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Transcript
Why C-CIARN?
• To connect researchers and decision-makers for more
decision-relevant research
• Coordination and collaboration between researchers and
across disciplines
• Engagement of broader research capacity
• Visibility and voice for the community
• Timely communication of findings and techniques
C-CIARN Mission
The National, Regional and Sectoral
C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will
build a network of climate change
researchers and stakeholders, facilitate
research, and help to provide voice
and visibility to impacts and
adaptation issues.
Agriculture
Advisory
Comm.
C-CIARN Board
NGOs Private
Sector
Federal
Depts.
$500,000 over 5 yrs. Through
the Federal Impacts and
Adaptation Research
Program
Universities
National C-CIARN Coordinating Office
Communities
Steering Committee
Prov/Terr
agencies
Agriculture (U. of
Atlantic (Dal. U.,
Guelph)
Forest (CFS
•
Edmonton)
Halifax)
Quebec (Ouranos,
Montreal)
Fisheries (DFO
Prairies (U. of
Nanaimo)
Coastal Zone
(BIO Dartmouth)
U, Sudbury)
Health (HC Ottawa)
Landscape
Hazards (GSC
Water Resources
(McGill U., Montreal)
Ottawa)
Sectors
Regina)
Ontario (Laurentian
British Columbia
North (Yukon College,
Whitehorse)
(UBC, Vancouver)
Yukon
NWT
Nunavut
Regions
Partnerships:
EARTHCARE Sudbury
Towards an Adaptation Action Plan:
Climate Change and Health in the
Toronto-Niagara Region
POLLUTION PROBE
in partnership with
Environment Canada
Health Canada
Ontario College of Family Physicians
City of Toronto; City of Mississagua/Peel Health
University of Toronto
www.pollutionprobe.org/Reports/adaptation.pdf
Extreme Temperatures:
• Climate change would increase
the frequency of hot days, (e.g.,
Toronto) leading to an increase in
239-835 additional heat-related
deaths annually by 2080; 171-447
elderly in the TNR by 2020s
Days
Maximum Temperature Scenario CGCM1-GHG+A ensemble run
TORONTO PEARSON (6158733)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
>=30
>=32
>=35
1961-90
2020s
2050s
Scenario Period
2080s
EFFECT OF CHANGE IN MEAN
TEMPERATURES ON EXTREME
HEAT EVENTS
Extreme Weather Events
• Warmer and more variable climate likely to cause more
frequent and more intense severe weather events:
• e.g., hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, floods, droughts
• Potential health impacts:
• direct physical injury or death (e.g., due to storms, floods, etc.)
• psychological distress due to the loss or injury of loved ones and
property
• mass evacuations
• moving into shelters
• Consequences:
• increased demands on emergency preparedness and community
health and social services
Air Quality
Influence of Hot Weather on O3
• 1,925 premature deaths in
Ontario annually; $1B costs
to the economy
• 2002 most smog alerts &
days since 1993
• Offensive air masses
could increase in frequency
from 5% to 23% (29-39%)
• Background ambient
levels of O3 could double
(+40 ppb)
Vector-borne and Rodent-borne Diseases
Imported Cases of Malaria in Canada, 1984-1997
3500
3000
2500
2000
Reported
Low Estimate
High Estimate
1500
1000
1996
1994
1992
1990
0
1988
500
1986
Malaria
West Nile Virus
Dengue Fever
Lyme Disease
Hantavirus
1984
•
•
•
•
•
• West Nile Encephalitis, New York, 1999
• 59 reported cases, 7 deaths
• 8,200 infections (3,500 - 13,000) 1,700 with fever
• 277 confirmed
positive birds
• 218 confirmed
positive mosquito
pools
• 45 confirmed
positive cases in
horses; 35
probable
• 48 confirmed
positive cases in
humans; 72
probable; 1
confirmed death;
6 others probable
Quantity/Quality of Water and Food
• Heat waves and droughts:
• lower flows of water in lakes and rivers
• lead to water scarcity, poor water quality and may increase
water-borne diseases (Cryptosporidium,Giardia)
• Heavy storms and floods:
• surface water can be contaminated by storm sewer overflows
• (Pathogens from livestock sources and heavy rainfall/runoff linked
to contamination of drinking water (e.g. Walkerton outbreak of E. coli
O157)
• Hot weather:
• can cause increased growth of micro-organisms and disease
outbreaks at recreational beaches, as well as food poisoning from
fish and shellfish
UV-Radiation
• Warmer climate will encourage more outdoor activities (esp.
among children) leading to more exposure to UV-B radiation
• Number of days with high/extreme UV has increased from 3040 days in 1989 to 60 days by 1995 (Toronto)
• Ozone layer will take 50+ years to recover, leading to increased
risk of skin cancer, eye disorders and impaired immune system;
mortality will peak in 2060
• Most of the 370 current deaths annually from melanoma are due
to UV radiation exposure when the stratospheric ozone layer had
not yet begun to thin
Opportunities to Improve Adaptive Capacity
• Increase research into climate change impacts and
adaptation
– meaningful to local stakeholders
• Monitoring and Surveillance
– longitudinal assessments = long term commitment
– designed to provide appropriate information (climate and health)
needed for health policy
– Who is responsible for collecting this info?
– What data exists now? Is it accessible?