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Germ theory of disease fails
Virus-AIDS hypothesis
and
HIV-AIDS hypothesis out of touch
with South Africa – a new
perspective
Peter Duesberg
RA conference, Oakland, Nov. 6-8
1
Historic evidence for Germ theory
Seasonal epidemi cs have decimated mankind from its very
beginnings (Stewart, 1968). Examples are the plague-, the
flu-, the polio-, the cholera-, the pox- and the syphilis
epidemic s.
All th ese epidemics had the following in common:
(1)
They increase exponentially over several months
and then decline exponentially, forming the classica l
Тbell-shapedУcurves as originall described by W.Farr).
[Slides: London plague 1665; Global FluХs1918; US Polio 1942.]
(2)
They spread randomly between the sexes.
(3)
Infected individuals develop these diseases only
after short latent periods of several days, typically
recover within weeks, and rarely die. [Slides: Measles]
2
Bell-shaped curve of first recorded
plague epidemic, London 1665
The plague epidemic of
London in 1665 was the
first contagious
epidemic that was
statistically recorded. It
is a perfect example of
the exponential rise and
subsequent fall over
weeks, forming the
classical bell-shaped
curve typical of new
infectious epidemics.
3
Classical bell-shaped Flu epidemic
of 1918 in the US and Europe
Short
incubations,
Self-limiting
by
immunity
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Note:
Abscissa
in
months.
4
Seasonal polio epidemics, US
1948 and1949
5
Google; polio epi
Time course of individual
measles-virus disease in days:
Short latency, virus-specific
disease, terminated by immunity
QuickT ime™ and a
TI FF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
From: Viral
Pathogenesis and
Immunology,
Mims & White,
1984
Note,
time in
days
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1882, Koch proves germ theory
The seasonal epidemics of plagues and Flus and polios
were long suspected to be caused by germs, alias
ТcontagionУ,but were unexplainab le and unpreventable until
in 1882.
In 1882 Koch proved that a specific bacterium, which he had
ТclonedУfrom tuber culosis patients, caused tube rculosis in
guinea pigs .
The key to his discovery was the isolation of the bacterium
from a plethora of mostly harmle ss huma n microbes (term
includes bacteria, viruses and fungi), by cloning them from
single mi crobial cells on agar gels.
Slide: Cloning bacteria on agar gels.
With the discovery of the Tuberculosis-bacterium Koch had
started the golden age of the germ theory.
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Koch 1880s:
Isolation of
pathogenic
microbes (TB
& Anthrax) by
cloning on
agar gels.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Bact erial an d Fungal Colonies. This
pla te was inocula te d w ith a cot to n
swab t hat was wiped over a shower
drai n. Fungi usua lly produc e l arg e,
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"f uzzy" colonies (mark ed F).
Koch’s postulates
The postulates define,
whether a microbe or a
virus causes a disease.
1. The s ame micr oorganism mu st be pre sen t in ever y cas e
of t he disea se.
2. The mi cr oorg anism must be isolat ed, a lias cloned, f r om
all oth er m icr obe s o f t he host and gr own in pur e
cult ure .
3. The mi cr oorg anism fr om pure c ult ure must cause t he
dise as e wh en in oculat ed in to a h eal t hy, suscep t ible
labora to r y host *.
4. The mi cr oorg anism must be isolat ed in p ure cul t ure
f rom a n exper iment al ly i nf ect ed host .
* The incubat ion per iod fr om infec ti on t o dise as e i s
de t ermined b y t he gr owt h ra te of t he micr obe .
Years of research have
been spent on
organisms never
proven to cause
particular diseases.
One should always
seek to find out if
Koch's Postulates
were performed.
The microbe could be
a passenger instead
of a cause. Examples
are: leprosy /
helicobacter / HIV
9 /
Cervical ca virus.
