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Transcript
LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS PERU PART 4: VOLCANOES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED DISASTERS IN PERU FLOODS GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES HIGH BENEFIT/COST PROGRAMS FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES VOLCANOES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE Natural Phenomena that Cause Disasters Planet Earth’s heat flow and lithosphericmantle collisionzone interactions cause VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF 1,500 ACTIVE VOLCANOES VOLCANOES are awesome manifestations of heat flowing as a result of movement along faults located in subduction zones or at hot spots (e.g., Hawaii and Iceland). VOLCANOES • Peru is located in the heart of the Andean mountain chain, which is an unbroken series of high-mountain peaks that stretch southward from Columbia to Argentina. VOLCANOES • Peru has 16 of the “Ring of fire” volcanoes; the most famous being: El Misti volcano, Coropuna volcano, Chachani volcano, Sabancaya volcano, and Ubinas volcano. • At present, Sabancaya and Ubinas are the most active volcanoes in Peru, producing significant eruptions in 1988-1994 and 2006-2008. VOLCANOES • The South American plate exhibits some of the best examples of continental-margin magmatism found anywhere in the world. SOUTH AMERICAN MOUNTAIN BUILDING SOUTH AMERICAN VULCANISM A DISASTER is ----- the set of failures that overwhelm the capability of a community to respond without external help when three continuums: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) complex events (e.g., volcanic eruptions, ,..) intersect at a point in space and time. Disasters are caused by single- or multiple-event natural hazards that, (for various reasons), cause extreme levels of mortality, morbidity, homelessness, joblessness, economic losses, or environmental impacts. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is UNPREPARED for what will likely happen THE REASONS ARE . . . • When it does happen, the community LOSES the functions of its buildings and infrastructure at a time when they are needed most. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community has NO DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIO or WARNING SYSTEM in place as a strategic framework for concerted local, national, regional, and international actions. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community LACKS THE CAPACITY TO RESPOND to the full spectrum of expected and unexpected emergency situations. THE REASONS ARE . . . • The community is INEFFICIENT during recovery and reconstruction because it HAS NOT LEARNED from either the current experience or the cumulative prior experiences. TOWARDS VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE RISK HAZARDS EXPOSURE RISK VULNERABILITY LOCATION VOLCANO RISK • VOLCANO HAZARDS •INVENTORY •VULNERABILITY •LOCATION DATA BASES AND INFORMATION ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK PERU’S COMMUINITIES VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICY OPTIONS HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS •PREPAREDNESS •PROTECTION •FORECASTS/SCENARIOS •EMERGENCY RESPONSE •RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • • • • VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) • LAVA FLOWS • LAHARS • EARTHQUAKES (related to movement of lava) • “VOLCANIC WINTER” CAUSES OF RISK LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS FLYING DEBRIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS CASE HISTORIES VOLCANIC ASH LAVA FLOWS LAHARS TOXIC GASES LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES PREPAREDNESS FOR THE LIKELY HAZARDS (PDA’s) IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES EARLY WARNING IS ESSENTIAL FOR EVACUATION AND DISASTER RESILIENCE LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT DISASTER RESILIENCE ALL VOLCANOES TIMELY EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS ESSENTIAL FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE LAST ERUPTIONS OF PERU’S NOTABLE VOLCANOES COROPUNA: 11,000 YEARS AGO CHACHANI: 11,000 YEARS AGO EL MISTI: 1784 UBINAS:2006-2008 SABANCAYA: 1988-1994; 2013 PERU’S COROPUNA PERU’S CHACHANI AND EL MISTI PERU’S EL MISTI: ASLEEP, BUT A THREAT PERU’S EL MISTI: APRIL 2007 Ubinas, which had its last significant eruption in 2008, is Peru’s most active volcano. PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO: 2006 EVACUATION • Nearby towns were evacuated during the 2006 eruptions, which killed livestock and caused significant respiratory and eye problems for surrounding residents PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO PERU’S UBINAS VOLCANO LOCATION OF UBINAS VOLCANO AREQUIPA: AT RISK AREQUIPA: AT RISK PERU’S SABANCAYA Sabancaya is an active 5,976-metre (19,606 ft) stratovolcano in the Andes of southern Peru, about 100 km (62 mi) northwest of Arequipa. THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY • In July 1986, after over 200 years of dormancy, satellites detected an increase in thermal emission, and intense volcanic activity resumed in December. THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued) • Several eruptive cycles occurred over the next two years (1987-1988), producing a lava dome in the crater. THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued) • The most sustained period of activity began with explosive eruptions (VEI 3) on May 28, 1990, and continued for over eight years. THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued) • The eruptive cycle produced more than 25 million cubic meters of lava flows and tephra during that period. THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued) • At the height of the activity in 1994, eruptions producing large ash clouds occurred every two hours. THUMBNAIL OF SABANCAYA’S HISTORY (Continued) • A small eruption occurred on February 23, 2013. A SNAPSHOT IN TIME OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY: AUGUST 2009 THE MOST COMMON FLAWS EXPOSED BY VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • UN—PREPARED FOR WHAT HAPPENED • UN---WARNED; NO EVACUATION • UN---ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY; LIVES LOST VOLCANO DISASTER RESILIENCE STRATEGIES DISASTER RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES FOR COMMUNITIES • PURPOSE • PROTECTION • CONTROL • AVIATION SAFETY • TECHNIQUE • DESIGN ROOFS FOR WET ASH • LAVA AND/OR LAHAR DIVERSION CHANNELS • MODELS OF ASH DISTRIBUTION EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT • FORECASTS OF ERUPTIONS • MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DEFORMATION, SEISMICITY, GAS EMISSIONS, REMOTE SENSING, WINDS) • WARNING SYSTEMS • HISTORIC DATABASES FOR EACH VOLCANO • COMPUTER MODELS OF EACH VOLCANO • HAZARD MAPS • DISASTER SCENARIOS UBINAS VOLCANO HAZARD ZONE MAP MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES . SATTELITE MONITORING CAN PROVIDE EARLY WARNING . PERU’S NEXT VOLCANIC ERUPTION IS INEVITABLE • SO, INCLUDE THE BEST POSSIBLE ”WHAT IF” PLANS ABOUT THE NEXT MOST LIKELY ERUPTION