy rainfall/runoff linked to contamination of drinking water (e.g. Walkerton outbreak of E. coli O157) • Hot weather: • can cause increased growth of micro-organisms and disease outbreaks at recreational beaches, as well as food poisoning from fish and shellfish UV-Radiation • Warmer climate will encourage more outdoor activities (esp. among children) leading to more exposure to UV-B radiation • Number of days with high/extreme UV has increased from 3040 days in 1989 to 60 days by 1995 (Toronto) • Ozone layer will take 50+ years to recover, leading to increased risk of skin cancer, eye disorders and impaired immune system; mortality will peak in 2060 • Most of the 370 current deaths annually from melanoma are due to UV radiation exposure when the stratospheric ozone layer had not yet begun to thin Opportunities to Improve Adaptive Capacity • Increase research into climate change impacts and adaptation – meaningful to local stakeholders • Monitoring and Surveillance – longitudinal assessments = long term commitment – designed to provide appropriate information (climate and health) needed for health policy – Who is responsible for collecting this info? – What data exists now? Is it accessible?