Triumphs of the germ theory
1) The identifi cat ion of th e ba ct erial c aus es of c hildbed feve r,
syphilis, choler a, pneumonia, salmonell a and th e vir al causes
of inf lu enza - pneumonia, measles, mumps , herp es, polio, yellow
feve r, et c.
2) Discover y of th e l a ws o f mic rob ia l a nd vira l
re pli c a t io n (violat ed by HI V- AI DS).
3) Cur es of ba ct er ial diseases w ith ant ibioti cs th at kill th e
ba ct eria w ith out hurtin g th e host. Pr eve nti on of viral
epidemics w ith vaccines.
In th e light of th e germ, th e mort alit y fr om al l inf ec ti ous dis eases
combined had dropped fr om over 50% in th e day s of Koch t o about
1% in th e 197 0s in th e “we st ern wo rld” (Cairns , 197 8).
Accordin g t o ‘RA- acti vist ’ Gord on St e wart , th e germ th eory had
thus beco me “th e most powe rful single f orce in th e deve lopment
of medicine in th e past ce ntur y” (Lance t , 1968 ).
10
So what are the laws of the germ
theory?
The germ theory explains the once mysterious microbial epidemics
and diseases as wars between attacking bacteria or viruses and the
defending immune system.
Like in all wars speed is critical.
The microbes must be fast enough to replicate in sufficient numbers
to survive. They do this by infecting and killing millions of host cells before the hostХsimmune system strikes back.
The immune system must be able to overtake the microbes in order
to save the host.
The following laws govern these wars:
 The generation times and multiplication rates of pathogenic
bacteria or viruses.
 The rapid recruitment and clonal expansion of numerous
anti-microbial immune cells.
11
Generation time and
multiplication rates of bacteria
1) Bacteria. Under optimal conditions one bacterium doubles (=
multiplication rate) in 30 min (= generation time).
Accordingly, 1 bacterium goes from 1 Π> 2 in 30 min, from 1Π>
2^2 (=4) in 60 min, from 1 Π>2^3 (=8) in 90 min, etc.
The clinical threshold of bacterial disease is about 10^8-10
bacteria depending on the site.
Thus a single bacterium can cause disease after only 15 hrs, or 30
bacterial doublings:
10^10 bacteria = 1 x 2 ^ 15 hrs/0.5 hr (generation time) = 2^30.
This is the formula for diarrhea by a conventional Salmonella
infection.
12
Generation time and
multiplication rates of viruses
2) Viruses. Animal viruses, including HIV, replicate in susceptible cells in
8-24 hrs (generation time), and each infected cell produces at least 100 new
viruses (multiplication rate). Thus HIV is a fast lentivirusΣ!
The clinical threshold of viral disease is about 10^9-12 infected cells,
depending on the infected tissue.
Accordingly, a single blood-borne virus, like HIV or mononucleosis virus,
can cause disease by infecting about 10^12 blood cells (1/5 of the total) in
only 6 days.
10^12 infected cells = 1 (infected cell) x 10 ^2 x 6 (= 6 days).
Thus mononucleosis virus (EBV) and HIV should cause diseases within a
week after infection: Indeed, EBV does Πbut HIV does not, perhaps later?
The asymptomatic 6-day-period prior to clinical disease is called latent
periodΣ. It is typically 5-10 days for viru ses. [Slide 9 viruses]
13
Latent periods of nine different
human viruses
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
14
Google:microbiolbytes
How does the immune system catch
up with viruses and microbes?
3) Antimicrobial immunity. During a microbial infection,
numerous immune-cells (i) with distinct anti-viral or bacterial antibodies (namely i1, i2, i3, Ι) are recruited over time.
These cells expand clonally, much like bacteria, with generation
times of about 12 hrs, or 2 generations per day, as follows:
I@n (immune cells at n days) = (i1 + i2 + i3 +ix Ι) x 2^n days/12
hrs + many antibodies per cell.
