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New frontiers for alternative energy Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy alternativenergy Energy demand 2005-2030 Billion tonnes oil equivalent 20 18 16 Reference Alternative 14 12 10 2005 2015 2030 - Reference scenario represents ‘business-as-usual’ - Alternative scenario assumes all climate change and energy security policies now being considered by governments are adopted alternativenergy Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007 CO2 emissions 2005-2030 Billion tonnes CO2 50 Reference scenario represents ‘business-as-usual’ Reference Alternative Alternative scenario assumes all climate change and energy security policies now being considered by governments are adopted 2°C scenario 40 2°C scenario shows IEA calculation of path needed to prevent temperatures rising 2°C over pre-industrial levels 30 20 2005 alternativenergy 2015 2030 Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007 Energy drivers Demand Climate change Energy security High energy prices alternativenergy Energy criteria Availability Sustainability Reliability Affordability alternativenergy Alternative energy Low-or-no carbon Plentiful Secure Increasingly attractive economically “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” Thomas Edison, 1931 alternativenergy Policy support for alternative energy Policy targets in 66 countries Feed-in tariffs in 37 countries Mandates for biofuels in 17 countries Source: Ren21 Global Status Report 2007, Renewable Energy Policy Network alternativenergy Alternative energy: the market today Global new investment in clean energy Demand growth p.a. since 2001 $148.4bn 150 40 125 100 $86.5bn 75 20 $54.6bn $bn % 30 50 $28.6bn 10 25 0 Total Primary Energy Sources: Wind Solar Biofuels Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables based on New Energy Finance 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance alternativenergy 8 Alternative energy: the market today Global new investment in clean energy Demand growth p.a. since 2001 $148.4bn 150 40 125 100 $86.5bn 75 20 $54.6bn $bn % 30 50 $28.6bn 10 25 0 Total Primary Energy Sources: Wind Solar Biofuels Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables based on New Energy Finance 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance alternativenergy 9 Proportions of world energy today alternativenergy US wind capacity - beating the projections GW Actual capacity end-2007 18 16 14 EIA projection from 2004 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002 alternativenergy 2007 2013 2018 2023 BP Alternative Energy alternativenergy BP Alternative Energy: a growing global business Solar PV facility / market Wind power Hydrogen power Biofuels facility / market Gas fired power Investing $1.5bn in 2008 – as much as in previous two years combined alternativenergy BP Alternative Energy: solar power • 30 years’ experience, 20 offices, 2000+ employees, installations in 160 countries. • Manufacturing facilities in Frederick US, Bangalore, Madrid, Xian and Sydney. • Expecting to grow 60%+ by 2012. • Expanding production to achieve target sales of around 800MW with similar levels of production by 2010 • Includes $97m expansion at Frederick – largest integrated solar manufacturing plant in US • Advanced Mono² process; support for research projects alternativenergy 14 BP Alternative Energy: wind power Expected installed gross capacity 3GW MW 3000 2000 US land portfolio with potential for 15GW 1GW 1000 30 MW 0 2005 end 2008 end 2010 alternativenergy 15 BP Alternative Energy: wind power Built: • Colorado: Cedar Creek wind farm with partner Babcock & Brown – 300MW • Dhule, India - project built with partner Suzlon – 40MW • Netherlands: Two farms – total 30MW Under construction: • Indiana: Fowler Ridge wind farm with Dominion – Phase I - 400MW • Texas: Silver Star project with Clipper - 60MW; Sherbino project with NRG Energy - 150MW • Kansas: Flat Ridge farm with Westar Energy - 100MW • California – re-powering Edom Hills – 20MW alternativenergy 16 BP Alternative Energy: biofuels • Producing ‘good’ biofuels – which reduce emissions and enhance security without damaging habitats and forests • $1bn investment in Brazilian ethanol – made from sustainable sugarcane - the most efficient feedstock currently available - greenhouse gas emissions reductions of up to 80% • Working with DuPont to demonstrate biobutanol • Investing $500 million over 10 years in the Energy Biosciences Institute to explore advanced biofuels and other applications of biotech to energy alternativenergy 17 BP Alternative Energy: hydrogen energy Concept for Abu Dhabi power alternativenergystation New policies on alternative energy Climate high on agenda for G8 and UN Climate summit in Copenhagen December 2009 Carbon price of up to $60 projected by 2012* National legislation or proposals underway in many countries *Source: New Energy Finance alternativenergy Alternative energy: future market drivers Global new investment in 2030 - Clean Tech forecast Demand growth p.a. 2005-2030E 3000 25 $2-3trn 20 2000 % $bn 15 10 1000 $148bn 5 0 Total Primary Energy Sources: Wind Solar Biofuels Primary energy based on IEA WEO 2007 reference scenario. Renewables based on New Energy Finance 0 2007 2030 Source: New Energy Finance, Nov 2007 alternativenergy 20 Solar potential – Central America alternativenergy Wind potential – Central America alternativenergy New frontiers for alternative energy Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy alternativenergy