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Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary
Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]
http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2015
February 5, 2015
Class Information and News
• Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
–
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• A tumbler site to help me remember
– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
Resources and Recommended Reading
• Rood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles
• Past, Present and Future of Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation,
Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012
Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015
• Distribution of energy by atmosphere and
ocean
• “Internal” variability (Redux)
– Analysis
• How weather and climate is organized
– Physical geography
– Rotation of Earth
• Climate variability and change
Energy doesn’t just come and go
• The atmosphere and ocean are fluids.
The horizontal distribution of energy,
causes these fluids to move. That is,
weather and ocean currents.
From Building the Radiative Balance
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
RS
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
1) The absorbed solar energy is
converted to terrestrial thermal
energy.
2) Then it is redistributed by the
atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life.
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
SURFACE
Consider the Distribution of Energy
Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
After the redistribution of energy, the
emission of infrared radiation from the
Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.
Because of tilt of Earth, Solar
Radiation is absorbed preferentially
at the Equator (low latitudes).
SURFACE
South Pole
(Cooling)
Equator
(On average heating)
North Pole
(Cooling)
Transfer of heat north and south is an important
element of the climate at the Earth’s surface.
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold
means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get
cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed.
What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico?
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
heat is moved to poles
cool is moved towards equator
cool is moved towards equator
SURFACE
This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important
Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans
• This is an important part of the climate
system.
• One could stand back far enough in
space, average over time, and perhaps
average this away.
• This is, however, weather ... and weather
is how we feel the climate day to day
– It will change because we are changing the
distribution of heating and increasing the
energy in the system.
Internal Variability
Sources of internal variability
• There is “natural” variability.
– Solar variability
– Volcanic activity
– Internal “dynamics”
•
•
•
•
Atmosphere - Weather
Ocean
Atmosphere-ocean interactions
Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions
• “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability
remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of
“natural” and “human-caused.”
Some Aspects of Climate Variability
• One of the ways to think about climate
variability is to think about persistent patterns
of weather
– Rainy periods
• Floods
– Dry periods
• Droughts
• During these times the weather for a region
does not appear random – it perhaps
appears relentless
Cold
Messy
Warm
Cold
Messy
Temperature
An example of variability: Seasons
Winter
Summer
Rain
comes in
fronts
Rain comes in
thunderstorms
Winter
Forced variability
responding to
solar heating
Wave Motion and Climate
Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures
Differences Relative to 1961-1990 Average
Late 1970s
2006-2011
From Jim Hurrell
Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate
change as a society are best defined by human
dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment,
accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
Election
time scales
ENERGY SECURITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
0 years
25 years
There are short-term issues
important to climate change.
50 years
75 years
100 years
Time Scales of Variability
LONG
SHORT
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
0 years
25 years
El Niño / La Niña
50 years
75 years
100 years
Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño
Changes during El Niño
Some good El Niño Information
• NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño
/ La Niña
• NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Niño
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña
Signal
Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
North Atlantic Oscillation
Positive Phase
U.S. East, Mild and Wet
Europe North, Warm and Wet
Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry
Negative Phase
U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry)
Europe North, Cold; South, Wet
Greenland, Warm
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Arctic Oscillation
Signal
Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.
– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño
– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
– Annular Mode
– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
•
Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate
regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does
southern California experience droughts during
that period?
•
•
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several
“oscillations” that are important to weather and climate.
Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics
Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average.
Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds
Warm here
Better version of figure from JISAO
Cool here
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Signal
Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and
Ocean (JISAO):
– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center (CPC):
– 90 Day Outlook Summary
– Weather and Climate Linkage
• National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):
– Decadal Oscillations
• Review Paper from Rood Class References
– Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography
How Weather is Organized
Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
Heat Capacity
Heat Transport
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
Land
IPCC 2001
Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
Heat Capacity
Heat Transport
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
Ocean
IPCC 2001
Atmosphere
Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature
Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles
HURRICANES
Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat
Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
2071-2100 temperatures relative to 1961-1990.
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001
Ocean
Ocean Surface Currents
(From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay)
Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers Association
The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)
(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean)
Blue shading, low salt
Where there is localized
exchange of water between
the surface and the deep
ocean (convection)
Green shading, high salt
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.
In Class / Groups / Discussion
• Thermohaline Circulation
– Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
• In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream
– How does it affect climate?
– How does variability affect climate?
• Consider:
– Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,
Climate variability and change
Time Scales of Variability
LONG
SHORT
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
0 years
25 years
El Niño / La Niña
50 years
75 years
100 years
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña
Signal
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Niño
Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times
Hawkins and Sutton, 2009
Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015
• Distribution of energy by atmosphere and
ocean
– Greenhouse gases change energy balance
– Atmosphere and oceans transport energy
• “Internal” variability (Redux)
– Modes of internal variability organize weather
in spatial and temporal patterns
Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015
• How weather and climate is organized
–
–
–
–
Rotation of Earth
Location of land-water
Tilt of axis
Thermal characteristics
• Climate variability and change
– Climate change occurs on a background of
variability.
– We can diagnose the variability, it is more difficult
to predict.
Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015
• Distribution of energy by atmosphere and
ocean
• “Internal” variability (Redux)
– Analysis
• How weather and climate is organized
– Physical geography
– Rotation of Earth
• Climate variability and change
Projects
• Abrupt climate change
• Consequences of rapid change in the
Arctic
• Analysis of the warming “hiatus”