Within weeks, the multiplicity of distinct immune cells, and their
ability to make numerous antibodies (= anti-viral bullets) per cell
make up for their initial disadvantage of lower than microbial
growth rates.
rown-upsΣ the immune cells are the only ones (besides cancer
cells!) with the potential to grow exponentially on demand!
15
Summing up
the laws of the germ theory

The ger m th eory e xplain s th e ex ponentia l r is es and f alls of micr obia l
diseases w ithin wee ks, and epidemics w ithin month s – as blitz kriegs
bet wee n micr obes and blitz - def enses of th e immu ne syst em.

Initia ll y th e atta cker s ha ve th e ad vantag e f or seve ra l day s o r wee ks.

Within seve ra l wee ks, however , th e host ’s immu ne ce lls ty picall y
over come th e invading micr obes by c lona l ex pan sions of numer ous
micr obe- spec if ic immu ne ce lls, making hundr eds of micr obe- spec if ic
antib odies.

I f thi s ha ppens bef or e th e micr obes r each c lini cal thr esholds, th e
inf ec ti ons ar e asymp t omati c (only 1 in 1000 poli o inf ec ti ons ar e
sympt omati c.). Sti ll, th e host beco mes immun e (“antib ody- positi ve”).

I f th er e is no immu ne def ense as in “n ude” ( immu nodef icient ) mice or in
human s with inherit ed or acquir ed immu ne- def iciency, th e host is kill ed
within we eks af t er inf ec ti on.
The ba lan ce bet wee n th e micr obes and th e immu ne syst em is a class ical
Dar winian syst em: By s elec ting f or immu nity th e micr obes e nsur e th e
per sist ence of th eir host s. (Only HI V is said t o kill eve ryb ody.)
16
The iron age of the germ theory
By the time the polio epidemi cs were ended with the
vaccines of Salk and Sabin in the 1960s, the germ theory
had explaine d and brought unde r control virtually all majo r
infectious diseases.
There was no more microbial terra incognita left for the
microbe hunt ers to discover and to make careers with.
Therefore, the microbe hunters postulated new Тslow
virusesУthat cause slow diseases, which were previously
thought to be non-microbial Р namely cancer, leukemia,
neurological dise ases, and acquired immuno -deficiency.
17
Viruses of slow, not self-limiting
diseases are incompatible with the
germ theory
The viruses found in slow, not-self-limiting dis eases have the
following ex otic properties in common:
1) Anti-viral immuni ty does not limit or cure the slow
diseases.
2) The viruses of slow diseases are neutralize d by
antibody, latent or defective, only fragme nts of viral
nucleic acids are detected.
3) The same latent and defective viruses, are also found
in numer ous normal controls.
All of these properties are inconsistent with the germ
theory.
18
Since there are no inconsistencies
in nature, the slow-virus-theory
must me flawed
The classical test of a theory is the merit
of its predictions.
According to the HIV-AIDS germ theory, the
AIDS-virologists have predicted, right after
the discovery of the AIDS virus in 1984,
that Americans and Europeans would soon be
decimated by epidemics of sexually
transmitted AIDS virus.
Only their vaccine could help.
Since this did not happen in 25 years, they
“moved forward” to Africa, where epidemics
are easier to pass and harder verify than in
the US and Europe.
19
Fabricating an epidemic in
Africa
To minimize objections to the evidence for
an African epidemic, those who question the
slow AIDS virus theory and the African
epidemics are intimidated as “mass
murderers” (Discover magazine, 2008).
If that is not enough to silence objections,
even published papers advancing evidence to
the contrary will be censored.
I assume you think I am exaggerating now,
having illusions about the holy inquisition.
So, please watch the last three slides.
