Download CIVL 4608 - UNCTAD XI

NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
Using Natural Gas to
Nourish the Oceans
Ian S F Jones
University of Sydney
Columbia University, NY
5.7.2002
University of Sydney
6B FEZ1 29.04.2004
Earth Ocean & Space
Climate Change
• What is Ocean Nourishment
TM
• Carbon credits = CER = GHG credits
= carbon dioxide credits
• How can Ocean Nourishment help Morocco
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Climate Change
• Climate change has been occurring!
• Noah’s flood brought social change
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Greenhouse Gas
carbon dioxide ppmv
Green 1
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
Year
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Future fossil fuel
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Climate
• Rapid climate change is undesirable!
• GHG influences climate
• We want to manage climate.
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Consequences?
The cost
Sea water flooding in Venice. A down side of GHG
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Consequences?
Agricultural production. A down side of GHG
Fisher et al (2002)
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
GHG Emissions
• Emission of GHG =
Population * GDP * Intensity
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
GHG Intensity
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Efficiency
• Increasing the efficiency will not solve the GHG
problem
• A change from 35% to 50% in 20 years would be
required
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Emission - Concentration
550ppm
Concentration predictions
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
GHG Sinks
• Sinks will be needed
• Geological sequestration – capture costs
• Biological sequestration
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Green Economics
$ billons per year
Income for mitigation under IS92b
constant 1990 emmissions
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980
(Green 1)
assumption $5 per tonne
CO2
2020
2060
2100
Year
Global business opportunity
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Biological Sink
•
•
•
•
Benefits of Ocean Nourishment
Low cost
Permanent sequestration
Positive environmental impact
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Ocean Nourishment
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Ocean
• The ocean is a sink of carbon
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Photosynthesis
Photosynthesis in the ocean
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Plant
• Ocean nourishment technology
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Green Coal
Nutrient manufacture
N2
NH3
CH4
Fe
Ammonia
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Nitrogen manufacture
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Carbon Credits
The concept
Nourish the ocean and sell carbon credits
Produce more fish in poor countries
This reduces malnutrition improves,
education, reduces family size
Stabilises population before the ocean capacity is
exhausted
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Carbon Credits
The cost of carbon dioxide credits
US$5 –US$15 per tonne of CO2
Capital costs
US$ 300million
Return on investment
30% pa
See Shoji and Jones (2001) Science of the Total Environment
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Carbon trading
Sinks allowed under UNFCCC –
• Parties to .. enhance sinks .. marine ecosystems
• Kyoto protocol allows trading
• AIJ (UNFCCC article 4.2)
• CDM (developing and developed)
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
OceanOcean Nourishment
Experiment
Experiment
site
Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory, USA
Their numerical model that solves the equation of
fluid mechanics and has a climatological
atmosphere. The model takes one day to advance 50
years and was run up to the equilibrium with the
carbon dioxide level during the pre industrial period.
The nutrients takes of order 30 days to be spread
from the surface layer of the ocean. Enhanced
photosynthetic production and export of organic
carbon occur
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Comparison of Primary Production
•
Model New Primary Production
•
Measured Chlorophyll (primary
production)
Numerical Experiment
•To inject reactive nitrogen to the photic zone
at the rate of 1,000 tonnes/day for 100 years.
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Changed Ocean Productivity
Continuos injection of nitrogen at 33N, 10W after one year
Changed Ocean Productivity
Continuos injection of nitrogen at 33N, 10W after 500 years
Conclusions
•Greenhouse Gas is of concern to the public
•Ocean nourishment could play a major role.
•LIFD countries could benefit
•There is a business opportunity
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Conclusion
• Morocco can benefit from more fish
• Ocean Nourishment is a promising concept for
Morocco to support its sustainable development
• Carbon Credits would pay for this scheme
• Ocean General Circulation Model with Ocean
Biological Model have allowed the long-term
impacts of an Moroccan Ocean Nourishment site
to be assessed.
Further info on
Ocean Nourishment
www.oceannourishment.com
Brochure
Research papers
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
An Australian Opportunity
Green Coal
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space
Green Coal
University of Sydney
Earth Ocean & Space