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Geological Predictions
Michael Costa
Kanika Bryant
Heather Potersnak
Matt Bishop
Geological Predicting
Mankind has been trying to predict what will happen
to the earth since the dawn of the ages. We have
been attempting to predict short-term events such
as volcanic eruptions and even long-term events
like new land masses developing.
Short-Term Predictions
Predicting volcanic
eruptions has been
around for thousands of
years. People like the
ancient Chinese to
present day scientists
have all been a part of
this field. Most primitive
people used eccentric
ways to predict eruptions,
but with modern science
we have been able to use
three major methods.
Our problem is to find out
which method is most
accurate and reliable
when predicting volcanic
eruptions. We are also
using a multiple working
hypotheses for this
problem.
The Seismometer Method
The first method is the Seismometer method. This involves using a
seismometer to measure amplitudes and magnitudes which are
commonly high in earthquakes. After looking at the data scientists
can easily find a correlation between seismometer readings and
volcanic eruptions in the area.
The Tiltmeter Method
The next method is the
Tiltmeter method. This
method is based on the use
of a Tiltmeter which
measures ground level tilt.
Although this at first
seems irrelevant to
volcanic eruptions,
scientists also saw a
direct correlation
between ground level tilt
and eruptions.
The Gas Emission Method
The final method commonly used to predict volcanic eruptions is the gas
emission method. By monitoring the gases emitted through the volcanoes
vent, you can predict an eruption by looking at changes in gas quantity and
chemical makeup. Changes in these characteristics had a definite correlation
to volcanic eruptions.
The Solution
After thoroughly
researching each
method we have found
that one in particular is
the most accurate and
practical. This is the
Tiltmeter Method.
We ruled out the seismometer
method because before
erupting, the earthquake trace
wouldn’t follow its usual track,
resulting in false data. Also,
the gas emission method
seemed like a good idea, but
testing all the gas released by
a volcano simultaneously
would result in mounds of
data that would need to be
analyzed, which is
unpractical.
Long-Term Predicting:
Mountain Building
Problem
Plate tectonics has, and will continue to alter the
topography of the Earth’s surface.
Hypothesis
Geological phenomena associated with
continental collisions will create
extensive new or enlarged mountain
ranges in several regions in the future.
Plate Tectonics
The idea of plate tectonics is a
combination of two different theories,
continental drift and sea-floor
spreading. Continental drift is the
movement of continents on the Earth’s
surface, causing major collisions which
also create mountain build-up. Seafloor spreading brings about new ocean
crust through mid-ocean ridges,
resulting in the widening of an ocean.
Where will this take place?
Tectonic activity will take place along all
major fault lines. As a direct response to
this plate movement, Africa will collide with
Europe closing the Mediterranean Sea.
Australia will in-turn collide with S.E. Asia,
and California will slide northward up the
coast to Alaska.
What on Earth does this have to do
with Mountains?
Orogeny is the process of mountain building.
This most commonly occurs when two tectonic
plates collide. This being said, at each one of the
previously stated collisions, a mountain will be
formed. Such mountain ranges include the
Mediterranean Mountains and the Indo-Atlantic
Mountains.
How will this effect N.C.?
It may seem as though none of these events will
directly effect the livelihood of North
Carolinians, but if present day plate motions
continue the Atlantic Ocean will eventually
widen. This will of course cause the imminent
disappearance of the Outer Banks and possibly
the entire region of Northeastern North
Carolina.
Solution
There is no resolution for preventing the
collision of the earth’s plates, tectonic activity is
inevitable. However the ultimate key lies within
knowledge. The understanding of these events
is pertinent, if one is knowledgeable then,
he/she can prepare future generations for what
is to come.
Observe always that everything is the
result of change, and get used to thinking
that there is nothing Nature loves so well
as to change existing forms and to make
new ones like them.
-Marcus Aurelius
Sources
• A Guide to Rocks & Fossils by
Busbey, Coenraads, Willis, and
Roots.
• http://www.scotese.com/earth.htm
• http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/vw
lessons/plate_tectonics/introductio
n.html
• http://www.wikipedia.org