20
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
21
50
A
45
million
40
Population
35
30
25
50
B
45
40
% HIV Positive
35
30
25
20
% HIV Positive
15
10
5
C
0
22
Year
Table 1,
Vital
statistics
South
Africa,
19802008
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Population
x 10^-6
29.3
30.2
31.1
32.1
33.2
34.3
35.1
35.9
36.8
37.6
38.5
39.3
40.1
40.9
41.6
42.2
42.8
43.3
43.9
44.5
45.1
45.6
46.1
46.6
47.0
47.5
47.9
48.4
48.8
HIV+
%
0.7
1.7
2.2
4.0
7.6
10.4
14.4
17.0
22.8
22.4
24.5
24.8
26.5
27.9
29.5
30.2
29.1
28.0
Deaths
x 10^-3
HIV-Deaths
x 10^-3
317
365
381
415
453
500
554
572
591
607
*
*
10
10.5
*
*
*
13
14.5
15
* not reported because HIV-deaths were below 10th rank.
23
To prove viral AIDS:
1) Explain, why anti-viral immunity
does not protect against AIDS.
2) Find contagious AIDS in drug free
subjects.
3) Show that in two matched groups of
US soldiers only HIV-positives get
AIDS.
END
24
25
Sanger
Institute,
UK: No
sequence
homology
between
HIV and
human
genome
Subject: RE: Sequence homology between HIV and human genome
Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2009 13:02:39 -0000
Thread-Topic: Sequence homology between HIV and human genome
From: "Paul Kellam" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Cc: "Don Powell" <[email protected]>, "Andrew King"
<[email protected]>, <[email protected]>
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 26 Oct 2009 13:02:41.0323 (UTC)
Dear Peter
Hopefully I can provide a form of an answer to your question;
Is there "homology" between HIV and the human genome”? I am only
interested in it, if it is high enough to interfere with HIV "viral load tests",
using primers derived from conventional HIV sequences.
The simplest answer to this comes from the fact that the use of the HIV viral
load primers and RT-PCR on HIV negative individuals gives clear negative
results strongly suggesting they are not ab le to amplify from any endogenous
retroviruses in the human genome. Given the phylogenetic distance between
HIV and HERV this is not surprising.
However, your question is interesting in th at a colleague of mine Dr Robert
Gifford has conducted work using computational probes to the most
conserved parts of lentivirus genomes to search sequence trace archives,
many such traces originating f orm the Sanger Institute. This work has
resulted in the identifica tion of very ancient lentivirus genomes (I attach two
papers) but not in humans.
It should be emphasized though that these ancient lentiv iruses would be
extremely unl ikely to cross react with HIV viral load PCR primers even if
they were in the human genome, which to my knowledge they are not.
In hope this is of some help
Best wishes
Paul
Dr Paul Kellam
Virus Genomics Team Leader
Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute
26
27
28
Viruses found in causing slow
diseases – a new germ theory?
The s earc h fo r slow vi r al disea ses bega n wit h NCI ’s Virus
Cancer Program, which recr uit ed in the 1960s a young
elit e o f vi r ologists t o find cance r an d leu kemia vir uses –
one of t hem is s t ill t al king a bout t his r ight now, des pite
ad vancin g mat ur it y.
Othe r s were list ed up t o f ind vir uses causing slo w
neurol ogical d iseas es l ike Kur u a nd Alzhei mer s.
More recent ly a hug e effor t was made t o fin d ev idence
for t he global id ea t hat a slo w viru s is causing AIDS.
29
Historic evidence for Germ theory
Seasonal epidemics have decimated mankind from its very beginnings
(Stewart, 1968). Examples are the plague-, the flu-, the polio-, the cholera-,
the pox- and the syphili s epidemics. All these epidemics had the following
in common:
(1) They increase exponentially over several months and then declin e
exponentially , forming the classical bell-shapedΣ curves (as desribed
by FarrΥs law). [Slides: London plague 1694; Global Flus 1918; US
Polio 1942.]
(2) They spread randomly between the sexes.
(3) Infected individuals develop these diseases only after short latent
periods of several days, typically recover within weeks, and rarely die.
[Slides: Measles]
30