Download Presentation title second line if required

New frontiers for alternative energy
Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy
alternativenergy
Energy demand 2005-2030
Billion tonnes
oil equivalent
20
18
16
Reference
Alternative
14
12
10
2005
2015
2030
- Reference scenario represents ‘business-as-usual’
- Alternative scenario assumes all climate change and energy
security policies now being considered by governments are adopted
alternativenergy
Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007
CO2 emissions 2005-2030
Billion tonnes CO2
50
Reference scenario represents
‘business-as-usual’
Reference
Alternative
Alternative scenario assumes all
climate change and energy security
policies now being considered by
governments are adopted
2°C scenario
40
2°C scenario shows IEA calculation of
path needed to prevent temperatures
rising 2°C over pre-industrial levels
30
20
2005
alternativenergy
2015
2030
Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007
Energy drivers
Demand
Climate change
Energy security
High energy prices
alternativenergy
Energy criteria
Availability
Sustainability
Reliability
Affordability
alternativenergy
Alternative energy
Low-or-no carbon
Plentiful
Secure
Increasingly attractive
economically
“I’d put my money on the
sun and solar energy. What
a source of power! I hope
we don’t have to wait until
oil and coal run out before
we tackle that.” Thomas
Edison, 1931
alternativenergy
Policy support for alternative energy
Policy targets in 66 countries
Feed-in tariffs in 37 countries
Mandates for biofuels in 17 countries
Source: Ren21 Global Status Report 2007, Renewable Energy Policy Network
alternativenergy
Alternative energy: the market today
Global new investment in clean energy
Demand growth p.a. since 2001
$148.4bn
150
40
125
100
$86.5bn
75
20
$54.6bn
$bn
%
30
50
$28.6bn
10
25
0
Total Primary
Energy
Sources:
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables
based on New Energy Finance
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals.
New investment only.
Source: New Energy Finance
alternativenergy
8
Alternative energy: the market today
Global new investment in clean energy
Demand growth p.a. since 2001
$148.4bn
150
40
125
100
$86.5bn
75
20
$54.6bn
$bn
%
30
50
$28.6bn
10
25
0
Total Primary
Energy
Sources:
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables
based on New Energy Finance
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals.
New investment only.
Source: New Energy Finance
alternativenergy
9
Proportions of world energy today
alternativenergy
US wind capacity - beating the projections
GW
Actual capacity end-2007
18
16
14
EIA projection from 2004
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2002
alternativenergy
2007
2013
2018
2023
BP Alternative Energy
alternativenergy
BP Alternative Energy: a growing global business
Solar PV facility / market
Wind power
Hydrogen power
Biofuels facility / market
Gas fired power
Investing $1.5bn in 2008 – as much as in previous
two years combined
alternativenergy
BP Alternative Energy: solar power
• 30 years’ experience, 20 offices, 2000+ employees,
installations in 160 countries.
• Manufacturing facilities in Frederick US, Bangalore,
Madrid, Xian and Sydney.
• Expecting to grow 60%+ by 2012.
• Expanding production to achieve target sales of around
800MW with similar levels of production by 2010
• Includes $97m expansion at Frederick – largest integrated solar manufacturing plant in US
• Advanced Mono² process; support for research projects
alternativenergy
14
BP Alternative Energy: wind power
Expected installed gross capacity
3GW
MW
3000
2000
US land portfolio with
potential for 15GW
1GW
1000
30 MW
0
2005
end 2008
end 2010
alternativenergy
15
BP Alternative Energy: wind power
Built:
• Colorado: Cedar Creek wind farm with partner Babcock & Brown –
300MW
• Dhule, India - project built with partner Suzlon – 40MW
• Netherlands: Two farms – total 30MW
Under construction:
• Indiana: Fowler Ridge wind farm with Dominion – Phase I - 400MW
• Texas: Silver Star project with Clipper - 60MW; Sherbino project with
NRG Energy - 150MW
• Kansas: Flat Ridge farm with Westar Energy - 100MW
• California – re-powering Edom Hills – 20MW
alternativenergy
16
BP Alternative Energy: biofuels
• Producing ‘good’ biofuels – which reduce emissions and enhance
security without damaging habitats and forests
• $1bn investment in Brazilian ethanol – made from sustainable sugarcane - the most efficient feedstock currently available - greenhouse
gas emissions reductions of up to 80%
• Working with DuPont to demonstrate biobutanol
• Investing $500 million over 10 years in the Energy Biosciences
Institute to explore advanced biofuels and other applications of
biotech to energy
alternativenergy
17
BP Alternative Energy: hydrogen energy
Concept for Abu Dhabi power
alternativenergystation
New policies on alternative energy
Climate high on agenda for G8 and UN
Climate summit in Copenhagen December 2009
Carbon price of up to $60 projected by 2012*
National legislation or proposals underway in many countries
*Source: New Energy Finance
alternativenergy
Alternative energy: future market drivers
Global new investment in 2030 - Clean Tech
forecast
Demand growth p.a. 2005-2030E
3000
25
$2-3trn
20
2000
%
$bn
15
10
1000
$148bn
5
0
Total Primary
Energy
Sources:
Wind
Solar
Biofuels
Primary energy based on IEA WEO 2007 reference scenario.
Renewables based on New Energy Finance
0
2007
2030
Source: New Energy Finance, Nov 2007
alternativenergy
20
Solar potential – Central America
alternativenergy
Wind potential – Central America
alternativenergy
New frontiers for alternative energy
Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy
alternativenergy