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Chapter 33 International trade David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch, Economics, 8th Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2005 PowerPoint presentation by Alex Tackie and Damian Ward ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 1 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 2 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Exports as % of GDP 3 Ja pa n SA U ly Ita nc e Fr a K U 'la nd s 1967 2004 N B el gi um 90 80 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Source: GATT, Directions of Trade 4 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Destination of world exports, 2003 LDCs 43% Rich countries 57% Source: GATT, Directions of Trade 5 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 6 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The composition of world exports 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2002 1955 Food, ag Fuels Other primary 7 Manufactures ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The composition of Turkey’s exports 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1950 1980 1985 AGRICULTURE 1990 MINING 1995 2000 2006 INDUSTRY Source:SPO 8 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Some important issues • Raw materials prices – Less-developed countries (LDCs) have claimed exploitation by industrial countries • e.g. by buying raw materials cheaply & selling manufactures dear • Manufactured exports from LDCs – some LDCs have had success in exporting manufactures – leading to complaints that jobs are under threat in the industrial countries • Trade disputes between industrial countries – In some countries, established producers of certain goods are being undercut by efficient modern producers – especially from Japan & East Asia – should such exports be restricted? 9 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Comparative advantage • Trade offers benefits when there are international differences in the opportunity cost of goods. • Opportunity cost of a good – the quantity of other goods sacrificed to make one more unit of that good • The law of comparative advantage – states that countries should specialise in producing and exporting the goods that they produce at a lower relative cost than other countries. 10 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 11 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The source of comparative advantage • An important difference between countries is in factor endowments • which will be reflected in different relative factor prices – e.g. if the UK has relatively abundant capital but relatively scarce labour as compared with India, – then the UK would tend to specialise in capital-intensive goods, – and India would tend to specialise in labour-intensive products • Comparative advantage may also reflect a relative advantage in technology 12 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 13 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Figure 33.1: Comparative advantage and export composition (125 countries and regional averages) 14 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Gainers and losers • Countries may gain from specialisation and trade – but not all countries may gain equally • Commercial policy – is government policy that influences international trade through taxes or subsidies • e.g. tariffs – or through direct restrictions on imports and exports. 15 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The economic effects of a tariff DD and SS show the domestic demand and supply for a good. SS If the world price is Pw, and there is free trade, domestic firms supply Qs domestic demand is Qd Pw + T Pw and the difference is imported. DD Qs Q s ' Qd' Qd Quantity A tariff can stimulate domestic supply and restrict imports. At a domestic price Pw + T, where T is the size of the tariff. Domestic demand falls to Qd', domestic supply rises to Qs' and imports fall. 16 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The welfare costs of a tariff The tariff leads both to transfers and net social losses. SS The government raises revenue – i.e. there is a transfer to the government Pw + T Pw DD Qs Qs ' and there is a transfer in the form of extra profits to producers. Qd' Qd Quantity There is a social cost from production inefficiency, given that the good could be imported at Pw, and a loss of consumer surplus. 17 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Tariffs • The deadweight burden of a tariff suggests that society suffers from this method of restricting trade. • This is the case for free trade. • Tariffs have fallen substantially under the GATT – General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 18 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 19 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The case for tariffs – good arguments • Optimal tariff – a first-best argument – only valid where the importing country is large enough to affect the world price. • This policy fulfils the principle of targeting – which says that the most efficient way to attain a given objective is to use a policy that influences that activity directly. – Policies that attain the objective, but also influence other activities are second-best, because they distort those other activities. 20 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 The case for tariffs – second-best arguments • Way of life – an attempt to preserve ‘traditional’ ways – a production subsidy would be better • Suppressing luxuries – an attempt to curb consumption patterns of the rich in a poor society – better achieved by a consumption tax • Infant industries – an attempt to nurture new activities via learning by doing – a temporary production subsidy probably better • Revenue – tariffs raise government revenue – but there are better ways • Cheap foreign labour – a non-argument – denies benefits of comparative advantage 21 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 Other commercial policies • Although tariff rates have fallen under GATT, there has been a proliferation of other trade restrictions – quotas – non-tariff barriers • administrative regulations that discriminate against foreign goods – export subsidies 22 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005 An export subsidy Under free trade, with the world price at Pw, S Pw+ s production is Qs B G E Subsidy World price Price Pw A consumers demand Qd exports are GE. With a subsidy, producers produce Qs’ and supply Qd' to the domestic market. Exports now rise to AB. DD Qd' Qd Qs Q`s' Quantity Social costs arise from production inefficiency and the loss of consumer surplus. 23 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005